60 resultados para Logistic regression model


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Purpose The effectiveness of vertebral augmentation techniques is a currently highly debated issue. The biomechanical literature suggests that cement filling volumes may play an important role in the ‘‘dosage’’ of vertebral augmentation and its pain alleviating effect. Good clinical data about filling volumes are scarce and most patient series are small. Therefore, we investigated the predictors of pain alleviation after balloon kyphoplasty in the nationwide SWISSspine registry where cement volumes are also recorded. Methods All single-level vertebral fractures with no additional fracture stabilization and availability of at least one follow-up within 6 months after surgery were included. The following potential predictors were assessed in a multivariate logistic regression model with the group’s average pain alleviation of 41 points on VAS as the desired outcome: patient age, patient sex, diagnosis, preoperative pain, level of fracture, type of fracture, age of fracture, segmental kyphotic deformity, cement volume, vertebral body filling volume, and cement extrusions. Results There were 194 female and 82 males with an average age of 70.4 and 65.3 years, respectively. Female patients were about twice as likely for achieving the average pain relief compared to males (p = 0.04). The preoperative pain level was the strongest predictor in that the likelihood for achieving an at least 41-point pain relief increased by about 8 % with each additional point of preoperative pain (p\0.001). A thoraco-lumbar fracture had a three times higher odds for the average pain relief compared with a lumbar fracture (p = 0.03). An A.3.1 fracture only had about a third of the probability for average pain relief compared with an A.1.1 fracture (p = 0.004). Cement volumes up to 4.5 ml only had an approximately 40 % chance for a minimum 41-point pain alleviation as compared with cement volumes of at least 4.5 ml (p = 0.007). In addition, the relationship between cement volume and pain alleviation followed a dose-dependent pattern. Conclusions Cement volume was revealed as a significant predictor for pain relief in BKP. Cement volume was the third most important influential covariate and the most important modifiable and operator dependent one. The clear dose-outcome relationship between cement filling volumes and pain relief additionally supports these findings. Cement volumes of [4.5 ml seem to be recommendable for achieving relevant pain alleviation. Patient sex and fracture type and location were further significant predictors and all these covariates should be recorded and reported in future studies about the pain alleviating effectiveness of vertebral augmentation procedures.

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INTRODUCTION: We evaluated treatment patterns of elderly patients with stage IIIA (N2) non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). METHODS: The use of surgery, chemotherapy, and radiation for patients with stage IIIA (T1-T3N2M0) NSCLC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare database from 2004 to 2007 was analyzed. Treatment variability was assessed using a multivariable logistic regression model that included treatment, patient, tumor, and census track variables. Overall survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier approach and Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: The most common treatments for 2958 patients with stage IIIA (N2) NSCLC were radiation with chemotherapy (n = 1065, 36%), no treatment (n = 534, 18%), and radiation alone (n = 383, 13%). Surgery was performed in 709 patients (24%): 235 patients (8%) had surgery alone, 40 patients (1%) had surgery with radiation, 222 patients had surgery with chemotherapy (8%), and 212 patients (7%) had surgery, chemotherapy, and radiation. Younger age (p < 0.0001), lower T-status (p < 0.0001), female sex (p = 0.04), and living in a census track with a higher median income (p = 0.03) predicted surgery use. Older age (p < 0.0001) was the only factor that predicted that patients did not get any therapy. The 3-year overall survival was 21.8 ± 1.5% for all patients, 42.1 ± 3.8% for patients that had surgery, and 15.4 ± 1.5% for patients that did not have surgery. Increasing age, higher T-stage and Charlson Comorbidity Index, and not having surgery, radiation, or chemotherapy were all risk factors for worse survival (all p values < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of elderly patients with stage IIIA (N2) NSCLC is highly variable and varies not only with specific patient and tumor characteristics but also with regional income level.

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BACKGROUND In Switzerland, the heptavalent (PCV7) and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) were recommended for all infants aged <2 years in 2007 and 2011, respectively. Due to herd effects, a protective impact on the invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) rates in adults had been expected. METHODS Within this study, data from the nationwide mandatory surveillance was analyzed for all adult patients ≥16 years with IPD of known serotype/serogroup during 2003-2012. Trend (for IPD cases from 2003 to 2012) and logistic regression analyses (2007-2010) were performed to identify changes in serotype distribution and to identify the association of serotypes with age, clinical manifestations, comorbidities and case fatality, respectively. FINDINGS The proportion of PCV7 serotypes among all IPD cases (n=7678) significantly declined in adults from 44.7% (2003) before to 16.7% (2012) after the recommendation of PCV7 (P<0.001). In contrast, the proportion of non-PCV7 serogroup/serotypes increased for non-PCV13 but also PCV13 serotypes (not included in PCV7) at the same time. Serotype distribution varied significantly across ages, clinical manifestations and comorbidities. Serotype was furthermore associated with case fatality (P=0.001). In a multivariable logistic regression model, analyzing single serotypes showed that case-fatality was increased for the serotypes 3 (P=0.008), 19A (P=0.03) and 19F (P=0.005), compared to serotype 1 and 7F. CONCLUSION There was a significant decline in PCV7 serotypes among adults with IPD in Switzerland after introduction of childhood vaccination with PCV7. Pneumococcal serotypes were associated with case fatality, age, clinical manifestation and comorbidities of IPD in adults. These results may prove useful for future vaccine recommendations for adults in Switzerland.

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BACKGROUND No reliable tool to predict outcome of acute kidney injury (AKI) exists. HYPOTHESIS A statistically derived scoring system can accurately predict outcome in dogs with AKI managed with hemodialysis. ANIMALS One hundred and eighty-two client-owned dogs with AKI. METHODS Logistic regression analyses were performed initially on clinical variables available on the 1st day of hospitalization for relevance to outcome. Variables with P< or = .1 were considered for further analyses. Continuous variables outside the reference range were divided into quartiles to yield quartile-specific odds ratios (ORs) for survival. Models were developed by incorporating weighting factors assigned to each quartile based on the OR, using either the integer value of the OR (Model A) or the exact OR (Models B or C, when the etiology was known). A predictive score for each model was calculated for each dog by summing all weighting factors. In Model D, actual values for continuous variables were used in a logistic regression model. Receiver-operating curve analyses were performed to assess sensitivities, specificities, and optimal cutoff points for all models. RESULTS Higher scores were associated with decreased probability of survival (P < .001). Models A, B, C, and D correctly classified outcomes in 81, 83, 87, and 76% of cases, respectively, and optimal sensitivities/specificities were 77/85, 81/85, 83/90 and 92/61%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE The models allowed outcome prediction that corresponded with actual outcome in our cohort. However, each model should be validated further in independent cohorts. The models may also be useful to assess AKI severity.

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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE To assess the association of lesion location and risk of aspiration and to establish predictors of transient versus extended risk of aspiration after supratentorial ischemic stroke. METHODS Atlas-based localization analysis was performed in consecutive patients with MRI-proven first-time acute supratentorial ischemic stroke. Standardized swallowing assessment was carried out within 8±18 hours and 7.8±1.2 days after admission. RESULTS In a prospective, longitudinal analysis, 34 of 94 patients (36%) were classified as having acute risk of aspiration, which was extended (≥7 days) or transient (<7 days) in 17 cases. There were no between-group differences in age, sex, cause of stroke, risk factors, prestroke disability, lesion side, or the degree of age-related white-matter changes. Correcting for stroke volume and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale with a multiple logistic regression model, significant adjusted odds ratios in favor of acute risk of aspiration were demonstrated for the internal capsule (adjusted odds ratio, 6.2; P<0.002) and the insular cortex (adjusted odds ratio, 4.8; P<0.003). In a multivariate model of extended versus transient risk of aspiration, combined lesions of the frontal operculum and insular cortex was the only significant independent predictor of poor recovery (adjusted odds ratio, 33.8; P<0.008). CONCLUSIONS Lesions of the insular cortex and the internal capsule are significantly associated with acute risk of aspiration after stroke. Combined ischemic infarctions of the frontal operculum and the insular cortex are likely to cause extended risk of aspiration in stroke patients, whereas risk of aspiration tends to be transient in subcortical stroke.

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Cisplatin, a major antineoplastic drug used in the treatment of solid tumors, is a known nephrotoxin. This retrospective cohort study evaluated the prevalence and severity of cisplatin nephrotoxicity in 54 children and its impact on height and weight.We recorded the weight, height, serum creatinine, and electrolytes in each cisplatin cycle and after 12 months of treatment. Nephrotoxicity was graded as follows: normal renal function (Grade 0); asymptomatic electrolyte disorders, including an increase in serum creatinine, up to 1.5 times baseline value (Grade 1); need for electrolyte supplementation <3 months and/or increase in serum creatinine 1.5 to 1.9 times from baseline (Grade 2); increase in serum creatinine 2 to 2.9 times from baseline or need for electrolyte supplementation for more than 3 months after treatment completion (Grade 3); and increase in serum creatinine ≥3 times from baseline or renal replacement therapy (Grade 4).Nephrotoxicity was observed in 41 subjects (75.9%). Grade 1 nephrotoxicity was observed in 18 patients (33.3%), Grade 2 in 5 patients (9.2%), and Grade 3 in 18 patients (33.3%). None had Grade 4 nephrotoxicity. Nephrotoxicity patients were younger and received higher cisplatin dose, they also had impairment in longitudinal growth manifested as statistically significant worsening on the height Z Score at 12 months after treatment. We used a multiple logistic regression model using the delta of height Z Score (baseline-12 months) as dependent variable in order to adjust for the main confounder variables such as: germ cell tumor, cisplatin total dose, serum magnesium levels at 12 months, gender, and nephrotoxicity grade. Patients with nephrotoxicity Grade 1 where at higher risk of not growing (OR 5.1, 95% CI 1.07-24.3, P=0.04). The cisplatin total dose had a significant negative relationship with magnesium levels at 12 months (Spearman r=-0.527, P=<0.001).

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BACKGROUND Renal damage is more frequent with new-generation lithotripters. However, animal studies suggest that voltage ramping minimizes the risk of complications following extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (SWL). In the clinical setting, the optimal voltage strategy remains unclear. OBJECTIVE To evaluate whether stepwise voltage ramping can protect the kidney from damage during SWL. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A total of 418 patients with solitary or multiple unilateral kidney stones were randomized to receive SWL using a Modulith SLX-F2 lithotripter with either stepwise voltage ramping (n=213) or a fixed maximal voltage (n=205). INTERVENTION SWL. OUTCOMES MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS The primary outcome was sonographic evidence of renal hematomas. Secondary outcomes included levels of urinary markers of renal damage, stone disintegration, stone-free rate, and rates of secondary interventions within 3 mo of SWL. Descriptive statistics were used to compare clinical outcomes between the two groups. A logistic regression model was generated to assess predictors of hematomas. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS Significantly fewer hematomas occurred in the ramping group(12/213, 5.6%) than in the fixed group (27/205, 13%; p=0.008). There was some evidence that the fixed group had higher urinary β2-microglobulin levels after SWL compared to the ramping group (p=0.06). Urinary microalbumin levels, stone disintegration, stone-free rate, and rates of secondary interventions did not significantly differ between the groups. The logistic regression model showed a significantly higher risk of renal hematomas in older patients (odds ratio [OR] 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-1.05; p=0.04). Stepwise voltage ramping was associated with a lower risk of hematomas (OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.19-0.80; p=0.01). The study was limited by the use of ultrasound to detect hematomas. CONCLUSIONS In this prospective randomized study, stepwise voltage ramping during SWL was associated with a lower risk of renal damage compared to a fixed maximal voltage without compromising treatment effectiveness. PATIENT SUMMARY Lithotripsy is a noninvasive technique for urinary stone disintegration using ultrasonic energy. In this study, two voltage strategies are compared. The results show that a progressive increase in voltage during lithotripsy decreases the risk of renal hematomas while maintaining excellent outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ISRCTN95762080.

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Cancer is one of the leading causes of death in companion animals. Information on the epidemiology of cancer is instrumental for veterinary practitioners in patient management; however, spontaneously arising tumours in companion animals also resemble those in man and can provide useful data in combating cancer. Veterinary cancer registries for cats are few in number and have often remained short-lived. This paper presents a retrospective study of tumours in cats in Switzerland from 1965 to 2008. Tumour diagnoses were coded according to topographical and morphological keys of the International Classification of Oncology for Humans (ICD-O-3). Correlations between breed, sex and age were then examined using a multiple logistic regression model. A total of 18,375 tumours were diagnosed in 51,322 cats. Of these, 14,759 (80.3%) tumours were malignant. Several breeds had significantly lower odds ratios for developing a tumour compared with European shorthair cats. The odds of a cat developing a tumour increased with age, up to the age of 16 years, and female cats had higher risk of developing a tumour compared with male cats. Skin (4,970; 27.05%) was the most frequent location for tumours, followed by connective tissue (3,498; 19.04%), unknown location (2,532; 13.78%) and female sexual organs (1,564; 8.51%). The most common tumour types were epithelial tumours (7,913; 43.06%), mesenchymal tumours (5,142; 27.98%) and lymphoid tumours (3,911; 21.28%).

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BACKGROUND Erosive tooth wear is the irreversible loss of dental hard tissue as a result of chemical processes. When the surface of a tooth is attacked by acids, the resulting loss of structural integrity leaves a softened layer on the tooth's surface, which renders it vulnerable to abrasive forces. The authors' objective was to estimate the prevalence of erosive tooth wear and to identify associated factors in a sample of 14- to 19-year-old adolescents in Mexico. METHODS The authors performed a cross-sectional study on a convenience sample (N = 417) of adolescents in a school in Mexico City, Mexico. The authors used a questionnaire and an oral examination performed according to the Lussi index. RESULTS The prevalence of erosive tooth wear was 31.7% (10.8% with exposed dentin). The final logistic regression model included age (P < .01; odds ratio [OR], 1.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26-2.13), high intake of sweet carbonated drinks (P = .03; OR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.06-3.07), and xerostomia (P = .04; OR, 2.31; 95% CI, 1.05-5.09). CONCLUSIONS Erosive tooth wear, mainly on the mandibular first molars, was associated with age, high intake of sweet carbonated drinks, and xerostomia. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS Knowledge regarding erosive tooth wear in adolescents with relatively few years of exposure to causal factors will increase the focus on effective preventive measures, the identification of people at high risk, and early treatment.

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BACKGROUND Patients with electrolyte imbalances or disorders have a high risk of mortality. It is unknown if this finding from sodium or potassium disorders extends to alterations of magnesium levels. METHODS AND PATIENTS In this cross-sectional analysis, all emergency room patients between 2010 and 2011 at the Inselspital Bern, Switzerland, were included. A multivariable logistic regression model was performed to assess the association between magnesium levels and in-hospital mortality up to 28days. RESULTS A total of 22,239 subjects were screened for the study. A total of 5339 patients had plasma magnesium concentrations measured at hospital admission and were included into the analysis. A total of 6.3% of the 352 patients with hypomagnesemia and 36.9% of the 151 patients with hypermagnesemia died. In a multivariate Cox regression model hypermagnesemia (HR 11.6, p<0.001) was a strong independent risk factor for mortality. In these patients diuretic therapy revealed to be protective (HR 0.5, p=0.007). Hypomagnesemia was not associated with mortality (p>0.05). Age was an independent risk factor for mortality (both p<0.001). CONCLUSION The study does demonstrate a possible association between hypermagnesemia measured upon admission in the emergency department, and early in-hospital mortality.

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BACKGROUND Risk factors promoting rhinovirus (RV) infections are inadequately described in healthy populations, especially infants. OBJECTIVES To determine the frequency of symptomatic and asymptomatic RV infections and identify possible risk factors from host and environment among otherwise healthy infants. METHODS In a prospective birth cohort, respiratory health was assessed in 41 term-born infants by weekly telephone interviews during the first year of life, and weekly nasal swabs were collected to determine RV prevalence. In a multilevel logistic regression model, associations between prevalence and respiratory symptoms during RV infections and host/environmental factors were determined. RESULTS 27% of nasal swabs in 41 infants tested positive for RVs. Risk factors for RV prevalence were autumn months (OR=1.71, p=0.01, 95% CI 1.13-2.61), outdoor temperatures between 5-10 °C (OR=2.33, p=0.001, 95% CI 1.41-3.86), older siblings (OR=2.60, p=0.001, 95% CI 1.50-4.51) and childcare attendance (OR=1.53, p=0.07, 95% CI 0.96-2.44). 51% of RV-positive samples were asymptomatic. Respiratory symptoms during RV infections were less likely during the first three months of life (OR=0.34, p=0.003, 95% CI 0.17-0.69) and in infants with atopic mothers (OR=0.44, p=0.008, 95% CI 0.24-0.80). Increased tidal volume (OR=1.67, p=0.03, 95% CI 1.04-2.68) and outdoor temperatures between 2-5 °C (OR=2.79, p=0.02, 95% CI 1.17-6.61) were associated with more symptoms. CONCLUSIONS RVs are highly prevalent during the first year of life, and most infections are asymptomatic. Frequency of RV infections is associated with environmental factors, while respiratory symptoms during RV infections are linked to host determinants like infant age, maternal atopy, or premorbid lung function.

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PURPOSE To explore whether population-related pharmacogenomics contribute to differences in patient outcomes between clinical trials performed in Japan and the United States, given similar study designs, eligibility criteria, staging, and treatment regimens. METHODS We prospectively designed and conducted three phase III trials (Four-Arm Cooperative Study, LC00-03, and S0003) in advanced-stage, non-small-cell lung cancer, each with a common arm of paclitaxel plus carboplatin. Genomic DNA was collected from patients in LC00-03 and S0003 who received paclitaxel (225 mg/m(2)) and carboplatin (area under the concentration-time curve, 6). Genotypic variants of CYP3A4, CYP3A5, CYP2C8, NR1I2-206, ABCB1, ERCC1, and ERCC2 were analyzed by pyrosequencing or by PCR restriction fragment length polymorphism. Results were assessed by Cox model for survival and by logistic regression for response and toxicity. Results Clinical results were similar in the two Japanese trials, and were significantly different from the US trial, for survival, neutropenia, febrile neutropenia, and anemia. There was a significant difference between Japanese and US patients in genotypic distribution for CYP3A4*1B (P = .01), CYP3A5*3C (P = .03), ERCC1 118 (P < .0001), ERCC2 K751Q (P < .001), and CYP2C8 R139K (P = .01). Genotypic associations were observed between CYP3A4*1B for progression-free survival (hazard ratio [HR], 0.36; 95% CI, 0.14 to 0.94; P = .04) and ERCC2 K751Q for response (HR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.13 to 0.83; P = .02). For grade 4 neutropenia, the HR for ABCB1 3425C-->T was 1.84 (95% CI, 0.77 to 4.48; P = .19). CONCLUSION Differences in allelic distribution for genes involved in paclitaxel disposition or DNA repair were observed between Japanese and US patients. In an exploratory analysis, genotype-related associations with patient outcomes were observed for CYP3A4*1B and ERCC2 K751Q. This common-arm approach facilitates the prospective study of population-related pharmacogenomics in which ethnic differences in antineoplastic drug disposition are anticipated.

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IMPORTANCE Because effective interventions to reduce hospital readmissions are often expensive to implement, a score to predict potentially avoidable readmissions may help target the patients most likely to benefit. OBJECTIVE To derive and internally validate a prediction model for potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients using administrative and clinical data readily available prior to discharge. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. SETTING Academic medical center in Boston, Massachusetts. PARTICIPANTS All patient discharges from any medical services between July 1, 2009, and June 30, 2010. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Potentially avoidable 30-day readmissions to 3 hospitals of the Partners HealthCare network were identified using a validated computerized algorithm based on administrative data (SQLape). A simple score was developed using multivariable logistic regression, with two-thirds of the sample randomly selected as the derivation cohort and one-third as the validation cohort. RESULTS Among 10 731 eligible discharges, 2398 discharges (22.3%) were followed by a 30-day readmission, of which 879 (8.5% of all discharges) were identified as potentially avoidable. The prediction score identified 7 independent factors, referred to as the HOSPITAL score: h emoglobin at discharge, discharge from an o ncology service, s odium level at discharge, p rocedure during the index admission, i ndex t ype of admission, number of a dmissions during the last 12 months, and l ength of stay. In the validation set, 26.7% of the patients were classified as high risk, with an estimated potentially avoidable readmission risk of 18.0% (observed, 18.2%). The HOSPITAL score had fair discriminatory power (C statistic, 0.71) and had good calibration. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This simple prediction model identifies before discharge the risk of potentially avoidable 30-day readmission in medical patients. This score has potential to easily identify patients who may need more intensive transitional care interventions.

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PURPOSE Rapid assessment and intervention is important for the prognosis of acutely ill patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). The aim of this study was to prospectively develop and validate a model predicting the risk of in-hospital death based on all available information available at the time of ED admission and to compare its discriminative performance with a non-systematic risk estimate by the triaging first health-care provider. METHODS Prospective cohort analysis based on a multivariable logistic regression for the probability of death. RESULTS A total of 8,607 consecutive admissions of 7,680 patients admitted to the ED of a tertiary care hospital were analysed. Most frequent APACHE II diagnostic categories at the time of admission were neurological (2,052, 24 %), trauma (1,522, 18 %), infection categories [1,328, 15 %; including sepsis (357, 4.1 %), severe sepsis (249, 2.9 %), septic shock (27, 0.3 %)], cardiovascular (1,022, 12 %), gastrointestinal (848, 10 %) and respiratory (449, 5 %). The predictors of the final model were age, prolonged capillary refill time, blood pressure, mechanical ventilation, oxygen saturation index, Glasgow coma score and APACHE II diagnostic category. The model showed good discriminative ability, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92 and good internal validity. The model performed significantly better than non-systematic triaging of the patient. CONCLUSIONS The use of the prediction model can facilitate the identification of ED patients with higher mortality risk. The model performs better than a non-systematic assessment and may facilitate more rapid identification and commencement of treatment of patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.

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Aim: To investigate the association of the Periodontal Risk Assessment (PRA) model categories with periodontitis recurrence and tooth loss during supportive periodontal therapy (SPT) and to explore the role of patient compliance. Material and Methods: In a retrospective cohort, PRA was performed for 160 patients after active periodontal therapy (APT) and after 9.5 ± 4.5 years of SPT. The recurrence of periodontitis and tooth loss were analysed according to the patient's risk profile (low, moderate or high) after APT and compliance with SPT. The association of risk factors with tooth loss and recurrence of periodontitis was investigated using logistic regression analysis. Results: In 18.2% of patients with a low-risk profile, in 42.2% of patients with a moderate-risk profile and in 49.2% of patients with a high-risk profile after APT, periodontitis recurred. During SPT, 1.61 ± 2.8 teeth/patient were lost. High-risk profile patients lost significantly more teeth (2.59 ± 3.9) than patients with moderate- (1.02 ± 1.8) or low-risk profiles (1.18 ± 1.9) (Kruskal–Wallis test, p=0.0229). Patients with erratic compliance lost significantly (Kruskal–Wallis test, p=0.0067) more teeth (3.11 ± 4.5) than patients compliant with SPT (1.07 ± 1.6). Conclusions: In multivariate logistic regression analysis, a high-risk patient profile according to the PRA model at the end of APT was associated with recurrence of periodontitis. Another significant factor for recurrence of periodontitis was an SPT duration of more than 10 years.