Executive Stock Ownership and Performance: Tracking Faint Traces

We examine the relation between managers' financial interests and firm performance. Since the relation could go in either direction, we cast the analysis in a simultaneous equations framework. For firms involved in acquisitions, we find that acquisition performance and Tobin's Q ratios affect the size of managers' stockholdings. We find no evidence, however, that larger stockholdings lead to better performance. Perhaps management is effectively disciplined by competition in product and labor markets. Alternatively, it may not be necessary for top executives to own stock to the residual claimants. And finally, higher ownership might multiply the opportunities to appropriate corporate wealth.

Performance analysis of a miniature turbine generator for intracorporeal energy harvesting

Replacement intervals of implantable medical devices are commonly dictated by battery life. Therefore, intracorporeal energy harvesting has the potential to reduce the number of surgical interventions by extending the life cycle of active devices. Given the accumulated experience with intravascular devices such as stents, heart valves, and cardiac assist devices, the idea to harvest a small fraction of the hydraulic energy available in the cardiovascular circulation is revisited. The aim of this article is to explore the technical feasibility of harvesting 1 mW electric power using a miniature hydrodynamic turbine powered by about 1% of the cardiac output flow in a peripheral artery. To this end, numerical modelling of the fluid mechanics and experimental verification of the overall performance of a 1:1 scale friction turbine are performed in vitro. The numerical flow model is validated for a range of turbine configurations and flow conditions (up to 250 mL/min) in terms of hydromechanic efficiency; up to 15% could be achieved with the nonoptimized configurations of the study. Although this article does not entail the clinical feasibility of intravascular turbines in terms of hemocompatibility and impact on the circulatory system, the numerical model does provide first estimates of the mechanical shear forces relevant to blood trauma and platelet activation. It is concluded that the time-integrated shear stress exposure is significantly lower than in cardiac assist devices due to lower flow velocities and predominantly laminar flow.

Public service motivation and performance: a critical perspective

Purpose – A growing body of literature points to the importance of public service motivation (PSM) for the performance of public organizations. The purpose of this paper is to assess the method predominantly used for studying this linkage by comparing the findings it yields without and with a correction suggested by Brewer (2006), which removes the common-method bias arising from employee-specific response tendencies. Design/methodology/approach – First, the authors conduct a systematic review of published empirical research on the effects of PSM on performance and show that all studies found have been conducted at the individual level. Performance indicators in all but three studies were obtained by surveying the same employees who were also asked about their PSM. Second, the authors conduct an empirical analysis. Using survey data from 240 organizational units within the Swiss federal government, the paper compares results from an individual-level analysis (comparable to existing research) to two analyses where the data are aggregated to the organizational level, one without and one with the correction for common-method bias suggested by Brewer (2006). Findings – Looking at the Attraction to Policy-Making dimension of PSM, there is an interesting contrast: While this variable is positively correlated with performance in both the individual-level analysis and the aggregated data analysis without the correction for common-method bias, it is not statistically associated with performance in the aggregated data analysis with the correction. Originality/value – The analysis is the first to assess the robustness of the performance-PSM linkage to a correction for common-method bias. The findings place the validity of at least one part of the individual-level linkage between PSM and performance into question.

Feeding mastitis milk to organic dairy calves: effect on health and performance during suckling and on udder health at first calving

BackgroundInfection pathways of S. aureus udder infections in heifers are still not well understood. One hypothesis is that calves become infected with S. aureus via feeding mastitis milk. Especially on small-scale farms, pasteurisers are not economic. The purpose of this randomised comparative study was to investigate the influence of feeding milk containing S. aureus genotype B (SAGTB) on the health and development of calves and udder health of the respective heifers. Additionally, a method reducing the bacterial load to obtain safer feeding milk was tested. Thirty-four calves were fed mastitis milk from cows with subclinical SAGTB mastitis. One group was fed untreated milk (UMG). For the other group, milk was thermised at 61°C for one minute (heat treated milk group¿=¿HMG). After weaning, calves were followed up until first calving. A milk sample of these heifers was taken at first milking to compare udder health of both groups.ResultsThermisation of milk led to an effective reduction of S. aureus in the feeding milk. 78% of the analysed pools were free of S. aureus, a reduction of at least one log was obtained in the other pools.Quarter milk samples revealed that two heifers had a S. aureus intramammary infection, but caused by a genotype different from genotype B.During the suckling period, the UMG had a significantly higher incidence rate of 1.09 diarrhoea cases per 100 calf days at risk compared to 0.26 cases per 100 calf days in the HMG (p¿<¿0.05).ConclusionsUnder the conditions of this study, no effects of feeding milk containing SAGTB on udder health after first calving were observed. But a power analysis indicated that the sample size in the current setup is insufficient to allow for assessment on mastitis risk after SAGTB exposition, as a minimal number of 4 calves infected (vs. 0 in the HMG) would have shown significant effects. High bacterial load, however, was associated with an increased incidence rate of diarrhoea. Thus, thermisation as a minimal preventive measure before feeding mastitis milk to calves might be beneficial for maintaining calf health.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk for fractures: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Data on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and fractures conflict. PURPOSE To assess the risk for hip and nonspine fractures associated with subclinical thyroid dysfunction among prospective cohorts. DATA SOURCES Search of MEDLINE and EMBASE (1946 to 16 March 2014) and reference lists of retrieved articles without language restriction. STUDY SELECTION Two physicians screened and identified prospective cohorts that measured thyroid function and followed participants to assess fracture outcomes. DATA EXTRACTION One reviewer extracted data using a standardized protocol, and another verified data. Both reviewers independently assessed methodological quality of the studies. DATA SYNTHESIS The 7 population-based cohorts of heterogeneous quality included 50,245 participants with 1966 hip and 3281 nonspine fractures. In random-effects models that included the 5 higher-quality studies, the pooled adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of participants with subclinical hyperthyroidism versus euthyrodism were 1.38 (95% CI, 0.92 to 2.07) for hip fractures and 1.20 (CI, 0.83 to 1.72) for nonspine fractures without statistical heterogeneity (P = 0.82 and 0.52, respectively; I2= 0%). Pooled estimates for the 7 cohorts were 1.26 (CI, 0.96 to 1.65) for hip fractures and 1.16 (CI, 0.95 to 1.42) for nonspine fractures. When thyroxine recipients were excluded, the HRs for participants with subclinical hyperthyroidism were 2.16 (CI, 0.87 to 5.37) for hip fractures and 1.43 (CI, 0.73 to 2.78) for nonspine fractures. For participants with subclinical hypothyroidism, HRs from higher-quality studies were 1.12 (CI, 0.83 to 1.51) for hip fractures and 1.04 (CI, 0.76 to 1.42) for nonspine fractures (P for heterogeneity = 0.69 and 0.88, respectively; I2 = 0%). LIMITATIONS Selective reporting cannot be excluded. Adjustment for potential common confounders varied and was not adequately done across all studies. CONCLUSION Subclinical hyperthyroidism might be associated with an increased risk for hip and nonspine fractures, but additional large, high-quality studies are needed. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE Swiss National Science Foundation.

The 'triple contrast' method in experimental wound ballistics and backspatter analysis.

In practical forensic casework, backspatter recovered from shooters' hands can be an indicator of self-inflicted gunshot wounds to the head. In such cases, backspatter retrieved from inside the barrel indicates that the weapon found at the death scene was involved in causing the injury to the head. However, systematic research on the aspects conditioning presence, amount and specific patterns of backspatter is lacking so far. Herein, a new concept of backspatter investigation is presented, comprising staining technique, weapon and target medium: the 'triple contrast method' was developed, tested and is introduced for experimental backspatter analysis. First, mixtures of various proportions of acrylic paint for optical detection, barium sulphate for radiocontrast imaging in computed tomography and fresh human blood for PCR-based DNA profiling were generated (triple mixture) and tested for DNA quantification and short tandem repeat (STR) typing success. All tested mixtures yielded sufficient DNA that produced full STR profiles suitable for forensic identification. Then, for backspatter analysis, sealed foil bags containing the triple mixture were attached to plastic bottles filled with 10 % ballistic gelatine and covered by a 2-3-mm layer of silicone. To simulate backspatter, close contact shots were fired at these models. Endoscopy of the barrel inside revealed coloured backspatter containing typable DNA and radiographic imaging showed a contrasted bullet path in the gelatine. Cross sections of the gelatine core exhibited cracks and fissures stained by the acrylic paint facilitating wound ballistic analysis.

Systematic Review and Cumulative Analysis of Oncologic and Functional Outcomes After Robot-assisted Radical Cystectomy

CONTEXT Although open radical cystectomy (ORC) is still the standard approach, laparoscopic radical cystectomy (LRC) and robot-assisted radical cystectomy (RARC) are increasingly performed. OBJECTIVE To report on a systematic literature review and cumulative analysis of pathologic, oncologic, and functional outcomes of RARC in comparison with ORC and LRC. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION Medline, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched using a free-text protocol including the terms robot-assisted radical cystectomy or da Vinci radical cystectomy or robot* radical cystectomy. RARC case series and studies comparing RARC with either ORC or LRC were collected. A cumulative analysis was conducted. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS The searches retrieved 105 papers, 87 of which reported on pathologic, oncologic, or functional outcomes. Most series were retrospective and had small case numbers, short follow-up, and potential patient selection bias. The lymph node yield during lymph node dissection was 19 (range: 3-55), with half of the series following an extended template (yield range: 11-55). The lymph node-positive rate was 22%. The performance of lymphadenectomy was correlated with surgeon and institutional volume. Cumulative analyses showed no significant difference in lymph node yield between RARC and ORC. Positive surgical margin (PSM) rates were 5.6% (1-1.5% in pT2 disease and 0-25% in pT3 and higher disease). PSM rates did not appear to decrease with sequential case numbers. Cumulative analyses showed no significant difference in rates of surgical margins between RARC and ORC or RARC and LRC. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy use ranged from 0% to 31%, with adjuvant chemotherapy used in 4-29% of patients. Only six series reported a mean follow-up of >36 mo. Three-year disease-free survival (DFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS) rates were 67-76%, 68-83%, and 61-80%, respectively. The 5-yr DFS, CSS, and OS rates were 53-74%, 66-80%, and 39-66%, respectively. Similar to ORC, disease of higher pathologic stage or evidence of lymph node involvement was associated with worse survival. Very limited data were available with respect to functional outcomes. The 12-mo continence rates with continent diversion were 83-100% in men for daytime continence and 66-76% for nighttime continence. In one series, potency was recovered in 63% of patients who were evaluable at 12 mo. CONCLUSIONS Oncologic and functional data from RARC remain immature, and longer-term prospective studies are needed. Cumulative analyses demonstrated that lymph node yields and PSM rates were similar between RARC and ORC. Conclusive long-term survival outcomes for RARC were limited, although oncologic outcomes up to 5 yr were similar to those reported for ORC. PATIENT SUMMARY Although open radical cystectomy (RC) is still regarded as the standard treatment for muscle-invasive bladder cancer, laparoscopic and robot-assisted RCs are becoming more popular. Templates of lymph node dissection, lymph node yields, and positive surgical margin rates are acceptable with robot-assisted RC. Although definitive comparisons with open RC with respect to oncologic or functional outcomes are lacking, early results appear comparable.

Protection and Performance

We examine the linkages between import policy and export performance, extending classic macroeconomic trade effects to more recent concepts from the modern literature on gravity models. We also examine these effects empirically with a panel of global and bilateral trade spanning 15 years. Our emphasis on the role of import policy (i.e. tariffs) of exporters as an explanation of trade volumes contrasts with the recent emphasis on importer policy in the gravity literature. It also reinforces the growing body of evidence on the importance of economic environmental (policy and infrastructure) conditions in explaining relative export performance and is in line with the literature on global value chains.

"Of course I will...": The combined effect of certainty and level of expectancies on persistence and performance

The importance of performance expectancies for the prediction of regulation of behavior and actual performance has long been established. Building on theories from the field of social cognition, we suggest that the level of performance expectancies, as well as the certainty of the expectancy, have a joint influence on an individual’s beliefs and behavior. In two studies (one cross sectional using a sample of secondary school students and one longitudinal using a sample of university students) we found that expectancies more strongly predicted persistence, and subsequent performance, the more certain the expectancy was. This pattern was found even if prior performance was controlled, as in Study 2. The data give an indication that it may be useful to include certainty as an additional variable in expectancy models.

Conservation of threatened habitat types under future climate change – Lessons from plant-distribution models and current extinction trends in southern Germany

A higher risk of future range losses as a result of climate change is expected to be one of the main drivers of extinction trends in vascular plants occurring in habitat types of high conservation value. Nevertheless, the impact of the climate changes of the last 60 years on the current distribution and extinction patterns of plants is still largely unclear. We applied species distribution models to study the impact of environmental variables (climate, soil conditions, land cover, topography), on the current distribution of 18 vascular plant species characteristic of three threatened habitat types in southern Germany: (i) xero-thermophilous vegetation, (ii) mesophilous mountain grasslands (mountain hay meadows and matgrass communities), and (iii) wetland habitats (bogs, fens, and wet meadows). Climate and soil variables were the most important variables affecting plant distributions at a spatial level of 10 × 10 km. Extinction trends in our study area revealed that plant species which occur in wetland habitats faced higher extinction risks than those in xero-thermophilous vegetation, with the risk for species in mesophilous mountain grasslands being intermediary. For three plant species characteristic either of mesophilous mountain grasslands or wetland habitats we showed exemplarily that extinctions from 1950 to the present day have occurred at the edge of the species’ current climatic niche, indicating that climate change has likely been the main driver of extinction. This is largely consistent with current extinction trends reported in other studies. Our study indicates that the analysis of past extinctions is an appropriate means to assess the impact of climate change on species and that vulnerability to climate change is both species- and habitat-specific.

Achieving a more realistic assessment of rockfall hazards by coupling three-dimensional process models and field-based tree-ring data

Sound knowledge of the spatial and temporal patterns of rockfalls is fundamental for the management of this very common hazard in mountain environments. Process-based, three-dimensional simulation models are nowadays capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of rockfall occurrences with reasonable accuracy through the simulation of numerous individual trajectories on highly-resolved digital terrain models. At the same time, however, simulation models typically fail to quantify the ‘real’ frequency of rockfalls (in terms of return intervals). The analysis of impact scars on trees, in contrast, yields real rockfall frequencies, but trees may not be present at the location of interest and rare trajectories may not necessarily be captured due to the limited age of forest stands. In this article, we demonstrate that the coupling of modeling with tree-ring techniques may overcome the limitations inherent to both approaches. Based on the analysis of 64 cells (40 m × 40 m) of a rockfall slope located above a 1631-m long road section in the Swiss Alps, we illustrate results from 488 rockfalls detected in 1260 trees. We illustrate that tree impact data cannot only be used (i) to reconstruct the real frequency of rockfalls for individual cells, but that they also serve (ii) the calibration of the rockfall model Rockyfor3D, as well as (iii) the transformation of simulated trajectories into real frequencies. Calibrated simulation results are in good agreement with real rockfall frequencies and exhibit significant differences in rockfall activity between the cells (zones) along the road section. Real frequencies, expressed as rock passages per meter road section, also enable quantification and direct comparison of the hazard potential between the zones. The contribution provides an approach for hazard zoning procedures that complements traditional methods with a quantification of rockfall frequencies in terms of return intervals through a systematic inclusion of impact records in trees.

People, protected areas and ecosystem services: a qualitative and quantitative analysis of local people's perception and preferences in Côte d'Ivoire

The long-term integrity of protected areas (PAs), and hence the maintenance of related ecosystem services (ES), are dependent on the support of local people. In the present study, local people's perceptions of ecosystem services from PAs and factors that govern local preferences for PAs are assessed. Fourteen study villages were randomly selected from three different protected forest areas and one control site along the southern coast of Côte d'Ivoire. Data was collected through a mixed-method approach, including qualitative semi-structured interviews and a household survey based on hypothetical choice scenarios. Local people's perceptions of ecosystem service provision was decrypted through qualitative content analysis, while the relation between people's preferences and potential factors that affect preferences were analyzed through multinomial models. This study shows that rural villagers do perceive a number of different ecosystem services as benefits from PAs in Côte d'Ivoire. The results based on quantitative data also suggest that local preferences for PAs and related ecosystem services are driven by PAs' management rules, age, and people's dependence on natural resources.

A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 2: Shortcomings and strengths of models and reconstructions

This study compares gridded European seasonal series of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation (PRE) reconstructions with a regional climate simulation over the period 1500–1990. The area is analysed separately for nine subareas that represent the majority of the climate diversity in the European sector. In their spatial structure, an overall good agreement is found between the reconstructed and simulated climate features across Europe, supporting consistency in both products. Systematic biases between both data sets can be explained by a priori known deficiencies in the simulation. Simulations and reconstructions, however, largely differ in the temporal evolution of past climate for European subregions. In particular, the simulated anomalies during the Maunder and Dalton minima show stronger response to changes in the external forcings than recorded in the reconstructions. Although this disagreement is to some extent expected given the prominent role of internal variability in the evolution of regional temperature and precipitation, a certain degree of agreement is a priori expected in variables directly affected by external forcings. In this sense, the inability of the model to reproduce a warm period similar to that recorded for the winters during the first decades of the 18th century in the reconstructions is indicative of fundamental limitations in the simulation that preclude reproducing exceptionally anomalous conditions. Despite these limitations, the simulated climate is a physically consistent data set, which can be used as a benchmark to analyse the consistency and limitations of gridded reconstructions of different variables. A comparison of the leading modes of SAT and PRE variability indicates that reconstructions are too simplistic, especially for precipitation, which is associated with the linear statistical techniques used to generate the reconstructions. The analysis of the co-variability between sea level pressure (SLP) and SAT and PRE in the simulation yields a result which resembles the canonical co-variability recorded in the observations for the 20th century. However, the same analysis for reconstructions exhibits anomalously low correlations, which points towards a lack of dynamical consistency between independent reconstructions.

Genome-wide association studies based on sequence-derived genotypes reveal new QTL associated with conformation and performance traits in the Franches-Montagnes horse breed

To identify novel quantitative trait loci (QTL) within horses, we performed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) based on sequence-level genotypes for conformation and performance traits in the Franches-Montagnes (FM) horse breed. Sequence-level genotypes of FM horses were derived by re-sequencing 30 key founders and imputing 50K data of genotyped horses. In total, we included 1077 FM horses genotyped for ~4 million SNPs and their respective de-regressed breeding values of the traits in the analysis. Based on this dataset, we identified a total of 14 QTL associated with 18 conformation traits and one performance trait. Therefore, our results suggest that the application of sequence-derived genotypes increases the power to identify novel QTL which were not identified previously based on 50K SNP chip data.

Bargaining for power and information : an experimental and theoretical analysis of the interaction between institutions, externalities and adverse selection

Bargaining is the building block of many economic interactions, ranging from bilateral to multilateral encounters and from situations in which the actors are individuals to negotiations between firms or countries. In all these settings, economists have been intrigued for a long time by the fact that some projects, trades or agreements are not realized even though they are mutually beneficial. On the one hand, this has been explained by incomplete information. A firm may not be willing to offer a wage that is acceptable to a qualified worker, because it knows that there are also unqualified workers and cannot distinguish between the two types. This phenomenon is known as adverse selection. On the other hand, it has been argued that even with complete information, the presence of externalities may impede efficient outcomes. To see this, consider the example of climate change. If a subset of countries agrees to curb emissions, non-participant regions benefit from the signatories’ efforts without incurring costs. These free riding opportunities give rise to incentives to strategically improve ones bargaining power that work against the formation of a global agreement. This thesis is concerned with extending our understanding of both factors, adverse selection and externalities. The findings are based on empirical evidence from original laboratory experiments as well as game theoretic modeling. On a very general note, it is demonstrated that the institutions through which agents interact matter to a large extent. Insights are provided about which institutions we should expect to perform better than others, at least in terms of aggregate welfare. Chapters 1 and 2 focus on the problem of adverse selection. Effective operation of markets and other institutions often depends on good information transmission properties. In terms of the example introduced above, a firm is only willing to offer high wages if it receives enough positive signals about the worker’s quality during the application and wage bargaining process. In Chapter 1, it will be shown that repeated interaction coupled with time costs facilitates information transmission. By making the wage bargaining process costly for the worker, the firm is able to obtain more accurate information about the worker’s type. The cost could be pure time cost from delaying agreement or cost of effort arising from a multi-step interviewing process. In Chapter 2, I abstract from time cost and show that communication can play a similar role. The simple fact that a worker states to be of high quality may be informative. In Chapter 3, the focus is on a different source of inefficiency. Agents strive for bargaining power and thus may be motivated by incentives that are at odds with the socially efficient outcome. I have already mentioned the example of climate change. Other examples are coalitions within committees that are formed to secure voting power to block outcomes or groups that commit to different technological standards although a single standard would be optimal (e.g. the format war between HD and BlueRay). It will be shown that such inefficiencies are directly linked to the presence of externalities and a certain degree of irreversibility in actions. I now discuss the three articles in more detail. In Chapter 1, Olivier Bochet and I study a simple bilateral bargaining institution that eliminates trade failures arising from incomplete information. In this setting, a buyer makes offers to a seller in order to acquire a good. Whenever an offer is rejected by the seller, the buyer may submit a further offer. Bargaining is costly, because both parties suffer a (small) time cost after any rejection. The difficulties arise, because the good can be of low or high quality and the quality of the good is only known to the seller. Indeed, without the possibility to make repeated offers, it is too risky for the buyer to offer prices that allow for trade of high quality goods. When allowing for repeated offers, however, at equilibrium both types of goods trade with probability one. We provide an experimental test of these predictions. Buyers gather information about sellers using specific price offers and rates of trade are high, much as the model’s qualitative predictions. We also observe a persistent over-delay before trade occurs, and this mitigates efficiency substantially. Possible channels for over-delay are identified in the form of two behavioral assumptions missing from the standard model, loss aversion (buyers) and haggling (sellers), which reconcile the data with the theoretical predictions. Chapter 2 also studies adverse selection, but interaction between buyers and sellers now takes place within a market rather than isolated pairs. Remarkably, in a market it suffices to let agents communicate in a very simple manner to mitigate trade failures. The key insight is that better informed agents (sellers) are willing to truthfully reveal their private information, because by doing so they are able to reduce search frictions and attract more buyers. Behavior observed in the experimental sessions closely follows the theoretical predictions. As a consequence, costless and non-binding communication (cheap talk) significantly raises rates of trade and welfare. Previous experiments have documented that cheap talk alleviates inefficiencies due to asymmetric information. These findings are explained by pro-social preferences and lie aversion. I use appropriate control treatments to show that such consideration play only a minor role in our market. Instead, the experiment highlights the ability to organize markets as a new channel through which communication can facilitate trade in the presence of private information. In Chapter 3, I theoretically explore coalition formation via multilateral bargaining under complete information. The environment studied is extremely rich in the sense that the model allows for all kinds of externalities. This is achieved by using so-called partition functions, which pin down a coalitional worth for each possible coalition in each possible coalition structure. It is found that although binding agreements can be written, efficiency is not guaranteed, because the negotiation process is inherently non-cooperative. The prospects of cooperation are shown to crucially depend on i) the degree to which players can renegotiate and gradually build up agreements and ii) the absence of a certain type of externalities that can loosely be described as incentives to free ride. Moreover, the willingness to concede bargaining power is identified as a novel reason for gradualism. Another key contribution of the study is that it identifies a strong connection between the Core, one of the most important concepts in cooperative game theory, and the set of environments for which efficiency is attained even without renegotiation.