The past ecology of Abies alba provides new perspectives on future responses of silver fir forests to global warming

Paleoecology can provide valuable insights into the ecology of species that complement observation and experiment-based assessments of climate impact dynamics. New paleoecological records (e.g., pollen, macrofossils) from the Italian Peninsula suggest a much wider climatic niche of the important European tree species Abies alba (silver fir) than observed in its present spatial range. To explore this discrepancy between current and past distribution of the species, we analyzed climatic data (temperature, precipitation, frost, humidity, sunshine) and vegetation-independent paleoclimatic reconstructions (e.g., lake levels, chironomids) and use global coupled carbon-cycle climate (NCAR CSM1.4) and dynamic vegetation (LandClim) modeling. The combined evidence suggests that during the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago), prior to humanization of vegetation, A. alba formed forests under conditions that exceeded the modern (1961-1990) upper temperature limit of the species by 5-7°C (July means). Annual precipitation during this natural period was comparable to today (>700-800 mm), with drier summers and wetter winters. In the meso-Mediterranean to sub-Mediterranean forests A. alba co-occurred with thermophilous taxa such as Quercus ilex, Q. pubescens, Olea europaea, Phillyrea, Arbutus, Cistus, Tilia, Ulmus, Acer, Hedera helix, Ilex aquifolium, Taxus, and Vitis. Results from the last interglacial (ca. 130 000-115 000 BP), when human impact was negligible, corroborate the Holocene evidence. Thermophilous Mediterranean A. alba stands became extinct during the last 5000 years when land-use pressure and specifically excessive anthropogenic fire and browsing disturbance increased. Our results imply that the ecology of this key European tree species is not yet well understood. On the basis of the reconstructed realized climatic niche of the species, we anticipate that the future geographic range of A. alba may not contract regardless of migration success, even if climate should become significantly warmer than today with summer temperatures increasing by up to 5-7°C, as long as precipitation does not fall below 700-800 mm/yr, and anthropogenic disturbance (e.g., fire, browsing) does not become excessive. Our finding contradicts recent studies that projected range contractions under global-warming scenarios, but did not factor how millennia of human impacts reduced the realized climatic niche of A. alba.

Direct male-male competition can facilitate invasion of new colour types in Lake Victoria cichlids

The possibility that disruptive sexual selection alone can cause sympatric speciation is currently a subject of much debate. The initial difficulty for new and rare ornament phenotypes to invade a population, and the stabilisation of the resulting polymorphism in trait and preference make this hypothesis problematic. Recent theoretical work indicates that the invasion is facilitated if males with the new phenotype have an initial advantage in male-male competition. We studied a pair of sympatric incipient species of cichlids from Lake Victoria, in which the red (Pundamilia nyererei) and blue males (P. pundamilia) vigorously defend territories. Other studies suggested that red phenotypes may have repeatedly invaded blue populations in independent episodes of speciation. We hypothesised that red coloration confers an advantage in male-male competition, assisting red phenotypes to invade. To test this hypothesis, we staged contests between red and blue males from a population where the phenotypes are interbreeding morphs or incipient species. We staged contests under both white and green light condition. Green light effectively masks the difference between red and blue coloration. Red males dominated blue males under white light, but their competitive advantage was significantly diminished under green light. Contests were shorter when colour differences were visible. Experience of blue males with red males did not affect the outcome of a contest. The advantage of red over blue in combats may assist the red phenotype to invade blue populations. The apparently stable co-existence of red and blue incipient species in many populations of Lake Victoria cichlids is discussed.

Modelling Lake Kivu water level variations over the last seven decades

This study aimed at analysing the hydrological changes in the Lake Kivu Basin over the last seven decades with focus on the response of the lake water level to meteorological factors and hydropower dam construction. Historical precipitation and lake water levels were acquired from literature, local agencies and from global databases in order to compile a coherent dataset. The net lake inflow was modelled using a soil water balance model and the water levels were reconstructed using a parsimonious lake water balance model. The soil water balance shows that 370 mm yr−1 (25%) of the precipitation in the catchment contributes to the runoff and baseflow whereas 1100 mm yr−1 (75%) contributes to the evapotranspiration. A review of the lake water balance resulted in the following estimates of hydrological contributions: 55%, 25%, and 20% of the overall inputs from precipitation, surface inflows, and subaquatic groundwater discharge, respectively. The overall losses were 58% and 42% for lake surface evaporation and outflow discharge, respectively. The hydrological model used indicated a remarkable sensitivity of the lake water levels to hydrometeorological variability up to 1977, when the outflow bed was artificially widened.

Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria's ecosystem services

East Africa’s Lake Victoria provides resources and services to millions of people on the lake’s shores and abroad. In particular, the lake’s fisheries are an important source of protein, employment, and international economic connections for the whole region. Nonetheless, stock dynamics are poorly understood and currently unpredictable. Furthermore, fishery dynamics are intricately connected to other supporting services of the lake as well as to lakeshore societies and economies. Much research has been carried out piecemeal on different aspects of Lake Victoria’s system; e.g., societies, biodiversity, fisheries, and eutrophication. However, to disentangle drivers and dynamics of change in this complex system, we need to put these pieces together and analyze the system as a whole. We did so by first building a qualitative model of the lake’s social-ecological system. We then investigated the model system through a qualitative loop analysis, and finally examined effects of changes on the system state and structure. The model and its contextual analysis allowed us to investigate system-wide chain reactions resulting from disturbances. Importantly, we built a tool that can be used to analyze the cascading effects of management options and establish the requirements for their success. We found that high connectedness of the system at the exploitation level, through fisheries having multiple target stocks, can increase the stocks’ vulnerability to exploitation but reduce society’s vulnerability to variability in individual stocks. We describe how there are multiple pathways to any change in the system, which makes it difficult to identify the root cause of changes but also broadens the management toolkit. Also, we illustrate how nutrient enrichment is not a self-regulating process, and that explicit management is necessary to halt or reverse eutrophication. This model is simple and usable to assess system-wide effects of management policies, and can serve as a paving stone for future quantitative analyses of system dynamics at local scales.

Biodiversity and Fishery Sustainability in the Lake Victoria Basin: An Unexpected Marriage?

Lake Victoria is Africa’s single most important source of inland fishery production. After it was initially fished down in the first half of the 20th century, Lake Victoria became home to a series of introduced food fishes, culminating in the eventual demographic dominance of the Nile perch, Lates niloticus. Simultaneously with the changes in fish stocks, Lake Victoria experienced dramatic changes in its ecology. The lake fishery during most of the 20th century was a multispecies fishery resting on a diverse lake ecosystem, in which native food fishes were targeted. The lake ended the century with a much more productive fishery, but one in which three species — two of them introduced — made up the majority of the catch. Although many fish stocks in Lake Victoria had declined before the expansion of the Nile perch population, a dramatic increase in the population size of Nile perch in the 1980s roughly coincided with the drastic decline or disappearance of many indigenous species. Now, two decades after the rise of Nile perch in Lake Victoria, this species has shown signs of being overfished, and some of the native species that were in retreat — or even thought extinct — are now reemerging. Data on the resurgence of the indigenous species suggest that heavy fishing of Nile perch may enhance biodiversity; this has spawned renewed interest in management options that promote both fishery sustainability and biodiversity conservation.

Can sympatric speciation by disruptive sexual selection explain rapid evolution of cichlid diversity in Lake Victoria?

Rapid speciation can occur on ecological time scales and interfere with ecological processes, resulting in species distribution patterns that are difficult to reconcile with ecological theory. The haplochromine cichlids in East African lakes are an extreme example of rapid speciation. We analyse the causes of their high speciation rates. Various studies have identified disruptive sexual selection acting on colour polymorphisms that might cause sympatric speciation. Using data on geographical distribution, colouration and relatedness from 41 species endemic to Lake Victoria, we test predictions from this hypothesis. Plotting numbers of pairs of closely related species against the amount of distributional overlap between the species reveals a bimodal distribution with modes on allopatric and sympatric. The proportion of sister species pairs that are heteromorphic for the traits under disruptive selection is higher in sympatry than in allopatry. These data support the hypothesis that disruptive sexual selection on colour polymorphisms has caused sympatric speciation and help to explain the rapid radiation of haplochromine species flocks.

The effect of male coloration on female mate choice in closely related Lake Victoria cichlids (Haplochromis nyererei complex)

We studied the effect of male coloration on interspeciÆc female mate choice in two closely related species of haplochromine cichlids from Lake Victoria. The species differ primarily in male coloration. Males of one species are red, those of the other are blue. We re- corded the behavioral responses of females to males of both species in paired male trials under white light and under monochromatic light, under which the interspecific differences in coloration were masked. Females of both species exhibited species-assortative mate choice when colour differences were visible, but chose non-assortatively when colour differences were masked by light conditions. Neither male behaviour nor overall female response frequencies differed between light treatments. That female preferences could be altered by manipulating the perceived colour pattern implies that the colour itself is used in interspecific mate choice, rather than other characters. Hence, male coloration in haplochromine cichlids does underlie sexual selection by direct mate choice, involving the capacity for individual assessment of potential mates by the female. Females of both species responded more frequently to blue males under monochromatic light. Blue males were larger and displayed more than red males. This implies a hierarchy of choice criteria. Females may use male display rates, size, or both when colour is unavailable. Where available, colour has gained dominance over other criteria. This may explain rapid speciation by sexual selection on male coloration, as proposed in a recent mathematical model.

Direct mate choice maintains diversity among sympatric cichlids in Lake Victoria

Mate choice may play an important role in animal speciation. The haplochromine cichlids of Lake Victoria are suitable to test this hypothesis. Diversity in ecology, coloration and anatomy evolved in these fish faster than postzygotic barriers to gene flow, and little is known about how this diversity is maintained. It was tested whether recognizable forms are selection-maintained morphs or reproductively isolated species by investigating in the field reproductive timing, location of spawning sites, and mate choice behaviour. There was a large interspecific overlap in timing of breeding and location of spawning sites, which was largest in members of the same genus. Behavioural mate choice of such closely related taxa was highly assortative, such that it is likely that they are sexually isolated species and that direct mate choice is the major force that directs gene flow and maintains form diversity. The results differ from what is known about recent radiations of other lacustrine fish groups where speciation seems to be driven by diverging microhabitat preferences or diverging timing of reproduction, but are in agreement with predictions from models of speciation by diverging mate preferences.

Bryozoan stable carbon and hydrogen isotopes: relationships between the isotopic composition of zooids, statoblasts and lake water

We explored the extent to which δ13C and δD values of freshwater bryozoan statoblasts can provide information about the isotopic composition of zooids, bryozoan food and surrounding water. Bryozoan samples were collected from 23 sites and encompassed ranges of nearly 30‰ for δ13C and 100‰ for δD values. δ13C offsets between zooids and statoblasts generally ranged from −3 to +4.5‰, with larger offsets observed in four samples. However, a laboratory study with Plumatella emarginata and Lophopus crystallinus demonstrated that, in controlled settings, zooids had only 0–1.2‰ higher δ13C values than statoblasts, and 1.7‰ higher values than their food. At our field sites, we observed a strong positive correlation between median δ13C values of zooids and median δ13C values of corresponding statoblasts. We also observed a positive correlation between median δD values of zooids and statoblasts for Plumatella, and a positive correlation between median δD values of statoblasts and δD values of lake water for Plumatella and when all bryozoan taxa were examined together. Our results suggest that isotope measurements on statoblasts collected from flotsam or sediment samples can provide information on the feeding ecology of bryozoans and the H isotopic composition of lake water.

Ecosystem size matters: The dimensionality of intralacustrine diversification in Icelandic stickleback is predicted by lake size

Cases of evolutionary diversification can be characterized along a continuum from weak to strong genetic and phenotypic differentiation. Several factors may facilitate or constrain the differentiation process. Comparative analyses of replicates of the same taxon at different stages of differentiation can be useful to identify these factors. We estimated the number of distinct phenotypic groups in threespine stickleback populations from nine lakes in Iceland and in one marine population. Using the inferred number of phenotypic groups in each lake, genetic divergence from the marine population, and physical lake and landscape variables, we tested if ecosystem size, approximated by lake size and depth, or isolation from the ancestral marine gene pool predict the occurrence and the extent of phenotypic and genetic diversification within lakes. We find intralacustrine phenotypic diversification to be the rule rather than the exception, occurring in all but the youngest lake population and being manifest in ecologically important phenotypic traits. Neutral genetic data further indicates non-random mating in four out of nine studied lakes, and restricted gene flow between sympatric phenotypic groups in two. Although neither the phenotypic variation nor the number of intralacustrine phenotypic groups were associated with any of our environmental variables, the number of phenotypic traits that were differentiated was significantly positively related to lake size, and evidence for restricted gene flow between sympatric phenotypic groups was only found in the largest lakes where trait specific phenotypic differentiation was highest.

Lake-effect snow as the dominant control of mesic-forest distribution in Michigan, USA

1Recent studies demonstrated the sensitivity of northern forest ecosystems to changes in the amount and duration of snow cover at annual to decadal time scales. However, the consequences of snowfall variability remain uncertain for ecological variables operating at longer time scales, especially the distributions of forest communities. 2The Great Lakes region of North America offers a unique setting to examine the long-term effects of variable snowfall on forest communities. Lake-effect snow produces a three-fold gradient in annual snowfall over tens of kilometres, and dramatic edaphic variations occur among landform types resulting from Quaternary glaciations. We tested the hypothesis that these factors interact to control the distributions of mesic (dominated by Acer saccharum, Tsuga canadensis and Fagus grandifolia) and xeric forests (dominated by Pinus and Quercus spp.) in northern Lower Michigan. 3We compiled pre-European-settlement vegetation data and overlaid these data with records of climate, water balance and soil, onto Landtype Association polygons in a geographical information system. We then used multivariate adaptive regression splines to model the abundance of mesic vegetation in relation to environmental controls. 4Snowfall is the most predictive among five variables retained by our model, and it affects model performance 29% more than soil texture, the second most important variable. The abundance of mesic trees is high on fine-textured soils regardless of snowfall, but it increases with snowfall on coarse-textured substrates. Lake-effect snowfall also determines the species composition within mesic forests. The weighted importance of A. saccharum is significantly greater than of T. canadensis or F. grandifolia within the lake-effect snowbelt, whereas T. canadensis is more plentiful outside the snowbelt. These patterns are probably driven by the influence of snowfall on soil moisture, nutrient availability and fire return intervals. 5Our results imply that a key factor dictating the spatio-temporal patterns of forest communities in the vast region around the Great Lakes is how the lake-effect snowfall regime responds to global change. Snowfall reductions will probably cause a major decrease in the abundance of ecologically and economically important species, such as A. saccharum.