The Arduous Process of Climate Change Negotiations: How Science Can Facilitate the Desired Outcome

Effective interaction between climate science and policy is important for moving climate negotiations forward to reach an ambitious global climate change deal. Lack of progress in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations during recent years is a good reason for taking a closer look at the process of climate science–policy interaction to identify and eliminate existing shortcomings hindering climate policymaking. This paper examines the current state of climate science–policy interaction and suggests ways to integrate scientific input into the UNFCCC process more effectively. Suggestions relate to improvement in institutional structures, processes and procedures of the UNFCCC and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), quality of scientific input, credibility of scientific message and public awareness of climate change.

Sedimentary evolution and environmental history of Lake Van (Turkey) over the past 600,000 years

The lithostratigraphic framework of Lake Van, eastern Turkey, has been systematically analysed to document the sedimentary evolution and the environmental history of the lake during the past ca 600,000 years. The lithostratigraphy and chemostratigraphy of a 219 m long drill core from Lake Van serves to separate global climate oscillations from local factors caused by tectonic and volcanic activity. An age model was established based on the climatostratigraphic alignment of chemical and lithological signatures, validated by 40Ar/39Ar ages. The drilled sequence consists of ca 76% lacustrine carbonaceous clayey silt, ca 2% fluvial deposits, ca 17% volcaniclastic deposits and 5% gaps. Six lacustrine lithotypes were separated from the fluvial and event deposits, such as volcaniclastics (ca 300 layers) and graded beds (ca 375 layers), and their depositional environments are documented. These lithotypes are: (i) graded beds frequently intercalated with varved clayey silts reflect rising lake-levels during the terminations; (ii) varved clayey silts reflect strong seasonality and an intralake oxic–anoxic boundary, for example, lake-level highstands during interglacials/interstadials; (iii) CaCO3-rich banded sediments are representative of a lowering of the oxic-anoxic boundary, for example, lake-level decreases during glacial inceptions; (iv) CaCO3-poor banded and mottled clayey silts reflect an oxic–anoxic boundary close to the sediment-water interface, for example, lake-level low-stands during glacials/stadials; (v) diatomaceous muds were deposited during the early beginning of the lake as a fresh water system; and (vi) fluvial sands and gravels indicate the initial flooding of the lake basin. The recurrence of lithologies (i) to (iv) follows the past five glacial/interglacial cycles. A 20 m thick disturbed unit reflects an interval of major tectonic activity in Lake Van at ca 414 ka BP.

Four thousand years of vegetation and fire history in the spruce forests of northern Kyrgyzstan (Kungey Alatau, Central Asia)

Analyses of pollen, macrofossils and microscopic charcoal in the sediment of a small sub-alpine lake (Karakol, Kyrgyzstan) provide new data to reconstruct the vegetation history of the Kungey Alatau spruce forest during the late-Holocene, i.e. the past 4,000 years. The pollen data suggest that Picea schrenkiana F. and M. was the dominant tree in this region from the beginning of the record. The pollen record of pronounced die-backs of the forests, along with lithostratigraphical evidence, points to possible climatic cooling (and/or drying) around 3,800 cal year B.P., and between 3,350 and 2,520 cal year B.P., with a culmination at 2,800-2,600 cal B.P., although stable climatic conditions are reported for this region for the past 3,000-4,000 years in previous studies. From 2,500 to 190 cal year B.P. high pollen values of P. schrenkiana suggest rather closed and dense forests under the environmental conditions of that time. A marked decline in spruce forests occurred with the onset of modern human activities in the region from 190 cal year B.P. These results show that the present forests are anthropogenically reduced and represent only about half of their potential natural extent. As P. schrenkiana is a species endemic to the western Tien Shan, it is most likely that its refugium was confined to this region. However, our palaeoecological record is too recent to address this hypothesis thoroughly.

Modification of the magnetic properties of a heterometallic wheel by inclusion of a Jahn-Teller distorted Cu(II) ion

An investigation into the physical consequences of including a Jahn-Teller distorted Cu(II) ion within an antiferromagnetically coupled ring, [R(2)NH(2)][Cr(7)CuF(8)((O(2)C(t)Bu)(16))] is reported. Inelastic neutron scattering (INS) and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopic data are simulated using a microscopic spin Hamiltonian, and show that the two Cr-Cu exchange interactions must be inequivalent. One Cr-Cu exchange is found to be antiferromagnetic and the other ferromagnetic. The geometry of the Jahn-Teller elongation is deduced from these results, and shows that a Jahn-Teller elongation axis must lie in the plane of the Cr(7)Cu wheel; the elongation is not observed by X-ray crystallography, due to positional disorder of the Cu site within the wheel. An electronic structure calculation confirms the structural distortion of the Cu site.

Challenges in the early detection of psychosis in children and adolescents

The early detection and treatment of persons at-risk for psychosis is currently regarded a promising strategy in fighting the devastating consequences of psychotic disorders. The two current at-risk approaches, i.e., the "ultra high risk" and the "basic symptom" criteria, were mainly developed on adult samples. Initial evidence suggests, however, that they cannot simply be applied to children and adolescents. For ultra high risk criteria, there is indication of some attenuated psychotic symptoms being potentially non-specific in adolescents and of brief limited intermittent symptoms being difficult to clinically classify in children when observable behavioral correlates are missing. For basic symptoms, too, only preliminary indication of their usefulness in children and adolescents exists. Since developmental peculiarities in the assessment of basic symptoms should be considered, a child and youth version of the Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument (SPI-CY) was developed. In conclusion, research on the clinical-prognostic validity of the at-risk criteria and their potential adoption to the special needs of children and adolescents is needed. If a Prodromal Risk Syndrome for Psychosis or Attenuated Psychotic Symptoms Syndrome will be included into DSM-V, it has to be highlighted that its suitability for children and adolescents is only insufficiently known.

Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound

We explore the macroeconomic effects of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007–09 via a time-varying parameter structural VAR model. We identify a “pure” spread shock defined as a shock that leaves the policy rate unchanged, which allows us to characterize the macroeconomic consequences of a decline in the yield spread induced by central banks’ asset purchases within an environment in which the policy rate is constrained by the effective zero lower bound. Two key findings stand out. First, compressions in the long-term yield spread exert a powerful effect on both output growth and inflation. Second, conditional on available estimates of the impact of the Federal Reserve’s and the Bank of England’s asset purchase programs on long-term yield spreads, our counterfactual simulations suggest that U.S. and U.K. unconventional monetary policy actions have averted significant risks both of deflation and of output collapses comparable to those that took place during the Great Depression.

A glimpse into the future composition of marine phytoplankton communities

It is expected that climate change will have significant impacts on ecosystems. Most model projections agree that the ocean will experience stronger stratification and less nutrient supply from deep waters. These changes will likely affect marine phytoplankton communities and will thus impact on the higher trophic levels of the oceanic food web. The potential consequences of future climate change on marine microbial communities can be investigated and predicted only with the help of mathematical models. Here we present the application of a model that describes aggregate properties of marine phytoplankton communities and captures the effects of a changing environment on their composition and adaptive capacity. Specifically, the model describes the phytoplankton community in terms of total biomass, mean cell size, and functional diversity. The model is applied to two contrasting regions of the Atlantic Ocean (tropical and temperate) and is tested under two emission scenarios: SRES A2 or “business as usual” and SRES B1 or “local utopia.” We find that all three macroecological properties will decline during the next century in both regions, although this effect will be more pronounced in the temperate region. Being consistent with previous model predictions, our results show that a simple trait-based modeling framework represents a valuable tool for investigating how phytoplankton communities may reorganize under a changing climate.

Kinetics and kinematics of the tölt: effects of rider interaction and shoeing manipulations

Introduction . Compared to most equine horse breeds which are able to walk, trot and canter /gallop, the gait repertoire of the Icelandic horses additionally includes the lateral gait tölt and frequently also the pace. With respect to the tölt gait, special shoeing, saddling and riding techniques have been developed for Icelandic horses in order to enhance its expressiveness and regularity. Toes are left unnaturally long and heavy shoes and paddings, as well as weighted boots are used to enforce the individual gait predisposition. For the same reason, the rider is placed more caudally to the horse's centre of mass as compared to other riding techniques. The biomechanical impact of these methods on the health of the locomotor system has so far never been subject of systematic research. Objectives . The aims of the presented study are (1) to describe the kinetic and kinematic characteristics of the tölt performed on a treadmill, (2) to understand the mechanical consequences of shoeing manipulation (long hooves, weighted boots) on the loading and protraction movement of the limbs, as well as (3) to study the pressure distribution and effects on the gait pattern of 3 different saddle types used for riding Icelandic horses. Materials and methods . Gait analysis was carried out in 13 Icelandic horses at walk and at slow and medium tölting and trotting speeds on a high-speed treadmill instrumented for measuring vertical ground reaction forces as well as temporal and spatial gait variables. Kinematic data of horse, rider and saddle were measured simultaneously. Gait analysis was first carried out with high, long hooves (SH) without and in combination with weighted boots (ad aim (2)). Afterwards, horses were re-shod according to current horseshoeing standards (SN) and gait analysis was repeated (ad aims (1) and (2)). In a second trial, horses were additionally equipped with a pressure sensitive saddle mat and were ridden with a dressage-like saddle (SDres), an Icelandic saddle (Slcel) and a saddle cushion (SCush) in the standard saddle position (ad aim 3). Results and conclusions . Compared to trot at the same speed, tölting horses had a higher stride rate and lower stride impulses. At the tölt loading of the forelimbs was increased in form of higher peak vertical forces (Fzpeak) due to shorter relative stance durations (StDrel). Conversely, in the hindlimbs, longer StDrel resulted in lower Fzpeak. Despite the higher head-neck position at tölt, there was no measurable shift in weight to the hindlimbs. Footfall rhythm was in most horses laterally coupled at the tölt and frequently had a slight fourbeat and a very short suspension phase at trot; underlining the fact that performance of correct gaits in Icelandic horses needs special training. Gait performance as it is currently judged in competition could be improved using a shoeing with SH, resulting in a 21 ± 5 mm longer dorsal hoof wall, but also a weight gain of 273 ± 50 g at the distal limb due to heavier shoeing material. Compared to SN, SH led to a lower stride rate, a longer stride length and a higher, but not wider, forelimb protraction arc, which were also positively associated with speed. At the tölt, the footfall rhythm showed less tendency to lateral couplets and at the trot, the suspension phase was longer. However, on the long term, SH may have negative implications for the health of the palmar structures of the distal foot by increased limb impulses, higher torques at breakover (up to 20%); as well as peak vertical forces at faster speeds. Compared to the shoeing style, the saddle type had less influence on limb forces or movements. The slight weight shift to the rear with SCush and Slcel may be explained by the more caudal position of the rider relative to the horse's back. With SCush, pressure was highest under the cranial part of the saddle, whereas the saddles with trees had more pressure under the caudal area.