40 resultados para Long-range weather forecasts
Resumo:
The co-occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs), strongly ascending moist airstreams in extratropical cyclones, and stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) streamers, indicators for breaking Rossby waves on the tropopause, is investigated for a 21-yr period in the Northern Hemisphere using Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data. WCB outflows and PV streamers are respectively identified as two- and three-dimensional objects and tracked during their life cycle. PV streamers are more frequent than WCB outflows and nearly 15% of all PV streamers co-occur with WCBs during their life cycle, whereas about 60% of all WCB outflows co-occur with PV streamers. Co-occurrences are most frequent over the North Atlantic and North Pacific in spring and winter. WCB outflows are often located upstream of the PV streamers and form earlier, indicating the importance of diabatic processes for downstream Rossby wave breaking. Less frequently, PV streamers occur first, leading to the formation of new WCBs.
Resumo:
Alpine heavy precipitation events often affect small catchments, although the circulation pattern leading to the event extends over the entire North Atlantic. The various scale interactions involved are particularly challenging for the numerical weather prediction of such events. Unlike previous studies focusing on the southern Alps, here a comprehensive study of a heavy precipitation event in the northern Alps in October 2011 is presented with particular focus on the role of the large-scale circulation in the North Atlantic/European region. During the event exceptionally high amounts of total precipitable water occurred in and north of the Alps. This moisture was initially transported along the flanks of a blocking ridge over the North Atlantic. Subsequently, strong and persistent northerly flow established at the upstream flank of a trough over Europe and steered the moisture towards the northern Alps. Lagrangian diagnostics reveal that a large fraction of the moisture emerged from the West African coast where a subtropical upper-level cut-off low served as an important moisture collector. Wave activity flux diagnostics show that the ridge was initiated as part of a low-frequency, large-scale Rossby wave train while convergence of fast transients helped to amplify it locally in the North Atlantic. A novel diagnostic for advective potential vorticity tendencies sheds more light on this amplification and further emphasizes the role of the ridge in amplifying the trough over Europe. Operational forecasts misrepresented the amplitude and orientation of this trough. For the first time, this study documents an important pathway for northern Alpine flooding, in which the interaction of synoptic-scale to large-scale weather systems and of long-range moisture transport from the Tropics are dominant. Moreover, the trapping of moisture in a subtropical cut-off near the West African coast is found to be a crucial precursor to the observed European high-impact weather.
Resumo:
Asthma is an increasing health problem worldwide, but the long-term temporal pattern of clinical symptoms is not understood and predicting asthma episodes is not generally possible. We analyse the time series of peak expiratory flows, a standard measurement of airway function that has been assessed twice daily in a large asthmatic population during a long-term crossover clinical trial. Here we introduce an approach to predict the risk of worsening airflow obstruction by calculating the conditional probability that, given the current airway condition, a severe obstruction will occur within 30 days. We find that, compared with a placebo, a regular long-acting bronchodilator (salmeterol) that is widely used to improve asthma control decreases the risk of airway obstruction. Unexpectedly, however, a regular short-acting beta2-agonist bronchodilator (albuterol) increases this risk. Furthermore, we find that the time series of peak expiratory flows show long-range correlations that change significantly with disease severity, approaching a random process with increased variability in the most severe cases. Using a nonlinear stochastic model, we show that both the increased variability and the loss of correlations augment the risk of unstable airway function. The characterization of fluctuations in airway function provides a quantitative basis for objective risk prediction of asthma episodes and for evaluating the effectiveness of therapy.
Resumo:
Phase locking or synchronization of brain areas is a key concept of information processing in the brain. Synchronous oscillations have been observed and investigated extensively in EEG during the past decades. EEG oscillations occur over a wide frequency range. In EEG, a prominent type of oscillations is alpha-band activity, present typically when a subject is awake, but at rest with closed eyes. The spectral power of alpha rhythms has recently been investigated in simultaneous EEG/fMRI recordings, establishing a wide-range cortico-thalamic network. However, spectral power and synchronization are different measures and little is known about the correlations between BOLD effects and EEG synchronization. Interestingly, the fMRI BOLD signal also displays synchronous oscillations across different brain regions. These oscillations delineate so-called resting state networks (RSNs) that resemble the correlation patterns of simultaneous EEG/fMRI recordings. However, the nature of these BOLD oscillations and their relations to EEG activity is still poorly understood. One hypothesis is that the subunits constituting a specific RSN may be coordinated by different EEG rhythms. In this study we report on evidence for this hypothesis. The BOLD correlates of global EEG synchronization (GFS) in the alpha frequency band are located in brain areas involved in specific RSNs, e.g. the 'default mode network'. Furthermore, our results confirm the hypothesis that specific RSNs are organized by long-range synchronization at least in the alpha frequency band. Finally, we could localize specific areas where the GFS BOLD correlates and the associated RSN overlap. Thus, we claim that not only the spectral dynamics of EEG are important, but also their spatio-temporal organization.
Resumo:
We report a high-quality draft sequence of the genome of the horse (Equus caballus). The genome is relatively repetitive but has little segmental duplication. Chromosomes appear to have undergone few historical rearrangements: 53% of equine chromosomes show conserved synteny to a single human chromosome. Equine chromosome 11 is shown to have an evolutionary new centromere devoid of centromeric satellite DNA, suggesting that centromeric function may arise before satellite repeat accumulation. Linkage disequilibrium, showing the influences of early domestication of large herds of female horses, is intermediate in length between dog and human, and there is long-range haplotype sharing among breeds.
Resumo:
Bathurst Harbour in World Heritage southwest Tasmania, Australia, is one of the world’s most pristine estuarine systems. At present there is a lack of data on pollution impacts or long-term natural variability in the harbor. A ca. 350-year-old 210Pb-dated sediment core was analysed for trace metals to track pollution impacts from local and long-range sources. Lead and antimony increased from AD 1870 onwards, which likely reflects remote (i.e. mainland Australian and global) atmospheric pollution sources. Variability in the concentrations of copper and zinc closely followed the history of mining activities in western Tasmania, which began in the AD 1880s. Tin was generally low throughout the core, except for a large peak in AD 1989 ± 0.5 years, which may be a consequence of input from a local small-scale alluvial tin mine. Changes in diatom assemblages were also investigated. The diatom flora was composed mostly of planktonic freshwater and benthic brackish-marine species, consistent with stratified estuarine conditions. Since mining began, however, an overall decrease in the proportion of planktonic to benthic taxa occurred, with the exception of two distinct peaks in the twentieth century that coincided with periods of high rainfall. Despite the region’s remoteness, trace metal analyses revealed evidence of atmospheric pollution from Tasmanian and possibly longer-range mining activities. This, together with recent low rainfall, appears to have contributed to altering the diatom assemblages in one of the most pristine temperate estuaries in the world.
Resumo:
Agricultural intensification has caused a decline in structural elements in European farmland, where natural habitats are increasingly fragmented. The loss of habitat structures has a detrimental effect on biodiversity and affects bat species that depend on vegetation structures for foraging and commuting. We investigated the impact of connectivity and configuration of structural landscape elements on flight activity, species richness and diversity of insectivorous bats and distinguished three bat guilds according to species-specific bioacoustic characteristics. We tested whether bats with shorter-range echolocation were more sensitive to habitat fragmentation than bats with longer-range echolocation. We expected to find different connectivity thresholds for the three guilds and hypothesized that bats prefer linear over patchy landscape elements. Bat activity was quantified using repeated acoustic monitoring in 225 locations at 15 study plots distributed across the Swiss Central Plateau, where connectivity and the shape of landscape elements were determined by spatial analysis (GIS). Spectrograms of bat calls were assigned to species with the software batit by means of image recognition and statistical classification algorithms. Bat activity was significantly higher around landscape elements compared to open control areas. Short- and long-range echolocating bats were more active in well-connected landscapes, but optimal connectivity levels differed between the guilds. Species richness increased significantly with connectivity, while species diversity did not (Shannon's diversity index). Total bat activity was unaffected by the shape of landscape elements. Synthesis and applications. This study highlights the importance of connectivity in farmland landscapes for bats, with shorter-range echolocating bats being particularly sensitive to habitat fragmentation. More structurally diverse landscape elements are likely to reduce population declines of bats and could improve conditions for other declining species, including birds. Activity was highest around optimal values of connectivity, which must be evaluated for the different guilds and spatially targeted for a region's habitat configuration. In a multi-species approach, we recommend the reintroduction of structural elements to increase habitat heterogeneity should become part of agri-environment schemes.
Resumo:
Genetic characterization of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus pseudintermedius (MRSP) from Thailand and Israel revealed the presence of a predominant atypical clonal lineage which was not typeable by SmaI-PFGE and SCCmec typing. All the atypical isolates (n = 34) belonged to CC45 (30 ST45 and 2 ST179 isolates, 1 ST57 isolate, and 1 ST85 isolate). The isolates originated from healthy and diseased dogs and cats, as well as from the environment of one clinic. Cfr9I-pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (Cfr9I-PFGE) and dru typing permitted the further distinction of CC45 isolates from the two different countries. Microarray analysis identified genes that confer resistance to β-lactams (mecA; blaZ), aminoglycosides [aac(6')-Ie-aph(2')-Ia; aph(3')-III; ant(6)-Ia], macrolides and lincosamides [erm(B)], tetracyclines [tet(M)], trimethoprim [dfr(G)], streptothricin (sat4), and chloramphenicol (catpC221). Fluoroquinolone resistance was attributed to specific amino acid substitutions, i.e., Ser84Leu in GyrA and Ser80Ile and Asp84Asn in GrlA. A novel pseudo-staphylococcal cassette chromosome (ΨSCCmec57395) element was identified in MRSP strain 57395 (sequence type ST45) by whole-genome sequencing. The 12,282-bp ΨSCCmec57395 element contained a class C1 mec gene complex but no ccr genes. In addition to the methicillin resistance gene mecA, ΨSCCmec57395 also carried determinants of resistance to heavy metals, such as arsenic, cadmium, and copper. Bsu36I restriction analysis of the ΨSCCmec57395 element amplified by long-range PCR revealed the presence of ΨSCCmec57395 in the 33 additional isolates of MRSP CC45. The ΨSCCmec57395 element represents a new class of SCCmec and has been identified in MRSP of CC45, which is a predominant clonal lineage in Israel and Thailand.
Resumo:
We have recently developed a method to obtain distributed atomic polarizabilities adopting a partitioning of the molecular electron density (for example, the Quantum Theory of Atoms in Molecules, [1]), calculated with or without an applied electric field. The procedure [2] allows to obtained atomic polarizability tensors, which are perfectly exportable, because quite representative of an atom in a given functional group. Among the many applications of this idea, the calculation of crystal susceptibility is easily available, either from a rough estimation (the polarizability of the isolated molecule is used) or from a more precise estimation (the polarizability of a molecule embedded in a cluster representing the first coordination sphere is used). Lorentz factor is applied to include the long range effect of packing, which is enhancing the molecular polarizability. Simple properties like linear refractive index or the gyration tensor can be calculated at relatively low costs and with good precision. This approach is particularly useful within the field of crystal engineering of organic/organometallic materials, because it would allow a relatively easy prediction of a property as a function of the packing, thus allowing "reverse crystal engineering". Examples of some amino acid crystals and salts of amino acids [3] will be illustrated, together with other crystallographic or non-crystallographic applications. For example, the induction and dispersion energies of intermolecular interactions could be calculated with superior precision (allowing anisotropic van der Waals interactions). This could allow revision of some commonly misunderstood intermolecular interactions, like the halogen bonding (see for example the recent remarks by Stone or Gilli [4]). Moreover, the chemical reactivity of coordination complexes could be reinvestigated, by coupling the conventional analysis of the electrostatic potential (useful only in the circumstances of hard nucleophilic/electrophilic interaction) with the distributed atomic polarizability. The enhanced reactivity of coordinated organic ligands would be better appreciated. [1] R. F. W. Bader, Atoms in Molecules: A Quantum Theory. Oxford Univ. Press, 1990. [2] A. Krawczuk-Pantula, D. Pérez, K. Stadnicka, P. Macchi, Trans. Amer. Cryst. Ass. 2011, 1-25 [3] A. S. Chimpri1, M. Gryl, L. H.R. Dos Santos1, A. Krawczuk, P. Macchi Crystal Growth & Design, in the press. [4] a) A. J. Stone, J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2013, 135, 7005−7009; b) V. Bertolasi, P. Gilli, G. Gilli Crystal Growth & Design, 2013, 12, 4758-4770.
Resumo:
In order to study further the long-range correlations ("ridge") observed recently in p+Pb collisions at sqrt(s_NN) =5.02 TeV, the second-order azimuthal anisotropy parameter of charged particles, v_2, has been measured with the cumulant method using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. In a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of approximately 1 microb^(-1), the parameter v_2 has been obtained using two- and four-particle cumulants over the pseudorapidity range |eta|<2.5. The results are presented as a function of transverse momentum and the event activity, defined in terms of the transverse energy summed over 3.1
Resumo:
Magnitudes of peak discharges of 43 non-instrumentally measured Rhine river floods at Basel were reconstructed. The methodology is based on a range of different historic sources, containing flood information (including traditional urban inundation reference points from flood reports of medieval and early modern period chroniclers as well as 19th century journalists, flood marks, paintings and drawings, town maps, longitudinal and cross profiles etc.). These traditional pre-instrumental “flood information systems” still existed in the 19th century, when in 1808 the first instrumental hydrological measurements started. They thus could be calibrated with instrumental measurements in the 19th century overlapping period. The result is a 743 year long quantified Rhine river flood series. Floods of both periods (pre-instrumental as well as instrumental) can thus be directly compared for the very first time. The long-range consequences of rivers Kander and Aare deviations in 1714 and 1878 are reflected in a distinct change of magnitudes of peak discharges in Basel. A clear flood “disaster gap” appears in the 20th century. The lack of any extreme floods for such a long time is completely unique during the 743-year period of analysis. This result will influence the statistical assessment of once-in-a-century events, which might be of great interest for insurance campanies.
Resumo:
Three-dimensional oxalate-based {[Ru(bpy)3][Cu2xNi2(1-x)(ox)3]}n (0≤ x ≤ 1, ox = C2O42-, bpy = 2,2‘bipyridine) were synthesized. The structure was determined for x = 1 by X-ray diffraction on single crystal. The compound crystallizes in the cubic space group P4132. It shows a three-dimensional 10-gon 3-connected (10,3) anionic network where copper(II) has an unusual tris(bischelated) environment. X-ray powder diffraction patterns and their Rietveld refinement show that all the compounds along the series are isostructural and single-phased. According to X-ray absorption spectroscopy, copper(II) and nickel(II) have an octahedral environment, respectively elongated and trigonally distorted. As shown by natural circular dichroism, the optically active forms of {[Ru(bpy)3][CuxNi2(1-x)(ox)3]}n are obtained starting from resolved Δ- or Λ-[Ru(bpy)3]2+. The Curie−Weiss temperatures range between −55 (x = 1) and −150 K (x = 0). The antiferromagnetic exchange interaction thus decreases when the copper contents increases in agreement with the crystallographic structure of the compounds and the electronic structure of the metal ions. At low temperature, the compounds exhibit complex long-range ordered magnetic behavior.
Resumo:
Using molecular building blocks to self-assemble lattices supporting long-range magnetic order is currently an active area of solid-state chemistry. Consequently, it is the realm of supramolecular chemistry that synthetic chemists are turning to in order to develop techniques for the synthesis of structurally well-defined supramolecular materials. In recent years we have investigated the versatility and usefulness of two classes of molecular building blocks, namely, tris-oxalato transition-metal (M. Pilkington and S. Decurtins, in “Magnetoscience—From Molecules to Materials,” Wiley–VCH, 2000), and octacyanometalate complexes (Pilkington and Decurtins, Chimia 54, 593 (2001)), for applications in the field of molecule-based magnets. Anionic, tris-chelated oxalato building blocks are able to build up two-dimensional honeycomb-layered structural motifs as well as three-dimensional decagon frameworks. The discrimination between the crystallization of the two- or three-dimensional structures relies on the choice of the templating counterions (Decurtins, Chimia 52, 539 (1998); Decurtins et al. Mol. Cryst. Liq. Cryst. 273, 167 (1995); New J. Chem. 117 (1998)). These structural types display a range of ferro, ferri, and antiferromagnetic properties (Pilkington and Decurtins, in “Magnetoscience—From Molecules to Materials”). Octacyanometalate building blocks self-assemble to afford two new classes of cyano-bridged compounds namely, molecular clusters and extended three dimensional networks (J. Larionova et al., Angew. Chem. Int. Ed. 39, 1605 (2000); Pilkington et al., in preparation). The molecular cluster with a MnII9MoV6 core has the highest ground state spin value, S=51/2, reported to-date (Larionova et al., Angew. Chem. Int. Ed. 39, 1605 (2000)). In the high-temperature regime, the magnetic properties are characterized by ferromagnetic intracluster coupling. In the magnetic range below 44 K, the magnetic cluster signature is lost as possibly a bulk behavior starts to emerge. The three-dimensional networks exhibit both paramagnetic and ferromagnetic behavior, since the magnetic properties of these materials directly reflect the electronic configuration of the metal ion incorporated into the octacyanometalate building blocks (Pilkington et al., in preparation). For both the oxalate- and cyanide-bridged materials, we are able to manipulate the magnetic properties of the supramolecular assemblies by tuning the electronic configurations of the metal ions incorporated into the appropriate molecular building blocks (Pilkington and Decurtins, in “Magnetoscience—From Molecules to Materials,” Chimia 54, 593 (2000)).
Resumo:
The field of molecule-based magnets is a relatively new branch of chemistry, which involves the design and study of molecular compounds that exhibit a spontaneous magnetic ordering below a critical temperature, Tc. One major goal involves the design of materials with tuneable Tc's for specific applications in memory storage devices. Molecule-based magnets with high magnetic ordering temperatures have recently been obtained from bimetallic and mixed-valence transition metal μ-cyanide complexes of the Prussian blue family. Since the μ-cyanide linkages permit an interaction between paramagnetic metal ions, cyanometalate building blocks have found useful applications in the field of molecule-based magnets. Our work involves the use of octacyanometalate building blocks for the self-assembly of two new classes of magnetic materials namely, high-spin molecular clusters which exhibit both ferromagnetic intra- and intercluster coupling, and specific extended network topologies which show long-range ferromagnetic ordering.