On low-dimensional projections of high-dimensional distributions

Let P be a probability distribution on q -dimensional space. The so-called Diaconis-Freedman effect means that for a fixed dimension d<projections of P look like a scale mixture of spherically symmetric Gaussian distributions. The present paper provides necessary and sufficient conditions for this phenomenon in a suitable asymptotic framework with increasing dimension q . It turns out, that the conditions formulated by Diaconis and Freedman (1984) are not only sufficient but necessary as well. Moreover, letting P ^ be the empirical distribution of n independent random vectors with distribution P , we investigate the behavior of the empirical process n √ (P ^ −P) under random projections, conditional on P ^ .

The effect of projections on dimension in the Heisenberg group

We prove analogs of classical almost sure dimension theorems for Euclidean projection mappings in the first Heisenberg group, equipped with a sub-Riemannian metric.

Correlation between broiler lameness and anatomical measurements of bone using radiographical projections with assessments of consistency across and within radiographs.

Lameness represents a major welfare and production issue in the poultry industry with a recent survey estimating 27% of birds lame and 3% unable to walk by 40 d of age. A variety of factors may induce lameness and are typically grouped into 2 broad classes on the basis of being infectious or skeletal in nature with the latter accounting for the majority of cases. The current work sought to build upon a large body of literature assessing the anatomical properties of bone in lame birds. Our specific objectives sought to identify relationships between relevant anatomical properties of the tibia and metatarsus using digital quantification from radiographs of legs and a measure of walking difficulty. Resulting output was statistically analyzed to assess 1) observer reliability for consistency in placing the leg during the radiograph procedure and quantification of the various measures within a radiograph, 2) the relationship between the various measurements of anatomical bone properties and sex, bird mass, and gait score, and 3) the relationship between each measurement and leg symmetry. Our anatomical bone measures were found to be reliable (intra-rater and test-retest reliabilities < 0.75) within radiograph for all measures and 8 of the 10 measures across radiographs. Several measures of bone properties in the tibia correlated to difficulty walking as measured by gait score (P < 0.05), indicating greater angulations with increasing lameness. Of the measures that manifested a gait score × bird mass interaction, heavier birds appeared to exhibit less angulation with increasing difficulty walking with lighter birds the opposite. These interactions suggest possibilities for influencing effects of activity or feed intake on bone mineralization with the bone angulation observed. Our efforts agree with that of others and indicate that angulation of the tibia may be related to lameness, though subsequent efforts involving comprehensive measures of bird activity, growth rates, and internal bone structure will be needed if the validity of the measures are to be accepted.

An Ensemble Kalman Filter multi-tracer assimilation: Determining uncertain ocean model parameters for improved climate-carbon cycle projections

An Ensemble Kalman Filter is applied to assimilate observed tracer fields in various combinations in the Bern3D ocean model. Each tracer combination yields a set of optimal transport parameter values that are used in projections with prescribed CO2 stabilization pathways. The assimilation of temperature and salinity fields yields a too vigorous ventilation of the thermocline and the deep ocean, whereas the inclusion of CFC-11 and radiocarbon improves the representation of physical and biogeochemical tracers and of ventilation time scales. Projected peak uptake rates and cumulative uptake of CO2 by the ocean are around 20% lower for the parameters determined with CFC-11 and radiocarbon as additional target compared to those with salinity and temperature only. Higher surface temperature changes are simulated in the Greenland–Norwegian–Iceland Sea and in the Southern Ocean when CFC-11 is included in the Ensemble Kalman model tuning. These findings highlights the importance of ocean transport calibration for the design of near-term and long-term CO2 emission mitigation strategies and for climate projections.

Oxygen and indicators of stress for marine life in multi-model global warming projections

Decadal-to-century scale trends for a range of marine environmental variables in the upper mesopelagic layer (UML, 100–600 m) are investigated using results from seven Earth System Models forced by a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. The models as a class represent the observation-based distribution of oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2), albeit major mismatches between observation-based and simulated values remain for individual models. By year 2100 all models project an increase in SST between 2 °C and 3 °C, and a decrease in the pH and in the saturation state of water with respect to calcium carbonate minerals in the UML. A decrease in the total ocean inventory of dissolved oxygen by 2% to 4% is projected by the range of models. Projected O2 changes in the UML show a complex pattern with both increasing and decreasing trends reflecting the subtle balance of different competing factors such as circulation, production, remineralization, and temperature changes. Projected changes in the total volume of hypoxic and suboxic waters remain relatively small in all models. A widespread increase of CO2 in the UML is projected. The median of the CO2 distribution between 100 and 600m shifts from 0.1–0.2 mol m−3 in year 1990 to 0.2–0.4 mol m−3 in year 2100, primarily as a result of the invasion of anthropogenic carbon from the atmosphere. The co-occurrence of changes in a range of environmental variables indicates the need to further investigate their synergistic impacts on marine ecosystems and Earth System feedbacks.

On restricted families of projections in ℝ3

We study projections onto non-degenerate one-dimensional families of lines and planes in R 3 . Using the classical potential theoretic approach of R. Kaufman, one can show that the Hausdorff dimension of at most 12 -dimensional sets [Math Processing Error] is typically preserved under one-dimensional families of projections onto lines. We improve the result by an ε , proving that if [Math Processing Error], then the packing dimension of the projections is almost surely at least [Math Processing Error]. For projections onto planes, we obtain a similar bound, with the threshold 12 replaced by 1 . In the special case of self-similar sets [Math Processing Error] without rotations, we obtain a full Marstrand-type projection theorem for 1-parameter families of projections onto lines. The [Math Processing Error] case of the result follows from recent work of M. Hochman, but the [Math Processing Error] part is new: with this assumption, we prove that the projections have positive length almost surely.

On the reduced sensitivity of the Atlantic overturning to Greenland ice sheet melting in projections: a multi-model assessment

Large uncertainties exist concerning the impact of Greenland ice sheet melting on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the future, partly due to different sensitivity of the AMOC to freshwater input in the North Atlantic among climate models. Here we analyse five projections from different coupled ocean–atmosphere models with an additional 0.1 Sv (1 Sv = 10 6 m3/s) of freshwater released around Greenland between 2050 and 2089. We find on average a further weakening of the AMOC at 26°N of 1.1 ± 0.6 Sv representing a 27 ± 14% supplementary weakening in 2080–2089, as compared to the weakening relative to 2006–2015 due to the effect of the external forcing only. This weakening is lower than what has been found with the same ensemble of models in an identical experimen - tal set-up but under recent historical climate conditions. This lower sensitivity in a warmer world is explained by two main factors. First, a tendency of decoupling is detected between the surface and the deep ocean caused by an increased thermal stratification in the North Atlantic under the effect of global warming. This induces a shoaling of ocean deep ventilation through convection hence ventilating only intermediate levels. The second important effect concerns the so-called Canary Current freshwater leakage; a process by which additionally released fresh water in the North Atlantic leaks along the Canary Current and escapes the convection zones towards the subtropical area. This leakage is increasing in a warming climate, which is a consequence of decreasing gyres asymmetry due to changes in Ekman rumping. We suggest that these modifications are related with the northward shift of the jet stream in a warmer world. For these two reasons the AMOC is less susceptible to freshwater perturbations (near the deep water formation sides) in the North Atlantic as compared to the recent historical climate conditions. Finally, we propose a bilinear model that accounts for the two former processes to give a conceptual explanation about the decreasing AMOC sensitivity due to freshwater input. Within the limit of this bilinear model, we find that 62 ± 8% of the reduction in sensitivity is related with the changes in gyre asymmetry and freshwater leakage and 38 ± 8% is due to the reduction in deep ocean ventilation associated with the increased stratification in the North Atlantic.