Cost-effectiveness of different strategies to monitor adults on antiretroviral treatment: a combined analysis of three mathematical models

Background: WHO's 2013 revisions to its Consolidated Guidelines on antiretroviral drugs recommend routine viral load monitoring, rather than clinical or immunological monitoring, as the preferred monitoring approach on the basis of clinical evidence. However, HIV programmes in resource-limited settings require guidance on the most cost-effective use of resources in view of other competing priorities such as expansion of antiretroviral therapy coverage. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of alternative patient monitoring strategies. Methods: We evaluated a range of monitoring strategies, including clinical, CD4 cell count, and viral load monitoring, alone and together, at different frequencies and with different criteria for switching to second-line therapies. We used three independently constructed and validated models simultaneously. We estimated costs on the basis of resource use projected in the models and associated unit costs; we quantified impact as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. We compared alternatives using incremental cost-effectiveness analysis. Findings: All models show that clinical monitoring delivers significant benefit compared with a hypothetical baseline scenario with no monitoring or switching. Regular CD4 cell count monitoring confers a benefit over clinical monitoring alone, at an incremental cost that makes it affordable in more settings than viral load monitoring, which is currently more expensive. Viral load monitoring without CD4 cell count every 6—12 months provides the greatest reductions in morbidity and mortality, but incurs a high cost per DALY averted, resulting in lost opportunities to generate health gains if implemented instead of increasing antiretroviral therapy coverage or expanding antiretroviral therapy eligibility. Interpretation: The priority for HIV programmes should be to expand antiretroviral therapy coverage, firstly at CD4 cell count lower than 350 cells per μL, and then at a CD4 cell count lower than 500 cells per μL, using lower-cost clinical or CD4 monitoring. At current costs, viral load monitoring should be considered only after high antiretroviral therapy coverage has been achieved. Point-of-care technologies and other factors reducing costs might make viral load monitoring more affordable in future. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO.

Economic efficiency analysis of different strategies to control post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection in 3-weekly batch system farms.

The study assessed the economic efficiency of different strategies for the control of post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection (PCV2SI), which have a major economic impact on the pig farming industry worldwide. The control strategies investigated consisted on the combination of up to 5 different control measures. The control measures considered were: (1) PCV2 vaccination of piglets (vac); (2) ensuring age adjusted diet for growers (diets); (3) reduction of stocking density (stock); (4) improvement of biosecurity measures (bios); and (5) total depopulation and repopulation of the farm for the elimination of other major pathogens (DPRP). A model was developed to simulate 5 years production of a pig farm with a 3-weekly batch system and with 100 sows. A PMWS/PCV2SI disease and economic model, based on PMWS severity scores, was linked to the production model in order to assess disease losses. This PMWS severity scores depends on the combination post-weaning mortality, PMWS morbidity in younger pigs and proportion of PCV2 infected pigs observed on farms. The economic analysis investigated eleven different farm scenarios, depending on the number of risk factors present before the intervention. For each strategy, an investment appraisal assessed the extra costs and benefits of reducing a given PMWS severity score to the average score of a slightly affected farm. The net present value obtained for each strategy was then multiplied by the corresponding probability of success to obtain an expected value. A stochastic simulation was performed to account for uncertainty and variability. For moderately affected farms PCV2 vaccination alone was the most cost-efficient strategy, but for highly affected farms it was either PCV2 vaccination alone or in combination with biosecurity measures, with the marginal profitability between 'vac' and 'vac+bios' being small. Other strategies such as 'diets', 'vac+diets' and 'bios+diets' were frequently identified as the second or third best strategy. The mean expected values of the best strategy for a moderately and a highly affected farm were £14,739 and £57,648 after 5 years, respectively. This is the first study to compare economic efficiency of control strategies for PMWS and PCV2SI. The results demonstrate the economic value of PCV2 vaccination, and highlight that on highly affected farms biosecurity measures are required to achieve optimal profitability. The model developed has potential as a farm-level decision support tool for the control of this economically important syndrome.

Nocardial brain abscess: observation of treatment strategies and outcome in Switzerland from 1992 to 1999

BACKGROUND Brain abscesses caused by Nocardia spp. are rare, but life-threatening infections that are notoriously difficult to diagnose and treat and which occur mainly in immunocompromised patients. Standard treatment guidelines are not available. METHODS A systematic search for nocardial brain abscesses from 1992 to 1999 was conducted in Switzerland for the comparison of clinical presentation, treatment strategies and outcome. RESULTS Seven cases were found, for which data of six were available. In 4/6 patients antimicrobial therapy led to a decrease in the size of abscesses. Four of six patients died. The cause of death was likely due to underlying co-morbidities, rather than the nocardial infection. CONCLUSION The finding that treatment was different in each case underscores the lack of therapeutic guidelines.

Gynaecologists' awareness of bone healthcare in Switzerland

PRINCIPLES To assess gynaecologists' awareness of bone healthcare in women and the prevalence of application of national recommendations on bone healthcare in Switzerland. METHODS During the annual meeting of the Swiss Society of Gynaecology and Obstetrics 2012, the Swiss Association against Osteoporosis (SVGO) performed standardised interviews with conference participants (n = 210). Questions addressed responsibility for bone healthcare, and whether diagnostic procedures, initiation of bone-specific treatment and follow-up were performed in accordance with SVGO recommendations. RESULTS The majority of respondents were aged 30-50 years (60%), female (70%) and working as board-certified gynaecologists (69%). Ninety-three percent of respondents considered care for bone health as part of the gynaecologist's expertise. As diagnostic procedures, 44% recommended performing bone densitometry (DXA) only, 34% ordered additional laboratory testing. Seventy-two percent of respondents initiated a bone-specific treatment. Predictors for not performing diagnostic procedures and not initiating a bone-specific treatment were physician's age below 30, being a trainee gynaecologist, and working at a university clinic. Particularly, young trainee gynaecologists working at a university clinic were especially unlikely to initiate a bone-specific treatment (regression coefficient = -2.68; odds ratio [OR] 0.069, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.01-0.61; p = 0.16). Follow-ups were performed by 77% of respondents, but were less likely to be by female physicians (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.09-0.84; p = 0.024). CONCLUSIONS Although the majority of board-certified gynaecologists follow national recommendations on bone healthcare, current medical training in obstetrics and gynaecology does not sufficiently cover the subject of women's health. However, since this is a small study our findings may not reflect the findings in the total population.

Construction and first validation of the comprehensive inventory of mindfulness (CHIME)

Introduction: Measuring trait mindfulness and change in mindfulness may be a crucial prerequisite for the evaluation and further development of mindfulness based interventions for the treatment of mental disorders. This endeavour is nontrivial as current measures cover varying aspects and mindfulness and may have problems regarding validity. This presentation describes the development and validation of a questionnaire for the comprehensive assessment of mindfulness: the Comprehensive Inventory of Mindfulness Experiences (CHIME). Method: The factor structure, reliability, and validity of the CHIME were established in a community sample (N = 298) and a sample of MBSR group participants (N = 161). Results: Factor-analytical procedures supported an eight-factor structure. The structure was tested in a further confirmatory sample (N = 202). The questionnaire and its subscales exhibited good reliability (internal consistency and retest-reliability). Analysis of the measurement invariance of the single items over groups differing in age, gender, meditation experience, and symptom load pointed to the absence of systematic differences in the items' semantic understanding. Parameters reflecting construct validity, criterion validity, and incremental validity as well as change sensitivity were all at least satisfactory. Conclusions: The CHIME is a self-report measure with favorable psychometric properties based on all aspects of mindfulness that are included in current mindfulness scales. This scale may be helpful in the evaluation and further development of mindfulness based interventions.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Monitoring Strategies for Antiretroviral Therapy of HIV Infected Patients in Resource-Limited Settings: Software Tool.

BACKGROUND The cost-effectiveness of routine viral load (VL) monitoring of HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) depends on various factors that differ between settings and across time. Low-cost point-of-care (POC) tests for VL are in development and may make routine VL monitoring affordable in resource-limited settings. We developed a software tool to study the cost-effectiveness of switching to second-line ART with different monitoring strategies, and focused on POC-VL monitoring. METHODS We used a mathematical model to simulate cohorts of patients from start of ART until death. We modeled 13 strategies (no 2nd-line, clinical, CD4 (with or without targeted VL), POC-VL, and laboratory-based VL monitoring, with different frequencies). We included a scenario with identical failure rates across strategies, and one in which routine VL monitoring reduces the risk of failure. We compared lifetime costs and averted disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). We developed an Excel tool to update the results of the model for varying unit costs and cohort characteristics, and conducted several sensitivity analyses varying the input costs. RESULTS Introducing 2nd-line ART had an ICER of US$1651-1766/DALY averted. Compared with clinical monitoring, the ICER of CD4 monitoring was US$1896-US$5488/DALY averted and VL monitoring US$951-US$5813/DALY averted. We found no difference between POC- and laboratory-based VL monitoring, except for the highest measurement frequency (every 6 months), where laboratory-based testing was more effective. Targeted VL monitoring was on the cost-effectiveness frontier only if the difference between 1st- and 2nd-line costs remained large, and if we assumed that routine VL monitoring does not prevent failure. CONCLUSION Compared with the less expensive strategies, the cost-effectiveness of routine VL monitoring essentially depends on the cost of 2nd-line ART. Our Excel tool is useful for determining optimal monitoring strategies for specific settings, with specific sex-and age-distributions and unit costs.

What are the metacognitive costs of young children's overconfidence?

Children typically hold very optimistic views of their own skills but so far, only a few studies have investigated possible correlates of the ability to predict performance accurately. Therefore, this study examined the role of individual differences in performance estimation accuracy as a global metacognitive index for different monitoring and control skills (item-level judgments of learning [JOLs] and confidence judgments [CJs]), metacognitive control processes (allocation of study time and control of answers), and executive functions (cognitive flexibility, inhibition, working memory) in 6-year-olds (N=93). The three groups of under estimators, realists and over estimators differed significantly in their monitoring and control abilities: the under estimators outperformed the over estimators by showing a higher discrimination in CJs between correct and incorrect recognition. Also, the under estimators scored higher on the adequate control of incorrectly recognized items. Regarding the interplay of monitoring and control processes, under estimators spent more time studying items with low JOLs, and relied more systematically on their monitoring when controlling their recognition compared to over estimators. At the same time, the three groups did not differ significantly from each other in their executive functions. Overall, results indicate that differences in performance estimation accuracy are systematically related to other global and item-level metacognitive monitoring and control abilities in children as young as six years of age, while no meaningful association between performance estimation accuracy and executive functions was found.

Guidelines for WB3 Part II: Assessment of conservation strategies

These guidelines are a working instrument for the assessment and documentation of existing and potential strategies for land and water conservation (prevention and mitigation strategies) in DESIRE study sites. DESIRE (Desertification Mitigation and Remediation of Land) is a European Integrated Project. The DESIRE WB 3 methodology was developed by CDE and is based on experiences from Learning for Sustainability (LforS) and WOCAT.

Awareness of Stroke Risk after TIA in Swiss General Practitioners and Hospital Physicians.

BACKGROUND Transient ischemic attacks (TIA) are stroke warning signs and emergency situations, and, if immediately investigated, doctors can intervene to prevent strokes. Nevertheless, many patients delay going to the doctor, and doctors might delay urgently needed investigations and preventative treatments. We set out to determine how much general practitioners (GPs) and hospital physicians (HPs) knew about stroke risk after TIA, and to measure their referral rates. METHODS We used a structured questionnaire to ask GPs and HPs in the catchment area of the University Hospital of Bern to estimate a patient's risk of stroke after TIA. We also assessed their referral behavior. We then statistically analysed their reasons for deciding not to immediately refer patients. RESULTS Of the 1545 physicians, 40% (614) returned the survey. Of these, 75% (457) overestimated stroke risk within 24 hours, and 40% (245) overestimated risk within 3 months after TIA. Only 9% (53) underestimated stroke risk within 24 hours and 26% (158) underestimated risk within 3 months; 78% (473) of physicians overestimated the amount that carotid endarterectomy reduces stroke risk; 93% (543) would rigorously investigate the cause of a TIA, but only 38% (229) would refer TIA patients for urgent investigations "very often". Physicians most commonly gave these reasons for not making emergency referrals: patient's advanced age; patient's preference; patient was multimorbid; and, patient needed long-term care. CONCLUSIONS Although physicians overestimate stroke risk after TIA, their rate of emergency referral is modest, mainly because they tend not to refer multimorbid and elderly patients at the appropriate rate. Since old and frail patients benefit from urgent investigations and treatment after TIA as much as younger patients, future educational campaigns should focus on the importance of emergency evaluations for all TIA patients.

The Dark Side of the Moon: Meta-analytical Impact of Recruitment Strategies on Risk Enrichment in the Clinical High Risk State for Psychosis

Background: The individual risk of developing psychosis after being tested for clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria (posttest risk of psychosis) depends on the underlying risk of the disease of the population from which the person is selected (pretest risk of psychosis), and thus on recruitment strategies. Yet, the impact of recruitment strategies on pretest risk of psychosis is unknown. Methods: Meta-analysis of the pretest risk of psychosis in help-seeking patients selected to undergo CHR assessment: total transitions to psychosis over the pool of patients assessed for potential risk and deemed at risk (CHR+) or not at risk (CHR−). Recruitment strategies (number of outreach activities per study, main target of outreach campaign, and proportion of self-referrals) were the moderators examined in meta-regressions. Results: 11 independent studies met the inclusion criteria, for a total of 2519 (CHR+: n = 1359; CHR−: n = 1160) help-seeking patients undergoing CHR assessment (mean follow-up: 38 months). The overall meta-analytical pretest risk for psychosis in help-seeking patients was 15%, with high heterogeneity (95% CI: 9%–24%, I 2 = 96, P < .001). Recruitment strategies were heterogeneous and opportunistic. Heterogeneity was largely explained by intensive (n = 11, β = −.166, Q = 9.441, P = .002) outreach campaigns primarily targeting the general public (n = 11, β = −1.15, Q = 21.35, P < .001) along with higher proportions of self-referrals (n = 10, β = −.029, Q = 4.262, P = .039), which diluted pretest risk for psychosis in patients undergoing CHR assessment. Conclusions: There is meta-analytical evidence for overall risk enrichment (pretest risk for psychosis at 38monhts = 15%) in help-seeking samples selected for CHR assessment as compared to the general population (pretest risk of psychosis at 38monhts=0.1%). Intensive outreach campaigns predominantly targeting the general population and a higher proportion of self-referrals diluted the pretest risk for psychosis.

Soil indicators to assess the effectiveness of restoration strategies in dryland ecosystems

Soil indicators may be used for assessing both land suitability for restoration and the effectiveness of restoration strategies in restoring ecosystem functioning and services. In this review paper, several soil indicators, which can be used to assess the effectiveness of ecological restoration strategies in dryland ecosystems at different spatial and temporal scales, are discussed. The selected indicators represent the different viewpoints of pedology, ecology, hydrology, and land management. Two overall outcomes stem from the review. (i) The success of restoration projects relies on a proper understanding of their ecology, namely the relationships between soil, plants, hydrology, climate, and land management at different scales, which are particularly complex due to the heterogeneous pattern of ecosystems functioning in drylands. (ii) The selection of the most suitable soil indicators follows a clear identification of the different and sometimes competing ecosystem services that the project is aimed at restoring.

The influence of reading direction on hemianopic reading disorders.

Hemianopic reading impairment is a consequence of a visual field defect to either the right or the left side and is characterized by an increased reading time and reduced reading performance. Depending on the side of the visual field defect, reading will be affected differently: Patients suffering from a visual field defect to the right side have noticeable difficulties in reading fluently with slowing. Patients suffering from a visual field defect to the left usually struggle to find the beginning of a line and read more fluently. It was suggested in the literature that changing the reading direction from horizontal to vertical may be a training strategy to reduce reading problems in patients with hemianopia. The aim of the study was to investigate the influence of reading direction on reading speed in patients with left- or right-sided visual field defects and in healthy controls. METHOD In 13 patients with hemianopia and in 13 age-matched controls, reading speed was calculated for texts in standard as well as in clockwise rotated orientation of 90, 180, and 270°. RESULTS In both groups, text rotation reduced reading speed compared to standard reading. Patients with left-sided hemianopia had the greatest reduction after text rotation. Patients with right-sided hemianopia had the smallest speed reduction in 90° vertically rotated texts. CONCLUSIONS Text rotation has different effects in left- or right-sided hemianopia patients. For patients with left-sided heminanopia, rotation of the text may not be a helpful training strategy, for right-sided hemianopia vertical rotation of the text of 90° may be a beneficial training strategy to reduce reading deficits.