Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

A mixed-integer linear programming approach to the optimization of event-bus schedules: a scheduling application in the tourism sector

This paper deals with “The Enchanted Journey,” which is a daily event tour booked by Bollywood-film fans. During the tour, the participants visit original sites of famous Bollywood films at various locations in Switzerland; moreover, the tour includes stops for lunch and shopping. Each day, up to five buses operate the tour. For operational reasons, however, two or more buses cannot stay at the same location simultaneously. Further operative constraints include time windows for all activities and precedence constraints between some activities. The planning problem is how to compute a feasible schedule for each bus. We implement a two-step hierarchical approach. In the first step, we minimize the total waiting time; in the second step, we minimize the total travel time of all buses. We present a basic formulation of this problem as a mixed-integer linear program. We enhance this basic formulation by symmetry-breaking constraints, which reduces the search space without loss of generality. We report on computational results obtained with the Gurobi Solver. Our numerical results show that all relevant problem instances can be solved using the basic formulation within reasonable CPU time, and that the symmetry-breaking constraints reduce that CPU time considerably.

Hierarchical self-assembly of the DNA-grafted supramolecular polymers

Conjugation of functional entities with a specific set of optical, mechanical or biological properties to DNA strands allows engineering of sophisticated DNA-containing architectures. Among various hybrid systems, DNA-grafted polymers occupy an important place in modern materials science. In this contribution we present the non-covalent synthesis and properties of DNA-grafted linear supramolecular polymers (SPs), which are assembled in a controllable manner from short chimeric DNA-pyrene oligomers. The synthetic oligomers consist of two parts: a 10 nucleotides long DNA chain and a covalently attached segment of variable number of phosphodiester-linked pyrenes. The temperature-dependent formation of DNA-grafted SPs is described by a nucleation-elongation mechanism. The high tendency of pyrenes to aggregate in water, leads to the rapid formation of SPs. The core of the assemblies consists of stacked pyrenes. They form a 1D platform, to which the DNA chains are attached. Combined spectroscopic and microscopic studies reveal that the major driving forces of the polymerization are π-stacking of pyrenes and hydrophobic interactions, and DNA pairing contributes to a lesser extent. AFM and TEM experiments demonstrate that the 1D SPs appear as elongated ribbons with a length of several hundred nanometers. They exhibit an apparent helical structure with a pitch-to-pitch distance of 50±15 nm. Since DNA pairing is a highly selective process, the ongoing studies are aimed to utilize DNA-grafted SPs for the programmable arrangement of functional entities. For example, the addition of non-modified complementary DNA strands to the DNA-grafted SPs leads to the cooperative formation of higher-order assemblies. Also, our experiments suggest that the fluorescent pyrene core of 1D ribbons serves as an efficient donor platform for energy transfer applications.

Hierarchical self-assembly of the DNA-grafted supramolecular polymers

Conjugation of functional entities with a specific set of optical, mechanical or biological properties to DNA strands allows engineering of sophisticated DNA-containing architectures. Among various hybrid systems, DNA-grafted polymers occupy an important place in modern materials science. In this contribution we present the non-covalent synthesis and properties of DNA-grafted linear supramolecular polymers (SPs), which are assembled in a controllable manner from short chimeric DNA-pyrene oligomers. The synthetic oligomers consist of two parts: a 10 nucleotides long DNA chain and a covalently attached segment of variable number of phosphodiester-linked pyrenes. The temperature-dependent formation of DNA-grafted SPs is described by a nucleation-elongation mechanism. The high tendency of pyrenes to aggregate in water, leads to the rapid formation of SPs. The core of the assemblies consists of stacked pyrenes. They form a 1D platform, to which the DNA chains are attached. Combined spectroscopic and microscopic studies reveal that the major driving forces of the polymerization are π-stacking of pyrenes and hydrophobic interactions, and DNA pairing contributes to a lesser extent. AFM and TEM experiments demonstrate that the 1D SPs appear as elongated ribbons with a length of several hundred nanometers. They exhibit an apparent helical structure with a pitch-to-pitch distance of 50±15 nm. Since DNA pairing is a highly selective process, the ongoing studies are aimed to utilize DNA-grafted SPs for the programmable arrangement of functional entities. For example, the addition of non-modified complementary DNA strands to the DNA-grafted SPs leads to the cooperative formation of higher-order assemblies. Also, our experiments suggest that the fluorescent pyrene core of 1D ribbons serves as an efficient donor platform for energy transfer applications.

On degeneracy and invariances of random fields paths with applications in Gaussian process modelling

We study pathwise invariances and degeneracies of random fields with motivating applications in Gaussian process modelling. The key idea is that a number of structural properties one may wish to impose a priori on functions boil down to degeneracy properties under well-chosen linear operators. We first show in a second order set-up that almost sure degeneracy of random field paths under some class of linear operators defined in terms of signed measures can be controlled through the two first moments. A special focus is then put on the Gaussian case, where these results are revisited and extended to further linear operators thanks to state-of-the-art representations. Several degeneracy properties are tackled, including random fields with symmetric paths, centred paths, harmonic paths, or sparse paths. The proposed approach delivers a number of promising results and perspectives in Gaussian process modelling. In a first numerical experiment, it is shown that dedicated kernels can be used to infer an axis of symmetry. Our second numerical experiment deals with conditional simulations of a solution to the heat equation, and it is found that adapted kernels notably enable improved predictions of non-linear functionals of the field such as its maximum.