Contribution of Genetic Background, Traditional Risk Factors, and HIV-Related Factors to Coronary Artery Disease Events in HIV-Positive Persons

Background Persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have increased rates of coronary artery disease (CAD). The relative contribution of genetic background, HIV-related factors, antiretroviral medications, and traditional risk factors to CAD has not been fully evaluated in the setting of HIV infection. Methods In the general population, 23 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were shown to be associated with CAD through genome-wide association analysis. Using the Metabochip, we genotyped 1875 HIV-positive, white individuals enrolled in 24 HIV observational studies, including 571 participants with a first CAD event during the 9-year study period and 1304 controls matched on sex and cohort. Results A genetic risk score built from 23 CAD-associated SNPs contributed significantly to CAD (P = 2.9×10−4). In the final multivariable model, participants with an unfavorable genetic background (top genetic score quartile) had a CAD odds ratio (OR) of 1.47 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05–2.04). This effect was similar to hypertension (OR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.06–1.73), hypercholesterolemia (OR = 1.51; 95% CI, 1.16–1.96), diabetes (OR = 1.66; 95% CI, 1.10–2.49), ≥1 year lopinavir exposure (OR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.06–1.73), and current abacavir treatment (OR = 1.56; 95% CI, 1.17–2.07). The effect of the genetic risk score was additive to the effect of nongenetic CAD risk factors, and did not change after adjustment for family history of CAD. Conclusions In the setting of HIV infection, the effect of an unfavorable genetic background was similar to traditional CAD risk factors and certain adverse antiretroviral exposures. Genetic testing may provide prognostic information complementary to family history of CAD.

A comparison of estimated glomerular filtration rates using Cockcroft−Gault and the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration estimating equations in HIV infection

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine whether the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI)- or Cockcroft-Gault (CG)-based estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) performs better in the cohort setting for predicting moderate/advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) or end-stage renal disease (ESRD). METHODS: A total of 9521 persons in the EuroSIDA study contributed 133 873 eGFRs. Poisson regression was used to model the incidence of moderate and advanced CKD (confirmed eGFR < 60 and < 30 mL/min/1.73 m(2) , respectively) or ESRD (fatal/nonfatal) using CG and CKD-EPI eGFRs. RESULTS: Of 133 873 eGFR values, the ratio of CG to CKD-EPI was ≥ 1.1 in 22 092 (16.5%) and the difference between them (CG minus CKD-EPI) was ≥ 10 mL/min/1.73 m(2) in 20 867 (15.6%). Differences between CKD-EPI and CG were much greater when CG was not standardized for body surface area (BSA). A total of 403 persons developed moderate CKD using CG [incidence 8.9/1000 person-years of follow-up (PYFU); 95% confidence interval (CI) 8.0-9.8] and 364 using CKD-EPI (incidence 7.3/1000 PYFU; 95% CI 6.5-8.0). CG-derived eGFRs were equal to CKD-EPI-derived eGFRs at predicting ESRD (n = 36) and death (n = 565), as measured by the Akaike information criterion. CG-based moderate and advanced CKDs were associated with ESRD [adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) 7.17; 95% CI 2.65-19.36 and aIRR 23.46; 95% CI 8.54-64.48, respectively], as were CKD-EPI-based moderate and advanced CKDs (aIRR 12.41; 95% CI 4.74-32.51 and aIRR 12.44; 95% CI 4.83-32.03, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Differences between eGFRs using CG adjusted for BSA or CKD-EPI were modest. In the absence of a gold standard, the two formulae predicted clinical outcomes with equal precision and can be used to estimate GFR in HIV-positive persons.

The prevalence and predictive value of dipstick urine protein in HIV-positive persons in Europe.

INTRODUCTION Proteinuria (PTU) is an important marker for the development and progression of renal disease, cardiovascular disease and death, but there is limited information about the prevalence and factors associated with confirmed PTU in predominantly white European HIV+ persons, especially in those with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2). PATIENTS AND METHODS Baseline was defined as the first of two consecutive dipstick urine protein (DPU) measurements during prospective follow-up >1/6/2011 (when systematic data collection began). PTU was defined as two consecutive DUP >1+ (>30 mg/dL) >3 months apart; persons with eGFR <60 at either DPU measurement were excluded. Logistic regression investigated factors associated with PTU. RESULTS A total of 1,640 persons were included, participants were mainly white (n=1,517, 92.5%), male (n=1296, 79.0%) and men having sex with men (n=809; 49.3%). Median age at baseline was 45 (IQR 37-52 years), and CD4 was 570 (IQR 406-760/mm(3)). The median baseline date was 2/12 (IQR 11/11-6/12), and median eGFR was 99 (IQR 88-109 mL/min/1.73 m(2)). Sixty-nine persons had PTU (4.2%, 95% CI 3.2-4.7%). Persons with diabetes had increased odds of PTU, as were those with a prior non-AIDS (1) or AIDS event and those with prior exposure to indinavir. Among females, those with a normal eGFR (>90) and those with prior abacavir use had lower odds of PTU (Figure 1). CONCLUSIONS One in 25 persons with eGFR>60 had confirmed proteinuria at baseline. Factors associated with PTU were similar to those associated with CKD. The lack of association with antiretrovirals, particularly tenofovir, may be due to the cross-sectional design of this study, and additional follow-up is required to address progression to PTU in those without PTU at baseline. It may also suggest other markers are needed to capture the deteriorating renal function associated with antiretrovirals may be needed at higher eGFRs. Our findings suggest PTU is an early marker for impaired renal function.

Major challenges in clinical management of TB/HIV co-infected patients in Eastern Europe compared with Western Europe and Latin America.

INTRODUCTION Rates of both TB/HIV co-infection and multi-drug-resistant (MDR) TB are increasing in Eastern Europe (EE). Data on the clinical management of TB/HIV co-infected patients are scarce. Our aim was to study the clinical characteristics of TB/HIV patients in Europe and Latin America (LA) at TB diagnosis, identify factors associated with MDR-TB and assess the activity of initial TB treatment regimens given the results of drug-susceptibility tests (DST). MATERIAL AND METHODS We enrolled 1413 TB/HIV patients from 62 clinics in 19 countries in EE, Western Europe (WE), Southern Europe (SE) and LA from January 2011 to December 2013. Among patients who completed DST within the first month of TB therapy, we linked initial TB treatment regimens to the DST results and calculated the distribution of patients receiving 0, 1, 2, 3 and ≥4 active drugs in each region. Risk factors for MDR-TB were identified in logistic regression models. RESULTS Significant differences were observed between EE (n=844), WE (n=152), SE (n=164) and LA (n=253) for use of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) at TB diagnosis (17%, 40%, 44% and 35%, p<0.0001), a definite TB diagnosis (culture and/or PCR positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis; 47%, 71%, 72% and 40%, p<0.0001) and MDR-TB prevalence (34%, 3%, 3% and 11%, p <0.0001 among those with DST results). The history of injecting drug use [adjusted OR (aOR) = 2.03, (95% CI 1.00-4.09)], prior TB treatment (aOR = 3.42, 95% CI 1.88-6.22) and living in EE (aOR = 7.19, 95% CI 3.28-15.78) were associated with MDR-TB. For 569 patients with available DST, the initial TB treatment contained ≥3 active drugs in 64% of patients in EE compared with 90-94% of patients in other regions (Figure 1a). Had the patients received initial therapy with standard therapy [Rifampicin, Isoniazid, Pyrazinamide, Ethambutol (RHZE)], the corresponding proportions would have been 64% vs. 86-97%, respectively (Figure 1b). CONCLUSIONS In EE, TB/HIV patients had poorer exposure to cART, less often a definitive TB diagnosis and more often MDR-TB compared to other parts of Europe and LA. Initial TB therapy in EE was sub-optimal, with less than two-thirds of patients receiving at least three active drugs, and improved compliance with standard RHZE treatment does not seem to be the solution. Improved management of TB/HIV patients requires routine use of DST, initial TB therapy according to prevailing resistance patterns and more widespread use of cART.

Cancer risk and use of protease inhibitor or nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based combination antiretroviral therapy: the d: a: d study.

BACKGROUND The association between combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) and cancer risk, especially regimens containing protease inhibitors (PIs) or nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), is unclear. METHODS Participants were followed from the latest of D:A:D study entry or January 1, 2004, until the earliest of a first cancer diagnosis, February 1, 2012, death, or 6 months after the last visit. Multivariable Poisson regression models assessed associations between cumulative (per year) use of either any cART or PI/NNRTI, and the incidence of any cancer, non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADC), AIDS-defining cancers (ADC), and the most frequently occurring ADC (Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma) and NADC (lung, invasive anal, head/neck cancers, and Hodgkin lymphoma). RESULTS A total of 41,762 persons contributed 241,556 person-years (PY). A total of 1832 cancers were diagnosed [incidence rate: 0.76/100 PY (95% confidence interval: 0.72 to 0.79)], 718 ADC [0.30/100 PY (0.28-0.32)], and 1114 NADC [0.46/100 PY (0.43-0.49)]. Longer exposure to cART was associated with a lower ADC risk [adjusted rate ratio: 0.88/year (0.85-0.92)] but a higher NADC risk [1.02/year (1.00-1.03)]. Both PI and NNRTI use were associated with a lower ADC risk [PI: 0.96/year (0.92-1.00); NNRTI: 0.86/year (0.81-0.91)]. PI use was associated with a higher NADC risk [1.03/year (1.01-1.05)]. Although this was largely driven by an association with anal cancer [1.08/year (1.04-1.13)], the association remained after excluding anal cancers from the end point [1.02/year (1.01-1.04)]. No association was seen between NNRTI use and NADC [1.00/year (0.98-1.02)]. CONCLUSIONS Cumulative use of PIs may be associated with a higher risk of anal cancer and possibly other NADC. Further investigation of biological mechanisms is warranted.

Major differences in organization and availability of health care and medicines for HIV/TB coinfected patients across Europe

OBJECTIVES The aim of the study was to investigate the organization and delivery of HIV and tuberculosis (TB) health care and to analyse potential differences between treatment centres in Eastern (EE) and Western Europe (WE). METHODS Thirty-eight European HIV and TB treatment centres participating in the TB:HIV study within EuroCoord completed a survey on health care management for coinfected patients in 2013 (EE: 17 respondents; WE:21; 76% of all TB:HIV centres). Descriptive statistics were obtained for regional comparisons. The reported data on health care strategies were compared with actual clinical practice at patient level via data derived from the TB:HIV study. RESULTS Respondent centres in EE comprised: Belarus (n = 3), Estonia (1), Georgia (1), Latvia (1), Lithuania (1), Poland (4), Romania (1), the Russian Federation (4) and Ukraine (1); those in WE comprised: Belgium (1), Denmark (1), France (1), Italy (7), Spain (2), Switzerland (1) and UK (8). Compared with WE, treatment of HIV and TB in EE are less often located at the same site (47% in EE versus 100% in WE; P < 0.001) and less often provided by the same doctors (41% versus 90%, respectively; P = 0.002), whereas regular screening of HIV-infected patients for TB (80% versus 40%, respectively; P = 0.037) and directly observed treatment (88% versus 20%, respectively; P < 0.001) were more common in EE. The reported availability of rifabutin and second- and third-line anti-TB drugs was lower, and opioid substitution therapy (OST) was available at fewer centres in EE compared with WE (53% versus 100%, respectively; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Major differences exist between EE and WE in relation to the organization and delivery of health care for HIV/TB-coinfected patients and the availability of anti-TB drugs and OST. Significant discrepancies between reported and actual clinical practices were found in EE.

Essentials from the 2015 European AIDS Clinical Society (EACS) guidelines for the treatment of adult HIV-positive persons.

BACKGROUND The European AIDS Clinical Society (EACS) guidelines are intended for all clinicians involved in the care of HIV-positive persons, and are available in print, online, and as a free App for download for iPhone and Android. GUIDELINE HIGHLIGHTS The 2015 version of the EACS guidelines contains major revisions in all sections; antiretroviral treatment (ART), comorbidities, coinfections and opportunistic diseases. Among the key revisions is the recommendation of ART for all HIV-positive persons, irrespectively of CD4 count, based on the Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment (START) study results. The recommendations for the preferred and the alternative ART options have also been revised, and a new section on the use of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has been added. A number of new antiretroviral drugs/drug combinations have been added to the updated tables on drug-drug interactions, adverse drug effects, dose adjustment for renal/liver insufficiency and for ART administration in persons with swallowing difficulties. The revisions of the coinfection section reflect the major advances in anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment with direct-acting antivirals with earlier start of treatment in individuals at increased risk of liver disease progression, and a phasing out of interferon-containing treatment regimens. The section on opportunistic diseases has been restructured according to individual pathogens/diseases and a new overview table has been added on CD4 count thresholds for different primary prophylaxes. CONCLUSIONS The diagnosis and management of HIV infection and related coinfections, opportunistic diseases and comorbidities continue to require a multidisciplinary effort for which the 2015 version of the EACS guidelines provides an easily accessable and updated overview.

Major Challenges in Clinical Management of TB/HIV Coinfected Patients in Eastern Europe Compared with Western Europe and Latin America.

OBJECTIVES Rates of TB/HIV coinfection and multi-drug resistant (MDR)-TB are increasing in Eastern Europe (EE). We aimed to study clinical characteristics, factors associated with MDR-TB and predicted activity of empiric anti-TB treatment at time of TB diagnosis among TB/HIV coinfected patients in EE, Western Europe (WE) and Latin America (LA). DESIGN AND METHODS Between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2013, 1413 TB/HIV patients (62 clinics in 19 countries in EE, WE, Southern Europe (SE), and LA) were enrolled. RESULTS Significant differences were observed between EE (N = 844), WE (N = 152), SE (N = 164), and LA (N = 253) in the proportion of patients with a definite TB diagnosis (47%, 71%, 72% and 40%, p<0.0001), MDR-TB (40%, 5%, 3% and 15%, p<0.0001), and use of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) (17%, 40%, 44% and 35%, p<0.0001). Injecting drug use (adjusted OR (aOR) = 2.03 (95% CI 1.00-4.09), prior anti-TB treatment (3.42 (1.88-6.22)), and living in EE (7.19 (3.28-15.78)) were associated with MDR-TB. Among 585 patients with drug susceptibility test (DST) results, the empiric (i.e. without knowledge of the DST results) anti-TB treatment included ≥3 active drugs in 66% of participants in EE compared with 90-96% in other regions (p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS In EE, TB/HIV patients were less likely to receive a definite TB diagnosis, more likely to house MDR-TB and commonly received empiric anti-TB treatment with reduced activity. Improved management of TB/HIV patients in EE requires better access to TB diagnostics including DSTs, empiric anti-TB therapy directed at both susceptible and MDR-TB, and more widespread use of cART.

Tuberculosis-related mortality in people living with HIV in Europe and Latin America: an international cohort study

BACKGROUND Management of tuberculosis in patients with HIV in eastern Europe is complicated by the high prevalence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, low rates of drug susceptibility testing, and poor access to antiretroviral therapy (ART). We report 1 year mortality estimates from a multiregional (eastern Europe, western Europe, and Latin America) prospective cohort study: the TB:HIV study. METHODS Consecutive HIV-positive patients aged 16 years or older with a diagnosis of tuberculosis between Jan 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2013, were enrolled from 62 HIV and tuberculosis clinics in 19 countries in eastern Europe, western Europe, and Latin America. The primary endpoint was death within 12 months after starting tuberculosis treatment; all deaths were classified according to whether or not they were tuberculosis related. Follow-up was either until death, the final visit, or 12 months after baseline, whichever occurred first. Risk factors for all-cause and tuberculosis-related deaths were assessed using Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox models. FINDINGS Of 1406 patients (834 in eastern Europe, 317 in western Europe, and 255 in Latin America), 264 (19%) died within 12 months. 188 (71%) of these deaths were tuberculosis related. The probability of all-cause death was 29% (95% CI 26-32) in eastern Europe, 4% (3-7) in western Europe, and 11% (8-16) in Latin America (p<0·0001) and the corresponding probabilities of tuberculosis-related death were 23% (20-26), 1% (0-3), and 4% (2-8), respectively (p<0·0001). Patients receiving care outside eastern Europe had a 77% decreased risk of death: adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0·23 (95% CI 0·16-0·31). In eastern Europe, compared with patients who started a regimen with at least three active antituberculosis drugs, those who started fewer than three active antituberculosis drugs were at a higher risk of tuberculosis-related death (aHR 3·17; 95% CI 1·83-5·49) as were those who did not have baseline drug-susceptibility tests (2·24; 1·31-3·83). Other prognostic factors for increased tuberculosis-related mortality were disseminated tuberculosis and a low CD4 cell count. 18% of patients were receiving ART at tuberculosis diagnosis in eastern Europe compared with 44% in western Europe and 39% in Latin America (p<0·0001); 12 months later the proportions were 67% in eastern Europe, 92% in western Europe, and 85% in Latin America (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION Patients with HIV and tuberculosis in eastern Europe have a risk of death nearly four-times higher than that in patients from western Europe and Latin America. This increased mortality rate is associated with modifiable risk factors such as lack of drug susceptibility testing and suboptimal initial antituberculosis treatment in settings with a high prevalence of drug resistance. Urgent action is needed to improve tuberculosis care for patients living with HIV in eastern Europe. FUNDING EU Seventh Framework Programme.

Trends in incidences and risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma and other liver events in HIV and hepatitis C virus co-infected individuals from 2001 to 2014: a multi-cohort study.

BACKGROUND  While liver-related deaths in HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infected individuals have declined over the last decade, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may have increased. We described the epidemiology of HCC and other liver events in a multi-cohort collaboration of HIV/HCV co-infected individuals. METHODS  We studied all HCV antibody-positive adults with HIV in the EuroSIDA Study, the Southern Alberta Clinic Cohort, the Canadian Co-infection Cohort, and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study from 2001 to 2014. We calculated the incidence of HCC and other liver events (defined as liver-related deaths or decompensations, excluding HCC) and used Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios. RESULTS  Our study comprised 7,229 HIV/HCV co-infected individuals (68% male, 90% white). During follow-up, 72 cases of HCC and 375 other liver events occurred, yielding incidence rates of 1.6 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3, 2.0) and 8.6 (95% CI: 7.8, 9.5) cases per 1,000 person-years of follow-up, respectively. The rate of HCC increased 11% per calendar year (95% CI: 4%, 19%) and decreased 4% for other liver events (95% CI: 2%, 7%), but only the latter remained statistically significant after adjustment for potential confounders. High age, cirrhosis, and low current CD4 cell count were associated with a higher incidence of both HCC and other liver events. CONCLUSIONS  In HIV/HCV co-infected individuals, the crude incidence of HCC increased from 2001 to 2014, while other liver events declined. Individuals with cirrhosis or low current CD4 cell count are at highest risk of developing HCC or other liver events.

Multiple regulatory variants located in cell type-specific enhancers within the PKP2 locus form major risk and protective haplotypes for canine atopic dermatitis in German shepherd dogs.

BACKGROUND Canine atopic dermatitis (CAD) is a chronic inflammatory skin disease triggered by allergic reactions involving IgE antibodies directed towards environmental allergens. We previously identified a ~1.5 Mb locus on canine chromosome 27 associated with CAD in German shepherd dogs (GSDs). Fine-mapping indicated association closest to the PKP2 gene encoding plakophilin 2. RESULTS Additional genotyping and association analyses in GSDs combined with control dogs from five breeds with low-risk for CAD revealed the top SNP 27:19,086,778 (p = 1.4 × 10(-7)) and a rare ~48 kb risk haplotype overlapping the PKP2 gene and shared only with other high-risk CAD breeds. We selected altogether nine SNPs (four top-associated in GSDs and five within the ~48 kb risk haplotype) that spanned ~280 kb forming one risk haplotype carried by 35 % of the GSD cases and 10 % of the GSD controls (OR = 5.1, p = 5.9 × 10(-5)), and another haplotype present in 85 % of the GSD cases and 98 % of the GSD controls and conferring a protective effect against CAD in GSDs (OR = 0.14, p = 0.0032). Eight of these SNPs were analyzed for transcriptional regulation using reporter assays where all tested regions exerted regulatory effects on transcription in epithelial and/or immune cell lines, and seven SNPs showed allelic differences. The DNA fragment with the top-associated SNP 27:19,086,778 displayed the highest activity in keratinocytes with 11-fold induction of transcription by the risk allele versus 8-fold by the control allele (pdifference = 0.003), and also mapped close (~3 kb) to an ENCODE skin-specific enhancer region. CONCLUSIONS Our experiments indicate that multiple CAD-associated genetic variants located in cell type-specific enhancers are involved in gene regulation in different cells and tissues. No single causative variant alone, but rather multiple variants combined in a risk haplotype likely contribute to an altered expression of the PKP2 gene, and possibly nearby genes, in immune and epithelial cells, and predispose GSDs to CAD.

Sexual Activity Without Condoms and Risk of HIV Transmission in Serodifferent Couples When the HIV-Positive Partner Is Using Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy

Importance A key factor in assessing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy (ART) as a prevention strategy is the absolute risk of HIV transmission through condomless sex with suppressed HIV-1 RNA viral load for both anal and vaginal sex. Objective To evaluate the rate of within-couple HIV transmission (heterosexual and men who have sex with men [MSM]) during periods of sex without condoms and when the HIV-positive partner had HIV-1 RNA load less than 200 copies/mL. Design, Setting, and Participants The prospective, observational PARTNER (Partners of People on ART-A New Evaluation of the Risks) study was conducted at 75 clinical sites in 14 European countries and enrolled 1166 HIV serodifferent couples (HIV-positive partner taking suppressive ART) who reported condomless sex (September 2010 to May 2014). Eligibility criteria for inclusion of couple-years of follow-up were condomless sex and HIV-1 RNA load less than 200 copies/mL. Anonymized phylogenetic analysis compared couples' HIV-1 polymerase and envelope sequences if an HIV-negative partner became infected to determine phylogenetically linked transmissions. Exposures Condomless sexual activity with an HIV-positive partner taking virally suppressive ART. Main Outcomes and Measures Risk of within-couple HIV transmission to the HIV-negative partner. Results Among 1166 enrolled couples, 888 (mean age, 42 years [IQR, 35-48]; 548 heterosexual [61.7%] and 340 MSM [38.3%]) provided 1238 eligible couple-years of follow-up (median follow-up, 1.3 years [IQR, 0.8-2.0]). At baseline, couples reported condomless sex for a median of 2 years (IQR, 0.5-6.3). Condomless sex with other partners was reported by 108 HIV-negative MSM (33%) and 21 heterosexuals (4%). During follow-up, couples reported condomless sex a median of 37 times per year (IQR, 15-71), with MSM couples reporting approximately 22 000 condomless sex acts and heterosexuals approximately 36 000. Although 11 HIV-negative partners became HIV-positive (10 MSM; 1 heterosexual; 8 reported condomless sex with other partners), no phylogenetically linked transmissions occurred over eligible couple-years of follow-up, giving a rate of within-couple HIV transmission of zero, with an upper 95% confidence limit of 0.30/100 couple-years of follow-up. The upper 95% confidence limit for condomless anal sex was 0.71 per 100 couple-years of follow-up. Conclusions and Relevance Among serodifferent heterosexual and MSM couples in which the HIV-positive partner was using suppressive ART and who reported condomless sex, during median follow-up of 1.3 years per couple, there were no documented cases of within-couple HIV transmission (upper 95% confidence limit, 0.30/100 couple-years of follow-up). Additional longer-term follow-up is necessary to provide more precise estimates of risk.