Sensitivity of pelagic calcification to ocean acidification

Ocean acidification might reduce the ability of calcifying plankton to produce and maintain their shells of calcite, or of aragonite, the more soluble form of CaCO3. In addition to possibly large biological impacts, reduced CaCO3 production corresponds to a negative feedback on atmospheric CO2. In order to explore the sensitivity of the ocean carbon cycle to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, we use the new biogeochemical Bern3D/PISCES model. The model reproduces the large scale distributions of biogeochemical tracers. With a range of sensitivity studies, we explore the effect of (i) using different parameterizations of CaCO3 production fitted to available laboratory and field experiments, of (ii) letting calcite and aragonite be produced by auto- and heterotrophic plankton groups, and of (iii) using carbon emissions from the range of the most recent IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Under a high-emission scenario, the CaCO3 production of all the model versions decreases from ~1 Pg C yr−1 to between 0.36 and 0.82 Pg C yr−1 by the year 2100. The changes in CaCO3 production and dissolution resulting from ocean acidification provide only a small feedback on atmospheric CO2 of −1 to −11 ppm by the year 2100, despite the wide range of parameterizations, model versions and scenarios included in our study. A potential upper limit of the CO2-calcification/dissolution feedback of −30 ppm by the year 2100 is computed by setting calcification to zero after 2000 in a high 21st century emission scenario. The similarity of feedback estimates yielded by the model version with calcite produced by nanophytoplankton and the one with calcite, respectively aragonite produced by mesozooplankton suggests that expending biogeochemical models to calcifying zooplankton might not be needed to simulate biogeochemical impacts on the marine carbonate cycle. The changes in saturation state confirm previous studies indicating that future anthropogenic CO2 emissions may lead to irreversible changes in ΩA for several centuries. Furthermore, due to the long-term changes in the deep ocean, the ratio of open water CaCO3 dissolution to production stabilizes by the year 2500 at a value that is 30–50% higher than at pre-industrial times when carbon emissions are set to zero after 2100.

Impact of suborbital climate changes in the North Atlantic on ice sheet dynamics at the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

[1] Early and Mid-Pleistocene climate, ocean hydrography and ice sheet dynamics have been reconstructed using a high-resolution data set (planktonic and benthicδ18O time series, faunal-based sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions and ice-rafted debris (IRD)) record from a high-deposition-rate sedimentary succession recovered at the Gardar Drift formation in the subpolar North Atlantic (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Leg 306, Site U1314). Our sedimentary record spans from late in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 31 to MIS 19 (1069–779 ka). Different trends of the benthic and planktonic oxygen isotopes, SST and IRD records before and after MIS 25 (∼940 ka) evidence the large increase in Northern Hemisphere ice-volume, linked to the cyclicity change from the 41-kyr to the 100-kyr that occurred during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). Beside longer glacial-interglacial (G-IG) variability, millennial-scale fluctuations were a pervasive feature across our study. Negative excursions in the benthicδ18O time series observed at the times of IRD events may be related to glacio-eustatic changes due to ice sheets retreats and/or to changes in deep hydrography. Time series analysis on surface water proxies (IRD, SST and planktonicδ18O) of the interval between MIS 31 to MIS 26 shows that the timing of these millennial-scale climate changes are related to half-precessional (10 kyr) components of the insolation forcing, which are interpreted as cross-equatorial heat transport toward high latitudes during both equinox insolation maxima at the equator.

Toward explaining the Holocene carbon dioxide and carbon isotope records: Results from transient ocean carbon cycle-climate simulations

[1] The Bern3D model was applied to quantify the mechanisms of carbon cycle changes during the Holocene (last 11,000 years). We rely on scenarios from the literature to prescribe the evolution of shallow water carbonate deposition and of land carbon inventory changes over the glacial termination (18,000 to 11,000 years ago) and the Holocene and modify these scenarios within uncertainties. Model results are consistent with Holocene records of atmospheric CO2 and δ13C as well as the spatiotemporal evolution of δ13C and carbonate ion concentration in the deep sea. Deposition of shallow water carbonate, carbonate compensation of land uptake during the glacial termination, land carbon uptake and release during the Holocene, and the response of the ocean-sediment system to marine changes during the termination contribute roughly equally to the reconstructed late Holocene pCO2 rise of 20 ppmv. The 5 ppmv early Holocene pCO2 decrease reflects terrestrial uptake largely compensated by carbonate deposition and ocean sediment responses. Additional small contributions arise from Holocene changes in sea surface temperature, ocean circulation, and export productivity. The Holocene pCO2 variations result from the subtle balance of forcings and processes acting on different timescales and partly in opposite direction as well as from memory effects associated with changes occurring during the termination. Different interglacial periods with different forcing histories are thus expected to yield different pCO2 evolutions as documented by ice cores.

On the relationship between Nd isotopic composition and ocean overturning circulation in idealized freshwater discharge events

Using a cost-efficient climate model, the effect of changes in overturning circulation on neodymium isotopic composition,ϵNd, is systematically examined for the first time. Idealized sequences of abrupt climate changes are induced by the application of periodic freshwater fluxes to the North Atlantic (NA) and the Southern Ocean (SO), thus mainly affecting either the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) or Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). Variations in ϵNd reflect weakening and strengthening of the formation of NADW and AABW, changes in ϵNdof end-members are relatively small. Relationships betweenϵNd and the strength of NADW or AABW are more pronounced for AABW than for NADW. Atlantic patterns of variations in ϵNd systematically differ between NA and SO experiments. Additionally, the signature of changes in ϵNd in the Atlantic and the Pacific is alike in NA but opposite in SO experiments. Discrimination between NA and SO experiments is therefore possible based on the Atlantic pattern of variations in ϵNd and the contrariwise behavior of ϵNd in the Atlantic and the Pacific. In further experiments we examined the effect of variations in magnitudes of particle export fluxes. Within the examined range, and although settling particles represent the only sink of Nd, their effects on ϵNd are relatively small. Our results confirm the large potential of ϵNd as a paleocirculation tracer but also indicate its limitations of quantitative reconstructions of changes in the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation.

Ocean acidification limits temperature-induced poleward expansion of coral habitats around Japan

Using results from four coupled global carbon cycle-climate models combined with in situ observations, we estimate the effects of future global warming and ocean acidification on potential habitats for tropical/subtropical and temperate coral communities in the seas around Japan. The suitability of coral habitats is classified on the basis of the currently observed regional ranges for temperature and saturation states with regard to aragonite (Ωarag). We find that, under the "business as usual" SRES A2 scenario, coral habitats are projected to expand northward by several hundred kilometers by the end of this century. At the same time, coral habitats are projected to become sandwiched between regions where the frequency of coral bleaching will increase, and regions where Ωarag will become too low to support sufficiently high calcification rates. As a result, the habitat suitable for tropical/subtropical corals around Japan may be reduced by half by the 2020s to 2030s, and is projected to disappear by the 2030s to 2040s. The habitat suitable for the temperate coral communities is also projected to decrease, although at a less pronounced rate, due to the higher tolerance of temperate corals for low Ωarag. Our study has two important caveats: first, it does not consider the potential adaptation of the coral communities, which would permit them to colonize habitats that are outside their current range. Second, it also does not consider whether or not coral communities can migrate quickly enough to actually occupy newly emerging habitats. As such, our results serve as a baseline for the assessment of the future evolution of coral habitats, but the consideration of important biological and ecological factors and feedbacks will be required to make more accurate projections.