Coaches` subjective talent criteria in top-level soccer

Introduction: In professional soccer, talent selection relies on the subjective judgment of scouts and coaches. To date, little is known about coaches´ “eye for talent” (Christensen, 2009, p. 379) and the nature of the subjective criteria they use to identify those players with the greatest potential to achieve peak performance in adulthood (Williams & Reilly, 2000). Drawing on a constructivist approach (Kelly, 1991), this study explores coaches´ subjective talent criteria. It is assumed that coaches are able to verbalise and specify their talent criteria, and that these are related to their talent selection decisions based on instinct. Methods: Participants and generation of data. Five national youth soccer coaches (Mage = 55.6; SD = 5.03) were investigated at three appointments: (1) talent selection decision based on instinct, (2) semi-structured inductive interview to elicit each coaches´ talent criteria in detail, (3) communicative validation and evaluation of the players by each coach using the repertory grid technique (Fromm, 2004). Data Analysis: Interviews were transcribed and summarized with regard to each specified talent criterion. Each talent criterion was categorized using a bottom-up-approach (meaning categorization, Kvale, 1996). The repertory grid data was analysed using descriptive statistics and correlation analysis. Results and Discussion: For each coach, six to nine talent criteria were elicited and specified. The subjective talent criteria include aspects of personality, cognitive perceptual skills, motor abilities, development, technique, social environment and physical constitution, which shows that the coaches use a multi-dimensional concept of talent. However, more than half of all criteria describe personality characteristics, in particular achievement motivation, volition and self-confidence. In contrast to Morris (2000), this result shows that coaches have a differentiated view of the personality characteristics required to achieve peak performance. As an indication of criterion validity, moderate to high correlations (.57 ≤ r ≤ .81) are found between the evaluations of the players according to the coaches´ talent criteria and their talent selection decision. The study shows that coaches are able to specify their subject talent criteria and that those criteria are strongly related to their instinctive selection decisions. References: Christensen, M. K. (2009). "An Eye for Talent": Talent Identification and the "Practical Sense" of Top-Level Soccer Coaches. Sociology of Sport Journal, 26, 365–382. Fromm, M. (2004). Introduction to the Repertory Grid Interview. Münster: Waxmann. Kelly, G. A. (1991). The Psychology of Personal Constructs: Volume One: Theory and personality. London: Routledge. Kvale, S. (1996). InterViews: An introduction to Qualitative Research Interviewing. Thousand Oaks: Sage. Morris, T. (2000). Psychological characteristics and talent identification in soccer. Journal of Sports Sciences, 18, 715–726. Williams, A. M., & Reilly, T. (2000). Talent identification and development in soccer. Journal of Sports Sciences, 18, 657–667.

A new measure for party coherence: Applying a physics-based concept to the Swiss party system

The paper revives a theoretical definition of party coherence as being composed of two basic elements, cohesion and factionalism, to propose and apply a novel empirical measure based on spin physics. The simultaneous analysis of both components using a single measurement concept is applied to data representing the political beliefs of candidates in the Swiss general elections of 2003 and 2007, proposing a connection between the coherence of the beliefs party members hold and the assessment of parties being at risk of splitting. We also compare our measure with established polarization measures and demonstrate its advantage with respect to multi-dimensional data that lack clear structure. Furthermore, we outline how our analysis supports the distinction between bottom-up and top-down mechanisms of party splitting. In this way, we are able to turn the intuition of coherence into a defined quantitative concept that, additionally, offers a methodological basis for comparative research of party coherence. Our work serves as an example of how a complex systems approach allows to get a new perspective on a long-standing issue in political science.

Use of a perineural coiled catheter at the sciatic nerve in dogs after tibial plateau levelling osteotomy – preliminary observations

The analgesic effects of peripheral nerve blocks can be prolonged with the placement of perineural catheters allowing repeated injections of local anaesthetics in humans. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the clinical suitability of a perineural coiled catheter (PCC) at the sciatic nerve and to evaluate pain during the early post-operative period in dogs after tibial plateau levelling osteotomy. Pre-operatively, a combined block of the sciatic and the femoral nerves was performed under sonographic guidance (ropivacaine 0.5%; 0.3 mL kg−1 per nerve). Thereafter, a PCC was placed near the sciatic nerve. Carprofen (4 mg kg−1 intravenously) was administered at the end of anaesthesia. After surgery, all dogs were randomly assigned to receive four injections of ropivacaine (group R; 0.25%, 0.3 mL kg−1) or NaCl 0.9% (group C; 0.3 mL kg−1) every 6 h through the PCC. Pain was assessed by use of a visual analogue scale (VAS) and a multi-dimensional pain score (4Avet) before surgery (T-1), for 390 min (T0, T30, T60, T120, T180, T240, T300, T360 and T390) as well as 1 day after surgery (Day 1). Methadone (0.1 mg kg−1) was administered each time the VAS was ≥40 mm or the 4Avet was ≥5. At T390 dogs received buprenorphine (0.02 mg kg−1). Data were compared using Mann–Whitney rank sum tests and repeated measures analysis of variance. Regardless of group allocation, 55% of dogs required methadone. VAS was significantly lower at T390 (P = 0.003), and at Day 1 (P = 0.002) and so was 4Avet at Day 1 (P = 0.012) in group R than in group C. Bleeding occurred in one dog at PCC placement and PCC dislodged six times of 47 PCCs placed. Minor complications occurred with PCC but allowed four repeated administrations of ropivacaine or saline over 24 h in 91.5% of the cases.

Evaluation of an inventory for the assessment of critical incidents involving football fans

Introduction: Fan violence is a frequent occurrence in Swiss football (Bundesamt für Polizei, 2015) leading to high costs for prevention and control (Mensch & Maurer, 2014). Various theories put forward an explanation of fan violence, such as the Elaborated Social Identity Model (Drury & Reicher, 2000)and the Aggravation Mitigation Model (Hylander & Guvå, 2010). Important observations from these theories are the multi-dimensional understanding of fan violence and the Dynamics occurring in the fan group. Nevertheless, none of them deal with critical incidents (CIs) which involve a tense atmosphere combined with a higher risk of fan violence. Schumacher Dimech, Brechbühl and Seiler (2015) tackled this gap in research and explored CIs where 43 defining criteria were identified and compiled in an integrated model of CIs. The defining criteria were categorised in four higher-order themes “antecedents” (e.g. a documented history of fan rivalry), “triggers” (e.g. the arrest of a fan), “reactions” (e.g. fans masking themselves) and “consequences” (e.g. fans avoiding communication with fan social workers). Methods: An inventory based on this model is being developed including these 43 criteria. In an exploratory phase, this inventory was presented as an online questionnaire and was completed by 143 individuals. Three main questions are examined: Firstly, the individual items are tested using descriptive analyses. An item analysis is conducted to test reliability, item difficulty and discriminatory power. Secondly, the model’s four higher-order themes are tested using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). Thirdly, differences between sub -groups are explored, such as gender and age-related differences. Results: Respondents rated the items’ importance as high and the quota of incomplete responses was not systematic. Two items were removed from the inventory because of low mean or a high rate of “don’t know”-responses. EFA produced a six-factor solution grouping items into match-related factors, repressive measures, fans’ delinquent behaviour, intra-group behaviour, communication and control and inter-group factors. The item “fans consume alcohol” could not be ordered into any category but was retained since literature accentuates this factor’s influence on fan violence. Analyses examining possible differences between groups are underway. Discussion: Results exploring the adequacy of this inventory assessing defining criteria of CIs in football are promising and thus further evaluative investigation is recommended. This inventory can be used in two ways: as a standardised instrument of assessment for experts evaluating specific CIs and as an instrument for exploring differences in perception and assessment of a CI e.g. gender and age differences, differences between interest groups and stakeholders.

Evaluation of an inventory for the assessment of critical incidents involving football fans

Introduction: Fan violence is a frequent occurrence in Swiss football (Bundesamt für Polizei, 2015) leading to high costs for prevention and control (Mensch & Maurer, 2014). Various theories put forward an explanation of fan violence, such as the Elaborated Social Identity Model (Drury & Reicher, 2000) and the Aggravation Mitigation Model (Hylander & Guvå, 2010). Important observations from these theories are the multi-dimensional understanding of fan violence and the dynamics occurring in the fan group. Nevertheless, none of them deal with critical incidents (CIs) which involve a tense atmosphere combined with a higher risk of fan violence. Schumacher Dimech, Brechbühl and Seiler (2015) tackled this gap in research and explored CIs where 43 defining criteria were identified and compiled in an integrated model of CIs. The defining criteria were categorised in four higher-order themes “antecedents” (e.g. a documented history of fan rivalry), “triggers” (e.g. the arrest of a fan), “reactions” (e.g. fans masking themselves) and “consequences” (e.g. fans avoiding communication with fan social workers). Methods: An inventory based on this model is being developed including these 43 criteria. In an exploratory phase, this inventory was presented as an online questionnaire and was completed by 143 individuals. Three main questions are examined: Firstly, the individual items are tested using descriptive analyses. An item analysis is conducted to test reliability, item difficulty and discriminatory power. Secondly, the model’s four higher-order themes are tested using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). Thirdly, differences between sub-groups are explored, such as gender and agerelated differences. Results: Respondents rated the items’ importance as high and the quota of incomplete responses was not systematic. Two items were removed from the inventory because of low mean or a high rate of “don’t know”-responses. EFA produced a six-factor solution grouping items into match-related factors, repressive measures, fans’ delinquent behaviour, intra-group behaviour, communication and control and inter-group factors. The item “fans consume alcohol” could not be ordered into any category but was retained since literature accentuates this factor’s influence on fan violence. Analyses examining possible differences between groups are underway. Discussion: Results exploring the adequacy of this inventory assessing defining criteria of CIs in football are promising and thus further evaluative investigation is recommended. This inventory can be used in two ways: as a standardised instrument of assessment for experts evaluating specific CIs and as an instrument for exploring differences in perception and assessment of a CI e.g. gender and age differences, differences between interest groups and stakeholders. References: Bundesamt für Polizei. (2015). Jahresbericht 2014. Kriminalitätsbekämpfung Bund. Lage, Massnahmen und Mittel [Electronic Version]. Drury, J., & Reicher, S. (2000). Collective action and psychological change. The emergence of new social identities. British Journal of Social Psychology, 39, 579-604. Hylander, I., & Guvå, G. (2010). Misunderstanding of out-group behaviour: Different interpretations of the same crowd events among police officers and demonstrators. Nordic Psychology, 62, 25-47. Schumacher-Dimech, A., Brechbühl, A. &, Seiler, R. (2016). Dynamics of critical incidents with potentially violent outcomes involving ultra fans: an explorative study. Sport in Society. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1080/17430437.2015.1133597

Higher order elicitability and Osband’s principle

A statistical functional, such as the mean or the median, is called elicitable if there is a scoring function or loss function such that the correct forecast of the functional is the unique minimizer of the expected score. Such scoring functions are called strictly consistent for the functional. The elicitability of a functional opens the possibility to compare competing forecasts and to rank them in terms of their realized scores. In this paper, we explore the notion of elicitability for multi-dimensional functionals and give both necessary and sufficient conditions for strictly consistent scoring functions. We cover the case of functionals with elicitable components, but we also show that one-dimensional functionals that are not elicitable can be a component of a higher order elicitable functional. In the case of the variance, this is a known result. However, an important result of this paper is that spectral risk measures with a spectral measure with finite support are jointly elicitable if one adds the “correct” quantiles. A direct consequence of applied interest is that the pair (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall) is jointly elicitable under mild conditions that are usually fulfilled in risk management applications.

Similarity Mapplet: Interactive Visualization of the Directory of Useful Decoys and ChEMBL in High Dimensional Chemical Spaces

An Internet portal accessible at www.gdb.unibe.ch has been set up to automatically generate color-coded similarity maps of the ChEMBL database in relation to up to two sets of active compounds taken from the enhanced Directory of Useful Decoys (eDUD), a random set of molecules, or up to two sets of user-defined reference molecules. These maps visualize the relationships between the selected compounds and ChEMBL in six different high dimensional chemical spaces, namely MQN (42-D molecular quantum numbers), SMIfp (34-D SMILES fingerprint), APfp (20-D shape fingerprint), Xfp (55-D pharmacophore fingerprint), Sfp (1024-bit substructure fingerprint), and ECfp4 (1024-bit extended connectivity fingerprint). The maps are supplied in form of Java based desktop applications called “similarity mapplets” allowing interactive content browsing and linked to a “Multifingerprint Browser for ChEMBL” (also accessible directly at www.gdb.unibe.ch) to perform nearest neighbor searches. One can obtain six similarity mapplets of ChEMBL relative to random reference compounds, 606 similarity mapplets relative to single eDUD active sets, 30 300 similarity mapplets relative to pairs of eDUD active sets, and any number of similarity mapplets relative to user-defined reference sets to help visualize the structural diversity of compound series in drug optimization projects and their relationship to other known bioactive compounds.

Multi-modal diffeomorphic demons registration based on point-wise mutual information

In this paper we propose a variational approach for multimodal image registration based on the diffeomorphic demons algorithm. Diffeomorphic demons has proven to be a robust and efficient way for intensity-based image registration. However, the main drawback is that it cannot deal with multiple modalities. We propose to replace the standard demons similarity metric (image intensity differences) by point-wise mutual information (PMI) in the energy function. By comparing the accuracy between our PMI based diffeomorphic demons and the B-Spline based free-form deformation approach (FFD) on simulated deformations, we show the proposed algorithm performs significantly better.

Unifying energy minimization and mutual information maximization for robust 2D/3D registration of X-ray and CT images

Similarity measure is one of the main factors that affect the accuracy of intensity-based 2D/3D registration of X-ray fluoroscopy to CT images. Information theory has been used to derive similarity measure for image registration leading to the introduction of mutual information, an accurate similarity measure for multi-modal and mono-modal image registration tasks. However, it is known that the standard mutual information measure only takes intensity values into account without considering spatial information and its robustness is questionable. Previous attempt to incorporate spatial information into mutual information either requires computing the entropy of higher dimensional probability distributions, or is not robust to outliers. In this paper, we show how to incorporate spatial information into mutual information without suffering from these problems. Using a variational approximation derived from the Kullback-Leibler bound, spatial information can be effectively incorporated into mutual information via energy minimization. The resulting similarity measure has a least-squares form and can be effectively minimized by a multi-resolution Levenberg-Marquardt optimizer. Experimental results are presented on datasets of two applications: (a) intra-operative patient pose estimation from a few (e.g. 2) calibrated fluoroscopic images, and (b) post-operative cup alignment estimation from single X-ray radiograph with gonadal shielding.

Prometheus Framework for Fuzzy Information Retrieval in Semantic Spaces

This paper introduces a novel vision for further enhanced Internet of Things services. Based on a variety of data (such as location data, ontology-backed search queries, in- and outdoor conditions) the Prometheus framework is intended to support users with helpful recommendations and information preceding a search for context-aware data. Adapted from artificial intelligence concepts, Prometheus proposes user-readjusted answers on umpteen conditions. A number of potential Prometheus framework applications are illustrated. Added value and possible future studies are discussed in the conclusion.

Book Review: Regulating Code : Good Governance and Better Regulation in the Information Age

Digital technologies have profoundly changed not only the ways we create, distribute, access, use and re-use information but also many of the governance structures we had in place. Overall, "older" institutions at all governance levels have grappled and often failed to master the multi-faceted and multi-directional issues of the Internet. Regulatory entrepreneurs have yet to discover and fully mobilize the potential of digital technologies as an influential factor impacting upon the regulability of the environment and as a potential regulatory tool in themselves. At the same time, we have seen a deterioration of some public spaces and lower prioritization of public objectives, when strong private commercial interests are at play, such as most tellingly in the field of copyright. Less tangibly, private ordering has taken hold and captured through contracts spaces, previously regulated by public law. Code embedded in technology often replaces law. Non-state action has in general proliferated and put serious pressure upon conventional state-centered, command-and-control models. Under the conditions of this "messy" governance, the provision of key public goods, such as freedom of information, has been made difficult or is indeed jeopardized.The grand question is how can we navigate this complex multi-actor, multi-issue space and secure the attainment of fundamental public interest objectives. This is also the question that Ian Brown and Chris Marsden seek to answer with their book, Regulating Code, as recently published under the "Information Revolution and Global Politics" series of MIT Press. This book review critically assesses the bold effort by Brown and Marsden.

SLA-Driven Simulation of Multi-Tenant Scalable Cloud-Distributed Enterprise Information Systems

Cloud Computing is an enabler for delivering large-scale, distributed enterprise applications with strict requirements in terms of performance. It is often the case that such applications have complex scaling and Service Level Agreement (SLA) management requirements. In this paper we present a simulation approach for validating and comparing SLA-aware scaling policies using the CloudSim simulator, using data from an actual Distributed Enterprise Information System (dEIS). We extend CloudSim with concurrent and multi-tenant task simulation capabilities. We then show how different scaling policies can be used for simulating multiple dEIS applications. We present multiple experiments depicting the impact of VM scaling on both datacenter energy consumption and dEIS performance indicators.