Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

Appearance of red mark syndrome / cold water strawberry disease in Switzerland and Austria

Red mark syndrome (RMS) or cold water strawberry disease (CWSD) is a non-lethal skin disease of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss that is of high economic importance in the UK. The disease is temperature-dependent, with up to 60% morbidity at water temperatures below 15 degrees C. Although CWSD is horizontally transmissible, the aetiology is still unknown. Here we describe the first cases of RMS on the European mainland in the alpine regions of Switzerland and Austria. In Switzerland, morbidity remained around 1% after the first outbreak, whereas in Austria no further cases were diagnosed.

In vitro drug causality assessment in Stevens-Johnson syndrome - alternatives for lymphocyte transformation test

BACKGROUND Patients with Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS) or toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) are often exposed simultaneously to a few potentially culprit drugs. However, both the standard lymphocyte transformation tests (LTT) with proliferation as the assay end-point as well as skin tests, if done, are often negative. OBJECTIVE As provocation tests are considered too dangerous, there is an urgent need to identify the relevant drug in SJS/TEN and to improve sensitivity of tests able to identify the causative drug. METHODS Fifteen patients with SJS/TEN with the ALDEN score ≥ 6 and 18 drug-exposed controls were included. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) were isolated and cultured under defined conditions with drugs. LTT was compared to the following end-points: cytokine levels in cell culture supernatant, number of granzyme B secreting cells by ELISpot and intracellular staining for granulysin and IFNγ in CD3(+) CD4(+), CD3(+) CD8(+) and NKp46(+) cells. To further enhance sensitivity, the effect of IL-7/IL-15 pre-incubation of PBMC was evaluated. RESULTS Lymphocyte transformation tests was positive in only 4/15 patients (sensitivity 27%, CI: 8-55%). Similarly, with granzyme B-ELISpot culprit drugs were positive in 5/15 patients (sensitivity 33%, CI: 12-62%). The expression of granulysin was significantly induced in NKp46(+) and CD3(+) CD4(+) cells (sensitivity 40%, CI: 16-68% and 53%, CI: 27-79% respectively). Cytokine production could be demonstrated in 38%, CI: 14-68% and 43%, CI: 18-71% of patients for IL-2 and IL-5, respectively, and in 55%, CI: 23-83% for IFNγ. Pre-incubation with IL-7/IL-15 enhanced drug-specific response only in a few patients. Specificities of tested assays were in the range of 95 (CI: 80-99%)-100% (CI: 90-100%). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Granulysin expression in CD3(+) CD4(+) , Granzyme B-ELISpot and IFNγ production considered together provided a sensitivity of 80% (CI: 52-96%) and specificity of 95% (80-99%). Thus, this study demonstrated that combining different assays may be a feasible approach to identify the causative drug of SJS/TEN reactions; however, confirmation on another group of patients is necessary.

[Drug-induced Stevens-Johnson syndrome in a patient with AIDS]

The Stevens-Johnson syndrome is a severe potentially life-threatening form of the erythema multiforme, affecting both skin and mucous membranes. We present a case of a 49-year-old male patient with AIDS who developed a Stevens-Johnson syndrome while being treated with pyrimethamine, sulfadiazine and phenytoin for cerebral toxoplasmosis. Further diagnostic evaluation of this dangerous cutaneous affection may prove difficult for several reasons. In particular, in patients with AIDS who are more susceptible for adverse drug reactions and who are simultaneously receiving a variety of drugs with a considerable potential of cutaneous side effects, therapy cannot be withhold for lack of therapeutic alternatives. Moreover, the low lymphocyte count in this case may have made reliable testing with lymphocyte transformation studies impossible. The evaluation and the differential diagnosis of the drug-induced Stevens-Johnson syndrome are discussed. Especially long- and moderately long-acting sulfonamides belong to the most important agents that can cause a drug-induced Stevens-Johnson syndrome. The pathogenesis and the risk factors for cutaneous hypersensitivity reactions in HIV-infected patients are only poorly understood. These kind of reactions, however, seem to occur more often in patients with a more advanced immunodeficiency.

Genetic association study of QT interval highlights role for calcium signaling pathways in myocardial repolarization

The QT interval, an electrocardiographic measure reflecting myocardial repolarization, is a heritable trait. QT prolongation is a risk factor for ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death (SCD) and could indicate the presence of the potentially lethal mendelian long-QT syndrome (LQTS). Using a genome-wide association and replication study in up to 100,000 individuals, we identified 35 common variant loci associated with QT interval that collectively explain ∼8-10% of QT-interval variation and highlight the importance of calcium regulation in myocardial repolarization. Rare variant analysis of 6 new QT interval-associated loci in 298 unrelated probands with LQTS identified coding variants not found in controls but of uncertain causality and therefore requiring validation. Several newly identified loci encode proteins that physically interact with other recognized repolarization proteins. Our integration of common variant association, expression and orthogonal protein-protein interaction screens provides new insights into cardiac electrophysiology and identifies new candidate genes for ventricular arrhythmias, LQTS and SCD.

A patterned abrasion caused by the impact of a cartridge case may simulate an atypical muzzle imprint mark.

In contact shots, the muzzle imprint is an informative finding associated with the entrance wound. It typically mirrors the constructional components being in line with the muzzle or just behind. Under special conditions, other patterned skin marks located near a gunshot entrance wound may give the impression to be part of the muzzle imprint. A potential mechanism causing a patterned pressure abrasion in close proximity to the bullet entrance site is demonstrated on the basis of a suicidal shot to the temple. The skin lesion in question appeared as a ring-shaped excoriation with a diameter corresponding to that of the cartridge case. Two hypotheses concerning the causative mechanism were investigated by test shots: - After being ejected, the cartridge case ricocheted inside a confined space (car cabin in the particular case) and secondarily hit the skin near the gunshot entrance wound. - The ejection of the cartridge case failed so that the case became stuck in the ejection port and its mouth contacted the skin when the body collapsed after being hit.

Does autogamy contribute to invasion in Lilium formosanum?

The Taiwanese geophyte Lilium formosanum is invasive in the eastern parts of South Africa. Although it is capable of autogamy, a pollinator, the hawkmoth Agrius convolvuli, is present. Reproduction may therefore take place both by self- and cross-fertilisation. The relative importance of these modes of pollination for seed production is evaluated using emasculation experiments. The potential contributions of outcrossed and selfed progeny to invasion are assessed in progeny performance trials.