Climate variability of the mid- and high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in ensemble simulations from 1500 to 2000 AD

To increase the sparse knowledge of long-term Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate variability, we assess an ensemble of 4 transient simulations over the last 500 yr performed with a state-of-the-art atmosphere ocean general circulation model. The model is forced with reconstructions of solar irradiance, greenhouse gas (GHG) and volcanic aerosol concentrations. A 1990 control simulation shows that the model is able to represent the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and to some extent the South Pacific Dipole (SPD) and the Zonal Wave 3 (ZW3). During the past 500 yr we find that SPD and ZW3 variability remain stable, whereas SAM shows a significant shift towards its positive state during the 20th century. Regional temperatures over South America are strongly influenced by changing both GHG concentrations and volcanic eruptions, whereas precipitation shows no significant response to the varying external forcing. For temperature this stands in contrast to proxy records, suggesting that SH climate is dominated by internal variability rather than external forcing. The underlying dynamics of the temperature changes generally point to a combination of several modes, thus, hampering the possibilities of regional reconstructing the modes from proxy records. The linear imprint of the external forcing is as expected, i.e. a warming for increase in the combined solar and GHG forcing and a cooling after volcanic eruptions. Dynamically, only the increase in SAM with increased combined forcing is simulated.

Accuracy of B-type natriuretic peptide tests to exclude congestive heart failure: systematic review of test accuracy studies

BACKGROUND: Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a major public health problem. The use of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) tests shows promising diagnostic accuracy. Herein, we summarize the evidence on the accuracy of BNP tests in the diagnosis of CHF and compare the performance of rapid enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and standard radioimmunosorbent assay (RIA) tests. METHODS: We searched electronic databases and the reference lists of included studies, and we contacted experts. Data were extracted on the study population, the type of test used, and methods. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots and summary ROC curves were produced and negative likelihood ratios pooled. Random-effect meta-analysis and metaregression were used to combine data and explore sources of between-study heterogeneity. RESULTS: Nineteen studies describing 22 patient populations (9 ELISA and 13 RIA) and 9093 patients were included. The diagnosis of CHF was verified by echocardiography, radionuclide scan, or echocardiography combined with clinical criteria. The pooled negative likelihood ratio overall from random-effect meta-analysis was 0.18 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.13-0.23). It was lower for the ELISA test (0.12; 95% CI, 0.09-0.16) than for the RIA test (0.23; 95% CI, 0.16-0.32). For a pretest probability of 20%, which is typical for patients with suspected CHF in primary care, a negative result of the ELISA test would produce a posttest probability of 2.9%; a negative RIA test, a posttest probability of 5.4%. CONCLUSIONS: The use of BNP tests to rule out CHF in primary care settings could reduce demand for echocardiography. The advantages of rapid ELISA tests need to be balanced against their higher cost.

Structural analysis of B-Box 2 from MuRF1: identification of a novel self-association pattern in a RING-like fold

The B-box motif is the defining feature of the TRIM family of proteins, characterized by a RING finger-B-box-coiled coil tripartite fold. We have elucidated the crystal structure of B-box 2 (B2) from MuRF1, a TRIM protein that supports a wide variety of protein interactions in the sarcomere and regulates the trophic state of striated muscle tissue. MuRF1 B2 coordinates two zinc ions through a cross-brace alpha/beta-topology typical of members of the RING finger superfamily. However, it self-associates into dimers with high affinity. The dimerization pattern is mediated by the helical component of this fold and is unique among RING-like folds. This B2 reveals a long shallow groove that encircles the C-terminal metal binding site ZnII and appears as the defining protein-protein interaction feature of this domain. A cluster of conserved hydrophobic residues in this groove and, in particular, a highly conserved aromatic residue (Y133 in MuRF1 B2) is likely to be central to this role. We expect these findings to aid the future exploration of the cellular function and therapeutic potential of MuRF1.

Radiometrical, hormonal and biological correlates of skeletal growth in the female rat from birth to senescence

OBJECTIVE We investigated the skeletal growth profile of female rats from birth to senescence (100weeks) on the basis of sequential radiometrical, hormonal and biochemical parameters. DESIGN Weaning rats entered the study which was divided into two sections: a) sequential measurements of vertebral and tibial growths and bone mineral density (BMD), estimation of mineral content of the entire skeleton (BMC) and chemical analysis of vertebral Ca; and b) determination of basal and pulsatile growth hormone (rGH), insulin-like growth hormone (IGF-I), estradiol (E2), parathyroid hormone (PTH), osteocalcin (OC) and urinary d-pyridinoline (dp) throughout the experimental period. RESULTS Vertebral and tibial growths ceased at week 25 whereas BMD and BMC as well as total vertebral Ca exhibited a peak bone mass at week 40. rGH pulsatile profiles were significantly higher in younger animals coinciding with the period of active growth and IGF-I peaked at 7weeks, slowly declining thereafter and stabilizing after week 60. OC and dp closely paralleled IGF-I coinciding with the period of enhanced skeletal growth, remaining thereafter in the low range indicative of reduced bone turnover. E2 increased during reproductive life but the lower values subsequently recorded were still in the physiological range, strongly suggesting a protective role of this steroid on bone remodeling. PTH followed a similar profile to E2, but the significance of this after completion of growth remains unclear. CONCLUSIONS Mechanisms governing skeletal growth in the female rat appear similar to those in humans. Bone progression and attainment of peak bone mass are under simultaneous control of rGH, IGF-I and calciotropic hormones and are modulated by E2. This steroid seems to protect the skeleton from resorption before senescence whereas the role of PTH in this context remains uncertain.

Modelling susceptibility of grassland soil to macropore flow

Investigating preferential flow, including macropore flow, is crucial to predicting and preventing point sources of contamination in soil, for example in the vicinity of pumping wells. With a view to advancing groundwater protection, this study aimed (i) to quantify the strength of macropore flow in four representative natural grassland soils on the Swiss plateau, and (ii) to define the parameters that significantly control macropore flow in grassland soil. For each soil type we selected three measurement points on which three successive irrigation experiments were carried out, resulting in a total of 36 irrigations. The strength of macropore flow, parameterized as the cumulated water volume flowing from macropores at a depth of 1 m in response to an irrigation of 60 mm h−1 intensity and 1 h duration, was simulated using the dual-permeability MACRO model. The model calibration was based on the key soil parameters and fine measurements of water content at different depths. Modelling results indicate high performance of macropore flow in all investigated soil types except in gleysols. The volume of water that flowed from macropores and was hence expected to reach groundwater varied between 81% and 94% in brown soils, 59% and 67% in para-brown soils, 43% and 56% in acid brown soils, and 22% and 35% in gleysols. These results show that spreading pesticides and herbicides in pumping well protection zones poses a high risk of contamination and must be strictly prohibited. We also found that organic carbon content was not correlated with the strength of macropore flow, probably due to its very weak variation in our study, while saturated water content showed a negative correlation with macropore flow. The correlation between saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and macropore flow was negative as well, but weak. Macropore flow appears to be controlled by the interaction between the bulk density of the uppermost topsoil layer (0–0.10 m) and the macroporosity of the soil below. This interaction also affects the variations in Ks and saturated water content. Further investigations are needed to better understand the combined effect of all these processes including the exchange between micropore and macropore domains.

From pink to blue and back to pink again: changing the Co( ii ) ligation in a two-dimensional coordination network upon desolvation

Heating of a pink two-dimensional Co(II) coordination network {[Co2(μ2-OH2)(bdc)2(S-nia)2(H2O)(dmf)]·2(dmf)·(H2O)}n (1) built from 1,4-benzenedicarboxylic acid (H2bdc) residues and thionicotinamide (S-nia) ligands initiates a single-crystal-to-single-crystal transition accompanied by removal of both coordinated and co-crystallized solvents. In the dry blue form, [Co(bdc)(S-nia)]n (dry_1), the Co(II) centers changed from an octahedral to a square pyramidal configuration.

From metaphor to practice in the crafting of strategy

The editors of Strategy as Practice, Johnson, Langley, Melin and Whittington, illustrate theoretical perspectives and alternative methodologies of 'strategy as practice' research by reflecting and commenting on selected 'classic' research papers such as Buergi, Jacobs and Roos' "From metaphor to practice in the crafting of strategy". Their paper explores how the link between the hand and the mind might be exploited in the making of strategy. Using Mintzberg's image of a potter, Buergi et al. develop a three-level theoretical schema, progressing from the physiological to the psychological to the social to trace the consequences of the hand-mind link. They discuss their model in view of an indicative case of managers from a large telecommunications firm experimenting with a process for strategy making in which they actively use their hands to construct representations of their organization and its environment.

Transition from adolescence to adulthood in congenital heart disease - Many roads lead to Rome

More than 90% of children born with heart defects reach adulthood. They continue to require specialized medical care. In most countries, their care has to be transferred from the pediatric care environment to specialized adult clinics. This transfer of care usually occurs at a time when adolescents become young adults. Supporting adolescents and emerging adults with congenital heart disease through transition has been recognized as an important task of their treating teams in recent years. An environment where adolescents feel welcome and where education and patient participation are fostered is crucial. For an optimal transition process, patients, their families and all health care providers need to be involved. Different models for transition programs have emerged, depending on local policies and resources. The authors offer insight into established transition programs in Bern and Zurich, Switzerland. Advantages and challenges of different models of care and transition programs are presented.

Electrostatic sampling of trace DNA from clothing.

During acts of physical aggression, offenders frequently come into contact with clothes of the victim, thereby leaving traces of DNA-bearing biological material on the garments. Since tape-lifting and swabbing, the currently established methods for non-destructive trace DNA sampling from clothing, both have their shortcomings in collection efficiency and handling, we thought about a new collection method for these challenging samples. Testing two readily available electrostatic devices for their potential to sample biological material from garments made of different fabrics, we found one of them, the electrostatic dust print lifter (DPL), to perform comparable to well-established sampling with wet cotton swabs. In simulated aggression scenarios, we had the same success rate for the establishment of single aggressor profiles, suitable for database submission, with both the DPL and wet swabbing. However, we lost a substantial amount of information with electrostatic sampling, since almost no mixed aggressor-victim profiles suitable for database entry could be established, compared to conventional swabbing. This study serves as a proof of principle for electrostatic DNA sampling from items of clothing. The technique still requires optimization before it might be used in real casework. But we are confident that in the future it could be an efficient and convenient contribution to the toolbox of forensic practitioners.

Comparative cost-effectiveness of Option B+ for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Malawi.

OBJECTIVE To estimate the cost-effectiveness of prevention of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV with lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant and breastfeeding women ('Option B+') compared with ART during pregnancy or breastfeeding only unless clinically indicated ('Option B'). DESIGN Mathematical modelling study of first and second pregnancy, informed by data from the Malawi Option B+ programme. METHODS Individual-based simulation model. We simulated cohorts of 10 000 women and their infants during two subsequent pregnancies, including the breastfeeding period, with either Option B+ or B. We parameterized the model with data from the literature and by analysing programmatic data. We compared total costs of antenatal and postnatal care, and lifetime costs and disability-adjusted life-years of the infected infants between Option B+ and Option B. RESULTS During the first pregnancy, 15% of the infants born to HIV-infected mothers acquired the infection. With Option B+, 39% of the women were on ART at the beginning of the second pregnancy, compared with 18% with Option B. For second pregnancies, the rates MTCT were 11.3% with Option B+ and 12.3% with Option B. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing the two options ranged between about US$ 500 and US$ 1300 per DALY averted. CONCLUSION Option B+ prevents more vertical transmissions of HIV than Option B, mainly because more women are already on ART at the beginning of the next pregnancy. Option B+ is a cost-effective strategy for PMTCT if the total future costs and lost lifetime of the infected infants are taken into account.