Choosing a random distribution with prescribed risks

We describe several simulation algorithms that yield random probability distributions with given values of risk measures. In case of vanilla risk measures, the algorithms involve combining and transforming random cumulative distribution functions or random Lorenz curves obtained by simulating rather general random probability distributions on the unit interval. A new algorithm based on the simulation of a weighted barycentres array is suggested to generate random probability distributions with a given value of the spectral risk measure.

Method for the determination of specific molecular markers of biomass burning in lake sediments

Fire has an influence on regional to global atmospheric chemistry and climate. Molecular markers of biomass burning archived in lake sediments are becoming increasingly important in paleoenvironmental reconstruction and may help determine the interaction between climate and fire activity. Here, we present a high performance anion exchange chromatography–mass spectrometry method to allow separation and analysis of levoglucosan, mannosan and galactosan in lake sediments, with implications for reconstructing past biomass burning events. Determining mannosan and galactosan in Lake Kirkpatrick, New Zealand (45.03°S, 168.57°E) sediment cores and comparing these isomers with the more abundant biomass burning markers levoglucosan and charcoal represents a significant advancement in our ability to analyze past fire activity. Levoglucosan, mannosan and galactosan concentrations correlated significantly with macroscopic charcoal concentration. Levoglucosan/mannosan and levoglucosan/(mannosan + galactosan) ratios may help determine not only when fires occurred, but also if changes in the primary burned vegetation occurred.

Contrasting long-term records of biomass burning in wet and dry savannas of equatorial East Africa

Rainfall controls fire in tropical savanna ecosystems through impacting both the amount and flammability of plant biomass, and consequently, predicted changes in tropical precipitation over the next century are likely to have contrasting effects on the fire regimes of wet and dry savannas. We reconstructed the long-term dynamics of biomass burning in equatorial East Africa, using fossil charcoal particles from two well-dated lake-sediment records in western Uganda and central Kenya. We compared these high-resolution (5 years/sample) time series of biomass burning, spanning the last 3800 and 1200 years, with independent data on past hydroclimatic variability and vegetation dynamics. In western Uganda, a rapid (<100 years) and permanent increase in burning occurred around 2170 years ago, when climatic drying replaced semideciduous forest by wooded grassland. At the century time scale, biomass burning was inversely related to moisture balance for much of the next two millennia until ca. 1750 ad, when burning increased strongly despite regional climate becoming wetter. A sustained decrease in burning since the mid20th century reflects the intensified modern-day landscape conversion into cropland and plantations. In contrast, in semiarid central Kenya, biomass burning peaked at intermediate moisture-balance levels, whereas it was lower both during the wettest and driest multidecadal periods of the last 1200 years. Here, burning steadily increased since the mid20th century, presumably due to more frequent deliberate ignitions for bush clearing and cattle ranching. Both the observed historical trends and regional contrasts in biomass burning are consistent with spatial variability in fire regimes across the African savanna biome today. They demonstrate the strong dependence of East African fire regimes on both climatic moisture balance and vegetation, and the extent to which this dependence is now being overridden by anthropogenic activity.

Patient information leaflets: informing or frightening? A focus group study exploring patients' emotional reactions and subsequent behavior towards package leaflets of commonly prescribed medications in family practices.

BACKGROUND The purpose of patient information leaflets (PILs) is to inform patients about the administration, precautions and potential side effects of their prescribed medication. Despite European Commission guidelines aiming at increasing readability and comprehension of PILs little is known about the potential risk information has on patients. This article explores patients' reactions and subsequent behavior towards risk information conveyed in PILs of commonly prescribed drugs by general practitioners (GPs) for the treatment of Type 2 diabetes, hypertension or hypercholesterolemia; the most frequent cause for consultations in family practices in Germany. METHODS We conducted six focus groups comprising 35 patients which were recruited in GP practices. Transcripts were read and coded for themes; categories were created by abstracting data and further refined into a coding framework. RESULTS Three interrelated categories are presented: (i) The vast amount of side effects and drug interactions commonly described in PILs provoke various emotional reactions in patients which (ii) lead to specific patient behavior of which (iii) consulting the GP for assistance is among the most common. Findings show that current description of potential risk information caused feelings of fear and anxiety in the reader resulting in undesirable behavioral reactions. CONCLUSIONS Future PILs need to convey potential risk information in a language that is less frightening while retaining the information content required to make informed decisions about the prescribed medication. Thus, during the production process greater emphasis needs to be placed on testing the degree of emotional arousal provoked in patients when reading risk information to allow them to undertake a benefit-risk-assessment of their medication that is based on rational rather than emotional (fearful) reactions.

Self-burning – A rare suicide method in switzerland and other industrialised nations – A review

News items reporting self-immolation by Tibetans have been on the increase in recent years. After examining the corpse of a Swiss man who had committed suicide by deliberate self-burning, we wondered how often this occurs in Switzerland. The Federal Statistics Office (FSO) does not register self-burning specifically so no official national data on this form of suicide are available. However, we had access to the data from a Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) project Suicides in Switzerland between 2000 and 2010, which collected information on all (4885) cases of suicide investigated by the various institutes of forensic medicine. From this data pool we extracted 50 cases (1.02%) of suicide by selfburning, in order to determine the details and to identify the possible reasons for choosing this method. To look at our results in the light of studies from other countries, we searched the literature for studies that had also retrospectively examined suicide by self-immolation based on forensic records. Our results showed that, on the whole, personal aspects of selfburning in Switzerland do not differ from those in other industrialised nations. Some data, including religious and sociocultural background, were unfortunately missing – not only from our study but also from the similar ones. In our opinion, the most important prevention strategy is to make healthcare professionals more aware of this rare method of suicide.

Holocene biomass burning and global dynamics of the carbon cycle

Fire regimes have changed during the Holocene due to changes in climate, vegetation, and in human practices. Here, we hypothesise that changes in fire regime may have affected the global CO2 concentration in the atmosphere through the Holocene. Our data are based on quantitative reconstructions of biomass burning deduced from stratified charcoal records from Europe, and South-, Central- and North America, and Oceania to test the fire-carbon release hypothesis. In Europe the significant increase of fire activity is dated ≈6000 cal. yr ago. In north-eastern North America burning activity was greatest before 7500 years ago, very low between 7500–3000 years, and has been increasing since 3000 years ago. In tropical America, the pattern is more complex and apparently latitudinally zonal. Maximum burning occurred in the southern Amazon basin and in Central America during the middle Holocene, and during the last 2000 years in the northern Amazon basin. In Oceania, biomass burning has decreased since a maximum 5000 years ago. Biomass burning has broadly increased in the Northern and Southern hemispheres throughout the second half of the Holocene associated with changes in climate and human practices. Global fire indices parallel the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration recorded in Antarctic ice cores. Future issues on carbon dynamics relatively to biomass burning are discussed to improve the quantitative reconstructions.

Comparison of several wood smoke markers and source apportionment methods for wood burning particulate mass

Residential wood combustion has only recently been recognized as a major contributor to air pollution in Switzerland and in other European countries. A source apportionment method using the aethalometer light absorption parameters was applied to five winter campaigns at three sites in Switzerland: a village with high wood combustion activity in winter, an urban background site and a highway site. The particulate mass from traffic (PMtraffic) and wood burning (PMwb) emissions obtained with this model compared fairly well with results from the 14C source apportionment method. PMwb from the model was also compared to well known wood smoke markers such as anhydrosugars (levoglucosan and mannosan) and fine mode potassium, as well as to a marker recently suggested from the Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer (mass fragment m/z 60). Additionally the anhydrosugars were compared to the 14C results and were shown to be comparable to literature values from wood burning emission studies using different types of wood (hardwood, softwood). The levoglucosan to PMwb ratios varied much more strongly between the different campaigns (4–13%) compared to mannosan to PMwb with a range of 1–1.5%. Possible uncertainty aspects for the various methods and markers are discussed.

Historic records of organic compounds from a high Alpine glacier: influences of biomass burning, anthropogenic emissions, and dust transport

Historic records of α-dicarbonyls (glyoxal, methylglyoxal), carboxylic acids (C6–C12 dicarboxylic acids, pinic acid, p-hydroxybenzoic acid, phthalic acid, 4-methylphthalic acid), and ions (oxalate, formate, calcium) were determined with annual resolution in an ice core from Grenzgletscher in the southern Swiss Alps, covering the time period from 1942 to 1993. Chemical analysis of the organic compounds was conducted using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography (UHPLC) coupled to electrospray ionization high-resolution mass spectrometry (ESI-HRMS) for dicarbonyls and long-chain carboxylic acids and ion chromatography for short-chain carboxylates. Long-term records of the carboxylic acids and dicarbonyls, as well as their source apportionment, are reported for western Europe. This is the first study comprising long-term trends of dicarbonyls and long-chain dicarboxylic acids (C6–C12) in Alpine precipitation. Source assignment of the organic species present in the ice core was performed using principal component analysis. Our results suggest biomass burning, anthropogenic emissions, and transport of mineral dust to be the main parameters influencing the concentration of organic compounds. Ice core records of several highly correlated compounds (e.g., p-hydroxybenzoic acid, pinic acid, pimelic, and suberic acids) can be related to the forest fire history in southern Switzerland. P-hydroxybenzoic acid was found to be the best organic fire tracer in the study area, revealing the highest correlation with the burned area from fires. Historical records of methylglyoxal, phthalic acid, and dicarboxylic acids adipic acid, sebacic acid, and dodecanedioic acid are comparable with that of anthropogenic emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). The small organic acids, oxalic acid and formic acid, are both highly correlated with calcium, suggesting their records to be affected by changing mineral dust transport to the drilling site.