Evolutionary history and global spread of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing lineage.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains of the Beijing lineage are globally distributed and are associated with the massive spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis in Eurasia. Here we reconstructed the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this lineage by genetic analysis of 4,987 isolates from 99 countries and whole-genome sequencing of 110 representative isolates. We show that this lineage initially originated in the Far East, from where it radiated worldwide in several waves. We detected successive increases in population size for this pathogen over the last 200 years, practically coinciding with the Industrial Revolution, the First World War and HIV epidemics. Two MDR clones of this lineage started to spread throughout central Asia and Russia concomitantly with the collapse of the public health system in the former Soviet Union. Mutations identified in genes putatively under positive selection and associated with virulence might have favored the expansion of the most successful branches of the lineage.

Sexual selection and speciation: the comparative evidence revisited

The spectacular diversity in sexually selected traits in the animal kingdom has inspired the hypothesis that sexual selection can promote species divergence. In recent years, several studies have attempted to test this idea by correlating species richness with estimates of sexual selection across phylogenies. These studies have yielded mixed results and it remains unclear whether the comparative evidence can be taken as generally supportive. Here, we conduct a meta-analysis of the comparative evidence and find a small but significant positive overall correlation between sexual selection and speciation rate. However, we also find that effect size estimates are influenced by methodological choices. Analyses that included deeper phylogenetic nodes yielded weaker correlations, and different proxies for sexual selection showed different relationships with species richness. We discuss the biological and methodological implications of these findings. We argue that progress requires more representative sampling and justification of chosen proxies for sexual selection and speciation rate, as well as more mechanistic approaches.

Isolated autosomal dominant growth hormone deficiency: stimulating mutant GH-1 gene expression drives GH-1 splice-site selection, cell proliferation, and apoptosis

The majority of mutations that cause isolated GH deficiency type II (IGHD II) affect splicing of GH-1 transcripts and produce a dominant-negative GH isoform lacking exon 3 resulting in a 17.5-kDa isoform, which further leads to disruption of the GH secretory pathway. A clinical variability in the severity of the IGHD II phenotype depending on the GH-1 gene alteration has been reported, and in vitro and transgenic animal data suggest that the onset and severity of the phenotype relates to the proportion of 17.5-kDa produced. The removal of GH in IGHD creates a positive feedback loop driving more GH expression, which may itself increase 17.5-kDa isoform productions from alternate splice sites in the mutated GH-1 allele. In this study, we aimed to test this idea by comparing the impact of stimulated expression by glucocorticoids on the production of different GH isoforms from wild-type (wt) and mutant GH-1 genes, relying on the glucocorticoid regulatory element within intron 1 in the GH-1 gene. AtT-20 cells were transfected with wt-GH or mutated GH-1 variants (5'IVS-3 + 2-bp T->C; 5'IVS-3 + 6 bp T->C; ISEm1: IVS-3 + 28 G->A) known to cause clinical IGHD II of varying severity. Cells were stimulated with 1 and 10 mum dexamethasone (DEX) for 24 h, after which the relative amounts of GH-1 splice variants were determined by semiquantitative and quantitative (TaqMan) RT-PCR. In the absence of DEX, only around 1% wt-GH-1 transcripts were the 17.5-kDa isoform, whereas the three mutant GH-1 variants produced 29, 39, and 78% of the 17.5-kDa isoform. DEX stimulated total GH-1 gene transcription from all constructs. Notably, however, DEX increased the amount of 17.5-kDa GH isoform relative to the 22- and 20-kDa isoforms produced from the mutated GH-1 variants, but not from wt-GH-1. This DEX-induced enhancement of 17.5-kDa GH isoform production, up to 100% in the most severe case, was completely blocked by the addition of RU486. In other studies, we measured cell proliferation rates, annexin V staining, and DNA fragmentation in cells transfected with the same GH-1 constructs. The results showed that that the 5'IVS-3 + 2-bp GH-1 gene mutation had a more severe impact on those measures than the splice site mutations within 5'IVS-3 + 6 bp or ISE +28, in line with the clinical severity observed with these mutations. Our findings that the proportion of 17.5-kDa produced from mutant GH-1 alleles increases with increased drive for gene expression may help to explain the variable onset progression, and severity observed in IGHD II.

Selection and influence effects in defending a victim of bullying: The moderating effects of school context

In this paper we examined whether defenders of victims of school bullying befriended similar peers, and whether the similarity is due to selection or influence processes or both. We examined whether these processes result in different degrees of similarity between peers depending on teachers’ self-efficacy and the school climate. We analyzed longitudinal data of 478 Swiss school students employing actor-based stochastic models. Our analyses showed that similarity in defending behavior among friends was due to selection rather than influence. The extent to which adolescents selected peers showing similar defending behavior was related to contextual factors. In fact, lower self-efficacy of teachers and positive school climate were associated with increased selection effects in terms of defending behavior.

Positive effect of the yellow morph on female reproductive success in the flower colour polymorphic Iris lutescens (Iridaceae), a deceptive species

The deceptive Iris lutescens (Iridaceae) shows a heritable and striking flower colour polymorphism, with both yellow- and purple-flowered individuals growing sympatrically. Deceptive species with flower colour polymorphism are mainly described in the family Orchidaceae and rarely found in other families. To explain the maintenance of flower colour polymorphism in I.lutescens, we investigated female reproductive success in natural populations of southern France, at both population and local scales (within populations). Female reproductive success was positively correlated with yellow morph frequency, at both the population scale and the local scale. Therefore, we failed to observe negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS), a mechanism commonly invoked to explain flower colour polymorphism in deceptive plant species. Flower size and local flower density could also affect female reproductive success in natural populations. Pollinator behaviour could explain the positive effect of the yellow morph, and our results suggest that flower colour polymorphism might not persist in I.lutescens, but alternative explanations not linked to pollinator behaviour are discussed. In particular, NFDS, although an appealingly simple explanation previously demonstrated in orchids, may not always contribute to maintaining flower colour polymorphism, even in deceptive species.

Prevalence and prognostic significance of TMPRSS2-ERG gene fusion in lymph node positive prostate cancers.

BACKGROUND TMPRSS2-ERG gene fusion is the most frequent genetic alteration in prostate cancer. However, information about its distribution in lymph node positive prostate cancers and the prognostic significance in these advanced tumors is unknown. METHODS Gene fusion status was determined by fluorescence in situ hybridization on a tissue-microarray constructed from 119 hormone-naïve nodal positive, surgically treated prostate cancers containing samples from the primary tumors and corresponding lymph node metastases. Data were correlated with various tumor features (Gleason score, stage, cancer volume, nodal tumor burden) and biochemical recurrence-free, disease-specific, and overall survival. RESULTS TMPRSS2-ERG fusion was detected in 43.5% of the primary tumors. Conversely, only 29.9% of the metastasizing components showed the fusion. Concordance in TMPRSS2-ERG status between primary tumors and metastases was 70.9% (Kappa 0.39); 20.9% and 8.1% of the patients showed the mutation solely in their primary tumors and metastases, respectively. TMPRSS2-ERG fusion was not correlated with specific histopathological tumor features but predicted favorable biochemical recurrence-free, disease-specific and overall survival independently when present in the primary tumor (P < 0.05 each). CONCLUSION TMPRSS2-ERG fusion is more frequent in primary prostate cancer than in corresponding metastases suggesting no selection of fusion-positive cells in the metastatic process. The gene fusion in primary tumors independently predicts favorable outcome.

Minimally invasive surgery when treating endometriosis has a positive effect on health and on quality of work life of affected women

STUDY QUESTION: What is the effect of the minimally invasive surgical treatment of endometriosis on health and on quality of work life (e.g. working performance) of affected women? SUMMARY ANSWER: Absence from work, performance loss and the general negative impact of endometriosis on the job are reduced significantly by the laparoscopic surgery. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The benefits of surgery overall and of the laparoscopic method in particular for treating endometriosis have been described before. However, previous studies focus on medical benchmarks without including the patient's perspective in a quantitative manner. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A retrospective questionnaire-based survey covering 211 women with endometriosis and a history of specific laparoscopic surgery in a Swiss university hospital, tertiary care center. Data were returned anonymously and were collected from the beginning of 2012 until March 2013. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Women diagnosed with endometriosis and with at least one specific laparoscopic surgery in the past were enrolled in the study. The study investigated the effect of the minimally invasive surgery on health and on quality of work life of affected women. Questions used were obtained from the World Endometriosis Research Foundation (WERF) Global Study on Women's Health (GSWH) instrument. The questionnaire was shortened and adapted for the purpose of the present study. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Of the 587 women invited to participate in the study, 232 (232/587 = 40%) returned the questionnaires. Twenty-one questionnaires were excluded due to incomplete data and 211 sets (211/587 = 36%) were included in the study. Our data show that 62% (n = 130) of the study population declared endometriosis as influencing the job during the period prior to surgery, compared with 28% after surgery (P < 0.001). The mean (maximal) absence from work due to endometriosis was reduced from 2.0 (4.9) to 0.5 (1.4) hours per week (P < 0.001). The mean (maximal) loss in working performance after the surgery averaged out at 5.7% (12.6%) compared with 17.5% (30.5%) before this treatment (P < 0.001). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The mediocre response rate of the study weakens the representativeness of the investigated population. Considering the anonymous setting a non-responder investigation was not performed. A bias due to selection, information and negativity effects within a retrospective survey cannot be excluded, although study-sensitive questions were provided in multiple ways. The absence of a control group (sham group; e.g. patients undergoing specific diagnostic laparoscopy without treatment) is a further limitation of the study. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our study shows that indicated minimally invasive surgery has a clear positive effect on the wellbeing and working performance of women suffering from moderate to severe endometriosis. Furthermore, national net savings in indirect costs with the present number of surgeries is estimated to be €10.7 million per year. In an idealized setting (i.e. without any diagnosis delay) this figure could be more than doubled. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: The study was performed on behalf of the University Hospital of Bern (Inselspital) as one of the leading Swiss tertiary care centers. The authors do not declare any competing interests.

Bargaining for power and information : an experimental and theoretical analysis of the interaction between institutions, externalities and adverse selection

Bargaining is the building block of many economic interactions, ranging from bilateral to multilateral encounters and from situations in which the actors are individuals to negotiations between firms or countries. In all these settings, economists have been intrigued for a long time by the fact that some projects, trades or agreements are not realized even though they are mutually beneficial. On the one hand, this has been explained by incomplete information. A firm may not be willing to offer a wage that is acceptable to a qualified worker, because it knows that there are also unqualified workers and cannot distinguish between the two types. This phenomenon is known as adverse selection. On the other hand, it has been argued that even with complete information, the presence of externalities may impede efficient outcomes. To see this, consider the example of climate change. If a subset of countries agrees to curb emissions, non-participant regions benefit from the signatories’ efforts without incurring costs. These free riding opportunities give rise to incentives to strategically improve ones bargaining power that work against the formation of a global agreement. This thesis is concerned with extending our understanding of both factors, adverse selection and externalities. The findings are based on empirical evidence from original laboratory experiments as well as game theoretic modeling. On a very general note, it is demonstrated that the institutions through which agents interact matter to a large extent. Insights are provided about which institutions we should expect to perform better than others, at least in terms of aggregate welfare. Chapters 1 and 2 focus on the problem of adverse selection. Effective operation of markets and other institutions often depends on good information transmission properties. In terms of the example introduced above, a firm is only willing to offer high wages if it receives enough positive signals about the worker’s quality during the application and wage bargaining process. In Chapter 1, it will be shown that repeated interaction coupled with time costs facilitates information transmission. By making the wage bargaining process costly for the worker, the firm is able to obtain more accurate information about the worker’s type. The cost could be pure time cost from delaying agreement or cost of effort arising from a multi-step interviewing process. In Chapter 2, I abstract from time cost and show that communication can play a similar role. The simple fact that a worker states to be of high quality may be informative. In Chapter 3, the focus is on a different source of inefficiency. Agents strive for bargaining power and thus may be motivated by incentives that are at odds with the socially efficient outcome. I have already mentioned the example of climate change. Other examples are coalitions within committees that are formed to secure voting power to block outcomes or groups that commit to different technological standards although a single standard would be optimal (e.g. the format war between HD and BlueRay). It will be shown that such inefficiencies are directly linked to the presence of externalities and a certain degree of irreversibility in actions. I now discuss the three articles in more detail. In Chapter 1, Olivier Bochet and I study a simple bilateral bargaining institution that eliminates trade failures arising from incomplete information. In this setting, a buyer makes offers to a seller in order to acquire a good. Whenever an offer is rejected by the seller, the buyer may submit a further offer. Bargaining is costly, because both parties suffer a (small) time cost after any rejection. The difficulties arise, because the good can be of low or high quality and the quality of the good is only known to the seller. Indeed, without the possibility to make repeated offers, it is too risky for the buyer to offer prices that allow for trade of high quality goods. When allowing for repeated offers, however, at equilibrium both types of goods trade with probability one. We provide an experimental test of these predictions. Buyers gather information about sellers using specific price offers and rates of trade are high, much as the model’s qualitative predictions. We also observe a persistent over-delay before trade occurs, and this mitigates efficiency substantially. Possible channels for over-delay are identified in the form of two behavioral assumptions missing from the standard model, loss aversion (buyers) and haggling (sellers), which reconcile the data with the theoretical predictions. Chapter 2 also studies adverse selection, but interaction between buyers and sellers now takes place within a market rather than isolated pairs. Remarkably, in a market it suffices to let agents communicate in a very simple manner to mitigate trade failures. The key insight is that better informed agents (sellers) are willing to truthfully reveal their private information, because by doing so they are able to reduce search frictions and attract more buyers. Behavior observed in the experimental sessions closely follows the theoretical predictions. As a consequence, costless and non-binding communication (cheap talk) significantly raises rates of trade and welfare. Previous experiments have documented that cheap talk alleviates inefficiencies due to asymmetric information. These findings are explained by pro-social preferences and lie aversion. I use appropriate control treatments to show that such consideration play only a minor role in our market. Instead, the experiment highlights the ability to organize markets as a new channel through which communication can facilitate trade in the presence of private information. In Chapter 3, I theoretically explore coalition formation via multilateral bargaining under complete information. The environment studied is extremely rich in the sense that the model allows for all kinds of externalities. This is achieved by using so-called partition functions, which pin down a coalitional worth for each possible coalition in each possible coalition structure. It is found that although binding agreements can be written, efficiency is not guaranteed, because the negotiation process is inherently non-cooperative. The prospects of cooperation are shown to crucially depend on i) the degree to which players can renegotiate and gradually build up agreements and ii) the absence of a certain type of externalities that can loosely be described as incentives to free ride. Moreover, the willingness to concede bargaining power is identified as a novel reason for gradualism. Another key contribution of the study is that it identifies a strong connection between the Core, one of the most important concepts in cooperative game theory, and the set of environments for which efficiency is attained even without renegotiation.