Spatiotemporal dynamics: the need for an innovative approach in mountain hazard risk management

Starting with an overview on losses due to mountain hazards in the Russian Federation and the European Alps, the question is raised why a substantial number of events still are recorded—despite considerable efforts in hazard mitigation and risk reduction. The main reason for this paradox lies in a missing dynamic risk-based approach, and it is shown that these dynamics have different roots: firstly, neglecting climate change and systems dynamics, the development of hazard scenarios is based on the static approach of design events. Secondly, due to economic development and population dynamics, the elements at risk exposed are subject to spatial and temporal changes. These issues are discussed with respect to temporal and spatial demands. As a result, it is shown how risk is dynamic on a long-term and short-term scale, which has to be acknowledged in the risk concept if this concept is targeted at a sustainable development of mountain regions. A conceptual model is presented that can be used for dynamical risk assessment, and it is shown by different management strategies how this model may be converted into practice. Furthermore, the interconnectedness and interaction between hazard and risk are addressed in order to enhance prevention, the level of protection and the degree of preparedness.

Intraductal papillary neoplasms of the bile duct: stepwise progression to carcinoma involves common molecular pathways

Intraductal papillary neoplasms of the bile duct are still poorly characterized regarding (1) their molecular alterations during the development to invasive carcinomas, (2) their subtype stratification and (3) their biological behavior. We performed a multicenter study that analyzed these issues in a large European cohort. Intraductal papillary neoplasms of the bile duct from 45 patients were graded and subtyped using mucin markers and CDX2. In addition, tumors were analyzed for common oncogenic pathways, and the findings were correlated with subtype and grade. Data were compared with those from 22 extra- and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas. Intraductal papillary neoplasms showed a development from preinvasive low- to high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia to invasive carcinoma. Molecular and immunohistochemical analysis revealed mutated KRAS, overexpression of TP53 and loss of p16 in low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia, whereas loss of SMAD4 was found in late phases of tumor development. Alterations of HER2, EGFR, β-catenin and GNAS were rare events. Among the subtypes, pancreato-biliary (36%) and intestinal (29%) were the most common, followed by gastric (18%) and oncocytic (13%) subtypes. Patients with intraductal papillary neoplasm of the bile duct showed a slightly better overall survival than patients with cholangiocarcinoma (hazard ratio (cholangiocarcinoma versus intraductal papillary neoplasm of the bile duct): 1.40; 95% confidence interval: 0.46-4.30; P=0.552). The development of biliary intraductal papillary neoplasms of the bile duct follows an adenoma-carcinoma sequence that correlates with the stepwise activation of common oncogenic pathways. Further large trials are needed to investigate and verify the finding of a better prognosis of intraductal papillary neoplasms compared with conventional cholangiocarcinoma.

Reconstruction of a flash flood with large wood transport and its influence on hazard patterns in an ungauged mountain basin

The reconstruction of past flash floods in ungauged basins leads to a high level of uncertainty, which increases if other processes are involved such as the transport of large wood material. An important flash flood occurred in 1997 in Venero Claro (Central Spain), causing significant economic losses. The wood material clogged bridge sections, raising the water level upstream. The aim of this study was to reconstruct this event, analysing the influence of woody debris transport on the flood hazard pattern. Because the reach in question was affected by backwater effects due to bridge clogging, using only high water mark or palaeostage indicators may overestimate discharges, and so other methods are required to estimate peak flows. Therefore, the peak discharge was estimated (123 ± 18 m3 s–1) using indirect methods, but one-dimensional hydraulic simulation was also used to validate these indirect estimates through an iterative process (127 ± 33 m3 s–1) and reconstruct the bridge obstruction to obtain the blockage ratio during the 1997 event (~48%) and the bridge clogging curves. Rainfall–Runoff modelling with stochastic simulation of different rainfall field configurations also helped to confirm that a peak discharge greater than 150 m3 s–1 is very unlikely to occur and that the estimated discharge range is consistent with the estimated rainfall amount (233 ± 27 mm). It was observed that the backwater effect due to the obstruction (water level ~7 m) made the 1997 flood (~35-year return period) equivalent to the 50-year flood. This allowed the equivalent return period to be defined as the recurrence interval of an event of specified magnitude, which, where large woody debris is present, is equivalent in water depth and extent of flooded area to a more extreme event of greater magnitude. These results highlight the need to include obstruction phenomena in flood hazard analysis.

How are climate change adaptation strategies put into practice? A case study comparison of natural hazard prevention

Climate change affects increasingly the management of natural resources and has diverse impacts of environmental, social and economic nature. To take this complexity into account, climate change adaptation policies consider the principle of sustainable development. Sustainability is an integrative concept which should insure a long-term and multi-sectoral response to climate change. But the question appears if sustainable development is only retained at the conceptual level or effectively implemented in practice. This paper pursues this question by comparing three projects addressing natural hazard in Swiss mountains. The aim is to investigate how sustainable development is perceived by involved stakeholders and implemented in practice. Two dimensions are thus taken into account: the type of actors participating in these projects and their preferences and interests. The first dimension thus analyzes if diverse actors representing the environmental, economic and social arenas are integrated; the second dimension investigates if different interests and preferences in the sense of sustainability were incorporated in the design and implementation of climate change adaptation. Data were gathered through a standardized survey among all actors involved in the three projects. Preliminary results show that sustainability receives diverse weight and interest in the different cases.

CMR imaging predicts death and other adverse events in suspected cardiac sarcoidosis

OBJECTIVES This study aimed to demonstrate that the presence of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) is a predictor of death and other adverse events in patients with suspected cardiac sarcoidosis. BACKGROUND Cardiac sarcoidosis is the most important cause of patient mortality in systemic sarcoidosis, yielding a 5-year mortality rate between 25% and 66% despite immunosuppressive treatment. Other groups have shown that LGE may hold promise in predicting future adverse events in this patient group. METHODS We included 155 consecutive patients with systemic sarcoidosis who underwent cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) for workup of suspected cardiac sarcoid involvement. The median follow-up time was 2.6 years. Primary endpoints were death, aborted sudden cardiac death, and appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) discharge. Secondary endpoints were ventricular tachycardia (VT) and nonsustained VT. RESULTS LGE was present in 39 patients (25.5%). The presence of LGE yields a Cox hazard ratio (HR) of 31.6 for death, aborted sudden cardiac death, or appropriate ICD discharge, and of 33.9 for any event. This is superior to functional or clinical parameters such as left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (EF), LV end-diastolic volume, or presentation as heart failure, yielding HRs between 0.99 (per % increase LVEF) and 1.004 (presentation as heart failure), and between 0.94 and 1.2 for potentially lethal or other adverse events, respectively. Except for 1 patient dying from pulmonary infection, no patient without LGE died or experienced any event during follow-up, even if the LV was enlarged and the LVEF severely impaired. CONCLUSIONS Among our population of sarcoid patients with nonspecific symptoms, the presence of myocardial scar indicated by LGE was the best independent predictor of potentially lethal events, as well as other adverse events, yielding a Cox HR of 31.6 and of 33.9, respectively. These data support the necessity for future large, longitudinal follow-up studies to definitely establish LGE as an independent predictor of cardiac death in sarcoidosis, as well as to evaluate the incremental prognostic value of additional parameters.

Assessing the Environmental Hazard of Using Seawater for Ore Processing at the Lasail Mine Site in the Sultanate of Oman

The Lasail mining area (Sultanate of Oman) was contaminated by acid mine drainage during the exploitation and processing of local and imported copper ore and the subsequent deposition of sulphide-bearing waste material into an unsealed tailings dump. In this arid environment, the use of seawater in the initial stages of ore processing caused saline contamination of the fresh groundwater downstream of the tailings dump. After detection of the contamination in the 1980s, different source-controlled remediation activities were conducted including a seepage water collection system and, in 2005, surface sealing of the tailings dump using an HDPE-liner to prevent further infiltration of meteoric water. We have been assessing the benefits of the remediation actions undertaken so far. We present chemical and isotopic (δ18O, δ 2H, 3H) groundwater data from a long-term survey (8–16 years) of the Wadi Suq aquifer along a 28 km profile from the tailings dump to the Gulf of Oman. Over this period, most metal concentrations in the Wadi Suq groundwater decreased below detection limits. In addition, in the first boreholes downstream of the tailings pond, the salinity contamination has decreased by 30 % since 2005. This decrease appears to be related to the surface coverage of the tailings pond, which reduces flushing of the tailings by the sporadic, but commonly heavy, precipitation events. Despite generally low metal concentrations and the decreased salinity, groundwater quality still does not meet the WHO drinking water guidelines in more than 90 % of the Wadi Suq aquifer area. The observations show that under arid conditions, use of seawater for ore processing or any other industrial activity has the potential to contaminate aquifers for decades.