Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

Detection and distribution of apoptotic cell death in normal and diseased canine cranial cruciate ligaments

One of the possible initiating factors in canine cranial cruciate ligament (CCL) rupture could be an abnormal pattern of ligament cell death. This study compared apoptotic cell death in sections of ruptured CCLs and normal controls, and examined nitric oxide (NO) production in joint tissues and correlated this to apoptosis. CCLs and cartilage from the lateral femoral condyle were harvested from 10 healthy dogs and 15 dogs with CCL rupture and ligaments were further processed to detect cleaved caspase-3 and to determine supernatant NO production in explant cultures. Apoptotic activity was greater in ruptured ligaments compared to controls. NO in ligaments showed a moderate but significant positive correlation with caspase-positive cells. The results suggest that increased apoptosis has a role in CCL rupture and that apoptosis may be influenced by local NO production.

A multiplex real-time PCR assay for rapid detection and differentiation of 25 bacterial and fungal pathogens from whole blood samples

Early detection of bloodstream infections (BSI) is crucial in the clinical setting. Blood culture remains the gold standard for diagnosing BSI. Molecular diagnostic tools can contribute to a more rapid diagnosis in septic patients. Here, a multiplex real-time PCR-based assay for rapid detection of 25 clinically important pathogens directly from whole blood in <6 h is presented. Minimal analytical sensitivity was determined by hit rate analysis from 20 independent experiments. At a concentration of 3 CFU/ml a hit rate of 50% was obtained for E. aerogenes and 100% for S. marcescens, E. coli, P. mirabilis, P. aeruginosa, and A. fumigatus. The hit rate for C. glabrata was 75% at 30 CFU/ml. Comparing PCR identification results with conventional microbiology for 1,548 clinical isolates yielded an overall specificity of 98.8%. The analytical specificity in 102 healthy blood donors was 100%. Although further evaluation is warranted, our assay holds promise for more rapid pathogen identification in clinical sepsis.

PCR and real-time PCR primers developed for detection and identification of Bifidobacterium thermophilum in faeces

BACKGROUND: Culture-independent methods based on the 16S ribosomal RNA molecule are nowadays widely used for assessment of the composition of the intestinal microbiota, in relation to host health or probiotic efficacy. Because Bifidobacterium thermophilum was only recently isolated from human faeces until now, no specific real-time PCR (qPCR) assay has been developed for detection of this species as component of the bifidobacterial community of the human intestinal flora. RESULTS: Design of specific primers and probe was achieved based on comparison of 108 published bifidobacterial 16S rDNA sequences with the recently published sequence of the human faecal isolate B. thermophilum RBL67. Specificity of the primer was tested in silico by similarity search against the sequence database and confirmed experimentally by PCR amplification on 17 Bifidobacterium strains, representing 12 different species, and two Lactobacillus strains. The qPCR assay developed was linear for B. thermophilum RBL67 DNA quantities ranging from 0.02 ng/microl to 200 ng/microl and showed a detection limit of 10(5) cells per gram faeces. The application of this new qPCR assay allowed to detect the presence of B. thermophilum in one sample from a 6-month old breast-fed baby among 17 human faecal samples tested. Additionally, the specific qPCR primers in combination with selective plating experiments led to the isolation of F9K9, a faecal isolate from a 4-month old breast-fed baby. The 16S rDNA sequence of this isolate is 99.93% similar to that of B. thermophilum RBL67 and confirmed the applicability of the new qPCR assay in faecal samples. CONCLUSION: A new B. thermophilum-specific qPCR assay was developed based on species-specific target nucleotides in the 16S rDNA. It can be used to further characterize the composition of the bifidobacterial community in the human gastrointestinal tract. Until recently, B. thermophilum was considered as a species of animal origin, but here we confirm with the application of this new PCR assay the presence of B. thermophilum strains in the human gut.

A multiplex PCR for the simultaneous detection and genotyping of the Echinococcus granulosus complex.

Echinococcus granulosus is characterized by high intra-specific variability (genotypes G1-G10) and according to the new molecular phylogeny of the genus Echinococcus, the E. granulosus complex has been divided into E. granulosus sensu stricto (G1-G3), E. equinus (G4), E. ortleppi (G5), and E. canadensis (G6-G10). The molecular characterization of E. granulosus isolates is fundamental to understand the spatio-temporal epidemiology of this complex in many endemic areas with the simultaneous occurrence of different Echinococcus species and genotypes. To simplify the genotyping of the E. granulosus complex we developed a single-tube multiplex PCR (mPCR) allowing three levels of discrimination: (i) Echinococcus genus, (ii) E. granulosus complex in common, and (iii) the specific genotype within the E. granulosus complex. The methodology was established with known DNA samples of the different strains/genotypes, confirmed on 42 already genotyped samples (Spain: 22 and Bulgaria: 20) and then successfully applied on 153 unknown samples (Tunisia: 114, Algeria: 26 and Argentina: 13). The sensitivity threshold of the mPCR was found to be 5 ng Echinoccoccus DNA in a mixture of up to 1 µg of foreign DNA and the specificity was 100% when template DNA from closely related members of the genus Taenia was used. Additionally to DNA samples, the mPCR can be carried out directly on boiled hydatid fluid or on alkaline-lysed frozen or fixed protoscoleces, thus avoiding classical DNA extractions. However, when using Echinococcus eggs obtained from fecal samples of infected dogs, the sensitivity of the mPCR was low (<40%). Thus, except for copro analysis, the mPCR described here has a high potential for a worldwide application in large-scale molecular epidemiological studies on the Echinococcus genus.

Are Greenhouse Gas Signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm?

For Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone activity, the dependency of a potential anthropogenic climate change signal on the identification method applied is analysed. This study investigates the impact of the used algorithm on the changing signal, not the robustness of the climate change signal itself. Using one single transient AOGCM simulation as standard input for eleven state-of-the-art identification methods, the patterns of model simulated present day climatologies are found to be close to those computed from re-analysis, independent of the method applied. Although differences in the total number of cyclones identified exist, the climate change signals (IPCC SRES A1B) in the model run considered are largely similar between methods for all cyclones. Taking into account all tracks, decreasing numbers are found in the Mediterranean, the Arctic in the Barents and Greenland Seas, the mid-latitude Pacific and North America. Changing patterns are even more similar, if only the most severe systems are considered: the methods reveal a coherent statistically significant increase in frequency over the eastern North Atlantic and North Pacific. We found that the differences between the methods considered are largely due to the different role of weaker systems in the specific methods.