34 resultados para Negative Binomial model


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BACKGROUND: Decompressive laparotomy followed by temporary abdominal closure (TAC) is an established prophylaxis and treatment for abdominal compartment syndrome. The herein presented study aimed at the comparison of volume reserve capacity and development of intra-abdominal hypertension after forced primary abdominal closure and different TAC techniques in a porcine model. METHODS: Eight anesthesized and mechanically ventilated domestic pigs underwent a standardized midline laparotomy. A bag was placed into the abdominal cavity. Before abdominal closure, the bag was prefilled with 3,000 mL water to simulate increased intra-abdominal volume. The intra-abdominal pressure (IAP) was then increased in 2 mm Hg steps up to 30 mm Hg by adding volume (volume reserve capacity) to the intra-abdominal bag. Volume reserve capacity with the corresponding IAP were analyzed and compared for primary abdominal closure, bag silo closure, a zipper system, and vacuum-assisted closure (VAC) with different negative pressures (-50, -100, and -150 mm Hg). Hemodynamic and pulmonary parameters were monitored throughout the experiment. RESULTS: Volume reserve capacity was the highest for bag silo closure followed by the zipper system and VAC with primary abdominal closure providing the least volume reserve capacity in the whole IAP range. Of interest, VAC -50 mm Hg resulted in a lower volume reserve capacity when compared with VAC -100 and -150 mm Hg. Pulmonary and hemodynamic parameters demonstrated no significant differences between primary abdominal closure and the evaluated TAC techniques at all IAP levels. CONCLUSIONS: The present experimental in vivo study indicates that bag silo closure and zipper systems may be favorable TAC techniques after decompressive laparotomy. In contrast, the VAC techniques resulted in lower volume reserve capacity and therefore may bear an increased risk for recurrent intra-abdominal hypertension in the initial phase after decompressive laparotomy.

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We analyze the impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosols on the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over Europe using long-term subdaily station records. We compare the results with a 28-member ensemble of European Centre/Hamburg version 5.4 (ECHAM5.4) general circulation model simulations. Eight stratospheric volcanic eruptions during the instrumental period are investigated. Seasonal all- and clear-sky DTR anomalies are compared with contemporary (approximately 20 year) reference periods. Clear sky is used to eliminate cloud effects and better estimate the signal from the direct radiative forcing of the volcanic aerosols. We do not find a consistent effect of stratospheric aerosols on all-sky DTR. For clear skies, we find average DTR anomalies of −0.08°C (−0.13°C) in the observations (in the model), with the largest effect in the second winter after the eruption. Although the clear-sky DTR anomalies from different stations, volcanic eruptions, and seasons show heterogeneous signals in terms of order of magnitude and sign, the significantly negative DTR anomalies (e.g., after the Tambora eruption) are qualitatively consistent with other studies. Referencing with clear-sky DTR anomalies to the radiative forcing from stratospheric volcanic eruptions, we find the resulting sensitivity to be of the same order of magnitude as previously published estimates for tropospheric aerosols during the so-called “global dimming” period (i.e., 1950s to 1980s). Analyzing cloud cover changes after volcanic eruptions reveals an increase in clear-sky days in both data sets. Quantifying the impact of stratospheric volcanic eruptions on clear-sky DTR over Europe provides valuable information for the study of the radiative effect of stratospheric aerosols and for geo-engineering purposes.

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Justification logics are modal logics that include justifications for the agent's knowledge. So far, there are no decidability results available for justification logics with negative introspection. In this paper, we develop a novel model construction for such logics and show that justification logics with negative introspection are decidable for finite constant specifications.

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Recombinant human erythropoietin (EPO) has been successfully tested as neuroprotectant in brain injury models. The first large clinical trial with stroke patients, however, revealed negative results. Reasons are manifold and may include side-effects such as thrombotic complications or interactions with other medication, EPO concentration, penetration of the blood-brain-barrier and/or route of application. The latter is restricted to systemic application. Here we hypothesize that EPO is neuroprotective in a rat model of acute subdural hemorrhage (ASDH) and that direct cortical application is a feasible route of application in this injury type. The subdural hematoma was surgically evacuated and EPO was applied directly onto the surface of the brain. We injected NaCl, 200, 2000 or 20,000IU EPO per rat i.v. at 15min post-ASDH (400μl autologous venous blood) or NaCl, 0.02, 0.2 or 2IU per rat onto the cortical surface after removal of the subdurally infused blood t at 70min post-ASDH. Arterial blood pressure (MAP), blood chemistry, intracranial pressure (ICP), cerebral blood flow (CBF) and brain tissue oxygen (ptiO2) were assessed during the first hour and lesion volume at 2days after ASDH. EPO 20,000IU/rat (i.v.) elevated ICP significantly. EPO at 200 and 2000IU reduced lesion volume from 38.2±0.6mm(3) (NaCl-treated group) to 28.5±0.9 and 22.2±1.3mm(3) (all p<0.05 vs. NaCl). Cortical application of 0.02IU EPO after ASDH evacuation reduced injury from 36.0±5.2 to 11.2±2.1mm(3) (p=0.007), whereas 0.2IU had no effect (38.0±9.0mm(3)). The highest dose of both application routes (i.v. 20,000IU; cortical 2IU) enlarged the ASDH-induced damage significantly to 46.5±1.7 and 67.9±10.4mm(3) (all p<0.05 vs. NaCl). In order to test whether Tween-20, a solvent of EPO formulation 'NeoRecomon®' was responsible for adverse effects two groups were treated with NaCl or Tween-20 after the evacuation of ASDH, but no difference in lesion volume was detected. In conclusion, EPO is neuroprotective in a model of ASDH in rats and was most efficacious at a very low dose in combination with subdural blood removal. High systemic and topically applied concentrations caused adverse effects on lesion size which were partially due to increased ICP. Thus, patients with traumatic ASDH could be treated with cortically applied EPO but with caution concerning concentration.

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The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the hurricane characteristics are investigated in a set of sensitivity experiments employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The idealised experiments are performed for the case of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The first set of sensitivity experiments with basin-wide changes of the SST magnitude shows that the intensity goes along with changes in the SST, i.e., an increase in SST leads to an intensification of Katrina. Additionally, the trajectory is shifted to the west (east), with increasing (decreasing) SSTs. The main reason is a strengthening of the background flow. The second set of experiments investigates the influence of Loop Current eddies idealised by localised SST anomalies. The intensity of Hurricane Katrina is enhanced with increasing SSTs close to the core of a tropical cyclone. Negative nearby SST anomalies reduce the intensity. The trajectory only changes if positive SST anomalies are located west or north of the hurricane centre. In this case the hurricane is attracted by the SST anomaly which causes an additional moisture source and increased vertical winds.

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BACKGROUND & AIMS: Age is frequently discussed as negative host factor to achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) to antiviral therapy of chronic hepatitis C. However, elderly patients often show advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis as known negative predictive factor. The aim of this study was to assess age as an independent predictive factor during antiviral therapy. METHODS: Overall, 516 hepatitis C patients were treated with pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin, thereof 66 patients ≥60 years. We analysed the impact of host factors (age, gender, fibrosis, haemoglobin, previous hepatitis C treatment) and viral factors (genotype, viral load) on SVR per therapy course by performing a generalized estimating equations (GEE) regression modelling, a matched pair analysis and a classification tree analysis. RESULTS: Overall, SVR per therapy course was 42.9 and 26.1%, respectively, in young and elderly patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes 1/4/6. The corresponding figures for HCV genotypes 2/3 were 74.4 and 84%. In the GEE model, age had no significant influence on achieving SVR. In matched pair analysis, SVR was not different in young and elderly patients (54.2 and 55.9% respectively; P = 0.795 in binominal test). In classification tree analysis, age was not a relevant splitting variable. CONCLUSIONS: Age is not a significant predictive factor for achieving SVR, when relevant confounders are taken into account. As life expectancy in Western Europe at age 60 is more than 20 years, it is reasonable to treat chronic hepatitis C in selected elderly patients with relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis but without major concomitant diseases, as SVR improves survival and reduces carcinogenesis.

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Brain electric mechanisms of temporary, functional binding between brain regions are studied using computation of scalp EEG coherence and phase locking, sensitive to time differences of few milliseconds. However, such results if computed from scalp data are ambiguous since electric sources are spatially oriented. Non-ambiguous results can be obtained using calculated time series of strength of intracerebral model sources. This is illustrated applying LORETA modeling to EEG during resting and meditation. During meditation, time series of LORETA model sources revealed a tendency to decreased left-right intracerebral coherence in the delta band, and to increased anterior-posterior intracerebral coherence in the theta band. An alternate conceptualization of functional binding is based on the observation that brain electric activity is discontinuous, i.e., that it occurs in chunks of up to about 100 ms duration that are detectable as quasi-stable scalp field configurations of brain electric activity, called microstates. Their functional significance is illustrated in spontaneous and event-related paradigms, where microstates associated with imagery- versus abstract-type mentation, or while reading positive versus negative emotion words showed clearly different regions of cortical activation in LORETA tomography. These data support the concept that complete brain functions of higher order such as a momentary thought might be incorporated in temporal chunks of processing in the range of tens to about 100 ms as quasi-stable brain states; during these time windows, subprocesses would be accepted as members of the ongoing chunk of processing.

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We introduce a version of operational set theory, OST−, without a choice operation, which has a machinery for Δ0Δ0 separation based on truth functions and the separation operator, and a new kind of applicative set theory, so-called weak explicit set theory WEST, based on Gödel operations. We show that both the theories and Kripke–Platek set theory KPKP with infinity are pairwise Π1Π1 equivalent. We also show analogous assertions for subtheories with ∈-induction restricted in various ways and for supertheories extended by powerset, beta, limit and Mahlo operations. Whereas the upper bound is given by a refinement of inductive definition in KPKP, the lower bound is by a combination, in a specific way, of realisability, (intuitionistic) forcing and negative interpretations. Thus, despite interpretability between classical theories, we make “a detour via intuitionistic theories”. The combined interpretation, seen as a model construction in the sense of Visser's miniature model theory, is a new way of construction for classical theories and could be said the third kind of model construction ever used which is non-trivial on the logical connective level, after generic extension à la Cohen and Krivine's classical realisability model.

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The dual-effects model of social control proposes that social control leads to increased psychological distress but also to better health practices. However, findings are inconsistent, and recent research suggests that the most effective control is unnoticed by the receiver (i. e., invisible). Yet, investigations of the influence of invisible control on daily negative affect and smoking have been limited. Using daily diaries, we investigated how invisible social control was associated with negative affect and smoking. Overall, 100 smokers (72.0 % men, age M = 40.48, SD = 9.82) and their nonsmoking partners completed electronic diaries from a self-set quit date for 22 consecutive days, reporting received and provided social control, negative affect, and daily smoking. We found in multilevel analyses of the within-person process that on days with higher-than-average invisible control, smokers reported more negative affect and fewer cigarettes smoked. Findings are in line with the assumptions of the dual-effects model of social control: Invisible social control increased daily negative affect and simultaneously reduced smoking at the within-person level.

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The dual-effects model of social control not only assumes that social control leads to better health practices but also arouses psychological distress. However, findings are inconsistent. The present study advances the current literature by examining social control from a dyadic perspective in the context of smoking. In addition, the study examines whether control, continuous smoking abstinence, and affect are differentially related for men and women. Before and three weeks after a self-set quit attempt, we examined 106 smokers (77 men, mean age: 40.67, average number of cigarettes smoked per day: 16.59 [SD=8.52, range=1-40] at baseline and 5.27 [SD=6.97, range=0-40] at follow-up) and their nonsmoking heterosexual partners, assessing received and provided control, continuous abstinence, and affect. With regard to smoker's affective reactions, partner's provided control was related to an increase in positive and to a decrease in negative affect, but only for female smokers. Moreover, the greater the discrepancy between smoker received and partner's provided control was the more positive affect increased and the more negative affect decreased, but again only for female smokers. These findings demonstrate that female smokers' well-being was raised over time if they were not aware of the control attempts of their nonsmoking partners, indicating positive effects of invisible social control. This study's results emphasize the importance of applying a dyadic perspective and taking gender differences in the dual-effects model of social control into account.

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Objectives: The dual-effects model of social control proposes that social control leads to better health practices, but also arouses psychological distress. However, findings are inconsistent in relation to health behavior and psychological distress. Recent research suggests that the most effective control is unnoticed by the receiver (i.e., invisible). There is some evidence that invisible social control is beneficial for positive and negative affective reactions. Yet, investigations of the influence of invisible social control on daily smoking and distress have been limited. In daily diaries, we investigated how invisible social control is associated with number of cigarettes smoked and negative affect on a daily basis. Methods: Overall, 99 smokers (72.0% men, mean age M = 40.48, SD = 9.82) and their non-smoking partners completed electronic diaries from a self-set quit date for 22 consecutive days within the hour before going to bed, reporting received and provided social control, daily number of cigarettes smoked, and negative affect. Results: Multilevel analyses indicated that between-person levels of invisible social control were associated with lower negative affect, whereas they were unrelated to number of cigarettes smoked. On days with higher-than-average invisible social control, smokers reported less cigarettes smoked and more negative affect. Conclusions: Between-person level findings indicate that invisible social control can be beneficial for negative affect. However, findings on the within-person level are in line with the assumptions of the dual-effects model of social control: Invisible social control reduced daily smoking and simultaneously increased daily negative affect within person.

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Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.

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BACKGROUND: Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is a fatal motor neuron disease of childhood that is caused by mutations in the SMN1 gene. Currently, no effective treatment is available. One possible therapeutic approach is the use of antisense oligos (ASOs) to redirect the splicing of the paralogous gene SMN2, thus increasing functional SMN protein production. Various ASOs with different chemical properties are suitable for these applications, including a morpholino oligomer (MO) variant with a particularly excellent safety and efficacy profile. OBJECTIVE: We investigated a 25-nt MO sequence targeting the negative intronic splicing silencer (ISS-N1) 10 to 34 region. METHODS: We administered a 25-nt MO sequence against the ISS-N1 region of SMN2 (HSMN2Ex7D[-10-34]) in the SMAΔ7 mouse model and evaluated the effect and neuropathologic phenotype. We tested different concentrations (from 2 to 24 nM) and delivery protocols (intracerebroventricular injection, systemic injection, or both). We evaluated the treatment efficacy regarding SMN levels, survival, neuromuscular phenotype, and neuropathologic features. RESULTS: We found that a 25-nt MO sequence against the ISS-N1 region of SMN2 (HSMN2Ex7D[-10-34]) exhibited superior efficacy in transgenic SMAΔ7 mice compared with previously described sequences. In our experiments, the combination of local and systemic administration of MO (bare or conjugated to octaguanidine) was the most effective approach for increasing full-length SMN expression, leading to robust improvement in neuropathologic features and survival. Moreover, we found that several small nuclear RNAs were deregulated in SMA mice and that their levels were restored by MO treatment. CONCLUSION: These results indicate that MO-mediated SMA therapy is efficacious and can result in phenotypic rescue, providing important insights for further development of ASO-based therapeutic strategies in SMA patients.

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In the present article, we argue that it may be fruitful to incorporate the ideas of the strength model of self-control into the core assumptions of the well-established attentional control theory (ACT). In ACT, it is assumed that anxiety automatically leads to attention disruption and increased distractibility, which may impair subsequent cognitive or perceptual-motor performance, but only if individuals do not have the ability to counteract this attention disruption. However, ACT does not clarify which process determines whether one can volitionally regulate attention despite experiencing high levels of anxiety. In terms of the strength model of self-control, attention regulation can be viewed as a self-control act depending on the momentary availability of self-control strength. We review literature that has revealed that self-control strength moderates the anxiety-performance relationship, discuss how to integrate these two theoretical models, and offer practical recommendations of how to counteract negative anxiety effects.

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The paper considers panel data methods for estimating ordered logit models with individual-specific correlated unobserved heterogeneity. We show that a popular approach is inconsistent, whereas some consistent and efficient estimators are available, including minimum distance and generalized method-of-moment estimators. A Monte Carlo study reveals the good properties of an alternative estimator that has not been considered in econometric applications before, is simple to implement and almost as efficient. An illustrative application based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel confirms the large negative effect of unemployment on life satisfaction that has been found in the previous literature.