Investigating the consistency between proxy-based reconstructions and climate models using data assimilation: a mid-Holocene case study

The mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP; thousand years before present) is a key period to study the consistency between model results and proxy-based reconstruction data as it corresponds to a standard test for models and a reasonable number of proxy-based records is available. Taking advantage of this relatively large amount of information, we have compared a compilation of 50 air and sea surface temperature reconstructions with the results of three simulations performed with general circulation models and one carried out with LOVECLIM, a model of intermediate complexity. The conclusions derived from this analysis confirm that models and data agree on the large-scale spatial pattern but the models underestimate the magnitude of some observed changes and that large discrepancies are observed at the local scale. To further investigate the origin of those inconsistencies, we have constrained LOVECLIM to follow the signal recorded by the proxies selected in the compilation using a data-assimilation method based on a particle filter. In one simulation, all the 50 proxy-based records are used while in the other two only the continental or oceanic proxy-based records constrain the model results. As expected, data assimilation leads to improving the consistency between model results and the reconstructions. In particular, this is achieved in a robust way in all the experiments through a strengthening of the westerlies at midlatitude that warms up northern Europe. Furthermore, the comparison of the LOVECLIM simulations with and without data assimilation has also objectively identified 16 proxy-based paleoclimate records whose reconstructed signal is either incompatible with the signal recorded by some other proxy-based records or with model physics.

Methodological considerations and practical recommendations for the application of peripheral arterial tonometry in children and adolescents

Endothelial dysfunction is recognized as the primum movens in the development of atherosclerosis. Its crucial role in both cardiovascular morbidity and mortality has been confirmed. In the past, research was hampered by the invasive character of endothelial function assessment. The development of non-invasive and feasible techniques to measure endothelial function has facilitated and promoted research in various adult and paediatric subpopulations. To avoid user dependence of flow-mediated dilation (FMD), which evaluates nitric oxide dependent vasodilation in large vessels, a semi-automated, method to assess peripheral microvascular function, called peripheral arterial tonometry (Endo-PAT®), was recently introduced. The number of studies using this technique in children and adolescents is rapidly increasing, yet there is no consensus with regard to either measuring protocol or data analysis of peripheral arterial tonometry in children and adolescents. Most paediatric studies simply applied measuring and analysing methodology established in adults, a simplification that may not be appropriate. This paper provides a detailed description of endothelial function assessment using the Endo-PAT for researchers and clinicians. We discuss clinical and methodological considerations and point out the differences between children, adolescents and adults. Finally, the main aim of this paper is to provide recommendations for a standardised application of Endo-PAT in children and adolescents, as well as for population-specific data analysis methodology.

Bullous pemphigoid: therapeutic algrorithm and practical management

Introduction: Bullous pemphigoid (BP) is the most common autoimmune subepidermal blistering disease of the skin and mucosae. BP typically affects the elderly and manifests with severe itch, localised or generalised eczematous, urticated and/or bullous lesions. Its morbidity and impact on the quality of life are important. The disease is significantly associated with neurological disorders, such as stroke, Parkinson disease, major cognitive impairment and multiple sclerosis. Diagnosis of BP critically relies on immunopathologic examinations, particularly direct immunofluorescence microscopy studies. Areas covered: This paper looks at the evidence of therapies commonly used in bullous pemphigoid. Expert opinion: Treatment of BP has been a challenge, given the relative rarity of the disease, lack of good quality randomised controlled trials, the presence of co-morbidities in the affected elderly population and the high mortality rate. Recent controlled studies have indicated that potent topical corticosteroids constitute a more effective therapy for BP when compared to oral corticosteroids in terms of control of the disease, side effect profile and overall survival. Other therapies have been employed with varying success, but are not validated yet. Improved knowledge of the pathophysiology of BP will hopefully allow the development of new immunomodulatory treatments for this debilitating disease.

Expertise in Clinical Psychology. The Effects of University Training and Practical Experience on Expertise in Clinical Psychology

How do university training and subsequent practical experience affect expertise in clinical psychology? To answer this question we developed methods to assess psychological knowledge and the competence to diagnose, construct case conceptualizations, and plan psychotherapeutic treatment: a knowledge test and short case studies in a first study, and a complex, dynamically evolving case study in the second study. In our cross-sectional studies, psychology students, trainees in a certified postgraduate psychotherapist curriculum, and behavior therapists with more than 10 years of experience were tested (100 in total: 20 each of novice, intermediate, and advanced university students, postgraduate trainees, and therapists). Clinical knowledge and competence increased up to the level of trainees but unexpectedly decreased at the level of experienced therapists. We discuss the results against the background of expertise research and the training of clinical psychologists (in Germany). Important factors for the continuing professional development of psychotherapists are proposed.

Values of children and family models of adolescents: An eleven-culture study

Starting from Kagitcibasi's (2007) conceptualization of family models, this study compared N = 2961 adolescents' values across eleven cultures and explored whether patterns of values were related to the three proposed family models through cluster analyses. Three clusters with value profiles corresponding to the family models of interdependence, emotional interdependence, and independence were identified on the cultural as well as on the individual level. Furthermore, individual-level clusters corresponded to culture-level clusters in terms of individual cluster membership. The results largely support Kagitcibasi's proposition of changing family models and demonstrate their representation as individual-level value profiles across cultures.

Avian area vasculosa and CAM as rapid in vivo pro-angiogenic and antiangiogenic models.

Angiogenesis, the development of new blood vessels from preexisting ones, is driven by coordinated signaling pathways governed by specific molecules, hemodynamic forces, and endothelial and periendothelial cells. The processes involve adhesion, migration, and survival machinery within the target endothelial and periendothelial cells. Factors that interfere with any of these processes may therefore influence angiogenesis either positively (pro-angiogenesis) or negatively (antiangiogenesis). The avian area vasculosa (AV) and the avian chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) are two useful tools for studying both angiogenesis and antiangiogenesis since they are amenable to both intravascular and topical administration of target, agents, are relatively rapid assays, and can be adapted very easily to study angiogenesis-dependent processes, such as tumor growth. Both models provide a physiological setting that permits investigation of pro-angiogenic and antiangiogenic agent interactions in vivo.

Plasma environment of a weak comet – Predictions for Comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko from multifluid-MHD and Hybrid models

The interaction of a comet with the solar wind undergoes various stages as the comet’s activity varies along its orbit. For a comet like 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko, the target comet of ESA’s Rosetta mission, the various features include the formation of a Mach cone, the bow shock, and close to perihelion even a diamagnetic cavity. There are different approaches to simulate this complex interplay between the solar wind and the comet’s extended neutral gas coma which include magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) and hybrid-type models. The first treats the plasma as fluids (one fluid in basic single fluid MHD) and the latter treats the ions as individual particles under the influence of the local electric and magnetic fields. The electrons are treated as a charge-neutralizing fluid in both cases. Given the different approaches both models yield different results, in particular for a low production rate comet. In this paper we will show that these differences can be reduced when using a multifluid instead of a single-fluid MHD model and increase the resolution of the Hybrid model. We will show that some major features obtained with a hybrid type approach like the gyration of the cometary heavy ions and the formation of the Mach cone can be partially reproduced with the multifluid-type model.

Comparison of 3D kinetic and hydrodynamic models to ROSINA-COPS measurements of the neutral coma of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P) is a Jupiter-family comet and the object of investigation of the European Space Agency mission Rosetta. This report presents the first full 3D simulation results of 67P’s neutral gas coma. In this study we include results from a direct simulation Monte Carlo method, a hydrodynamic code, and a purely geometric calculation which computes the total illuminated surface area on the nucleus. All models include the triangulated 3D shape model of 67P as well as realistic illumination and shadowing conditions. The basic concept is the assumption that these illumination conditions on the nucleus are the main driver for the gas activity of the comet. As a consequence, the total production rate of 67P varies as a function of solar insolation. The best agreement between the model and the data is achieved when gas fluxes on the night side are in the range of 7% to 10% of the maximum flux, accounting for contributions from the most volatile components. To validate the output of our numerical simulations we compare the results of all three models to in situ gas number density measurements from the ROSINA COPS instrument. We are able to reproduce the overall features of these local neutral number density measurements of ROSINA COPS for the time period between early August 2014 and January 1 2015 with all three models. Some details in the measurements are not reproduced and warrant further investigation and refinement of the models. However, the overall assumption that illumination conditions on the nucleus are at least an important driver of the gas activity is validated by the models. According to our simulation results we find the total production rate of 67P to be constant between August and November 2014 with a value of about 1 × 10²⁶ molecules s⁻¹.

Approaches for the vaccination and treatment of Neospora caninum infections in mice and ruminant models.

Neospora caninum is a leading cause of abortion in cattle, and is thus an important veterinary health problem of high economic significance. Vaccination has been considered a viable strategy to prevent bovine neosporosis. Different approaches have been investigated, and to date the most promising results have been achieved with live-attenuated vaccines. Subunit vaccines have also been studied, and most of them represented components that are functionally involved in (i) the physical interaction between the parasite and its host cell during invasion or (ii) tachyzoite-to-bradyzoite stage conversion. Drugs have been considered as an option to limit the effects of vertical transmission of N. caninum. Promising results with a small panel of compounds in small laboratory animal models indicate the potential value of a chemotherapeutical approach for the prevention of neosporosis in ruminants. For both, vaccines and drugs, the key for success in preventing vertical transmission lies in the application of bioactive compounds that limit parasite proliferation and dissemination, without endangering the developing fetus not only during an exogenous acute infection but also during recrudescence of a chronic infection. In this review, the current status of vaccine and drug development is presented and novel strategies against neosporosis are discussed.

Comparisons between analogue and numerical models of thrust wedge development

Analogue and finite element numerical models with frictional and viscous properties are used to model thrust wedge development. Comparison between model types yields valuable information about analogue model evolution, scaling laws and the relative strengths and limitations of the techniques. Both model types show a marked contrast in structural style between ‘frictional-viscous domains’ underlain by a thin viscous layer and purely ‘frictional domains’. Closely spaced thrusts form a narrow and highly asymmetric fold-and-thrust belt in the frictional domain, characterized by in-sequence propagation of forward thrusts. In contrast, the frictional-viscous domain shows a wide and low taper wedge and a thrust belt with a more symmetrical vergence, with both forward and back thrusts. The frictional-viscous domain numerical models show that the viscous layer initially simple shears as deformation propagates along it, while localized deformation resulting in the formation of a pop-up structure occurs in the overlying frictional layers. In both domains, thrust shear zones in the numerical model are generally steeper than the equivalent faults in the analogue model, because the finite element code uses a non-associated plasticity flow law. Nevertheless, the qualitative agreement between analogue and numerical models is encouraging. It shows that the continuum approximation used in numerical models can be used to model frictional materials, such as sand, provided caution is taken to properly scale the experiments, and some of the limitations are taken into account.

M-AARE - Coupling atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models in the Aare river basin, Switzerland

The triggering mechanism and the temporal evolution of large flood events, especially of worst-case scenarios, are not yet fully understood. Consequently, the cumulative losses of extreme floods are unknown. To study the link between weather conditions, discharges and flood losses it is necessary to couple atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models. The objective of the M-AARE project is to test the potentials and opportunities of a model chain that relates atmospheric conditions to flood losses or risks. The M-AARE model chain is a set of coupled models consisting of four main components: the precipitation module, the hydrology module, the hydrodynamic module, and the damage module. The models are coupled in a cascading framework with harmonized time-steps. First exploratory applications show that the one way coupling of the WRF-PREVAH-BASEMENT models has been achieved and provides promising new insights for a better understanding of key aspects in flood risk analysis.

Simulator training on pulsatile vascular models significantly improves surgical skills and the quality of carotid patch plasty

Vascular surgeons perform numerous highly sophisticated and delicate procedures. Due to restrictions in training time and the advent of endovascular techniques, new concepts including alternative environments for training and assessment of surgical skills are required. Over the past decade, training on simulators and synthetic models has become more sophisticated and lifelike. This study was designed to evaluate the impact of a 3-day intense training course in open vascular surgery on both specific and global vascular surgical skills.