Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe

Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth’s recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our palaeotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.

Longitudinal relationships between prospective memory, executive functions, and metacognition in young elementary school children

Prospective Memory (PM), executive functions (EF) and metacognition (MC) are relevant cognitive abilities for everyday functioning. They all seem to develop gradually in childhood and appear to be theoretically closely related; however, their empirical links remain unclear, especially in children. As a recent study revealed significant cross-sectional links between PM and EF, and a weaker but close link between PM and MC in 2nd graders (Spiess, Meier, & Roebers, submitted), this study focused on their short-term relationships and on their development. 119 children (MT1 =95 months, SDT1, = 4.8 months) completed the same tasks (one PM, three EF, one MC task) twice with a time-lag of 7 months. T-tests showed significant improvements in all tasks, except in the updating task. Different structural equation models were contrasted (AMOS); the best fitting model revealed that PMT2 was similarly predicted by PMT1 (r = .33) and EFT1 (r = .34). Additionally, EFT1 predicted MCT2 (r = .44), chi2(118, 119) = 128.91, p = .23, TLI = .968, CFI = .978, RMSEA = .028. Results show that PM, EF, and MC develop during childhood and also demonstrate that they are linked not only cross-sectionally, but longitudinally. Findings are discussed in a broader developmental framework.

A Longitudinal Study of Mental Health in Emerging Adults

Emerging adulthood is a time of instability. This longitudinal study investigated the relationship between mental health and need satisfaction among emerging adults over a period of five years and focused on gender-specific differences. Two possible causal models were examined: (1) the mental health model, which predicts that incongruence is due to the presence of impaired mental health at an earlier point in time; (2) the consistency model, which predicts that impaired mental health is due to a higher level of incongruence reported at an earlier point in time. Emerging adults (N = 1,017) aged 18–24 completed computer-assisted telephone interviews in 2003 (T1), 2005 (T2), and 2008 (T3). The results indicate that better mental health at T1 predicts a lower level of incongruence two years later (T2), when prior level of incongruence is controlled for. The same cross-lagged effect is shown for T3. However, the cross-lagged paths from incongruence to mental health are marginally associated when prior mental health is controlled for. No gender differences were found in the cross-lagged model. The results support the mental health model and show that incongruence does not have a long-lasting negative effect on mental health. The results highlight the importance of identifying emerging adults with poor mental health early to provide support regarding need satisfaction.

Who Earns More and Why? A Multiple Mediation Model from Personality to Salary

Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate multiple indirect Big Five personality influences on professionals’ annual salary while considering relevant mediators. These are the motivational variables of occupational self-efficacy and career-advancement goals, and the work status variable of contractual work hours. The motivational and work status variables were conceptualized as serial mediators (Big Five → occupational self-efficacy/career-advancement goals → contractual work hours → annual salary). Design/Methodology/Approach We realized a 4 year longitudinal survey study with 432 participants and three points of measurement. We assessed personality prior to the mediators and the mediators prior to annual salary. Findings Results showed that except for openness the other Big Five personality traits exerted indirect influences on annual salary. Career-advancement goals mediated influences of conscientiousness (+), extraversion (+), and agreeableness (−). Occupational self-efficacy mediated influences of neuroticism (–) and conscientiousness (+). Because the influence of occupational self-efficacy on annual salary was fully mediated by contractual work hours, indirect personality influences via occupational self-efficacy always included contractual work hours in a serial mediation. Implications These findings underline the importance of distal personality traits for career success. They give further insights into direct and indirect relationships between personality, goal content, self-efficacy beliefs, and an individual’s career progress. Originality/Value Previous research predominantly investigated direct Big Five influences on salary, and it analyzed cross-sectional data. This study is one of the first to investigate multiple indirect Big Five influences on salary in a longitudinal design. The findings support process-oriented theories of personality influences on career outcomes.

Synchronous and Time-Lagged Effects between Occupational Self-Efficacy and Objective and Subjective Career Success: Findings from a Four-Wave and 9-Year Longitudinal Study

We integrated research on the dimensionality of career success into social-cognitive career theory and explored the positive feedback loop between occupational self-efficacy and objective and subjective career success over time (self-efficacy → objective success → subjective success → self-efficacy). Furthermore, we theoretically accounted for synchronous and time-lagged effects, as well as indirect reciprocity between the variables. We tested the proposed model by means of longitudinal structural equation modeling in a 9-year four-wave panel design, by applying a model comparison approach and indirect effect analyses (N = 608 professionals). The findings supported the proposed positive feedback loop between occupational self-efficacy and career success. Supporting our time-based reasoning, the findings showed that unfolding effects between occupational self-efficacy and objective career success take more time (i.e., time-lagged or over time) than unfolding effects between objective and subjective career success, as well as between subjective career success and occupational self-efficacy (i.e., synchronous or concurrently). Indirect effects of past on future occupational self-efficacy via objective and subjective career success were significant, providing support for an indirect reciprocity model. Results are discussed with respect to extensions of social-cognitive career theory and occupational self-efficacy development over time.

The dual impact of gender and the influence of timing of parenthood on men’s and women’s career development: Longitudinal findings

This study investigated the impact of gender, the gender-related self-concept (agency and communion), and the timing of parenthood on objective career success of 1,015 highly educated professionals. Hypotheses derived from a dual-impact model of gender and career-related processes were tested in a 5-wave longitudinal study over a time span of 10 years starting with participants’ career entry. In line with our hypotheses we found that the communal component of the gender self-concept had an impact on parenthood, and the agentic component influenced work hours and objective career success (salary, status) of both women and men. Parenthood had a negative direct influence on women’s work hours and a negative indirect influence on women’s objective career success. Women who had their first child around career entry were relatively least successful over the observation period. Men’s career success was independent of parenthood. Sixty-five percent of variance in women’s career success and 33% of variance in men’s career success was explained by the factors analyzed here. Mothers with partners working full time reduced their work hours more than mothers with partners not working full time. A test for a possible reverse influence of career success on the decision to become a parent revealed no effect for men and equivocal effects for women. We conclude that the transition to parenthood still is a crucial factor for women’s career development both from an external gender perspective (expectations, gender roles) and from an internal perspective (gender-related self-concept).

Explaining car drivers' intention to prevent road-traffic noise: An application of the Norm Activation Model

Strengthening car drivers’ intention to prevent road-traffic noise is a first step toward noise abatement through voluntary change of behavior. We analyzed predictors of this intention based on the norm activation model (i.e., personal norm, problem awareness, awareness of consequences, social norm, and value orientations). Moreover, we studied the effects of noise exposure, noise sensitivity, and noise annoyance on problem awareness. Data came from 1,002 car drivers who participated in a two-wave longitudinal survey over 4 months. Personal norm had a large prospective effect on intention, even when the previous level of intention was controlled for, and mediated the effect of all other variables on intention. Almost 60% of variance in personal norm was explained by problem awareness, social norm, and biospheric value orientation. The effects of noise sensitivity and noise exposure on problem awareness were small and mediated by noise annoyance. We propose four communication strategies for strengthening the intention to prevent road-traffic noise in car drivers.

Investigation of retinal morphology alterations using spectral domain optical coherence tomography in a mouse model of retinal branch and central retinal vein occlusion.

Retinal vein occlusion is a leading cause of visual impairment. Experimental models of this condition based on laser photocoagulation of retinal veins have been described and extensively exploited in mammals and larger rodents such as the rat. However, few reports exist on the use of this paradigm in the mouse. The objective of this study was to investigate a model of branch and central retinal vein occlusion in the mouse and characterize in vivo longitudinal retinal morphology alterations using spectral domain optical coherence tomography. Retinal veins were experimentally occluded using laser photocoagulation after intravenous application of Rose Bengal, a photo-activator dye enhancing thrombus formation. Depending on the number of veins occluded, variable amounts of capillary dropout were seen on fluorescein angiography. Vascular endothelial growth factor levels were markedly elevated early and peaked at day one. Retinal thickness measurements with spectral domain optical coherence tomography showed significant swelling (p<0.001) compared to baseline, followed by gradual thinning plateauing two weeks after the experimental intervention (p<0.001). Histological findings at day seven correlated with spectral domain optical coherence tomography imaging. The inner layers were predominantly affected by degeneration with the outer nuclear layer and the photoreceptor outer segments largely preserved. The application of this retinal vein occlusion model in the mouse carries several advantages over its use in other larger species, such as access to a vast range of genetically modified animals. Retinal changes after experimental retinal vein occlusion in this mouse model can be non-invasively quantified by spectral domain optical coherence tomography, and may be used to monitor effects of potential therapeutic interventions.

No sports – no mental health? Analysis of longitudinal effects in SHP data.

Results from the Zurich study have shown lasting associations between sport practice and mental health. The effects are pronounced in people with pre-exising mental health problems. This analysis aims to replicate these results with the large Swiss Household Panel data set and to provide more differentiated results. The analysis covered the interviews 1999-2003 and included 3891 stayers, i.e., participants who were interviewed in all years. The outcome variables are depression / blues / anxiety, weakness / weariness, sleeping problems, energy / optimism. Confounding variables include sex, age, education level, citizenship. The analyses were carried out with mixed models (depression, optimism) and GEE models (weakness, sleep). About 60% of the SHP participants practise weekly or daily an individual or a team sport. A similar proportion enjoys a frequent physical activity (for half an hour minimum) which makes oneself slightly breathless. There are slight age-specific differences but also noteworthy regional differences. Practice of sport is clearly interrelated with self-reported depressive symptoms, optimism and weakness. This applies even though some relevant confounders – sex, educational level and citizenship – were introduced into the model. However, no relevant interaction effects with time could be shown. Moreover, direct interrelations commonly led to better fits than models with lagged variables, thus indicating that delayed effects of sport practice on the self-reported psychological complaints are less important. Model variants resulted for specific subgroups, for example, participants with a high vs. low initial activity level. Lack of sport practice is an interesting marker for serious psychological symptoms and mental disorders. The background of this association may differ in different subgroups, and should stimulate further investigations in this area.

Rumination mediates the prospective effect of low self-esteem on depression: A five-wave longitudinal study

Previous research supports the vulnerability model of low self-esteem and depression, which states that low self-esteem operates as a prospective risk factor for depression. However, it is unclear which processes mediate the effect of low self-esteem. To test for the mediating effect of rumination, the authors used longitudinal mediation models, which included exclusively prospective effects and controlled for autoregressive effects of the constructs. Data came from 663 individuals (aged 16 to 62 years), who were assessed 5 times over an 8-month period. The results indicated that low self-esteem predicted subsequent rumination, which in turn predicted subsequent depression, and that rumination partially mediated the prospective effect of low self-esteem on depression. These findings held for both men and women, and for both affective-cognitive and somatic symptoms of depression. Future studies should test for the mediating effects of additional intrapersonal and interpersonal processes.

Dispersion relation for hadronic light-by-light scattering: theoretical foundations

In this paper we make a further step towards a dispersive description of the hadronic light-by-light (HLbL) tensor, which should ultimately lead to a data-driven evaluation of its contribution to (g − 2) μ . We first provide a Lorentz decomposition of the HLbL tensor performed according to the general recipe by Bardeen, Tung, and Tarrach, generalizing and extending our previous approach, which was constructed in terms of a basis of helicity amplitudes. Such a tensor decomposition has several advantages: the role of gauge invariance and crossing symmetry becomes fully transparent; the scalar coefficient functions are free of kinematic singularities and zeros, and thus fulfill a Mandelstam double-dispersive representation; and the explicit relation for the HLbL contribution to (g − 2) μ in terms of the coefficient functions simplifies substantially. We demonstrate explicitly that the dispersive approach defines both the pion-pole and the pion-loop contribution unambiguously and in a model-independent way. The pion loop, dispersively defined as pion-box topology, is proven to coincide exactly with the one-loop scalar QED amplitude, multiplied by the appropriate pion vector form factors.

Cisplatin Nephrotoxicity and Longitudinal Growth in Children With Solid Tumors: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Cisplatin, a major antineoplastic drug used in the treatment of solid tumors, is a known nephrotoxin. This retrospective cohort study evaluated the prevalence and severity of cisplatin nephrotoxicity in 54 children and its impact on height and weight.We recorded the weight, height, serum creatinine, and electrolytes in each cisplatin cycle and after 12 months of treatment. Nephrotoxicity was graded as follows: normal renal function (Grade 0); asymptomatic electrolyte disorders, including an increase in serum creatinine, up to 1.5 times baseline value (Grade 1); need for electrolyte supplementation <3 months and/or increase in serum creatinine 1.5 to 1.9 times from baseline (Grade 2); increase in serum creatinine 2 to 2.9 times from baseline or need for electrolyte supplementation for more than 3 months after treatment completion (Grade 3); and increase in serum creatinine ≥3 times from baseline or renal replacement therapy (Grade 4).Nephrotoxicity was observed in 41 subjects (75.9%). Grade 1 nephrotoxicity was observed in 18 patients (33.3%), Grade 2 in 5 patients (9.2%), and Grade 3 in 18 patients (33.3%). None had Grade 4 nephrotoxicity. Nephrotoxicity patients were younger and received higher cisplatin dose, they also had impairment in longitudinal growth manifested as statistically significant worsening on the height Z Score at 12 months after treatment. We used a multiple logistic regression model using the delta of height Z Score (baseline-12 months) as dependent variable in order to adjust for the main confounder variables such as: germ cell tumor, cisplatin total dose, serum magnesium levels at 12 months, gender, and nephrotoxicity grade. Patients with nephrotoxicity Grade 1 where at higher risk of not growing (OR 5.1, 95% CI 1.07-24.3, P=0.04). The cisplatin total dose had a significant negative relationship with magnesium levels at 12 months (Spearman r=-0.527, P=<0.001).

Refining the vulnerability model of low self-esteem and depression: Disentangling the effects of genuine self-esteem and narcissism

A growing body of research supports the vulnerability model of low self-esteem and depression, which states that low self-esteem is a risk factor for depression. The goal of the present research was to refine the vulnerability model, by testing whether the self-esteem effect is truly due to a lack of genuine self-esteem or due to a lack of narcissistic self-enhancement. For the analyses, we used data from 6 longitudinal studies consisting of 2,717 individuals. In each study, we tested the prospective effects of self-esteem and narcissism on depression both separately for each construct and mutually controlling the constructs for each other (i.e., a strategy that informs about effects of genuine self-esteem and pure narcissism), and then meta-analytically aggregated the findings. The results indicated that the effect of low self-esteem holds when narcissism is controlled for (uncontrolled effect = -.26, controlled effect = -.27). In contrast, the effect of narcissism was close to zero when self-esteem was controlled for (uncontrolled effect = -.06, controlled effect = .01). Moreover, the analyses suggested that the self-esteem effect is linear across the continuum from low to high self-esteem (i.e., the effect was not weaker at very high levels of self-esteem). Finally, self-esteem and narcissism did not interact in their effect on depression; that is, individuals with high self-esteem have a lower risk for developing depression, regardless of whether or not they are narcissistic. The findings have significant theoretical implications because they strengthen the vulnerability model of low self-esteem and depression.

The Role of Cells in Meniscal Guided Tissue Regeneration: A Proof of Concept Study in a Goat Model.

OBJECTIVE Successful repair of defects in the avascular zone of meniscus remains a challenge in orthopedics. This proof of concept study aimed to investigate a guided tissue regeneration approach for treatment of tears in meniscus avascular zone in a goat model. DESIGN Full-depth longitudinal tear was created in the avascular zone of the meniscus and sutured. In the two treatment groups, porcine collagen membrane was wrapped around the tear without (CM) or with injection of expanded autologous chondrocytes (CM+cells), whereas in the control group the tear remained only sutured. Gait recovery was evaluated during the entire follow-up period. On explantation at 3 and 6 months, macroscopic gross inspection assessed healing of tears, degradation of collagen membrane, potential signs of inflammation, and osteoarthritic changes. Microscopic histology scoring criteria were developed to evaluate healing of tears, the cellular response, and the inflammatory response. RESULTS Gait recovery suggested protective effect of collagen membrane and was supported by macroscopical evaluation where improved tear healing was noted in both treated groups. Histology scoring in CM compared to suture group revealed an increase in tear margins contact, newly formed connective tissue between margins, and cell formations surrounded with new matrix after 3 months yet not maintained after 6 months. In contrast, in the CM+cells group these features were observed after 3 and 6 months. CONCLUSIONS A transient, short-term guided tissue regeneration of avascular meniscal tears occurred upon application of collagen membrane, whereas addition of expanded autologous chondrocytes supported more sustainable longer term tear healing.

The enduring effects of psychodynamic treatments vis-à-vis alternative treatments: A multilevel longitudinal meta-analysis

Although evidence suggests that the benefits of psychodynamic treatments are sustained over time, presently it is unclear whether these sustained benefits are superior to non-psychodynamic treatments. Additionally, the extant literature comparing the sustained benefits of psychodynamic treatments compared to alternative treatments is limited with methodological shortcomings. The purpose of the current study was to conduct a rigorous test of the growth of the benefits of psychodynamic treatments relative to alternative treatments across distinct domains of change (i.e., all outcome measures, targeted outcome measures, non-targeted outcome measures, and personality outcome measures). To do so, the study employed strict inclusion criteria to identify randomized clinical trials that directly compared at least one bona fide psychodynamic treatment and one bona fide non-psychodynamic treatment. Hierarchical linear modeling (Raudenbush, Bryk, Cheong, Congdon, & du Toit, 2011) was used to longitudinally model the impact of psychodynamic treatments compared to non-psychodynamic treatments at post-treatment and to compare the growth (i.e., slope) of effects beyond treatment completion. Findings from the present meta-analysis indicated that psychodynamic treatments and non-psychodynamic treatments were equally efficacious at post-treatment and at follow-up for combined outcomes (k=20), targeted outcomes (k=19), non-targeted outcomes (k=17), and personality outcomes (k=6). Clinical implications, directions for future research, and limitations are discussed.