Spatiotemporal dynamics: the need for an innovative approach in mountain hazard risk management

Starting with an overview on losses due to mountain hazards in the Russian Federation and the European Alps, the question is raised why a substantial number of events still are recorded—despite considerable efforts in hazard mitigation and risk reduction. The main reason for this paradox lies in a missing dynamic risk-based approach, and it is shown that these dynamics have different roots: firstly, neglecting climate change and systems dynamics, the development of hazard scenarios is based on the static approach of design events. Secondly, due to economic development and population dynamics, the elements at risk exposed are subject to spatial and temporal changes. These issues are discussed with respect to temporal and spatial demands. As a result, it is shown how risk is dynamic on a long-term and short-term scale, which has to be acknowledged in the risk concept if this concept is targeted at a sustainable development of mountain regions. A conceptual model is presented that can be used for dynamical risk assessment, and it is shown by different management strategies how this model may be converted into practice. Furthermore, the interconnectedness and interaction between hazard and risk are addressed in order to enhance prevention, the level of protection and the degree of preparedness.

Prediction of residential radon exposure of the whole Swiss population: comparison of model-based predictions with measurement-based predictions

Radon plays an important role for human exposure to natural sources of ionizing radiation. The aim of this article is to compare two approaches to estimate mean radon exposure in the Swiss population: model-based predictions at individual level and measurement-based predictions based on measurements aggregated at municipality level. A nationwide model was used to predict radon levels in each household and for each individual based on the corresponding tectonic unit, building age, building type, soil texture, degree of urbanization, and floor. Measurement-based predictions were carried out within a health impact assessment on residential radon and lung cancer. Mean measured radon levels were corrected for the average floor distribution and weighted with population size of each municipality. Model-based predictions yielded a mean radon exposure of the Swiss population of 84.1 Bq/m(3) . Measurement-based predictions yielded an average exposure of 78 Bq/m(3) . This study demonstrates that the model- and the measurement-based predictions provided similar results. The advantage of the measurement-based approach is its simplicity, which is sufficient for assessing exposure distribution in a population. The model-based approach allows predicting radon levels at specific sites, which is needed in an epidemiological study, and the results do not depend on how the measurement sites have been selected.

White matter matters: a multimodal approach to investigate white matter microstructure and metabolism

White matter connects different brain areas and applies electrical insulation to the neuron’s axons with myelin sheaths in order to enable quick signal transmission. Due to its modulatory properties in signal conduction, white matter plays an essential role in learning, cognition and psychiatric disorders (Fields, 2008a). In respect thereof, the non-invasive investigation of white matter anatomy and function in vivo provides the unique opportunity to explore the most complex organ of our body. Thus, the present thesis aimed to apply a multimodal neuroimaging approach to investigate different white matter properties in psychiatric and healthy populations. On the one hand, white matter microstructural properties were investigated in a psychiatric population; on the other hand, white matter metabolic properties were assessed in healthy adults providing basic information about the brain’s wiring entity. As a result, three research papers are presented here. The first paper assessed the microstructural properties of white matter in relation to a frequent epidemiologic finding in schizophrenia. As a result, reduced white matter integrity was observed in patients born in summer and autumn compared to patients born in winter and spring. Despite the large genetic basis of schizophrenia, accumulating evidence indicates that environmental exposures may be implicated in the development of schizophrenia (A. S. Brown, 2011). Notably, epidemiologic studies have shown a 5–8% excess of births during winter and spring for patients with schizophrenia on the Northern Hemisphere at higher latitudes (Torrey, Miller, Rawlings, & Yolken, 1997). Although the underlying mechanisms are unclear, the seasonal birth effect may indicate fluctuating environmental risk factors for schizophrenia. Thus, exposure to harmful factors during foetal development may result in the activation of pathologic neural circuits during adolescence or young adulthood, increasing the risk of schizophrenia (Fatemi & Folsom, 2009). While white matter development starts during the foetal period and continues until adulthood, its major development is accomplished by the age of two years (Brody, Kinney, Kloman, & Gilles, 1987; Huang et al., 2009). This indicates a vulnerability period of white matter that may coincide with the fluctuating environmental risk factors for schizophrenia. Since microstructural alterations of white matter in schizophrenia are frequently observed, the current study provided evidence for the neurodevelopmental hypothesis of schizophrenia. In the second research paper, the perfusion of white matter showed a positive correlation between white matter microstructure and its perfusion with blood across healthy adults. This finding was in line with clinical studies indicating a tight coupling between cerebral perfusion and WM health across subjects (Amann et al., 2012; Chen, Rosas, & Salat, 2013; Kitagawa et al., 2009). Although relatively little is known about the metabolic properties of white matter, different microstructural properties, such as axon diameter and myelination, might be coupled with the metabolic demand of white matter. Furthermore, the ability to detect perfusion signal in white matter was in accordance with a recent study showing that technical improvements, such as pseudo-continuous arterial spin labeling, enabled the reliable detection of white matter perfusion signal (van Osch et al., 2009). The third paper involved a collaboration within the same department to assess the interrelation between functional connectivity networks and their underlying structural connectivity.

Estimating Diagnostic Test Accuracies for Brachyspira hyodysenteriae Accounting for the Complexities of Population Structure in Food Animals

For swine dysentery, which is caused by Brachyspira hyodysenteriae infection and is an economically important disease in intensive pig production systems worldwide, a perfect or error-free diagnostic test ("gold standard") is not available. In the absence of a gold standard, Bayesian latent class modelling is a well-established methodology for robust diagnostic test evaluation. In contrast to risk factor studies in food animals, where adjustment for within group correlations is both usual and required for good statistical practice, diagnostic test evaluation studies rarely take such clustering aspects into account, which can result in misleading results. The aim of the present study was to estimate test accuracies of a PCR originally designed for use as a confirmatory test, displaying a high diagnostic specificity, and cultural examination for B. hyodysenteriae. This estimation was conducted based on results of 239 samples from 103 herds originating from routine diagnostic sampling. Using Bayesian latent class modelling comprising of a hierarchical beta-binomial approach (which allowed prevalence across individual herds to vary as herd level random effect), robust estimates for the sensitivities of PCR and culture, as well as for the specificity of PCR, were obtained. The estimated diagnostic sensitivity of PCR (95% CI) and culture were 73.2% (62.3; 82.9) and 88.6% (74.9; 99.3), respectively. The estimated specificity of the PCR was 96.2% (90.9; 99.8). For test evaluation studies, a Bayesian latent class approach is well suited for addressing the considerable complexities of population structure in food animals.

The importance of socio-cultural factors on sports behaviour of adolescents and young adults in Switzerland – a conceptualisation on the basis of the habitus-approach

Sport participation has often been the topic in sports science and it could be shown that in Europe the population of northern and western countries are more often physically active than southern and eastern countries (European Commission, 2014). In Switzerland the physical activity of the Swiss population also differs between the linguistic regions. The German speaking population is more often physically active than the French or Italian speaking part (Stamm & Lamprecht, 2008). To explain the differences in sport participation structural and cultural factors have been discussed. Because within a country homogenous structural conditions can be assumed, the aim of this study is to analyse how socio-cultural factors correlate with sport participation of adolescents and young adults. In order to analyse this research question, Bourdieu’s concept of habitus (1984) has been used as theoretical background. This sport-related concept of habitus considers cultural determined values, the attribution of meaning and patterns of action which is socially determined and have an influence on individual actions and therefore also on the sport practise. On this basis, a qualitative study including guideline-based interviews with German (n=5) and French (n=3) speaking adolescents and young adults at the age of 16 to 24 (M=21.4) were held in two different linguistic regions of Switzerland. To analyse the interviews the documentary method was applied (Bohnsack, 2010). Initial findings reveal that there are different sport related values, attributions of meanings and patterns of action also called framework of orientations concerning topics like body, health and leisure which correlate with the habitual sports practise in the two different linguistic regions. This study illustrates that the habitus is culturally shaped and that it could help to understand the meaning of socio-cultural factors for sport participation.

Planet Population Synthesis

With the increasing number of exoplanets discovered, statistical properties of the population as a whole become unique constraints on planet-formation models, provided a link between the description of the detailed processes playing a role in this formation and the observed population can be established. Planet population synthesis provides such a link. This approach allows us to study how different physical models of individual processes (e.g., protoplanetary disk structure and evolution, planetesimal formation, gas accretion, migration, etc.) affect the overall properties of the population of emerging planets. By necessity, planet population synthesis relies on simplified descriptions of complex processes. These descriptions can be obtained from more detailed specialized simulations of these processes. The objective of this chapter is twofold: (1) provide an overview of the physics entering in the two main approaches to planet population synthesis, and (2) present some of the results achieved as well as illustrate how it can be used to extract constraints on the models and to help interpret observations.

A novel approach for assessing shifting cultivation dynamics in a regional conservation hotspot - insights from nort-eastern Madagascar

The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar has been deemed a global hotspot of biodiversity due to its high levels of endemic speciesbeing heavily threatened by accelerated deforestation rates and landscape changes. The main concern for conservation of the remaining humid primary forests is the shifting cultivation practices of local smallholder farmers for rice production. According to the mainstream narrative, human population growth leads to a shortening of crop-fallow cycles and thus to the accelerated conversion of forests to agricultural land. However, little is currently known about the dynamic changes between forest and shifting cultivation systems at the regional level. Existing land cover change analyses in this area have so far only focused on binary forest to non-forest changes and have therefore failed to account for the dynamic nature of the change processes between forest and different agriculture land use systems. This can be partly explained by the significant challenge to delineate shifting cultivation systems on land cover maps using traditional remote sensing classification approaches. To address this gap we therefore applied a novel GIS approach, that was originally developed for the assessment of shifting cultivation dynamics in Laos and has so far never been applied elsewhere, to map shifting cultivation of different crop-fallow lengths as well as permanent agriculture land use at the regional level. Change analyses of land use maps between 1995 and 2011 allowed us to comprehend the general trends of land use trajectories and their spatial variation. This more detailed understanding of land use change dynamics is key to plan for successful interventions to slow forest loss while at the same time improving local livelihoods. We further believe that this approach holds great potential for conservation monitoring in this resource-rich but povertyprone conservation hotspot.

Diagnostic endoscopy of the navicular bursa using a needle endoscope by direct or transthecal approach: A comparative cadaver study

OBJECTIVES: To compare the practicability, visualization of structures, and iatrogenic damage of direct and transthecal approaches to the navicular bursa for diagnostic needle endoscopy. STUDY DESIGN: Descriptive study. SAMPLE POPULATION: Equine cadaver forelimbs (n = 30). METHODS: Direct and transthecal approaches for insertion of a needle endoscope into the navicular bursa were performed. Video recordings of endoscopic procedures were assessed to determine all structures visualized within the navicular bursa. Number of attempts to gain access to the navicular bursa and total time for insertion and examination were recorded. Distribution and severity of iatrogenic lesions were assessed and scored after dissection. RESULTS: There were no statistical differences for number of attempts or time needed for insertion and examination between direct and transthecal approaches. The direct approach offered significantly increased visibility of the ipsilateral abaxial and proximal margins of the navicular bone, and ipsilateral collateral sesamoidean ligament. Iatrogenic lesions were superficial and focal, regardless of approach taken, or whether a blunt or sharp trocar tip was used. CONCLUSIONS: The direct approach provided significantly better visualization of the ipsilateral structures within the navicular bursa compared to the transthecal approach. Needle endoscopy offers a reliable technique to evaluate the navicular bursa and may complement or replace other diagnostic modalities in horses with lameness localized to the navicular region.

Trends in life expectancy of HIV-positive adults on antiretroviral therapy across the globe: comparisons with general population.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW Improved virological and immunological outcomes and reduced toxicity of antiretroviral combination therapy (ART) raise the hope that life expectancy of HIV-positive persons on ART will approach that of the general population. We systematically review the literature and summarize published estimates of life expectancy of HIV-positive populations on ART. We compare their life expectancy with the life expectancy of the general or, in sub-Saharan Africa, HIV-negative populations, by time period and gender. RECENT FINDINGS Ten relevant studies were published from 2006 to 2015. Three studies were from Canada, two from European countries, three from sub-Saharan Africa and two were multicountry studies. Life expectancy increased over time in all studies and regions. Expressed as the percentage of life expectancy in the HIV-negative or general population, estimated life expectancy at age 20 years in HIV-positive people on ART ranged from 60.3% (95% CI 58.0-62.6%) in Rwanda (2008-2011) to 89.1% (95% CI 84.7-93.6%) in Canada (2008-2012). The percentage of life expectancy in the HIV-negative or general population achieved was higher in HIV-positive women than in HIV-positive men in all countries, except for Canada wherein the opposite was the case. SUMMARY Life expectancy in HIV-positive people on ART has improved worldwide in recent years, but important gaps remain compared with the general and HIV-negative population, and between regions and genders.