Pollen percentage thresholds of Abies alba based on 13-year annual records of pollen deposition in modified Tauber traps: perspectives of application to fossil situations

Abies alba (fir), a submontane tree from Central European mountains and uplands, is of special interest for palaeoecological and palaeoclimate interpretations due to its sensitivity to air and soil humidity. Its present distribution limit in the uplands of SE Poland is still a matter of debate. In the Holocene fir expanded to Poland very late, but early fir populations are supposed to occur in the Šumava Mts (Czech Republic). The study aims: to estimate pollen thresholds for fir presence/absence in Bohemia (Czech Republic) and Poland on the basis of modified Tauber pollen traps; to use these thresholds for tracing fir presence in two pollen diagrams from Poland (Słone and Bezedna lakes) in the border zone between the Roztocze region (with fir forest stands today) and Polesie (where fir has never played an important role); and to investigate how the percentage presence/absence threshold can be used to trace the occurrence and abundance of fir trees in the Šumava Mts based on the pollen diagrams of Rokytecká slat' and Mrtvý luh. The fir pollen thresholds estimated in terms of PAR (pollen accumulation rates or pollen influx) range from 843 (grains cm− 2 year− 1) (Roztocze) to 61 (Krkonoše) and 49 (Šumava). Percentage thresholds range from 0.3% in Krkonoše where fir trees are not present within 4 km to 22% in fir-dominated woodland of the Roztocze, providing evidence of strong underrepresentation of fir in the pollen deposition. Application of these percentage thresholds to the Słone and Bezedna pollen diagrams indicates that occurrence of fir in the region is possible from 3.5 cal ky BP onwards, though the evidence is not decisive. In the Šumava, a low representation of fir pollen (1–2%) reflecting presence of scattered fir trees was detected as early as ca. 7.0 cal ky BP.

On trend estimation under monotone Gaussian subordination with long-memory: application to fossil pollen series

Fossil pollen data from stratigraphic cores are irregularly spaced in time due to non-linear age-depth relations. Moreover, their marginal distributions may vary over time. We address these features in a nonparametric regression model with errors that are monotone transformations of a latent continuous-time Gaussian process Z(T). Although Z(T) is unobserved, due to monotonicity, under suitable regularity conditions, it can be recovered facilitating further computations such as estimation of the long-memory parameter and the Hermite coefficients. The estimation of Z(T) itself involves estimation of the marginal distribution function of the regression errors. These issues are considered in proposing a plug-in algorithm for optimal bandwidth selection and construction of confidence bands for the trend function. Some high-resolution time series of pollen records from Lago di Origlio in Switzerland, which go back ca. 20,000 years are used to illustrate the methods.

Cryptic invertebrates on subtidal rocky reefs vary with microhabitat structure and protection from fishing

The deployment of flat concrete blocks on subtidal rocky reefs can replicate natural reef microhabitats and provides a means for standardized sampling of cryptic invertebrates. The shape of the cavity beneath the block is related to reef topography and may influence the invertebrate community by affecting the amount of space for cryptic fauna to colonise and influencing the effectiveness of their predator-defence mechanisms. To determine the effect of sub-block reef structure and different levels of external predators on cryptic molluscs and echinoderms, I deployed concrete blocks at locations inside and outside the Maria Island marine reserve in eastern Tasmania, Australia. Relationships between sub-block reef structure and the cryptic invertebrate assemblage were evident between locations, whereas only a small but significant proportion of variation of assemblages between blocks within location was explained by reef surface area. No clear association with external predation pressure was evident in multivariate analyses of variation in assemblage structure. Juvenile abalone Haliotis rubra were not influenced by micro-habitat structure but were significantly less abundant at protected locations, the only species to exhibit such a response. This result follows a decline of emergent adult abalone in the marine reserve and raises the possibility of recruitment failure of abalone at some fully protected locations in the longer term.