48 resultados para Prediction Models for Air Pollution


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BACKGROUND: Fever in severe chemotherapy-induced neutropenia (FN) is the most frequent manifestation of a potentially lethal complication of current intensive chemotherapy regimens. This study aimed at establishing models predicting the risk of FN, and of FN with bacteremia, in pediatric cancer patients. METHODS: In a single-centre cohort study, characteristics potentially associated with FN and episodes of FN were retrospectively extracted from charts. Poisson regression accounting for chemotherapy exposure time was used for analysis. Prediction models were constructed based on a derivation set of two thirds of observations, and validated based on the remaining third of observations. RESULTS: In 360 pediatric cancer patients diagnosed and treated for a cumulative chemotherapy exposure time of 424 years, 629 FN were recorded (1.48 FN per patient per year, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.37-1.61), 145 of them with bacteremia (23% of FN; 0.34; 0.29-0.40). More intensive chemotherapy, shorter time since diagnosis, bone marrow involvement, central venous access device (CVAD), and prior FN were significantly and independently associated with a higher risk to develop both FN and FN with bacteremia. The prediction models explained more than 30% of the respective risks. CONCLUSIONS: The two models predicting FN and FN with bacteremia were based on five easily accessible clinical variables. Before clinical application, they need to be validated by prospective studies.

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Rapid industrialization and urbanization in developing countries has led to an increase in air pollution, along a similar trajectory to that previously experienced by the developed nations. In China, particulate pollution is a serious environmental problem that is influencing air quality, regional and global climates, and human health. In response to the extremely severe and persistent haze pollution experienced by about 800 million people during the first quarter of 2013 (refs 4, 5), the Chinese State Council announced its aim to reduce concentrations of PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5micrometres) by up to 25 per cent relative to 2012 levels by 2017 (ref. 6). Such efforts however require elucidation of the factors governing the abundance and composition of PM2.5, which remain poorly constrained in China. Here we combine a comprehensive set of novel and state-of-the-art offline analytical approaches and statistical techniques to investigate the chemical nature and sources of particulate matter at urban locations in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Xi'an during January 2013. We find that the severe haze pollution event was driven to a large extent by secondary aerosol formation, which contributed 30-77 per cent and 44-71 per cent (average for all four cities) of PM2.5 and of organic aerosol, respectively. On average, the contribution of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) are found to be of similar importance (SOA/SIA ratios range from 0.6 to 1.4). Our results suggest that, in addition to mitigating primary particulate emissions, reducing the emissions of secondary aerosol precursors from, for example, fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning is likely to be important for controlling China's PM2.5 levels and for reducing the environmental, economic and health impacts resulting from particulate pollution.

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Four different literature parameterizations for the formation and evolution of urban secondary organic aerosol (SOA) frequently used in 3-D models are evaluated using a 0-D box model representing the Los Angeles metropolitan region during the California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change (CalNex) 2010 campaign. We constrain the model predictions with measurements from several platforms and compare predictions with particle- and gas-phase observations from the CalNex Pasadena ground site. That site provides a unique opportunity to study aerosol formation close to anthropogenic emission sources with limited recirculation. The model SOA that formed only from the oxidation of VOCs (V-SOA) is insufficient to explain the observed SOA concentrations, even when using SOA parameterizations with multi-generation oxidation that produce much higher yields than have been observed in chamber experiments, or when increasing yields to their upper limit estimates accounting for recently reported losses of vapors to chamber walls. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model (version 5.0.1) provides excellent predictions of secondary inorganic particle species but underestimates the observed SOA mass by a factor of 25 when an older VOC-only parameterization is used, which is consistent with many previous model–measurement comparisons for pre-2007 anthropogenic SOA modules in urban areas. Including SOA from primary semi-volatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds (P-S/IVOCs) following the parameterizations of Robinson et al. (2007), Grieshop et al. (2009), or Pye and Seinfeld (2010) improves model–measurement agreement for mass concentration. The results from the three parameterizations show large differences (e.g., a factor of 3 in SOA mass) and are not well constrained, underscoring the current uncertainties in this area. Our results strongly suggest that other precursors besides VOCs, such as P-S/IVOCs, are needed to explain the observed SOA concentrations in Pasadena. All the recent parameterizations overpredict urban SOA formation at long photochemical ages (3 days) compared to observations from multiple sites, which can lead to problems in regional and especially global modeling. However, reducing IVOC emissions by one-half in the model to better match recent IVOC measurements improves SOA predictions at these long photochemical ages. Among the explicitly modeled VOCs, the precursor compounds that contribute the greatest SOA mass are methylbenzenes. Measured polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (naphthalenes) contribute 0.7% of the modeled SOA mass. The amounts of SOA mass from diesel vehicles, gasoline vehicles, and cooking emissions are estimated to be 16–27, 35–61, and 19–35 %, respectively, depending on the parameterization used, which is consistent with the observed fossil fraction of urban SOA, 71(+-3) %. The relative contribution of each source is uncertain by almost a factor of 2 depending on the parameterization used. In-basin biogenic VOCs are predicted to contribute only a few percent to SOA. A regional SOA background of approximately 2.1 μgm-3 is also present due to the long-distance transport of highly aged OA, likely with a substantial contribution from regional biogenic SOA. The percentage of SOA from diesel vehicle emissions is the same, within the estimated uncertainty, as reported in previous work that analyzed the weekly cycles in OA concentrations (Bahreini et al., 2012; Hayes et al., 2013). However, the modeling work presented here suggests a strong anthropogenic source of modern carbon in SOA, due to cooking emissions, which was not accounted for in those previous studies and which is higher on weekends. Lastly, this work adapts a simple two-parameter model to predict SOA concentration and O/C from urban emissions. This model successfully predicts SOA concentration, and the optimal parameter combination is very similar to that found for Mexico City. This approach provides a computationally inexpensive method for predicting urban SOA in global and climate models. We estimate pollution SOA to account for 26 Tg yr-1 of SOA globally, or 17% of global SOA, one third of which is likely to be non-fossil.

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A detailed characterization of air quality in the megacity of Paris (France) during two 1-month intensive campaigns and from additional 1-year observations revealed that about 70% of the urban background fine particulate matter (PM) is transported on average into the megacity from upwind regions. This dominant influence of regional sources was confirmed by in situ measurements during short intensive and longer-term campaigns, aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from ENVISAT, and modeling results from PMCAMx and CHIMERE chemistry transport models. While advection of sulfate is well documented for other megacities, there was surprisingly high contribution from long-range transport for both nitrate and organic aerosol. The origin of organic PM was investigated by comprehensive analysis of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS), radiocarbon and tracer measurements during two intensive campaigns. Primary fossil fuel combustion emissions constituted less than 20%in winter and 40%in summer of carbonaceous fine PM, unexpectedly small for a megacity. Cooking activities and, during winter, residential wood burning are the major primary organic PM sources. This analysis suggests that the major part of secondary organic aerosol is of modern origin, i.e., from biogenic precursors and from wood burning. Black carbon concentrations are on the lower end of values encountered in megacities worldwide, but still represent an issue for air quality. These comparatively low air pollution levels are due to a combination of low emissions per inhabitant, flat terrain, and a meteorology that is in general not conducive to local pollution build-up. This revised picture of a megacity only being partially responsible for its own average and peak PM levels has important implications for air pollution regulation policies.

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BACKGROUND Zebrafish is a clinically-relevant model of heart regeneration. Unlike mammals, it has a remarkable heart repair capacity after injury, and promises novel translational applications. Amputation and cryoinjury models are key research tools for understanding injury response and regeneration in vivo. An understanding of the transcriptional responses following injury is needed to identify key players of heart tissue repair, as well as potential targets for boosting this property in humans. RESULTS We investigated amputation and cryoinjury in vivo models of heart damage in the zebrafish through unbiased, integrative analyses of independent molecular datasets. To detect genes with potential biological roles, we derived computational prediction models with microarray data from heart amputation experiments. We focused on a top-ranked set of genes highly activated in the early post-injury stage, whose activity was further verified in independent microarray datasets. Next, we performed independent validations of expression responses with qPCR in a cryoinjury model. Across in vivo models, the top candidates showed highly concordant responses at 1 and 3 days post-injury, which highlights the predictive power of our analysis strategies and the possible biological relevance of these genes. Top candidates are significantly involved in cell fate specification and differentiation, and include heart failure markers such as periostin, as well as potential new targets for heart regeneration. For example, ptgis and ca2 were overexpressed, while usp2a, a regulator of the p53 pathway, was down-regulated in our in vivo models. Interestingly, a high activity of ptgis and ca2 has been previously observed in failing hearts from rats and humans. CONCLUSIONS We identified genes with potential critical roles in the response to cardiac damage in the zebrafish. Their transcriptional activities are reproducible in different in vivo models of cardiac injury.

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The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) carried on board the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Meteorological Operational Satellite (MetOp) polar orbiting satellites is the only instrument offering more than 25 years of satellite data to analyse aerosols on a daily basis. The present study assessed a modified AVHRR aerosol optical depth τa retrieval over land for Europe. The algorithm might also be applied to other parts of the world with similar surface characteristics like Europe, only the aerosol properties would have to be adapted to a new region. The initial approach used a relationship between Sun photometer measurements from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and the satellite data to post-process the retrieved τa. Herein a quasi-stand-alone procedure, which is more suitable for the pre-AERONET era, is presented. In addition, the estimation of surface reflectance, the aerosol model, and other processing steps have been adapted. The method's cross-platform applicability was tested by validating τa from NOAA-17 and NOAA-18 AVHRR at 15 AERONET sites in Central Europe (40.5° N–50° N, 0° E–17° E) from August 2005 to December 2007. Furthermore, the accuracy of the AVHRR retrieval was related to products from two newer instruments, the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) on board the Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board Aqua/Terra. Considering the linear correlation coefficient R, the AVHRR results were similar to those of MERIS with even lower root mean square error RMSE. Not surprisingly, MODIS, with its high spectral coverage, gave the highest R and lowest RMSE. Regarding monthly averaged τa, the results were ambiguous. Focusing on small-scale structures, R was reduced for all sensors, whereas the RMSE solely for MERIS substantially increased. Regarding larger areas like Central Europe, the error statistics were similar to the individual match-ups. This was mainly explained with sampling issues. With the successful validation of AVHRR we are now able to concentrate on our large data archive dating back to 1985. This is a unique opportunity for both climate and air pollution studies over land surfaces.

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Low mol. wt. (LMW) org. acids are important and ubiquitous chem. constituents in the atm. A comprehensive study of the chem. compn. of pptn. was carried out from June 2007 to June 2008 at a rural site in Anshun, in the west of Guizhou Province, China. During this period, 118 rainwater samples were collected and the main LMW carboxylic acids were detd. using ion chromatog. The av. pH of rainwater was 4.89 which is a typical acidic value. The most abundant carboxylic acids were formic acid (vol. wt. mean concn.: 8.77 μmol L-1) and acetic acid (6.90 μmol L-1), followed by oxalic acid (2.05 μmol L-1). The seasonal variation of concns. and wet deposition fluxes of org. acids indicated that direct vegetation emissions were the main sources of the org. acids. Highest concns. were obsd. in winter and were ascribed to the low winter rainfall and the contribution of other air pollution sources northeast of the study area. The ratio of formic and acetic acids in the pptn. ([F/A]T) was proposed as an indicator of pollution source. This suggested that the pollution resulted from direct emissions from natural or anthropogenic sources. Comparison with acid pptn. in other urban and rural areas in Guizhou showed that there was a decreasing contribution of LMW org. acids to free acidity and all anions in rainwater from urban to remote rural areas. Consequently, it is necessary to control emissions of org. acids to reduce the frequency of acid rain, esp. in rural and remote areas. [on SciFinder(R)]

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BACKGROUND: Individual adaptation of processed patient's blood volume (PBV) should reduce number and/or duration of autologous peripheral blood progenitor cell (PBPC) collections. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The durations of leukapheresis procedures were adapted by means of an interim analysis of harvested CD34+ cells to obtain the intended yield of CD34+ within as few and/or short as possible leukapheresis procedures. Absolute efficiency (AE; CD34+/kg body weight) and relative efficiency (RE; total CD34+ yield of single apheresis/total number of preapheresis CD34+) were calculated, assuming an intraapheresis recruitment if RE was greater than 1, and a yield prediction models for adults was generated. RESULTS: A total of 196 adults required a total of 266 PBPC collections. The median AE was 7.99 x 10(6), and the median RE was 1.76. The prediction model for AE showed a satisfactory predictive value for preapheresis CD34+ only. The prediction model for RE also showed a low predictive value (R2 = 0.36). Twenty-eight children underwent 44 PBPC collections. The median AE was 12.13 x 10(6), and the median RE was 1.62. Major complications comprised bleeding episodes related to central venous catheters (n = 4) and severe thrombocytopenia of less than 10 x 10(9) per L (n = 16). CONCLUSION: A CD34+ interim analysis is a suitable tool for individual adaptation of the duration of leukapheresis. During leukapheresis, a substantial recruitment of CD34+ was observed, resulting in a RE of greater than 1 in more than 75 percent of patients. The upper limit of processed PBV showing an intraapheresis CD34+ recruitment is higher than in a standard large-volume leukapheresis. Therefore, a reduction of individually needed PBPC collections by means of a further escalation of the processed PBV seems possible.

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OBJECTIVES: To validate the Probability of Repeated Admission (Pra) questionnaire, a widely used self-administered tool for predicting future healthcare use in older persons, in three European healthcare systems. DESIGN: Prospective study with 1-year follow-up. SETTING: Hamburg, Germany; London, United Kingdom; Canton of Solothurn, Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Nine thousand seven hundred thirteen independently living community-dwelling people aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Self-administered eight-item Pra questionnaire at baseline. Self-reported number of hospital admissions and physician visits during 1 year of follow-up. RESULTS: In the combined sample, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.62-0.66) for the prediction of one or more hospital admissions and 0.68 (95% CI=0.66-0.69) for the prediction of more than six physician visits during the following year. AUCs were similar between sites. In comparison, prediction models based on a person's age and sex alone exhibited poor predictive validity (AUC or= 0.5) were 2.3 times as likely (95% CI=2.1-2.6) as low-risk individuals to have a hospital admission, and 2.1 times as likely (95% CI=2.0-2.2) to have more than six physician visits. CONCLUSION: The Pra instrument exhibits good validity for predicting future health service use on a population level in different healthcare settings. Administrative data have shown similar predictive validity, but in practice, such data are often not available. The Pra is likely of high interest to governments and health insurance companies worldwide as a basis for programs aimed at health risk management in older persons.

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ABSTRACT: Particulate air pollution has been associated with respiratory and cardiovascular disease. Evidence for cardiovascular and neurodegenerative effects of ambient particles was reviewed as part of a workshop. The purpose of this critical update is to summarize the evidence presented for the mechanisms involved in the translocation of particles from the lung to other organs and to highlight the potential of particles to cause neurodegenerative effects.Fine and ultrafine particles, after deposition on the surfactant film at the air-liquid interface, are displaced by surface forces exerted on them by surfactant film and may then interact with primary target cells upon this displacement. Ultrafine and fine particles can then penetrate through the different tissue compartments of the lungs and eventually reach the capillaries and circulating cells or constituents, e.g. erythrocytes. These particles are then translocated by the circulation to other organs including the liver, the spleen, the kidneys, the heart and the brain, where they may be deposited. It remains to be shown by which mechanisms ultrafine particles penetrate through pulmonary tissue and enter capillaries. In addition to translocation of ultrafine particles through the tissue, fine and coarse particles may be phagocytized by macrophages and dendritic cells which may carry the particles to lymph nodes in the lung or to those closely associated with the lungs. There is the potential for neurodegenerative consequence of particle entry to the brain. Histological evidence of neurodegeneration has been reported in both canine and human brains exposed to high ambient PM levels, suggesting the potential for neurotoxic consequences of PM-CNS entry. PM mediated damage may be caused by the oxidative stress pathway. Thus, oxidative stress due to nutrition, age, genetics among others may increase the susceptibility for neurodegenerative diseases. The relationship between PM exposure and CNS degeneration can also be detected under controlled experimental conditions. Transgenic mice (Apo E -/-), known to have high base line levels of oxidative stress, were exposed by inhalation to well characterized, concentrated ambient air pollution. Morphometric analysis of the CNS indicated unequivocally that the brain is a critical target for PM exposure and implicated oxidative stress as a predisposing factor that links PM exposure and susceptibility to neurodegeneration.Together, these data present evidence for potential translocation of ambient particles on organs distant from the lung and the neurodegenerative consequences of exposure to air pollutants.

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There is increasing evidence that air pollution particularly affects infants and small preschool children. However, detecting air pollution effects on lung function in small children is technically difficult and requires non-invasive methods that can assess lung function and inflammatory markers in larger cohorts. This review discusses the principles, usefulness and shortcomings of various lung function techniques used to detect pollution effects in small children. The majority of these techniques have been used to detect effects of the dominant indoor pollutant, tobacco exposure. However there is increasing evidence that non-invasive lung function techniques can also detect the effects of outdoor air pollution.

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Anthropogenic nano-sized particles (NSP), ie, particles with a diameter of less than 100 nm, are generated with or without purpose as chemically and physically well-defined materials or as a consequence of combustion processes respectively. Inhalation of NSP occurs on a regular basis due to air pollution and is associated with an increase in respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Manufactured NSP may intentionally be inhaled as pharmaceuticals or unintentionally during production at the workplace. Hence the interactions of NSP with the respiratory tract are currently under intensive investigation. Due to special physicochemical features of NSP, its biological behaviour may differ from that of larger sized particles. Here we review two important themes of current research into the effects of NSP on the lungs: 1) The potential of NSP to cross the blood-air barrier of the lungs, thus gaining access to the circulation and extrapulmonary organs. It is currently accepted that a small fraction of inhaled NSP may translocate to the circulation. The significance of this translocation requires further research. 2) The entering mechanisms of NSP into different cell types. There is evidence that NSP are taken up by cells via well-known pathways of endocytosis but also via different mechanisms not well understood so far. Knowledge of the quantitative relationship between the different entering mechanisms and cellular responses is not yet available but is urgently needed in order to understand the effects of intentionally or unintentionally inhaled NSP on the respiratory tract.

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PURPOSE: The goal of this study was to analyse a possible association of admission blood glucose with hospital mortality of polytraumatised patients and to develop an outcome prediction model for this patient group. METHODS: The outcome of adult polytraumatised patients admitted to the University Hospital of Berne, Switzerland, between 2002 and 2004 with an ISS > or = 17, and more than one severely injured organ system was retrospectively analysed. RESULTS: The inclusion criteria were met by 555 patients, of which 108 (19.5%) died. Hyperglycaemia proved to be an independent predictor for hospital mortality (P < 0.0001), following multiple regression analysis. After inclusion of admission blood glucose, the calculated mortality prediction model performed better than currently described models (P < 0.0001, AUC 0.924). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective, single-centre study in polytraumatised patients, admission blood glucose proved to be an independent predictor of hospital mortality following regression analysis controlling for age, gender, injury severity and other laboratory parameters. A reliable admission blood glucose-based mortality prediction model for polytraumatised patients could be established. This observation may be helpful in improving the precision of future outcome prediction models for polytraumatised patients. These observations warrant further prospective evaluation.

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PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In recent years, many epidemiological studies have given new insights into old and new lifestyle factors that influence the risk of cerebrovascular events. In this review, we refer to the most important articles to highlight recent advances, especially those important for stroke prevention. RECENT FINDINGS: This review focuses on the most recent studies that show the association of environmental factors, nutrition, alcohol, tobacco, education, lifestyle and behavior with the risk of vascular disease, including ischemic stroke and cerebral hemorrhage. The link between air pollution and stroke risk has become evident. Low education levels and depression are established as risk factors. This is also true for heavy alcohol consumption, although moderate drinking may be protective. Active and passive smoking are independent risk factors, and a smoking ban in public places has already reduced cardiovascular events in the short term. Physical activity reduces stroke risk; overweight increases it. However, clinical trials to assess the effect of weight reduction on stroke risk are still lacking. Fruits, vegetables, fish, fibers, low-fat dairy products, potassium and low sodium consumption are known and recommended to reduce cardiovascular risk. Data on omega 3 fatty acid, folic acid and B vitamins are inconsistent, and antioxidants are not recommended. SUMMARY: Stroke can be substantially reduced by an active lifestyle, cessation of smoking and a healthy diet. Both public and professional education should promote the awareness that a healthy lifestyle and nutrition have the potential to reduce the burden of stroke.

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CONTEXT: Pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) is considered the most reliable procedure for the detection of lymph node metastases in prostate cancer (PCa); however, the therapeutic benefit of PLND in PCa management is currently under debate. OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the available literature concerning the role of PLND and its extent in PCa staging and outcome. All of the existing recommendations and staging tools determining the need for PLND were also assessed. Moreover, a systematic review was performed of the long-term outcome of node-positive patients stratified according to the extent of nodal invasion. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: A Medline search was conducted to identify original and review articles as well as editorials addressing the significance of PLND in PCa. Keywords included prostate cancer, pelvic lymph node dissection, radical prostatectomy, imaging, and complications. Data from the selected studies focussing on the role of PLND in PCa staging and outcome were reviewed and discussed by all of the contributing authors. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Despite recent advances in imaging techniques, PLND remains the most accurate staging procedure for the detection of lymph node invasion (LNI) in PCa. The rate of LNI increases with the extent of PLND. Extended PLND (ePLND; ie, removal of obturator, external iliac, hypogastric with or without presacral and common iliac nodes) significantly improves the detection of lymph node metastases compared with limited PLND (lPLND; ie, removal of obturator with or without external iliac nodes), which is associated with poor staging accuracy. Because not all patients with PCa are at the same risk of harbouring nodal metastases, several nomograms and tables have been developed and validated to identify candidates for PLND. These tools, however, are based mostly on findings derived from lPLND dissections performed in older patient series. According to these prediction models, a staging PLND might be omitted in low-risk PCa patients because of the low rate of lymph node metastases found, even after extended dissections (<8%). The outcome for patients with positive nodes is not necessarily poor. Indeed, patients with low-volume nodal metastases experience excellent survival rates, regardless of adjuvant treatment. But despite few retrospective studies reporting an association between PLND and PCa progression and survival, the exact impact of PLND on patient outcomes has not yet been clearly proven because of the lack of prospective randomised trials. CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of current data, we suggest that if a PLND is indicated, then it should be extended. Conversely, in view of the low rate of LNI among patients with low-risk PCa, a staging ePLND might be spared in this patient category. Whether this approach is also safe from oncologic perspectives is still unknown. Patients with low-volume nodal metastases have a good long-term prognosis; to what extent this prognosis is the result of a positive impact of PLND on PCa outcomes is still to be determined.