50 resultados para Holt-Winters


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The Mediterranean Region has many morphologic, geographical, historical, and societal characteristics, which make its climate scientifically interesting. The concept of Mediterranean climate is characterized by mild wet winters and warm to hot, dry summers and occur on the west side of continents between about 30° and 40° latitude. However, the presence of a relatively large mass of water is unique to the actual Mediterranean region. The Mediterranean Sea is a marginal and semi-enclosed sea; it is located on the western side of a large continental area and is surrounded by Europe to the North, Africa to the South, and Asia to the East. The chapter discusses that the climate of the Mediterranean region is to a large extent forced by planetary scale patterns. The time and space behavior of the regional features associated with such large-scale forcing is complex. Orography and land–sea distribution play an important role establishing the climate at basin scale and its teleconnections with global patterns. Different levels of services of readiness to emergencies, technological, and economic resources are likely to result in very different adaptation capabilities to environmental changes and new problems. The different economic situations and demographic trends are likely to produce contrasts and conflicts in a condition of limited available resources and environmental stress.

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Clinical resistance to chemotherapy in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is associated with the expression of the multidrug resistance (MDR) proteins P-glycoprotein, encoded by the MDR1/ABCB1 gene, multidrug resistant-related protein (MRP/ABCC1), the lung resistance-related protein (LRP), or major vault protein (MVP), and the breast cancer resistance protein (BCRP/ABCG2). The clinical value of MDR1, MRP1, LRP/MVP, and BCRP messenger RNA (mRNA) expression was prospectively studied in 154 newly diagnosed AML patients >or=60 years who were treated in a multicenter, randomized phase 3 trial. Expression of MDR1 and BCRP showed a negative whereas MRP1 and LRP showed a positive correlation with high white blood cell count (respectively, p < 0.05, p < 0.001, p < 0.001 and p < 0.001). Higher BCRP mRNA was associated with secondary AML (p < 0.05). MDR1 and BCRP mRNA were highly significantly associated (p < 0.001), as were MRP1 and LRP mRNA (p < 0.001) expression. Univariate regression analyses revealed that CD34 expression, increasing MDR1 mRNA as well as MDR1/BCRP coexpression, were associated with a lower complete response (CR) rate and with worse event-free survival and overall survival. When adjusted for other prognostic actors, only CD34-related MDR1/BCRP coexpression remained significantly associated with a lower CR rate (p = 0.03), thereby identifying a clinically resistant subgroup of elderly AML patients.

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The adult mammalian cochlea lacks regenerative capacity, which is the main reason for the permanence of hearing loss. Vestibular organs, in contrast, replace a small number of lost hair cells. The reason for this difference is unknown. In this work we show isolation of sphere-forming stem cells from the early postnatal organ of Corti, vestibular sensory epithelia, the spiral ganglion, and the stria vascularis. Organ of Corti and vestibular sensory epithelial stem cells give rise to cells that express multiple hair cell markers and express functional ion channels reminiscent of nascent hair cells. Spiral ganglion stem cells display features of neural stem cells and can give rise to neurons and glial cell types. We found that the ability for sphere formation in the mouse cochlea decreases about 100-fold during the second and third postnatal weeks; this decrease is substantially faster than the reduction of stem cells in vestibular organs, which maintain their stem cell population also at older ages. Coincidentally, the relative expression of developmental and progenitor cell markers in the cochlea decreases during the first 3 postnatal weeks, which is in sharp contrast to the vestibular system, where expression of progenitor cell markers remains constant or even increases during this period. Our findings indicate that the lack of regenerative capacity in the adult mammalian cochlea is either a result of an early postnatal loss of stem cells or diminishment of stem cell features of maturing cochlear cells.

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We investigate the changes of extreme European winter (December-February) precipitation back to 1700 and show for various European regions that return periods of extremely wet and dry winters are subject to significant changes both before and after the onset of anthropogenic influences. Generally, winter precipitation has become more extreme. We also examine the spatial pattern of the changes of the extremes covering the last 300 years where data quality is sufficient. Over central and Eastern Europe dry winters occurred more frequently during the 18th and the second part of the 19th century relative to 1951–2000. Dry winters were less frequent during both the 18th and 19th century over the British Isles and the Mediterranean. Wet winters have been less abundant during the last three centuries compared to 1951–2000 except during the early 18th century in central Europe. Although winter precipitation extremes are affected by climate change, no obvious connection of these changes was found to solar, volcanic or anthropogenic forcing. However, physically meaningful interpretation with atmospheric circulation changes was possible.

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Increased levels of NO in exhaled air in association with increased NO synthetase (NOS)2 expression in bronchial epithelial are hallmark features of asthma. It has been suggested that NO contributes to asthma pathogenesis by selective down-regulation of TH1 responses. We demonstrate, however, that NO can reversibly limit in vitro expansion of both human TH1 and TH2 CD4+ T cells. Mechanistically, NO induces cGMP-mediated reversible STAT5 dephosphorylation and therefore interferes with the IL-2R activation cascade. Human bronchial epithelial cells (HBEC) up-regulate NOS2 after stimulation with IFN-gamma secreted by TH1 CD4+ T cells and release NO, which inhibits both TH1 and TH2 cell proliferation. This reversible T cell growth arrest depends on NO because T cell proliferation is completely restored after in vitro blocking of NOS2 on HBEC. HBEC thus drive the effector end of a TH1-controlled feedback loop, which protects airway mucosal tissues at the potential lesional site in asthma from overwhelming CD4+ TH2 (and potentially TH1) responses following allergen exposure. Variations in the efficiency of this feedback loop provides a plausible mechanism to explain why only a subset of atopics sensitized to ubiquitous aeroallergens progress to expression of clinically relevant levels of airways inflammation.

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On the basis of a multi-proxy approach and a strategy combining lacustrine and marine records along a north–south transect, data collected in the central Mediterranean within the framework of a collaborative project have led to reconstruction of high-resolution and well-dated palaeohydrological records and to assessment of their spatial and temporal coherency. Contrasting patterns of palaeohydrological changes have been evidenced in the central Mediterranean: south (north) of around 40° N of latitude, the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by lake-level maxima (minima), during an interval dated to ca. 10 300–4500 cal BP to the south and 9000–4500 cal BP to the north. Available data suggest that these contrasting palaeohydrological patterns operated throughout the Holocene, both on millennial and centennial scales. Regarding precipitation seasonality, maximum humidity in the central Mediterranean during the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by humid winters and dry summers north of ca. 40° N, and humid winters and summers south of ca. 40° N. This may explain an apparent conflict between palaeoclimatic records depending on the proxies used for reconstruction as well as the synchronous expansion of tree species taxa with contrasting climatic requirements. In addition, south of ca. 40° N, the first millennium of the Holocene was characterised by very dry climatic conditions not only in the eastern, but also in the central- and the western Mediterranean zones as reflected by low lake levels and delayed reforestation. These results suggest that, in addition to the influence of the Nile discharge reinforced by the African monsoon, the deposition of Sapropel 1 has been favoured (1) by an increase in winter precipitation in the northern Mediterranean borderlands, and (2) by an increase in winter and summer precipitation in the southern Mediterranean area. The climate reversal following the Holocene climate optimum appears to have been punctuated by two major climate changes around 7500 and 4500 cal BP. In the central Mediterranean, the Holocene palaeohydrological changes developed in response to a combination of orbital, ice-sheet and solar forcing factors. The maximum humidity interval in the south-central Mediterranean started ca. 10 300 cal BP, in correlation with the decline (1) of the possible blocking effects of the North Atlantic anticyclone linked to maximum insolation, and/or (2) of the influence of the remnant ice sheets and fresh water forcing in the North Atlantic Ocean. In the north-central Mediterranean, the lake-level minimum interval began only around 9000 cal BP when the Fennoscandian ice sheet disappeared and a prevailing positive NAO-(North Atlantic Oscillation) type circulation developed in the North Atlantic area. The major palaeohydrological oscillation around 4500–4000 cal BP may be a non-linear response to the gradual decrease in insolation, with additional key seasonal and interhemispheric changes. On a centennial scale, the successive climatic events which punctuated the entire Holocene in the central Mediterranean coincided with cooling events associated with deglacial outbursts in the North Atlantic area and decreases in solar activity during the interval 11 700–7000 cal BP, and to a possible combination of NAO-type circulation and solar forcing since ca. 7000 cal BP onwards. Thus, regarding the centennial-scale climatic oscillations, the Mediterranean Basin appears to have been strongly linked to the North Atlantic area and affected by solar activity over the entire Holocene. In addition to model experiments, a better understanding of forcing factors and past atmospheric circulation patterns behind the Holocene palaeohydrological changes in the Mediterranean area will require further investigation to establish additional high-resolution and well-dated records in selected locations around the Mediterranean Basin and in adjacent regions. Special attention should be paid to greater precision in the reconstruction, on millennial and centennial timescales, of changes in the latitudinal location of the limit between the northern and southern palaeohydrological Mediterranean sectors, depending on (1) the intensity and/or characteristics of climatic periods/oscillations (e.g. Holocene thermal maximum versus Neoglacial, as well as, for instance, the 8.2 ka event versus the 4 ka event or the Little Ice Age); and (2) on varying geographical conditions from the western to the eastern Mediterranean areas (longitudinal gradients). Finally, on the basis of projects using strategically located study sites, there is a need to explore possible influences of other general atmospheric circulation patterns than NAO, such as the East Atlantic–West Russian or North Sea–Caspian patterns, in explaining the apparent complexity of palaeoclimatic (palaeohydrological) Holocene records from the Mediterranean area.

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Tree populations at the rear edge of species distribution are sensitive to climate stress and drought. However, growth responses of these tree populations to those stressors may vary along climatic gradients. To analyze growth responses to climate and drought using dendrochronology in rear-edge Pinus nigra populations located along an aridity gradient. Tree-ring width chronologies were built for the twentieth century and related to monthly climatic variables, a drought index (Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index), and two atmospheric circulation patterns (North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean Oscillations). Growth was enhanced by wet and cold previous autumns and warm late winters before tree-ring formation. The influence of the previous year conditions on growth increased during the past century. Growth was significantly related to North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean Oscillations in two out of five sites. The strongest responses of growth to the drought index were observed in the most xeric sites. Dry conditions before tree-ring formation constrain growth in rear-edge P. nigra populations. The comparisons of climate-growth responses along aridity gradients allow characterizing the sensitivity of relict stands to climate warming.

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The respiratory tract is an attractive target organ for novel diagnostic and therapeutic applications with nano-sized carriers, but their immune effects and interactions with key resident antigen-presenting cells (APCs) such as dendritic cells (DCs) and alveolar macrophages (AMs) in different anatomical compartments remain poorly understood. Polystyrene particles ranging from 20 nm to 1,000 nm were instilled intranasally in BALB/c mice, and their interactions with APC populations in airways, lung parenchyma, and lung-draining lymph nodes (LDLNs) were examined after 2 and 24 hours by flow cytometry and confocal microscopy. In the main conducting airways and lung parenchyma, DC subpopulations preferentially captured 20-nm particles, compared with 1,000-nm particles that were transported to the LDLNs by migratory CD11blow DCs and that were observed in close proximity to CD3+ T cells. Generally, the uptake of particles increased the expression of CD40 and CD86 in all DC populations, independent of particle size, whereas 20-nm particles induced enhanced antigen presentation to CD4+ T cells in LDLNs in vivo. Despite measurable uptake by DCs, the majority of particles were taken up by AMs, irrespective of size. Confocal microscopy and FACS analysis showed few particles in the main conducting airways, but a homogeneous distribution of all particle sizes was evident in the lung parenchyma, mostly confined to AMs. Particulate size as a key parameter determining uptake and trafficking therefore determines the fate of inhaled particulates, and this may have important consequences in the development of novel carriers for pulmonary diagnostic or therapeutic applications.

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Conspecific aggregation of waterfowl in winter is a common example of animal flocking behaviour, yet patterns of relatedness and temporal substructure in such social groups remain poorly understood even in common species. A previous study based on mark-recapture data showed that Tufted Ducks Aythya fuligula caught on the same day were re-caught together in subsequent winters more often than expected by chance, suggesting stable assortments of ‘socially familiar’ individuals between wintering periods. The genetic relationships within these social groups were not clear. Based on 191 individuals genotyped at 10 microsatellite markers, we investigated the temporal genetic structure and patterns of relatedness among wintering Tufted Ducks at Lake Sempach, Switzerland, in two consecutive winters. We found no evidence of genetic differentiation between temporal groups within or between winters. The average levels of relatedness in temporal groups were low and not higher than expected in random assortments of individuals. However, Mantel tests performed for each sex separately revealed significant negative correlations between the pairwise relatedness coefficients and the number of days between the capture dates of pairs of wintering Tufted Duck in males and females. This pattern suggests the presence of a small number of co-migrating same-sex sibling pairs in wintering flocks of Tufted Ducks. Our findings provide one of the first genetic analyses of a common duck species outside the breeding season and contribute to the understanding of social interactions in long-distance migratory birds.

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In this chapter, we discuss the factors controlling the mechanisms and rates of hillslope failure in temperate environments with a major focus on the Swiss Alps. We frame this presentation by defining Alpine hillslopes as either strength- or transport-limited hillslopes. We organize this discussion into individual sections that outline how hillslope processes are related to (1) the mechanical strength and bedding orientation of bedrock, (2) the competition between channelized and hillslope processes, (3) hillslope–channel coupling relationships, and (4) fluvial erosion rates. We find that hillslope angles depend on bedrock strength along nonincised channels, but are not related to this parameter in inner gorges. We also find that valley flanks host deep-seated landslides where the bedrock dips parallel to the topographic slope. In the opposite case, the valley sides are dissected by a network of bedrock channels bordered by strength-limited hillslopes. In this chapter, we illustrate that a high ratio between sediment discharge on hillslopes and in channels explains the formation of smooth landscapes with low channel densities and long response times. This chapter considers the formation of strength-limited hillslopes as a consequence of an upslope-directed coupling between channels and hillslopes. The chapter also discusses that soil-mantled hillslopes occur where fluvial incision rates are less than weathering rates of bedrock, which are limited to 0.1–0.3 mm yr−1. We finally present evidence for a decreasing trend of hillslope-derived sediment discharge during the Holocene, but predict an opposite trend in the nearest future as winters are warmer and wetter.