Atmospheric CO₂ response to volcanic eruptions: The role of ENSO, season, and variability

Tropical explosive volcanism is one of the most important natural factors that significantly impact the climate system and the carbon cycle on annual to multi-decadal time scales. The three largest explosive eruptions in the last 50�years�Agung, El Chichón, and Pinatubo�occurred in spring/summer in conjunction with El Niño events and left distinct negative signals in the observational temperature and CO2 records. However, confounding factors such as seasonal variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may obscure the forcing-response relationship. We determine for the first time the extent to which initial conditions, i.e., season and phase of the ENSO, and internal variability influence the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to volcanic forcing and how this affects estimates of the terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks. Ensemble simulations with the Earth System Model (Climate System Model 1.4-carbon) predict that the atmospheric CO2 response is �60 larger when a volcanic eruption occurs during El Niño and in winter than during La Niña conditions. Our simulations suggest that the Pinatubo eruption contributed 11�±�6 to the 25�Pg terrestrial carbon sink inferred over the decade 1990�1999 and �2�±�1 to the 22�Pg oceanic carbon sink. In contrast to recent claims, trends in the airborne fraction of anthropogenic carbon cannot be detected when accounting for the decadal-scale influence of explosive volcanism and related uncertainties. Our results highlight the importance of considering the role of natural variability in the carbon cycle for interpretation of observations and for data-model intercomparison.

Allowable carbon emissions lowered by multiple climate targets

Climate targets are designed to inform policies that would limit the magnitude and impacts of climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances. The target that is currently recognized by most world governments1 places a limit of two degrees Celsius on the global mean warming since preindustrial times. This would require large sustained reductions in carbon dioxide emissions during the twenty-first century and beyond2, 3, 4. Such a global temperature target, however, is not sufficient to control many other quantities, such as transient sea level rise5, ocean acidification6, 7 and net primary production on land8, 9. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) in an observation-informed Bayesian approach, we show that allowable carbon emissions are substantially reduced when multiple climate targets are set. We take into account uncertainties in physical and carbon cycle model parameters, radiative efficiencies10, climate sensitivity11 and carbon cycle feedbacks12, 13 along with a large set of observational constraints. Within this framework, we explore a broad range of economically feasible greenhouse gas scenarios from the integrated assessment community14, 15, 16, 17 to determine the likelihood of meeting a combination of specific global and regional targets under various assumptions. For any given likelihood of meeting a set of such targets, the allowable cumulative emissions are greatly reduced from those inferred from the temperature target alone. Therefore, temperature targets alone are unable to comprehensively limit the risks from anthropogenic emissions.

Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction during the last millennium using multiple annual proxies

Previous studies have either exclusively used annual tree-ring data or have combined tree-ring series with other, lower temporal resolution proxy series. Both approaches can lead to significant uncertainties, as tree-rings may underestimate the amplitude of past temperature variations, and the validity of non-annual records cannot be clearly assessed. In this study, we assembled 45 published Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature proxy records covering the past millennium, each of which satisfied 3 essential criteria: the series must be of annual resolution, span at least a thousand years, and represent an explicit temperature signal. Suitable climate archives included ice cores, varved lake sediments, tree-rings and speleothems. We reconstructed the average annual land temperature series for the NH over the last millennium by applying 3 different reconstruction techniques: (1) principal components (PC) plus second-order autoregressive model (AR2), (2) composite plus scale (CPS) and (3) regularized errors-in-variables approach (EIV). Our reconstruction is in excellent agreement with 6 climate model simulations (including the first 5 models derived from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and an earth system model of intermediate complexity (LOVECLIM), showing similar temperatures at multi-decadal timescales; however, all simulations appear to underestimate the temperature during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). A comparison with other NH reconstructions shows that our results are consistent with earlier studies. These results indicate that well-validated annual proxy series should be used to minimize proxy-based artifacts, and that these proxy series contain sufficient information to reconstruct the low-frequency climate variability over the past millennium.

Ocean (De)oxygenation Across the Last Deglaciation: Insights for the Future

Anthropogenic warming is expected to drive oxygen out of the ocean as the water temperature rises and the rate of exchange between subsurface waters and the atmosphere slows due to enhanced upper ocean density stratification. Observations from recent decades are tantalizingly consistent with this prediction, though these changes remain subtle in the face of natural variability. Earth system model projections unanimously predict a long-term decrease in the global ocean oxygen inventory, but show regional discrepancies, particularly in the most oxygen-depleted waters, owing to the complex interplay between oxygen supply pathways and oxygen consumption. The geological record provides an orthogonal perspective, showing how the oceanic oxygen content varied in response to prior episodes of climate change. These past changes were much slower than the current, anthropogenic change, but can help to appraise sensitivities, and point toward potentially dominant mechanisms of change. Consistent with the model projections, marine sediments recorded an overall expansion of low-oxygen waters in the upper ocean as it warmed at the end of the last ice age. This expansion was not linearly related with temperature, though, but reached a deoxygenation extreme midway through the warming. Meanwhile, the deep ocean became better oxygenated, opposite the general expectation. These observations require that significant changes in apparent oxygen utilization occurred, suggesting that they will also be important in the future.

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

With the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. However, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, pH, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. Among these, the net primary productivity (NPP) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective. Indeed, in regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N–30°S), NPP exhibits natural fluctuations at interannual to decadal timescales that have large impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Here, we investigate predictions of NPP variations over the last decades (i.e., from 1997 to 2011) with an Earth system model within the tropical Pacific. Results suggest a predictive skill for NPP of 3 y, which is higher than that of sea surface temperature (1 y). We attribute the higher predictability of NPP to the poleward advection of nutrient anomalies (nitrate and iron), which sustain fluctuations in phytoplankton productivity over several years. These results open previously unidentified perspectives to the development of science-based management approaches to marine resources relying on integrated physical-biogeochemical forecasting systems.

Synoptic drivers of 400 years of summer temperature and precipitation variability on Mt. Olympus, Greece

The Mediterranean region has been identified as a global warming hotspot, where future climate impacts are expected to have significant consequences on societal and ecosystem well-being. To put ongoing trends of summer climate into the context of past natural variability, we reconstructed climate from maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements of Pinus heldreichii (1521–2010) and latewood width (LWW) of Pinus nigra (1617–2010) on Mt. Olympus, Greece. Previous research in the northeastern Mediterranean has primarily focused on inter-annual variability, omitting any low-frequency trends. The present study utilizes methods capable of retaining climatically driven long-term behavior of tree growth. The LWW chronology corresponds closely to early summer moisture variability (May–July, r = 0.65, p < 0.001, 1950–2010), whereas the MXD-chronology relates mainly to late summer warmth (July–September, r = 0.64, p < 0.001; 1899–2010). The chronologies show opposing patterns of decadal variability over the twentieth century (r = −0.68, p < 0.001) and confirm the importance of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (sNAO) for summer climate in the northeastern Mediterranean, with positive sNAO phases inducing cold anomalies and enhanced cloudiness and precipitation. The combined reconstructions document the late twentieth—early twenty-first century warming and drying trend, but indicate generally drier early summer and cooler late summer conditions in the period ~1700–1900 CE. Our findings suggest a potential decoupling between twentieth century atmospheric circulation patterns and pre-industrial climate variability. Furthermore, the range of natural climate variability stretches beyond summer moisture availabilityobserved in recent decades and thus lends credibility to the significant drying trends projected for this region in current Earth System Model simulations.

Impact of a Reduced Arctic Sea Ice Cover on Ocean and Atmospheric Properties

The Arctic sea ice cover declined over the last few decades and reached a record minimum in 2007, with a slight recovery thereafter. Inspired by this the authors investigate the response of atmospheric and oceanic properties to a 1-yr period of reduced sea ice cover. Two ensembles of equilibrium and transient simulations are produced with the Community Climate System Model. A sea ice change is induced through an albedo change of 1 yr. The sea ice area and thickness recover in both ensembles after 3 and 5 yr, respectively. The sea ice anomaly leads to changes in ocean temperature and salinity to a depth of about 200 m in the Arctic Basin. Further, the salinity and temperature changes in the surface layer trigger a “Great Salinity Anomaly” in the North Atlantic that takes roughly 8 yr to travel across the North Atlantic back to high latitudes. In the atmosphere the changes induced by the sea ice anomaly do not last as long as in the ocean. The response in the transient and equilibrium simulations, while similar overall, differs in specific regional and temporal details. The surface air temperature increases over the Arctic Basin and the anomaly extends through the whole atmospheric column, changing the geopotential height fields and thus the storm tracks. The patterns of warming and thus the position of the geopotential height changes vary in the two ensembles. While the equilibrium simulation shifts the storm tracks to the south over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe, the transient simulation shifts the storm tracks south over the western North Atlantic and North America. The authors propose that the overall reduction in sea ice cover is important for producing ocean anomalies; however, for atmospheric anomalies the regional location of the sea ice anomalies is more important. While observed trends in Arctic sea ice are large and exceed those simulated by comprehensive climate models, there is little evidence based on this particular model that the seasonal loss of sea ice (e.g., as occurred in 2007) would constitute a threshold after which the Arctic would exhibit nonlinear, irreversible, or strongly accelerated sea ice loss. Caution should be exerted when extrapolating short-term trends to future sea ice behavior.

First thoughts on surface tonal patterns in Amawaka, a Panoan language of Peru and Brazil

Amawaka ([ɑmɨ̃ˈwɐkɑ]) is a highly endangered and underdocumented tonal language of the Headwaters (Fleck 2011) subgroup of the Panoan family in the Southwest Amazon Basin, spoken by approximately 200 people. Undocumented phonetic and phonological phenomena of Amawaka include its tonal structure, both in terms of surface realizations and the patterns underlying these realizations. Original audiovisual data from the author’s fieldwork in various Amawaka communities at the Peru-Brazil border will illuminate the as-yet obscure tonal systematicity of the language. Unlike other elements, monosyllabic bimoraic phonological nominal words with long vowels display variation in their surface realization. All the words with the open back unrounded /ɑ/, like /ˈkɑ̀:/ (patarashca, a traditional Amazonian dish), /ˈnɑ̀:/ “mestizo” etc. [with the exception of /ˈtɑ:/ “reed”, which surfaces with either a H or L tone] bear a low tone in isolation. This realization contrasts with all the encountered nominal monosyllables with vowels from the close and close-mid front and central spectrum /i, ɘ, ɨ, ɨ̃/, which clearly surface as high tone words in isolation, for example /ˈmɨ̃́:/ (a clay-lick for animals), /ˈwí:/ “Anopheles, spp. mosquito”. Monosyllables with close-mid back rounded /o/ have a less restrictive pitch that varies among speakers from low to high realizations, and sometimes even across the speech tokens from an individual speaker, e.g. /wó:/ or /wō:/ “hair”, /ɧō:/ or /ɧò:/ (a type of tarantula). Phrasal tonal phonology is more complex, when these three kinds of monosyllables appear in larger noun phrases. Some retain the same surface tones as their isolation form, while others seem to vary freely in their surface realization, e.g. /ˈtɘ́:.nɑ̀:/ or /ˈtɘ́:.nɑ́:/ ‘one mestizo’. Yet other monosyllables, e.g. /mɑ̀:/, exhibit a falling tone when preceded by a H syllable, suggesting probably latent tone sandhi phenomena, e.g /ˈtɘ́:.mɑ̂:/ (one clay-lick for parrots). In disyllabic, trisyllabic and quadrisyllabic nouns, tonal and stress patterns generally seem to be more consistent and tend to be retained both in isolation and in larger intonational phrases. Disyllabic nouns, for instance, surface as L-H or L-L when a glottal stop is in coda position. The association of L with a glottal stop is a feature that occurs in other Panoan languages as well, like Capanahua (Loos 1969), and more generally it is an areal feature, found in other parts of Amazonia (Hyman 2010). So, tone has significant interactions with the glottal stop and glottalization, which generally co-occurs with L. The data above suggest that the underlying tonal system of Amawaka is much more complex than the privative one-tone analysis (/H/ vs. Ø, i.e. lack of tone) that was proposed by Russell and Russell (1959). Evidence from field data suggests either an equipollent (Hyman 2010) two-tone opposition between /H/ and /L/, or a hybrid system, with both equipollent and privative features; that is, /H/ vs. /L/ vs. either Ø or /M/. This first systematic description of Amawaka tone, in conjunction with ongoing research, is poised to address broader questions concerning interrelationships between surface/underlying tone and other suprasegmental features, such as nasality, metrical stress, and intonation. References Fleck, David W. 2011. Panoan languages and linguistics. In Javier Ruedas and David W. Fleck (Eds.), Panoan Histories and Interethnic Identities, To appear. Hyman, Larry. 2010. Amazonia and the typology of tone systems. Presented at the conference Amazonicas III: The structure of the Amazonian languages. Bogotá. Loos, Eugene E. 1969. The phonology of Capanahua and its grammatical basis. Norman: SIL and U. Oklahoma. Russell, Robert & Dolores. 1959. Syntactotonemics in Amahuaca (Pano). Série Lingüistica Especial, 128-167. Publicaçoes do Museu Nacional, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.

Towards an analysis of tonal patterns in Amawaka, a Panoan language of Peru and Brazil

Amawaka ([ɑmɨ̃ˈwɐkɑ]) is a highly endangered and underdocumented tonal language of the Headwaters (Fleck 2011) subgroup of the Panoan family in the Southwest Amazon Basin, spoken by approximately 200 people. Undocumented phonetic and phonological phenomena of Amawaka include its tonal structure, both in terms of surface realizations and the patterns underlying these realizations. Original audiovisual data from the author’s fieldwork in various Amawaka communities at the Peru-Brazil border will illuminate the as-yet obscure tonal systematicity of the language. Unlike other elements, monosyllabic bimoraic phonological nominal words with long vowels display variation in their surface realization. All the words with the open back unrounded /ɑ/, like /ˈkɑ̀:/ (a traditional Amazonian dish), /ˈnɑ̀:/ “mestizo” etc. [with the exception of /ˈtɑ:/ “reed”, which surfaces with either a H or L tone] bear a low tone in isolation. This realization contrasts with all the encountered nominal monosyllables with vowels from the close and close-mid front and central spectrum /i, ɘ, ɨ, ɨ̃/, which clearly surface as high tone words in isolation, for example /ˈmɨ̃́:/ (a clay-lick for animals), /ˈwí:/ “Anopheles, spp. mosquito”. Monosyllables with close-mid back rounded /o/ have a less restrictive pitch that varies among speakers from low to high realizations, and sometimes even across the speech tokens from an individual speaker, e.g. /wó:/ or /wō:/ “hair”, /ɧō:/ or /ɧò:/ (a type of tarantula). Phrasal tonal phonology is more complex, when these three kinds of monosyllables appear in larger noun phrases. Some retain the same surface tones as their isolation form, while others seem to vary freely in their surface realization, e.g. /ˈtɘ́:.nɑ̀:/ or /ˈtɘ́:.nɑ́:/ ‘one mestizo’. Yet other monosyllables, e.g. /mɑ̀:/, exhibit a falling tone when preceded by a H syllable, suggesting probably latent tone sandhi phenomena, e.g /ˈtɘ́:.mɑ̂:/ (one clay-lick for parrots). In disyllabic, trisyllabic and quadrisyllabic nouns, tonal and stress patterns generally seem to be more consistent and tend to be retained both in isolation and in larger intonational phrases. Disyllabic nouns, for instance, surface as L-H or L-L when a glottal stop is in coda position. The association of L with a glottal stop is a feature that occurs in other Panoan languages as well, like Capanahua (Loos 1969), and more generally it is an areal feature, found in other parts of Amazonia (Hyman 2010). So, tone has significant interactions with the glottal stop and glottalization, which generally co-occurs with L. The data above suggest that the underlying tonal system of Amawaka is much more complex than the privative one-tone analysis (/H/ vs. Ø, i.e. lack of tone) that was proposed by Russell and Russell (1959). Evidence from field data suggests either an equipollent (Hyman 2010) two-tone opposition between /H/ and /L/, or a hybrid system, with both equipollent and privative features; that is, /H/ vs. /L/ vs. either Ø or /M/. This first systematic description of Amawaka tone, in conjunction with ongoing research, is poised to address broader questions concerning interrelationships between surface/underlying tone and other suprasegmental features, such as nasality, metrical stress, and intonation. References Fleck, David W. 2011. Panoan languages and linguistics. In Javier Ruedas and David W. Fleck (Eds.), Panoan Histories and Interethnic Identities, To appear. Hyman, Larry. 2010. Amazonia and the typology of tone systems. Presented at the conference Amazonicas III: The structure of the Amazonian languages. Bogotá. Loos, Eugene E. 1969. The phonology of Capanahua and its grammatical basis. Norman: SIL and U. Oklahoma. Russell, Robert & Dolores. 1959. Syntactotonemics in Amahuaca (Pano). Série Lingüistica Especial, 128-167. Publicaçoes do Museu Nacional, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.

Quantifying differences in land use emission estimates implied by definition discrepancies

The quantification of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land use and land use change (eLUC) is essential to understand the drivers of the atmospheric CO2 increase and to inform climate change mitigation policy. Reported values in synthesis reports are commonly derived from different approaches (observation-driven bookkeeping and process-modelling) but recent work has emphasized that inconsistencies between methods may imply substantial differences in eLUC estimates. However, a consistent quantification is lacking and no concise modelling protocol for the separation of primary and secondary components of eLUC has been established. Here, we review differences of eLUC quantification methods and apply an Earth System Model (ESM) of Intermediate Complexity to quantify them. We find that the magnitude of effects due to merely conceptual differences between ESM and offline vegetation model-based quantifications is ~ 20 % for today. Under a future business-as-usual scenario, differences tend to increase further due to slowing land conversion rates and an increasing impact of altered environmental conditions on land-atmosphere fluxes. We establish how coupled Earth System Models may be applied to separate secondary component fluxes of eLUC arising from the replacement of potential C sinks/sources and the land use feedback and show that secondary fluxes derived from offline vegetation models are conceptually and quantitatively not identical to either, nor their sum. Therefore, we argue that synthesis studies should resort to the "least common denominator" of different methods, following the bookkeeping approach where only primary land use emissions are quantified under the assumption of constant environmental boundary conditions.

Intensification of tropical Pacific biological productivity due to volcanic eruptions

Major volcanic eruptions generate widespread ocean cooling, which reduces upper ocean stratification. This effect has the potential to increase nutrient delivery into the euphotic zone and boost biological productivity. Using externally forced last millennium simulations of three climate/Earth System models (Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate (MIROC), Community Earth System Model (CESM), and LOch-Vecode-Ecbilt-CLio-agIsm Model (LOVECLIM)), we test the hypothesis that large volcanic eruptions intensify nutrient-driven export production. It is found that strong volcanic radiative forcing enhances the likelihood of eastern Pacific El Niño-like warming in CESM and LOVECLIM. This leads to an initial reduction of nutrients and export production in the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, this initial response reverses after about 3 years in association with La Niña cooling. The resulting delayed enhancement of biological production resembles the multiyear response in MIROC. The model simulations show that volcanic impacts on tropical Pacific dynamics and biogeochemistry persist for several years, thus providing a new source for potential multiyear ecosystem predictability.

Host insulin stimulates Echinococcus multilocularis insulin signalling pathways and larval development.

BACKGROUND The metacestode of the tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis is the causative agent of alveolar echinococcosis, a lethal zoonosis. Infections are initiated through establishment of parasite larvae within the intermediate host's liver, where high concentrations of insulin are present, followed by tumour-like growth of the metacestode in host organs. The molecular mechanisms determining the organ tropism of E. multilocularis or the influences of host hormones on parasite proliferation are poorly understood. RESULTS Using in vitro cultivation systems for parasite larvae we show that physiological concentrations (10 nM) of human insulin significantly stimulate the formation of metacestode larvae from parasite stem cells and promote asexual growth of the metacestode. Addition of human insulin to parasite larvae led to increased glucose uptake and enhanced phosphorylation of Echinococcus insulin signalling components, including an insulin receptor-like kinase, EmIR1, for which we demonstrate predominant expression in the parasite's glycogen storage cells. We also characterized a second insulin receptor family member, EmIR2, and demonstrated interaction of its ligand binding domain with human insulin in the yeast two-hybrid system. Addition of an insulin receptor inhibitor resulted in metacestode killing, prevented metacestode development from parasite stem cells, and impaired the activation of insulin signalling pathways through host insulin. CONCLUSIONS Our data indicate that host insulin acts as a stimulant for parasite development within the host liver and that E. multilocularis senses the host hormone through an evolutionarily conserved insulin signalling pathway. Hormonal host-parasite cross-communication, facilitated by the relatively close phylogenetic relationship between E. multilocularis and its mammalian hosts, thus appears to be important in the pathology of alveolar echinococcosis. This contributes to a closer understanding of organ tropism and parasite persistence in larval cestode infections. Furthermore, our data show that Echinococcus insulin signalling pathways are promising targets for the development of novel drugs.

An insulin infusion advisory system for type 1 diabetes patients based on non-linear model predictive control methods

In this paper, an Insulin Infusion Advisory System (IIAS) for Type 1 diabetes patients, which use insulin pumps for the Continuous Subcutaneous Insulin Infusion (CSII) is presented. The purpose of the system is to estimate the appropriate insulin infusion rates. The system is based on a Non-Linear Model Predictive Controller (NMPC) which uses a hybrid model. The model comprises a Compartmental Model (CM), which simulates the absorption of the glucose to the blood due to meal intakes, and a Neural Network (NN), which simulates the glucose-insulin kinetics. The NN is a Recurrent NN (RNN) trained with the Real Time Recurrent Learning (RTRL) algorithm. The output of the model consists of short term glucose predictions and provides input to the NMPC, in order for the latter to estimate the optimum insulin infusion rates. For the development and the evaluation of the IIAS, data generated from a Mathematical Model (MM) of a Type 1 diabetes patient have been used. The proposed control strategy is evaluated at multiple meal disturbances, various noise levels and additional time delays. The results indicate that the implemented IIAS is capable of handling multiple meals, which correspond to realistic meal profiles, large noise levels and time delays.

An insulin infusion advisory system based on autotuning nonlinear model-predictive control

This paper aims at the development and evaluation of a personalized insulin infusion advisory system (IIAS), able to provide real-time estimations of the appropriate insulin infusion rate for type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients using continuous glucose monitors and insulin pumps. The system is based on a nonlinear model-predictive controller (NMPC) that uses a personalized glucose-insulin metabolism model, consisting of two compartmental models and a recurrent neural network. The model takes as input patient's information regarding meal intake, glucose measurements, and insulin infusion rates, and provides glucose predictions. The predictions are fed to the NMPC, in order for the latter to estimate the optimum insulin infusion rates. An algorithm based on fuzzy logic has been developed for the on-line adaptation of the NMPC control parameters. The IIAS has been in silico evaluated using an appropriate simulation environment (UVa T1DM simulator). The IIAS was able to handle various meal profiles, fasting conditions, interpatient variability, intraday variation in physiological parameters, and errors in meal amount estimations.