Severity assessment tools in ICU patients with 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pneumonia.

The aim of this study was to determine if severity assessment tools (general severity of illness and community-acquired pneumonia specific scores) can be used to guide decisions for patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) due to pandemic influenza A pneumonia. A prospective, observational, multicentre study included 265 patients with a mean age of 42 (±16.1) years and an ICU mortality of 31.7%. On admission to the ICU, the mean pneumonia severity index (PSI) score was 103.2 ± 43.2 points, the CURB-65 score was 1.7 ± 1.1 points and the PIRO-CAP score was 3.2 ± 1.5 points. None of the scores had a good predictive ability: area under the ROC for PSI, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.65-0.78); CURB-65, 0.67 (95% CI, 0.59-0.74); and PIRO-CAP, 0.64 (95% CI, 0.56-0.71). The PSI score (OR, 1.022 (1.009-1.034), p 0.001) was independently associated with ICU mortality; however, none of the three scores, when used at ICU admission, were able to reliably detect a low-risk group of patients. Low risk for mortality was identified in 27.5% of patients using PIRO-CAP, but above 40% when using PSI (I-III) or CURB65 (<2). Observed mortality was 13.7%, 13.5% and 19.4%, respectively. Pneumonia-specific scores undervalued severity and should not be used as instruments to guide decisions in the ICU.

Risk-conscious Reconstruction in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. A Case Study of the Chakhama Valley

The Chakhama Valley, a remote area in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, was badly damaged by the 7.6-magnitude earthquake that struck India and Pakistan on 8 October 2005. More than 5% of the population lost their lives, and about 90% of the existing housing was irreparably damaged or completely destroyed. In early 2006, the Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) initiated a multisector, community-driven reconstruction program in the Chakhama Valley on the premise that the scale of the disaster required a response that would address all aspects of people's lives. One important aspect covered the promotion of disaster risk management for sustainable recovery in a safe environment. Accordingly, prevailing hazards (rockfalls, landslides, and debris flow, in addition to earthquake hazards) and existing risks were thoroughly assessed, and the information was incorporated into the main planning processes. Hazard maps, detailed site investigations, and proposals for precautionary measures assisted engineers in supporting the reconstruction of private homes in safe locations to render investments disaster resilient. The information was also used for community-based land use decisions and disaster mitigation and preparedness. The work revealed three main problems: (1) thorough assessment of hazards and incorporation of this assessment into planning processes is time consuming and often little understood by the population directly affected, but it pays off in the long run; (2) relocating people out of dangerous places is a highly sensitive issue that requires the support of clear and forceful government policies; and (3) the involvement of local communities is essential for the success of mitigation and preparedness.

Integrated Disaster Reduction Approach: LforS Learning and Simulation Game

Main objective of the game is to increase the coping capacity of players and familiarise them with the Integrated Disaster Reduction Approach. The game is intended to prepare for and introduce the players to a subsequent Learning for Sustainability capacity building workshop for community leaders. The game represents a typical emergency situation resulting from a natural disaster. Before and after the event, adequate measures help to prevent or minimise potential damages. Once a disaster has occurred, concerted actions and immediate measures need to be taken to rescue as much as possible (human lives, livestock, material) and safeguard the village against further damage and losses. In the course of the game, each playing team can proof its knowledge on adequate measures that have to be taken in order to avoid or reduce losses related to natural disasters. Such measures relate to assessment and monitoring of risks, prevention and mitigation measures, preparedness and response as well as recovery and reconstruction.

Potential Impact of Sexual Transmission on Ebola Virus Epidemiology: Sierra Leone as a Case Study.

BACKGROUND Sexual transmission of Ebola virus disease (EVD) 6 months after onset of symptoms has been recently documented, and Ebola virus RNA has been detected in semen of survivors up to 9 months after onset of symptoms. As countries affected by the 2013-2015 epidemic in West Africa, by far the largest to date, are declared free of Ebola virus disease (EVD), it remains unclear what threat is posed by rare sexual transmission events that could arise from survivors. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We devised a compartmental mathematical model that includes sexual transmission from convalescent survivors: a SEICR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-convalescent-recovered) transmission model. We fitted the model to weekly incidence of EVD cases from the 2014-2015 epidemic in Sierra Leone. Sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations showed that a 0.1% per sex act transmission probability and a 3-month convalescent period (the two key unknown parameters of sexual transmission) create very few additional cases, but would extend the epidemic by 83 days [95% CI: 68-98 days] (p < 0.0001) on average. Strikingly, a 6-month convalescent period extended the average epidemic by 540 days (95% CI: 508-572 days), doubling the current length, despite an insignificant rise in the number of new cases generated. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our results show that reductions in the per sex act transmission probability via abstinence and condom use should reduce the number of sporadic sexual transmission events, but will not significantly reduce the epidemic size and may only minimally shorten the length of time the public health community must maintain response preparedness. While the number of infectious survivors is expected to greatly decline over the coming months, our results show that transmission events may still be expected for quite some time as each event results in a new potential cluster of non-sexual transmission. Precise measurement of the convalescent period is thus important for planning ongoing surveillance efforts.