Efficacy of experimental treatments compared with standard treatments in non-inferiority trials: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Background There is concern that non-inferiority trials might be deliberately designed to conceal that a new treatment is less effective than a standard treatment. In order to test this hypothesis we performed a meta-analysis of non-inferiority trials to assess the average effect of experimental treatments compared with standard treatments. Methods One hundred and seventy non-inferiority treatment trials published in 121 core clinical journals were included. The trials were identified through a search of PubMed (1991 to 20 February 2009). Combined relative risk (RR) from meta-analysis comparing experimental with standard treatments was the main outcome measure. Results The 170 trials contributed a total of 175 independent comparisons of experimental with standard treatments. The combined RR for all 175 comparisons was 0.994 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.978–1.010] using a random-effects model and 1.002 (95% CI 0.996–1.008) using a fixed-effects model. Of the 175 comparisons, experimental treatment was considered to be non-inferior in 130 (74%). The combined RR for these 130 comparisons was 0.995 (95% CI 0.983–1.006) and the point estimate favoured the experimental treatment in 58% (n = 76) and standard treatment in 42% (n = 54). The median non-inferiority margin (RR) pre-specified by trialists was 1.31 [inter-quartile range (IQR) 1.18–1.59]. Conclusion In this meta-analysis of non-inferiority trials the average RR comparing experimental with standard treatments was close to 1. The experimental treatments that gain a verdict of non-inferiority in published trials do not appear to be systematically less effective than the standard treatments. Importantly, publication bias and bias in the design and reporting of the studies cannot be ruled out and may have skewed the study results in favour of the experimental treatments. Further studies are required to examine the importance of such bias.

Segmentation of brain tumor images based on atlas-registration combined with a Markov-Random-Field lesion growth model

We present an automatic method to segment brain tissues from volumetric MRI brain tumor images. The method is based on non-rigid registration of an average atlas in combination with a biomechanically justified tumor growth model to simulate soft-tissue deformations caused by the tumor mass-effect. The tumor growth model, which is formulated as a mesh-free Markov Random Field energy minimization problem, ensures correspondence between the atlas and the patient image, prior to the registration step. The method is non-parametric, simple and fast compared to other approaches while maintaining similar accuracy. It has been evaluated qualitatively and quantitatively with promising results on eight datasets comprising simulated images and real patient data.

CX3CR1 defines functionally distinct intestinal mononuclear phagocyte subsets which maintain their respective functions during homeostatic and inflammatory conditions

Intestinal mononuclear phagocytes (iMNP) are critically involved in mucosal immunity and tissue homeostasis. Two major non-overlapping populations of iMNP have been identified in mice. CD103(+) iMNP represent a migratory population capable of inducing tolerogenic responses, whereas CX3CR1(+) iMNP are resident cells with disease-promoting potential. CX3CR1(+) iMNP can further be subdivided based on differential expression of CX3CR1. Using CX3CR1(GFP/+) ×RAG2(-/-) mice, we demonstrate that CX3CR1(hi) and CX3CR1(lo) iMNP clearly differ with respect to their morphological and functional properties. Compared with CX3CR1(hi) iMNP, CX3CR1(lo) iMNP are polarised towards pro-inflammatory responses already under homeostatic conditions. During a CD4(+) T-cell-induced colitis, CX3CR1(lo) cells accumulate in the inflamed mucosa and upregulate the expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines and triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 (TREM-1). In contrast, CX3CR1(hi) iMNP retain their non-inflammatory profile even during intestinal inflammation. These findings identify two functionally distinct iMNP subsets based on differential expression of CX3CR1 and indicate an unanticipated stability of iMNP.

Expression of antagonists of WNT and BMP signaling after non-rigid fixation of osteotomies

Delayed fracture healing and non-unions represent rare but severe complications in orthopedic surgery. Further knowledge on the mechanisms of the bone repair process and of the development of a pseudoarthrosis is essential to predict and prevent impaired healing of fractures. The present study aimed at elucidating differences in gene expression during the repair of rigidly and non-rigidly fixed osteotomies. For this purpose, the MouseFix™ and the FlexiPlate™ systems (AO Development Institute, Davos, CH), allowing the creation of well defined osteotomies in mouse femora, were employed. A time course following the healing process of the osteotomy was performed and bones and periimplant tissues were analyzed by high-resolution X-ray, MicroCT and by histology. For the assessment of gene expression, Low Density Arrays (LDA) were done. In animals with rigid fixation, X-ray and MicroCT revealed healing of the osteotomy within 3 weeks. Using the FlexiPlate™ system, the osteotomy was still visible by X-ray after 3 weeks and a stabilizing cartilaginous callus was formed. After 4.5 weeks, the callus was remodeled and the osteotomy was, on a histological level, healed. Gene expression studies revealed levels of transcripts encoding proteins associated with inflammatory processes not to be altered in tissues from bones with rigid and non-rigid fixation, respectively. Levels of transcripts encoding proteins of the extracellular matrix and essential for bone cell functions were not increased in the rigidly fixed group when compared to controls without osteotomy. In the FlexiPlate™ group, levels of transcripts encoding the same set of genes were significantly increased 3 weeks after surgery. Expression of transcripts encoding BMPs and BMP antagonists was increased after 3 weeks in repair tissues from bones fixed with FlexiPlate™, as were inhibitors of the WNT signaling pathways. Little changes only were detected in transcript levels of tissues from rigidly fixed bones. The data of the present study suggest that rigid fixation enables accelerated healing of an experimental osteotomy as compared to non-rigid fixation. The changes in the healing process after non-rigid fixation are accompanied by an increase in the levels of transcripts encoding inhibitors of osteogenic pathways and, probably as a consequence, by temporal changes in bone matrix synthesis.

Liver breath tests non-invasively predict higher stages of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis

Effectively assessing subtle hepatic metabolic functions by novel non-invasive tests might be of clinical utility in scoring NAFLD (non-alcoholic fatty liver disease) and in identifying altered metabolic pathways. The present study was conducted on 39 (20 lean and 19 obese) hypertransaminasemic patients with histologically proven NAFLD {ranging from simple steatosis to severe steatohepatitis [NASH (non-alcoholic steatohepatitis)] and fibrosis} and 28 (20 lean and eight overweight) healthy controls, who underwent stable isotope breath testing ([(13)C]methacetin and [(13)C]ketoisocaproate) for microsomal and mitochondrial liver function in relation to histology, serum hyaluronate, as a marker of liver fibrosis, and body size. Compared with healthy subjects and patients with simple steatosis, NASH patients had enhanced methacetin demethylation (P=0.001), but decreased (P=0.001) and delayed (P=0.006) ketoisocaproate decarboxylation, which was inversely related (P=0.001) to the degree of histological fibrosis (r=-0.701), serum hyaluronate (r=-0.644) and body size (r=-0.485). Ketoisocaproate decarboxylation was impaired further in obese patients with NASH, but not in patients with simple steatosis and in overweight controls. NASH and insulin resistance were independently associated with an abnormal ketoisocaproate breath test (P=0.001). The cut-off value of 9.6% cumulative expired (13)CO(2) for ketoisocaproate at 60 min was associated with the highest prediction (positive predictive value, 0.90; negative predictive value, 0.73) for NASH, yielding an overall sensitivity of 68% and specificity of 94%. In conclusion, both microsomal and mitochondrial functions are disturbed in NASH. Therefore stable isotope breath tests may usefully contribute to a better and non-invasive characterization of patients with NAFLD.

An integrative transcranial magnetic stimulation mapping technique using non-linear curve fitting

The aim of this study is to develop a new simple method for analyzing one-dimensional transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) mapping studies in humans. Motor evoked potentials (MEP) were recorded from the abductor pollicis brevis (APB) muscle during stimulation at nine different positions on the scalp along a line passing through the APB hot spot and the vertex. Non-linear curve fitting according to the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was performed on the averaged amplitude values obtained at all points to find the best-fitting symmetrical and asymmetrical peak functions. Several peak functions could be fitted to the experimental data. Across all subjects, a symmetric, bell-shaped curve, the complementary error function (erfc) gave the best results. This function is characterized by three parameters giving its amplitude, position, and width. None of the mathematical functions tested with less or more than three parameters fitted better. The amplitude and position parameters of the erfc were highly correlated with the amplitude at the hot spot and with the location of the center of gravity of the TMS curve. In conclusion, non-linear curve fitting is an accurate method for the mathematical characterization of one-dimensional TMS curves. This is the first method that provides information on amplitude, position and width simultaneously.

High variability and non-neutral evolution of the mammalian avpr1a gene

BACKGROUND: The arginine-vasopressin 1a receptor has been identified as a key determinant for social behaviour in Microtus voles, humans and other mammals. Nevertheless, the genetic bases of complex phenotypic traits like differences in social and mating behaviour among species and individuals remain largely unknown. Contrary to previous studies focusing on differences in the promotor region of the gene, we investigate here the level of functional variation in the coding region (exon 1) of this locus. RESULTS: We detected high sequence diversity between higher mammalian taxa as well as between species of the genus Microtus. This includes length variation and radical amino acid changes, as well as the presence of distinct protein variants within individuals. Additionally, negative selection prevails on most parts of the first exon of the arginine-vasopressin receptor 1a (avpr1a) gene but it contains regions with higher rates of change that harbour positively selected sites. Synonymous and non-synonymous substitution rates in the avpr1a gene are not exceptional compared to other genes, but they exceed those found in related hormone receptors with similar functions. DISCUSSION: These results stress the importance of considering variation in the coding sequence of avpr1a in regards to associations with life history traits (e.g. social behaviour, mating system, habitat requirements) of voles, other mammals and humans in particular.

Sampling-Design Effects on Properties of Species-Area Relationships - A Case Study from Estonian Dry Grassland Communities

Despite widespread use of species-area relationships (SARs), dispute remains over the most representative SAR model. Using data of small-scale SARs of Estonian dry grassland communities, we address three questions: (1) Which model describes these SARs best when known artifacts are excluded? (2) How do deviating sampling procedures (marginal instead of central position of the smaller plots in relation to the largest plot; single values instead of average values; randomly located subplots instead of nested subplots) influence the properties of the SARs? (3) Are those effects likely to bias the selection of the best model? Our general dataset consisted of 16 series of nested-plots (1 cm(2)-100 m(2), any-part system), each of which comprised five series of subplots located in the four corners and the centre of the 100-m(2) plot. Data for the three pairs of compared sampling designs were generated from this dataset by subsampling. Five function types (power, quadratic power, logarithmic, Michaelis-Menten, Lomolino) were fitted with non-linear regression. In some of the communities, we found extremely high species densities (including bryophytes and lichens), namely up to eight species in 1 cm(2) and up to 140 species in 100 m(2), which appear to be the highest documented values on these scales. For SARs constructed from nested-plot average-value data, the regular power function generally was the best model, closely followed by the quadratic power function, while the logarithmic and Michaelis-Menten functions performed poorly throughout. However, the relative fit of the latter two models increased significantly relative to the respective best model when the single-value or random-sampling method was applied, however, the power function normally remained far superior. These results confirm the hypothesis that both single-value and random-sampling approaches cause artifacts by increasing stochasticity in the data, which can lead to the selection of inappropriate models.

Prognosis of HIV-associated non-Hodgkin lymphoma in patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE: We examined survival and prognostic factors of patients who developed HIV-associated non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). DESIGN AND SETTING: Multicohort collaboration of 33 European cohorts. METHODS: We included all cART-naive patients enrolled in cohorts participating in the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) who were aged 16 years or older, started cART at some point after 1 January 1998 and developed NHL after 1 January 1998. Patients had to have a CD4 cell count after 1 January 1998 and one at diagnosis of the NHL. Survival and prognostic factors were estimated using Weibull models, with random effects accounting for heterogeneity between cohorts. RESULTS: Of 67 659 patients who were followed up during 304 940 person-years, 1176 patients were diagnosed with NHL. Eight hundred and forty-seven patients (72%) from 22 cohorts met inclusion criteria. Survival at 1 year was 66% [95% confidence interval (CI) 63-70%] for systemic NHL (n = 763) and 54% (95% CI: 43-65%) for primary brain lymphoma (n = 84). Risk factors for death included low nadir CD4 cell counts and a history of injection drug use. Patients developing NHL on cART had an increased risk of death compared with patients who were cART naive at diagnosis. CONCLUSION: In the era of cART two-thirds of patients diagnosed with HIV-related systemic NHL survive for longer than 1 year after diagnosis. Survival is poorer in patients diagnosed with primary brain lymphoma. More advanced immunodeficiency is the dominant prognostic factor for mortality in patients with HIV-related NHL.

Age modeling of young non-varved lake sediments: methods and limits. Examples from two lakes in Central Chile

High-resolution and highly precise age models for recent lake sediments (last 100–150 years) are essential for quantitative paleoclimate research. These are particularly important for sedimentological and geochemical proxies, where transfer functions cannot be established and calibration must be based upon the relation of sedimentary records to instrumental data. High-precision dating for the calibration period is most critical as it determines directly the quality of the calibration statistics. Here, as an example, we compare radionuclide age models obtained on two high-elevation glacial lakes in the Central Chilean Andes (Laguna Negra: 33°38′S/70°08′W, 2,680 m a.s.l. and Laguna El Ocho: 34°02′S/70°19′W, 3,250 m a.s.l.). We show the different numerical models that produce accurate age-depth chronologies based on 210Pb profiles, and we explain how to obtain reduced age-error bars at the bottom part of the profiles, i.e., typically around the end of the 19th century. In order to constrain the age models, we propose a method with five steps: (i) sampling at irregularly-spaced intervals for 226Ra, 210Pb and 137Cs depending on the stratigraphy and microfacies, (ii) a systematic comparison of numerical models for the calculation of 210Pb-based age models: constant flux constant sedimentation (CFCS), constant initial concentration (CIC), constant rate of supply (CRS) and sediment isotope tomography (SIT), (iii) numerical constraining of the CRS and SIT models with the 137Cs chronomarker of AD 1964 and, (iv) step-wise cross-validation with independent diagnostic environmental stratigraphic markers of known age (e.g., volcanic ash layer, historical flood and earthquakes). In both examples, we also use airborne pollutants such as spheroidal carbonaceous particles (reflecting the history of fossil fuel emissions), excess atmospheric Cu deposition (reflecting the production history of a large local Cu mine), and turbidites related to historical earthquakes. Our results show that the SIT model constrained with the 137Cs AD 1964 peak performs best over the entire chronological profile (last 100–150 years) and yields the smallest standard deviations for the sediment ages. Such precision is critical for the calibration statistics, and ultimately, for the quality of the quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction. The systematic comparison of CRS and SIT models also helps to validate the robustness of the chronologies in different sections of the profile. Although surprisingly poorly known and under-explored in paleolimnological research, the SIT model has a great potential in paleoclimatological reconstructions based on lake sediments

On trend estimation under monotone Gaussian subordination with long-memory: application to fossil pollen series

Fossil pollen data from stratigraphic cores are irregularly spaced in time due to non-linear age-depth relations. Moreover, their marginal distributions may vary over time. We address these features in a nonparametric regression model with errors that are monotone transformations of a latent continuous-time Gaussian process Z(T). Although Z(T) is unobserved, due to monotonicity, under suitable regularity conditions, it can be recovered facilitating further computations such as estimation of the long-memory parameter and the Hermite coefficients. The estimation of Z(T) itself involves estimation of the marginal distribution function of the regression errors. These issues are considered in proposing a plug-in algorithm for optimal bandwidth selection and construction of confidence bands for the trend function. Some high-resolution time series of pollen records from Lago di Origlio in Switzerland, which go back ca. 20,000 years are used to illustrate the methods.

Choosing a random distribution with prescribed risks

We describe several simulation algorithms that yield random probability distributions with given values of risk measures. In case of vanilla risk measures, the algorithms involve combining and transforming random cumulative distribution functions or random Lorenz curves obtained by simulating rather general random probability distributions on the unit interval. A new algorithm based on the simulation of a weighted barycentres array is suggested to generate random probability distributions with a given value of the spectral risk measure.

Kernels and Designs for Modelling Invariant Functions: From Group Invariance to Additivity

We focus on kernels incorporating different kinds of prior knowledge on functions to be approximated by Kriging. A recent result on random fields with paths invariant under a group action is generalised to combinations of composition operators, and a characterisation of kernels leading to random fields with additive paths is obtained as a corollary. A discussion follows on some implications on design of experiments, and it is shown in the case of additive kernels that the so-called class of “axis designs” outperforms Latin hypercubes in terms of the IMSE criterion.

Large deviations for heavy-tailed random elements in convex cones

We prove large deviation results for sums of heavy-tailed random elements in rather general convex cones being semigroups equipped with a rescaling operation by positive real numbers. In difference to previous results for the cone of convex sets, our technique does not use the embedding of cones in linear spaces. Examples include the cone of convex sets with the Minkowski addition, positive half-line with maximum operation and the family of square integrable functions with arithmetic addition and argument rescaling.

Executive functions in 5- to 8-year olds: Developmental changes and relationship to academic achievement

Pronounced improvements in executive functions (EF) during preschool years have been documented in cross-sectional studies. However, longitudinal evidence on EF development during the transition to school and predictive associations between early EF and later school achievement are still scarce. This study examined developmental changes in EF across three time-points, the predictive value of EF for mathematical, reading and spelling skills and explored children's specific academic attainment as a function of early EF. Participants were 323 children following regular education; 160 children were enrolled in prekindergarten (younger cohort: 69 months) and 163 children in kindergarten (older cohort: 78.4 months) at the first assessment. Various tasks of EF were administered three times with an interval of one year each. Mathematical, reading and spelling skills were measured at the last assessment. Individual background characteristics such as vocabulary, non-verbal intelligence and socioeconomic status were included as control variables. In both cohorts, changes in EF were substantial; improvements in EF, however, were larger in preschoolers than school-aged children. EF assessed in preschool accounted for substantial variability in mathematical, reading and spelling achievement two years later, with low EF being especially associated with significant academic disadvantages in early school years. Given that EF continue to develop from preschool into primary school years and that starting with low EF is associated with lower school achievement, EF may be considered as a marker or risk for academic disabilities.