Towards dynamics in flood risk assessment

As a consequence of flood impacts, communities inhabiting mountain areas are increasingly affected by considerable damage to infrastructure and property. The design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation is crucial for a sustainable development in mountain areas. The assessment of the dynamic evolution of flood risk is the pillar of any subsequent planning process that is targeted at a reduction of the expected adverse consequences of the hazard impact. Given these premises, firstly, a comprehensive method to derive flood hazard process scenarios for well-defined areas at risk is presented. Secondly, conceptualisations of a static and dynamic flood risk assessment are provided. These are based on formal schemes to compute the risk mitigation performance of devised mitigation strategies within the framework of economic cost-benefit analysis. In this context, techniques suitable to quantify the expected losses induced by the identified flood impacts are provided.

High-resolution computer simulations of stacking of weak bases using a transient pH boundary in capillary electrophoresis. 1. Concept and impact of sample ionic strength

The dynamics of focusing weak bases using a transient pH boundary was examined via high-resolution computer simulation software. Emphasis was placed on the mechanism and impact that the presence of salt, namely, NaCl, has on the ability to focus weak bases. A series of weak bases with mobilities ranging from 5 x 10(-9) to 30 x 10(-9) m2/V x s and pKa values between 3.0 and 7.5 were examined using a combination of 65.6 mM formic acid, pH 2.85, for the separation electrolyte, and 65.6 mM formic acid, pH 8.60, for the sample matrix. Simulation data show that it is possible to focus weak bases with a pKa value similar to that of the separation electrolyte, but it is restricted to weak bases having an electrophoretic mobility of 20 x 10(-9) m2/V x s or quicker. This mobility range can be extended by the addition of NaCl, with 50 mM NaCl allowing stacking of weak bases down to a mobility of 15 x 10(-9) m2/V x s and 100 mM extending the range to 10 x 10(-9) m2/V x s. The addition of NaCl does not adversely influence focusing of more mobile bases, but does prolong the existence of the transient pH boundary. This allows analytes to migrate extensively through the capillary as a single focused band around the transient pH boundary until the boundary is dissipated. This reduces the length of capillary that is available for separation and, in extreme cases, causes multiple analytes to be detected as a single highly efficient peak.

Do males matter? The role of males in population dynamics

Models of population dynamics generally neglect the presence of males. While this assumption holds under many circumstances, behavioural ecology increasingly tells us that the presence (or absence) of males may have an impact on female fitness, and hence population sizes. Here we ask the question of whether males matter to population dynamics, operationally defined as a dependency of population growth on the relative density of males. We provide simple models, and evaluate the current empirical evidence for them, that illustrate various mechanisms of such male influence: mate searching behavior, male resource use (including effects of sexual dimorphism), sexual harassment and sexual segregation. In each case, theory predicts that males can have an effect on population densities, and in some extreme cases a positive feedback between an increasingly male-biased sex ratio and the effects on female harassment may theoretically even bring about population extinction. The results of this study, and the literature reviewed, show that the males can have a substantial effect on population dynamics, particularly so when human influences result in biased sex ratios.

High-resolution computer simulation of the dynamics of isoelectric focusing: in quest of more realistic input parameters for carrier ampholytes

The impact of the systematic variation of either DeltapK(a) or mobility of 140 biprotic carrier ampholytes on the conductivity profile of a pH 3-10 gradient was studied by dynamic computer simulation. A configuration with the greatest DeltapK(a) in the pH 6-7 range and uniform mobilities produced a conductivity profile consistent with that which is experimentally observed. A similar result was observed when the neutral (pI = 7) ampholyte is assigned the lowest mobility and mobilities of the other carriers are systematically increased as their pI's recede from 7. When equal DeltapK(a) values and mobilities are assigned to all ampholytes a conductivity plateau in the pH 5-9 region is produced which does not reflect what is seen experimentally. The variation in DeltapK(a) values is considered to most accurately reflect the electrochemical parameters of commercially available mixtures of carrier ampholytes. Simulations with unequal mobilities of the cationic and anionic species of the carrier ampholytes show either cathodic (greater mobility of the cationic species) or anodic (greater mobility of the anionic species) drifts of the pH gradient. The simulated cationic drifts compare well to those observed experimentally in a capillary in which the focusing of three dyes was followed by whole column optical imaging. The cathodic drift flattens the acidic portion of the gradient and steepens the basic part. This phenomenon is an additional argument against the notion that focused zones of carrier ampholytes have no electrophoretic flux.

The role of upper-level dynamics and surface processes for the Pakistan flood of July 2010

In July and August 2010 floods of unprecedented impact afflicted Pakistan. The floods resulted from a series of intense multi-day precipitation events in July and early August. At the same time a series of blocking anticyclones dominated the upper-level flow over western Russia and breaking waves i.e. equatorward extrusions of stratospheric high potential vorticity (PV) air formed along the downstream flank of the blocks. Previous studies suggested that these extratropical upper-level breaking waves were crucial for instigating the precipitation events in Pakistan. Here a detailed analysis is provided of the extratropical forcing of the precipitation. Piecewise PV inversion is used to quantify the extratropical upper-level forcing associated with the wave breaking and trajectories are calculated to study the pathways and source regions of the moisture that precipitated over Pakistan. Limited-area model simulations are carried out to complement the Lagrangian analysis. The precipitation events over Pakistan resulted from a combination of favourable boundary conditions with strong extratropical and monsoonal forcing factors. Above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean led to an elevated lower-tropospheric moisture content. Surface monsoonal depressions ensured the transport of moist air from the ocean towards northeastern Pakistan. Along this pathway the air parcel humidity increased substantially (60–90% of precipitated moisture) via evapotranspiration from the land surface. Extratropical breaking waves influenced the surface wind field substantially by enhancing the wind component directed towards the mountains which reinforced the precipitation.

Emotional contagion in team sports and its impact on individual performance – an experimental study

In sport psychology research about emotional contagion in sport teams has been scarce (Reicherts & Horn, 2008). Emotional contagion is a process leading to a specific emotional state in an individual caused by the perception of another individual’s emotional expression (Hatfield, Cacioppo & Rapson, 1994). Apitzsch (2009) described emotional contagion as one reason for collapsing sport teams. The present study examined the occurrence of emotional contagion in dyads during a basketball task and the impact of a socially induced emotional state on performance. An experiment with between-subjects design was conducted. Participants (N=81, ♀=38, M=21.33 years, SD=1.45) were randomly assigned to one of two experimental conditions, by joining a confederate to compose a same gender, ad hoc team. The team was instructed to perform a basketball task as quickly as possible. The between-factor of the experimental design was the confederate’s emotional expression (positive or negative valence). The within-factor was participants’ emotional state, measured pre- and post-experimentally using PANAS (Krohne, Egloff, Kohlmann & Tausch, 1996). The basketball task was video-taped and the number of frames participants needed to complete the task was used to determine the individual performance. The confederate’s emotional expression was appraised in a significantly different manner across both experimental conditions by participants and video raters (MC). Mixed between-within subjects ANOVAs were conducted to examine the impact of the two conditions on participants’ scores on the PANAS subscales across two time periods (pre- and post-experimental). No significant interaction effects but substantial main effects for time were found on both PANAS subscales. Both groups showed an increase in positive and a reduction in negative PANAS scores across these two time periods. Nevertheless, video raters assessment of the emotional states expressed by participants was significantly different between the positive (M=3.23, SD=0.45) and negative condition (M=2.39, SD=0.53; t=7.64, p<.001, eta squared=.43). An independent-samples t-test indicated no difference in performance between conditions. Furthermore, no significant correlation between the extent of positive or negative emotional contagion and the number of frames was observed. The basketball task lead to an improvement of the emotional state of participants, independently of the condition. Even though participants PANAS scores indicated a tendency to emotional contagion, it was not statistically significant. This could be explained by the low task duration of approximately three minutes. Moreover, the performance of participants was unaffected by the experimental condition or the extent of positive or negative emotional contagion. Apitzsch, E. (2009). A case study of a collapsing handball team. In S. Jern & J. Näslund (Eds.), Dynamics within and outside the lab. Proceedings from The 6th Nordic Conference on Group and Social Psychology, May 2008, Lund, pp. 35-52. Hatfield, E., Cacioppo, J. T. & Rapson, R. L. (1994). Emotional contagion. Cambridge: University Press. Krohne, H. W., Egloff, B., Kohlmann, C.-W. & Tausch, A. (1996). Untersuchungen mit einer deutschen Version der „Positive und Negative Affect Schedule“ (PANAS). Diagnostica, 42 (2), 139-156. Reicherts, M. & Horn, A. B. (2008). Emotionen im Sport. In W. Schlicht & B. Strauss (Eds.), Enzyklopädie der Psychologie. Grundlagen der Sportpsychologie (Bd. 1) (S. 563-633). Göttingen: Hogrefe.

Envelope protein dynamics in paramyxovirus entry.

Paramyxoviruses include major pathogens with significant global health and economic impact. This large family of enveloped RNA viruses infects cells by employing two surface glycoproteins that tightly cooperate to fuse their lipid envelopes with the target cell plasma membrane, an attachment and a fusion (F) protein. Membrane fusion is believed to depend on receptor-induced conformational changes within the attachment protein that lead to the activation and subsequent refolding of F. While structural and mechanistic studies have considerably advanced our insight into paramyxovirus cell adhesion and the structural basis of F refolding, how precisely the attachment protein links receptor engagement to F triggering remained poorly understood. Recent reports based on work with several paramyxovirus family members have transformed our understanding of the triggering mechanism of the membrane fusion machinery. Here, we review these recent findings, which (i) offer a broader mechanistic understanding of the paramyxovirus cell entry system, (ii) illuminate key similarities and differences between entry strategies of different paramyxovirus family members, and (iii) suggest new strategies for the development of novel therapeutics.

Pelagic molybdenum concentration anomalies and the impact of sediment resuspension on the molybdenum budget in two tidal systems of the North Sea

The seasonal dynamics of molybdenum (Mo) were studied in the water column of two tidal basins of the German Wadden Sea (Sylt-Rømø and Spiekeroog) between 2007 and 2011. In contrast to its conservative behaviour in the open ocean, both, losses of more than 50% of the usual concentration level of Mo in seawater and enrichments up to 20% were observed repeatedly in the water column of the study areas. During early summer, Mo removal by adsorption on algae-derived organic matter (e.g. after Phaeocystis blooms) is postulated to be a possible mechanism. Mo bound to organic aggregates is likely transferred to the surface sediment where microbial decomposition enriches Mo in the pore water. First δ98/95Mo data of the study area disclose residual Mo in the open water column being isotopically heavier than MOMo (Mean Ocean Molybdenum) during a negative Mo concentration anomaly, whereas suspended particulate matter shows distinctly lighter values. Based on field observations a Mo isotope enrichment factor of ε = −0.3‰ has been determined which was used to argue against sorption on metal oxide surfaces. It is suggested here that isotope fractionation is caused by biological activity and association to organic matter. Pelagic Mo concentration anomalies exceeding the theoretical salinity-based concentration level, on the other hand, cannot be explained by replenishment via North Sea waters alone and require a supply of excess Mo. Laboratory experiments with natural anoxic tidal flat sediments and modelled sediment displacement during storm events suggest fast and effective Mo release during the resuspension of anoxic sediments in oxic seawater as an important process for a recycling of sedimentary sulphide bound Mo into the water column.

Holocene climate, fire and vegetation dynamics at the treeline in the Northwestern Swiss Alps

Treelines are expected to rise to higher elevations with climate warming; the rate and extent however are still largely unknown. Here we present the first multi-proxy palaeoecological study from the treeline in the Northwestern Swiss Alps that covers the entire Holocene. We reconstructed climate, fire and vegetation dynamics at Iffigsee, an alpine lake at 2,065 m a.s.l., by using seismic sedimentary surveys, loss on ignition, visible spectrum reflectance spectroscopy, pollen, spore, macrofossil and charcoal analyses. Afforestation with Larix decidua and tree Betula (probably B. pendula) started at ~9,800 cal. b.p., more than 1,000 years later than at similar elevations in the Central and Southern Alps, indicating cooler temperatures and/or a high seasonality. Highest biomass production and forest position of ~2,100–2,300 m a.s.l. are inferred during the Holocene Thermal Maximum from 7,000 to 5,000 cal. b.p. With the onset of pastoralism and transhumance at 6,800–6,500 cal. b.p., human impact became an important factor in the vegetation dynamics at Iffigsee. This early evidence of pastoralism is documented by the presence of grazing indicators (pollen, spores), as well as a wealth of archaeological finds at the nearby mountain pass of Schnidejoch. Human and fire impact during the Neolithic and Bronze Ages led to the establishment of pastures and facilitated the expansion of Picea abies and Alnus viridis. We expect that in mountain areas with land abandonment, the treeline will react quickly to future climate warming by shifting to higher elevations, causing drastic changes in species distribution and composition as well as severe biodiversity losses.

Assessing traditional knowledge on forest uses to understand forest ecosystem dynamics

Forest ecosystems worldwide are heavily influenced by human activities. Information on these human activities are key for understanding ecosystem dynamics, especially as some of these human activities have long-term consequences, i.e. legacy effects. We assessed the diversity of forest uses across the Swiss Alps and the respective traditional forest-related knowledge (TFRK) by conducting 56 oral history interviews in five regions. As TFRK tends to be underrepresented in written records, oral history proves to be a very valuable approach. We classified the information gathered in 61 specific forest use practices, characterized by activity, product and use, in order to gain a comprehensive picture of the regional variability but also cross-regional ubiquity of certain forest uses. Based on these results we are able to name the ecologically most relevant forest uses which were most likely, or potentially occurring in Central European forests. We suggest a simple, systematic historical assessment of these relevant forest uses to be applied in all studies on forest ecosystems. This procedure will enable scientists to better evaluate to what degree human activities had an impact on forest ecosystem dynamics in their study area.

Does culture really matter in sports participation? The impact of socio-cultural factors on sports behaviour in Switzerland

The physical activity of the Swiss population differs considerably depending on the linguistic region. German speakers are more often physically active than people living in the French or Italian-speaking part of Switzerland (Stamm & Lamprecht, 2011). This study analyses how socio-cultural factors correlate with sports participation for adolescents and young adults. In order to analyse this research question, Bourdieu’s concept of habitus (1984) has been adapted and used as a theoretical background. This sport-related concept of habitus considers culturally determined values, the attribution of meaning and patterns of action such as the understanding of sports, the importance of sports, body, health or leisure. On this basis, the sport-related habitus and the practical relevance of sports participation has been empirically reconstructed for adolescents and young adults aged 15 to 25 through a qualitative study including guideline-based interviews with German (n=6) and French (n=4) speaking adolescents and young adults, as well as a quantitative survey in a German (n=106) and a French (n=99) speaking commune of Switzerland. Initial findings reveal that young German speakers associate sports with self-discipline (χ²(1, N=205)= 8.223, p<.005, V=.200) and fitness (χ²(1, N=205)= 21.989, p<.005, V=.328) whereas young French speakers are more likely to relate health (χ²(1, N=205)= 9.455, p<.005, V=.215), effort and perspiration (χ²(1, N=205)= 18.835, p<.005, V=.303) to sports. Similarly, the understanding of body and health as well as the attitude towards leisure differs between the German and French speaking parts of Switzerland. This study illustrates that the concept of sports habitus is culturally shaped and therefore may be fruitful in further analyses. Bourdieu, P. (1984). Distinction. A Social Critique of the Judgement of Taste. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Stamm, H. & Lamprecht, M. (2008). Swiss sports participation in an international perspective. European Journal for Sport and Society, 8 (1+2), 15-29.

A model-data comparison of Holocene timberline changes in the Swiss Alps reveals past and future drivers of mountain forest dynamics

Mountain vegetation is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift upwards with climate change. Dynamic vegetation models are often used to assess the impact of climate on vegetation and model output can be compared with paleobotanical data as a reality check. Recent paleoecological studies have revealed regional variation in the upward shift of timberlines in the Northern and Central European Alps in response to rapid warming at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition ca. 11700years ago, probably caused by a climatic gradient across the Alps. This contrasts with previous studies that successfully simulated the early Holocene afforestation in the (warmer) Central Alps with a chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction from the (colder) Northern Alps. We use LandClim, a dynamic landscape vegetation model to simulate mountain forests under different temperature, soil and precipitation scenarios around Iffigsee (2065m a.s.l.) a lake in the Northwestern Swiss Alps, and compare the model output with the paleobotanical records. The model clearly overestimates the upward shift of timberline in a climate scenario that applies chironomid-inferred July-temperature anomalies to all months. However, forest establishment at 9800 cal. BP at Iffigsee is successfully simulated with lower moisture availability and monthly temperatures corrected for stronger seasonality during the early Holocene. The model-data comparison reveals a contraction in the realized niche of Abies alba due to the prominent role of anthropogenic disturbance after ca. 5000 cal. BP, which has important implications for species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on equilibrium with climate and niche stability. Under future climate projections, LandClim indicates a rapid upward shift of mountain vegetation belts by ca. 500m and treeline positions of ca. 2500m a.s.l. by the end of this century. Resulting biodiversity losses in the alpine vegetation belt might be mitigated with low-impact pastoralism to preserve species-rich alpine meadows.

The impact of structural conditions in communes on sports behaviour of adolescents and young adults in Switzerland

Young peoples’ sport activity in Switzerland differs considerably depending on the linguistic region (Lamprecht, Fischer, & Stamm, 2008). This appears to be based on cultural as well as on structural differences. The question then arises how differing structural conditions in communes (e.g. sport facilities, significance of the municipal promotion of sport) across different linguistic regions of Switzerland cause variation in sport behaviour. Based on the theory of social action (Coleman, 1990), it is assumed that individual behaviour is not only determined by individual but also by structural and socio-cultural factors in which a person is socially embedded. In two case studies, multilevel data was gathered analysing possible influences of structural factors on sports behaviour. Using an online survey, 15 to 25 year old inhabitants (N = 205) living in a German and French speaking commune were questioned about their sports participation in and outside of their commune, as well as their perception of sport-related structural characteristics in their commune. To collect information about communes’ sport facilities, the sport providers (N = 23) were interviewed. Sport-related characteristics of the communes were also collected through two interviews with representatives of the municipal administration. As expected, sport participation is significantly lower in the French speaking commune (Chi2 (1, N = 205) = 3.84, p < .05). Adolescents and young adults living in the French speaking commune are less satisfied with the sport infrastructure (F(1,135) = 9.65, p < .01) and evaluate the opportunities to be physically active in their commune significantly worse (F(1,144) = 15.33, p < .01) than their German-speaking counterparts. These first findings show the impact of structural conditions in communes on sport participation of adolescents and young people. However, it must be noted that this study is explorative and further communes would need to be examined in order to generalize the results. References Coleman, J. S. (1990). Foundations of social theory. Cambridge, MA: Belknap. Lamprecht, M., Fischer, A. & Stamm, H. (2008). Sport Schweiz 2008. Das Sportverhalten der Schweizer Bevölkerung. Magglingen: BASPO.

Assessing the impact of multiple stressors on aquatic biota: the receptor's side matters.

Aquatic ecosystems are confronted with multiple stress factors. Current approaches to assess the risk of anthropogenic stressors to aquatic ecosystems are developed for single stressors and determine stressor effects primarily as a function of stressor properties. The cumulative impact of several stressors, however, may differ markedly from the impact of the single stressors and can result in nonlinear effects and ecological surprises. To meet the challenge of diagnosing and predicting multiple stressor impacts, assessment strategies should focus on properties of the biological receptors rather than on stressor properties. This change of paradigm is required because (i) multiple stressors affect multiple biological targets at multiple organizational levels, (ii) biological receptors differ in their sensitivities, vulnerabilities, and response dynamics to the individual stressors, and (iii) biological receptors function as networks, so that actions of stressors at disparate sites within the network can lead via indirect or cascading effects, to unexpected outcomes.

Review of recent results using computational fluid dynamics simulations in patients receiving mechanical assist devices for end-stage heart failure

Many end-stage heart failure patients are not eligible to undergo heart transplantation due to organ shortage, and even those under consideration for transplantation might suffer long waiting periods. A better understanding of the hemodynamic impact of left ventricular assist devices (LVAD) on the cardiovascular system is therefore of great interest. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations give the opportunity to study the hemodynamics in this patient population using clinical imaging data such as computed tomographic angiography. This article reviews a recent study series involving patients with pulsatile and constant-flow LVAD devices in which CFD simulations were used to qualitatively and quantitatively assess blood flow dynamics in the thoracic aorta, demonstrating its potential to enhance the information available from medical imaging.