A global historical ozone data set and prominent features of stratospheric variability prior to 1979

We present a vertically resolved zonal mean monthly mean global ozone data set spanning the period 1901 to 2007, called HISTOZ.1.0. It is based on a new approach that combines information from an ensemble of chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations with historical total column ozone information. The CCM simulations incorporate important external drivers of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics (in particular solar and volcanic effects, greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, sea surface temperatures, and the quasi-biennial oscillation). The historical total column ozone observations include ground-based measurements from the 1920s onward and satellite observations from 1970 to 1976. An off-line data assimilation approach is used to combine model simulations, observations, and information on the observation error. The period starting in 1979 was used for validation with existing ozone data sets and therefore only ground-based measurements were assimilated. Results demonstrate considerable skill from the CCM simulations alone. Assimilating observations provides additional skill for total column ozone. With respect to the vertical ozone distribution, assimilating observations increases on average the correlation with a reference data set, but does not decrease the mean squared error. Analyses of HISTOZ.1.0 with respect to the effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the 11 yr solar cycle on stratospheric ozone from 1934 to 1979 qualitatively confirm previous studies that focussed on the post-1979 period. The ENSO signature exhibits a much clearer imprint of a change in strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation compared to the post-1979 period. The imprint of the 11 yr solar cycle is slightly weaker in the earlier period. Furthermore, the total column ozone increase from the 1950s to around 1970 at northern mid-latitudes is briefly discussed. Indications for contributions of a tropospheric ozone increase, greenhouse gases, and changes in atmospheric circulation are found. Finally, the paper points at several possible future improvements of HISTOZ.1.0.

Non-invasive and non-occlusive blood pressure estimation via a chest sensor

The clinical demand for a device to monitor Blood Pressure (BP) in ambulatory scenarios with minimal use of inflation cuffs is increasing. Based on the so-called Pulse Wave Velocity (PWV) principle, this paper introduces and evaluates a novel concept of BP monitor that can be fully integrated within a chest sensor. After a preliminary calibration, the sensor provides non-occlusive beat-by-beat estimations of Mean Arterial Pressure (MAP) by measuring the Pulse Transit Time (PTT) of arterial pressure pulses travelling from the ascending aorta towards the subcutaneous vasculature of the chest. In a cohort of 15 healthy male subjects, a total of 462 simultaneous readings consisting of reference MAP and chest PTT were acquired. Each subject was recorded at three different days: D, D+3 and D+14. Overall, the implemented protocol induced MAP values to range from 80 ± 6 mmHg in baseline, to 107 ± 9 mmHg during isometric handgrip maneuvers. Agreement between reference and chest-sensor MAP values was tested by using intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC = 0.78) and Bland-Altman analysis (mean error = 0.7 mmHg, standard deviation = 5.1 mmHg). The cumulative percentage of MAP values provided by the chest sensor falling within a range of ±5 mmHg compared to reference MAP readings was of 70%, within ±10 mmHg was of 91%, and within ±15mmHg was of 98%. These results point at the fact that the chest sensor complies with the British Hypertension Society (BHS) requirements of Grade A BP monitors, when applied to MAP readings. Grade A performance was maintained even two weeks after having performed the initial subject-dependent calibration. In conclusion, this paper introduces a sensor and a calibration strategy to perform MAP measurements at the chest. The encouraging performance of the presented technique paves the way towards an ambulatory-compliant, continuous and non-occlusive BP monitoring system.

High prevalence but limited evidence in complementary and alternative medicine: guidelines for future research

The use of complementary and alternative Medicine (CAM) has increased over the past two decades in Europe. Nonetheless, research investigating the evidence to support its use remains limited. The CAMbrella project funded by the European Commission aimed to develop a strategic research agenda starting by systematically evaluating the state of CAM in the EU. CAMbrella involved 9 work packages covering issues such as the definition of CAM; its legal status, provision and use in the EU; and a synthesis of international research perspectives. Based on the work package reports, we developed a strategic and methodologically robust research roadmap based on expert workshops, a systematic Delphi-based process and a final consensus conference. The CAMbrella project suggests six core areas for research to examine the potential contribution of CAM to the health care challenges faced by the EU. These areas include evaluating the prevalence of CAM use in Europe; the EU cititzens’ needs and attitudes regarding CAM; the safety of CAM; the comparative effectiveness of CAM; the effects of meaning and context on CAM outcomes; and different models for integrating CAM into existing health care systems. CAM research should use methods generally accepted in the evaluation of health services, including comparative effectiveness studies and mixed-methods designs. A research strategy is urgently needed, ideally led by a European CAM coordinating research office dedicated to fostering systematic communication between EU governments, the public, charitable and industry funders, researchers and other stakeholders. A European Centre for CAM should also be established to monitor and further a coordinated research strategy with sufficient funds to commission and promote high quality, independent research focusing on the public’s health needs and pan-European collaboration. There is a disparity between highly prevalent use of CAM in Europe and solid knowledge about it. A strategic approach on CAM research should be established to investigate the identified gaps of knowledge and to address upcoming health care challenges.

Functional error modeling for uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology

Approximate models (proxies) can be employed to reduce the computational costs of estimating uncertainty. The price to pay is that the approximations introduced by the proxy model can lead to a biased estimation. To avoid this problem and ensure a reliable uncertainty quantification, we propose to combine functional data analysis and machine learning to build error models that allow us to obtain an accurate prediction of the exact response without solving the exact model for all realizations. We build the relationship between proxy and exact model on a learning set of geostatistical realizations for which both exact and approximate solvers are run. Functional principal components analysis (FPCA) is used to investigate the variability in the two sets of curves and reduce the dimensionality of the problem while maximizing the retained information. Once obtained, the error model can be used to predict the exact response of any realization on the basis of the sole proxy response. This methodology is purpose-oriented as the error model is constructed directly for the quantity of interest, rather than for the state of the system. Also, the dimensionality reduction performed by FPCA allows a diagnostic of the quality of the error model to assess the informativeness of the learning set and the fidelity of the proxy to the exact model. The possibility of obtaining a prediction of the exact response for any newly generated realization suggests that the methodology can be effectively used beyond the context of uncertainty quantification, in particular for Bayesian inference and optimization.

Prophylaxis of infectious complications with colony-stimulating factors in adult cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy-evidence-based guidelines from the Infectious Diseases Working Party AGIHO of the German Society for Haematology and Medical Oncology (DGHO).

BACKGROUND Current evidence on myelopoietic growth factors is difficult to overview for the practicing haematologist/oncologist. International guidelines are sometimes conflicting, exclude certain patient groups, or cannot directly be applied to the German health system. This guideline by the Infectious Diseases Working Party (AGIHO) of the German Society of Haematology and Medical Oncology (DGHO) gives evidence-based recommendations for the use of G-CSF, pegylated G-CSF, and biosimilars to prevent infectious complications in cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy, including those with haematological malignancies. METHODS We systematically searched and evaluated current evidence. An expert panel discussed the results and recommendations. We then compared our recommendations to current international guidelines. RESULTS We summarised the data from eligible studies in evidence tables, developed recommendations for different entities and risk groups. CONCLUSION Comprehensive literature search and expert panel consensus confirmed many key recommendations given by international guidelines. Evidence for growth factors during acute myeloid leukaemia induction chemotherapy and pegfilgrastim use in haematological malignancies was rated lower compared with other guidelines.

Does the Use of Mobile Devices (Tablets and Smartphones) Affect Stated Choice Behavior in Web Surveys? An Application to Environmental Valuation

Web surveys are becoming increasingly popular in survey research. Compared with face-to-face, telephone and mail surveys, web surveys may contain a different and new source of measurement error and bias: the type of device that respondents use to answer the survey questions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that tests whether the use of mobile devices affects survey characteristics and stated preferences in a web-based choice experiment. The web survey was carried out in Germany with 3,400 respondents, of which 12 per cent used a mobile device (i.e. tablet or smartphone), and comprised a stated choice experiment on externalities of renewable energy production using wind, solar and biomass. Our main finding is that survey characteristics such as interview length and acquiescence tendency are affected by the device used. In contrast to what might be expected, we find that, compared with respondents using desktop computers and laptops, mobile device users spent more time to answer the survey and are less likely to be prone to acquiescence bias. In the choice experiment, mobile device users tended to be more consistent in their stated choices, and there are differences in willingness to pay between both subsamples.

Disclosing and reporting medical errors: Cross-sectional survey of Swiss anaesthesiologists.

BACKGROUND There is limited research on anaesthesiologists' attitudes and experiences regarding medical error communication, particularly concerning disclosing errors to patients. OBJECTIVE To characterise anaesthesiologists' attitudes and experiences regarding disclosing errors to patients and reporting errors within the hospital, and to examine factors influencing their willingness to disclose or report errors. DESIGN Cross-sectional survey. SETTING Switzerland's five university hospitals' departments of anaesthesia in 2012/2013. PARTICIPANTS Two hundred and eighty-one clinically active anaesthesiologists. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Anaesthesiologists' attitudes and experiences regarding medical error communication. RESULTS The overall response rate of the survey was 52% (281/542). Respondents broadly endorsed disclosing harmful errors to patients (100% serious, 77% minor errors, 19% near misses), but also reported factors that might make them less likely to actually disclose such errors. Only 12% of respondents had previously received training on how to disclose errors to patients, although 93% were interested in receiving training. Overall, 97% of respondents agreed that serious errors should be reported, but willingness to report minor errors (74%) and near misses (59%) was lower. Respondents were more likely to strongly agree that serious errors should be reported if they also thought that their hospital would implement systematic changes after errors were reported [(odds ratio, 2.097 (95% confidence interval, 1.16 to 3.81)]. Significant differences in attitudes between departments regarding error disclosure and reporting were noted. CONCLUSION Willingness to disclose or report errors varied widely between hospitals. Thus, heads of department and hospital chiefs need to be aware of the importance of local culture when it comes to error communication. Error disclosure training and improving feedback on how error reports are being used to improve patient safety may also be important steps in increasing anaesthesiologists' communication of errors.

Prediction of Trabecular Bone Anisotropy from Quantitative Computed Tomography using Supervised Learning and a Novel Morphometric Feature Descriptor

Patient-specific biomechanical models including local bone mineral density and anisotropy have gained importance for assessing musculoskeletal disorders. However the trabecular bone anisotropy captured by high-resolution imaging is only available at the peripheral skeleton in clinical practice. In this work, we propose a supervised learning approach to predict trabecular bone anisotropy that builds on a novel set of pose invariant feature descriptors. The statistical relationship between trabecular bone anisotropy and feature descriptors were learned from a database of pairs of high resolution QCT and clinical QCT reconstructions. On a set of leave-one-out experiments, we compared the accuracy of the proposed approach to previous ones, and report a mean prediction error of 6% for the tensor norm, 6% for the degree of anisotropy and 19◦ for the principal tensor direction. These findings show the potential of the proposed approach to predict trabecular bone anisotropy from clinically available QCT images.

Does the use of mobile devices (tablets and smartphones) affect survey quality and choice behaviour in web surveys?

Web surveys are becoming increasingly popular in survey research including stated preference surveys. Compared with face-to-face, telephone and mail surveys, web surveys may contain a different and new source of measurement error and bias: the type of device that respondents use to answer the survey questions. This is the first study that tests whether the use of mobile devices, tablets or smartphones, affects survey characteristics and stated preferences in a web-based choice experiment. The web survey on expanding renewable energy production in Germany was carried out with 3182 respondents, of which 12% used a mobile device. Propensity score matching is used to account for selection bias in the use of mobile devices for survey completion. We find that mobile device users spent more time than desktop/laptop users to answer the survey. Yet, desktop/laptop users and mobile device users do not differ in acquiescence tendency as an indicator of extreme response patterns. For mobile device users only, we find a negative correlation between screen size and interview length and a positive correlation between screen size and acquiescence tendency. In the choice experiment data, we do not find significant differences in the tendency to choose the status quo option and scale between both subsamples. However, some of the estimates of implicit prices differ, albeit not in a unidirectional fashion. Model results for mobile device users indicate a U-shaped relationship between error variance and screen size. Together, the results suggest that using mobile devices is not detrimental to survey quality.

Dating prograde fluid pulses during subduction by in situ U–Pb and oxygen isotope analysis

Keywords High-pressure fluids · Whiteschists · U–Pb dating · Oxygen isotopes · Ion microprobe · Metasomatism Introduction The subduction of crustal material to mantle depths and its chemical modification during burial and exhumation contribute to element recycling in the mantle and the formation of new crust through arc magmatism. Crustal rocks that Abstract The Dora-Maira whiteschists derive from metasomatically altered granites that experienced ultrahighpressure metamorphism at ~750 °C and 40 kbar during the Alpine orogeny. In order to investigate the P–T–time– fluid evolution of the whiteschists, we obtained U–Pb ages from zircon and monazite and combined those with trace element composition and oxygen isotopes of the accessory minerals and coexisting garnet. Zircon cores are the only remnants of the granitic protolith and still preserve a Permian age, magmatic trace element compositions and δ18O of ~10 ‰. Thermodynamic modelling of Si-rich and Si-poor whiteschist compositions shows that there are two main fluid pulses during prograde subduction between 20 and 40 kbar. In Si-poor samples, the breakdown of chlorite to garnet + fluid occurs at ~22 kbar. A first zircon rim directly overgrowing the cores has inclusions of prograde phlogopite and HREE-enriched patterns indicating zircon growth at the onset of garnet formation. A second main fluid pulse is documented close to peak metamorphic conditions in both Si-rich and Si-poor whiteschist when talc + kyanite react to garnet + coesite + fluid. A second metamorphic overgrowth on zircon with HREE depletion was observed in the Si-poor whiteschists, whereas a single metamorphic overgrowth capturing phengite and talc inclusions was observed in the Si-rich whiteschists. Garnet rims, zircon rims and monazite are in chemical and isotopic equilibrium for oxygen, demonstrating that they all formed at peak metamorphism at 35 Ma as constrained by the age of monazite (34.7 ± 0.4 Ma) and zircon rims (35.1 ± 0.8 Ma). The prograde zircon rim in Si-poor whiteschists has an age that is within error indistinguishable from the age of peak metamorphic conditions, consistent with a minimum rate of subduction of 2 cm/year for the Dora-Maira unit. Oxygen isotope values for zircon rims, monazite and garnet are equal within error at 6.4 ± 0.4 ‰, which is in line with closed-system equilibrium fractionation during prograde to peak temperatures. The resulting equilibrium Δ18Ozircon-monazite at 700 ± 20 °C is 0.1 ± 0.7 ‰. The in situ oxygen isotope data argue against an externally derived input of fluids into the whiteschists. Instead, fluidassisted zircon and monazite recrystallisation can be linked to internal dehydration reactions during prograde subduction. We propose that the major metasomatic event affecting the granite protolith was related to hydrothermal seafloor alteration post-dating Jurassic rifting, well before the onset of Alpine subduction.

Methods for preparing and counting biochemical varves

Four different preparation and counting methods for biochemical varves were compared in order to assess counting errors and to standardize these techniques. The properties of two embedding methods, namely the shock-freeze, freeze-dry and the water-acetone-epoxy-exchange method, are discussed. Varve counts were carried out on fresh sediment and on sediment thin-sections, on the latter by manual and by automated counting using image-analysis software. Counting on fresh sediment and using image-analysis generally underestimated the number of varves, especially in sections with inconspicuous varves. A comparison between multiple varve counts carried out by a single analyst and different analysts showed no significant differences in the mean varve counts.

Treatment issues in spontaneous cervicocephalic artery dissections

The management of cervicocephalic arterial dissections raises many unsolved issues such as: how to best acutely treat patients who present with ischemic stroke or occasionally with sub-arachnoid hemorrhage? How to best prevent ischemic stroke in patients who present with purely local signs such as headache, painful Horner Syndrome or neck pain? How long and how should patients be treated after cervicocephalic arterial dissections? Can patients resume their sports activities and when? The consensus is that, given the well-established initial thromboembolic risk, an urgent antithrombotic treatment is required in patients with a recent nonhemorrhagic cervicocephalic arterial dissection, but the type of antithrombotic treatment - anticoagulants or aspirin - as well as the indication for a local arterial treatment such as angioplasty/stenting remain debated. Evidence from a randomized clinical trial would be welcome but such a trial raises major issues of methodology, feasibility and funding. Meanwhile, cervicocephalic arterial dissection remains a situation when a bedside clinician should use, on a case-by-case basis, best clinical judgment and adopt a stepped care approach in the minority of patients who deteriorate despite initial treatment.

Stress free configuration of the human eye

Numerical simulations of eye globes often rely on topographies that have been measured in vivo using devices such as the Pentacam or OCT. The topographies, which represent the form of the already stressed eye under the existing intraocular pressure, introduce approximations in the analysis. The accuracy of the simulations could be improved if either the stress state of the eye under the effect of intraocular pressure is determined, or the stress-free form of the eye estimated prior to conducting the analysis. This study reviews earlier attempts to address this problem and assesses the performance of an iterative technique proposed by Pandolfi and Holzapfel [1], which is both simple to implement and promises high accuracy in estimating the eye's stress-free form. A parametric study has been conducted and demonstrated reliance of the error level on the level of flexibility of the eye model, especially in the cornea region. However, in all cases considered 3-4 analysis iterations were sufficient to produce a stress-free form with average errors in node location <10(-6)mm and a maximal error <10(-4)mm. This error level, which is similar to what has been achieved with other methods and orders of magnitude lower than the accuracy of current clinical topography systems, justifies the use of the technique as a pre-processing step in ocular numerical simulations.

Guidelines for treatment of atopic eczema (atopic dermatitis) Part II

The existing evidence for treatment of atopic eczema (atopic dermatitis, AE) is evaluated using the national standard Appraisal of Guidelines Research and Evaluation. The consensus process consisted of a nominal group process and a DELPHI procedure. Management of AE must consider the individual symptomatic variability of the disease. Basic therapy is focused on hydrating topical treatment, and avoidance of specific and unspecific provocation factors. Anti-inflammatory treatment based on topical glucocorticosteroids and topical calcineurin inhibitors (TCI) is used for exacerbation management and more recently for proactive therapy in selected cases. Topical corticosteroids remain the mainstay of therapy, but the TCI tacrolimus and pimecrolimus are preferred in certain locations. Systemic immune-suppressive treatment is an option for severe refractory cases. Microbial colonization and superinfection may induce disease exacerbation and can justify additional antimicrobial treatment. Adjuvant therapy includes UV irradiation preferably with UVA1 wavelength or UVB 311 nm. Dietary recommendations should be specific and given only in diagnosed individual food allergy. Allergen-specific immunotherapy to aeroallergens may be useful in selected cases. Stress-induced exacerbations may make psychosomatic counselling recommendable. 'Eczema school' educational programs have been proven to be helpful. Pruritus is targeted with the majority of the recommended therapies, but some patients need additional antipruritic therapies.

Guidelines for treatment of atopic eczema (atopic dermatitis) part I

The existing evidence for treatment of atopic eczema (atopic dermatitis, AE) is evaluated using the national standard Appraisal of Guidelines Research and Evaluation. The consensus process consisted of a nominal group process and a DELPHI procedure. Management of AE must consider the individual symptomatic variability of the disease. Basic therapy is focused on hydrating topical treatment, and avoidance of specific and unspecific provocation factors. Anti-inflammatory treatment based on topical glucocorticosteroids and topical calcineurin inhibitors (TCI) is used for exacerbation management and more recently for proactive therapy in selected cases. Topical corticosteroids remain the mainstay of therapy, but the TCI tacrolimus and pimecrolimus are preferred in certain locations. Systemic immune-suppressive treatment is an option for severe refractory cases. Microbial colonization and superinfection may induce disease exacerbation and can justify additional antimicrobial treatment. Adjuvant therapy includes UV irradiation preferably with UVA1 wavelength or UVB 311 nm. Dietary recommendations should be specific and given only in diagnosed individual food allergy. Allergen-specific immunotherapy to aeroallergens may be useful in selected cases. Stress-induced exacerbations may make psychosomatic counselling recommendable. 'Eczema school' educational programs have been proven to be helpful. Pruritus is targeted with the majority of the recommended therapies, but some patients need additional antipruritic therapies.