Droughts and famines: The underlying factors and the causal links among agro-pastoral households in semi-arid Makueni district, Kenya

Famines are often linked to drought in semi-arid areas of Sub-Saharan Africa where not only pastoralists, but also increasingly agro-pastoralists are affected. This study addresses the interplay between drought and famine in the rural semi-arid areas of Makueni district, Kenya, by examining whether, and how crop production conditions and agro-pastoral strategies predispose smallholder households to drought-triggered food insecurity. If this hypothesis holds, then approaches to deal with drought and famine have to target factors causing household food insecurity during non-drought periods. Data from a longitudinal survey of 127 households, interviews, workshops, and daily rainfall records (1961–2003) were analysed using quantitative and qualitative methods. This integrated approach confirms the above hypothesis and reveals that factors other than rainfall, like asset and labour constraints, inadequate policy enforcement, as well as the poverty-driven inability to adopt risk-averse production systems play a key role. When linking these factors to the high rainfall variability, farmer-relevant definitions and forecasts of drought have to be applied.

Impacts of out-migration on land management in mountain areas

INTRODUCTION Out-migration from mountain areas is leaving behind half families and elderly to deal with managing the land alongside daily life challenges. A potential reduction of labour force as well as expertise on cropping practices, maintenance of terraces and irrigation canals, slope stabilization, grazing, forest and other land management practices are further challenged by changing climate conditions and increased environmental threats. An understanding of the resilience of managed land resources in order to enhance adaptation to environmental and socio-economic variability, and evidence of the impact of Sustainable Land Management (SLM) on the mitigation of environmental threats have so far not sufficiently been tackled. The study presented here aims to find out how land management in mountains is being affected by migration in the context of natural hazards and climate change in two study sites, namely Quillacollo District of Bolivia and Panchase area of Western Nepal, and which measures are needed to increase resilience of livelihoods and land management practices. The presentation includes draft results from first field work periods in both sites. A context of high vulnerability According to UNISDR, vulnerability is defined as “the characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard”.Hazards are another threat affecting people’s livelihood in mountainous area. They can be either natural or human induced. Landslides, debris flow and flood are affecting peopleGood land management can significantly reduce occurrence of hazards. In the opposite bad land management or land abandonment can lead to negative consequences on the land, and thus again increase vulnerability of people’s livelihoods. METHODS The study integrates bio-physical and socio-economic data through a case study as well as a mapping approach. From the social sciences, well-tested participatory qualitative methodologies, typically used in Vulnerability and Capacity Analyses, such as semi-structured interviews with so-called ‘key informants’, transect walks, participatory risk and social resource mapping are applied. The bio-physical analysis of the current environmental conditions determining hazards and structural vulnerability are obtained from remote sensing analysis, field work studies, and GIS analysis The assessment of the consequences of migration in the area of origin is linked with a mapping and appraisal of land management practices (www.wocat.net, Schwilch et al., 2011). The WOCAT mapping tool (WOCAT/LADA/DESIRE 2008) allows capturing the major land management practices / technologies, their spread, effectiveness and impact within a selected area. Data drawn from a variety of sources are compiled and harmonised by a team of experts, consisting of land degradation and conservation specialists working in consultation with land users from various backgrounds. The specialists’ and land users’ knowledge is combined with existing datasets and documents (maps, GIS layers, high-resolution satellite images, etc.) in workshops that are designed to build consensus regarding the variables used to assess land degradation and SLM. This process is also referred to as participatory expert assessment or consensus mapping. The WOCAT mapping and SLM documentation methodologies are used together with participatory mapping and other socio-economic data collection (interviews, questionnaires, focus group discussions, expert consultation) to combine information about migration types and land management issues. GIS and other spatial visualization tools (e.g. Google maps) will help to represent and understand these links. FIRST RESULTS Nepal In Nepal, migration is a common strategy to improve the livelihoods. Migrants are mostly men and they migrate to other Asian countries, first to India and then to the Gulf countries. Only a few women are migrating abroad. Women migrate essentially to main Nepali cities when they can afford it. Remittances are used primarily for food and education; however they are hardly used for agricultural purposes. Besides traditional agriculture being maintained, only few new practices are emerging, such as vegetable farming or agroforestry. The land abandonment is a growing consequence of outmigration, resulting in the spreading of invasive species. However, most impacts of migration on land management are not yet clear. Moreover, education is a major concern for the respondents; they want their children having a better education and get better opportunities. Linked to this, unemployment is another major concern of the respondents, which in turn is “solved” through outmigration. Bolivia Migration is a common livelihood strategy in Bolivia. In the area of study, whole families are migrating downward to the cities of the valleys or to other departments of Bolivia, especially to Chapare (tropics) for the coca production and to Santa Cruz. Some young people are migrating abroad, mostly to Argentina. There are few remittances and if those are sent to the families in the mountain areas, then they are mainly used for agriculture purpose. The impacts of migration on land management practices are not clear although there are some important aspects to be underlined. The people who move downward are still using their land and coming back during part of the week to work on it. As a consequence of this multi-residency, there is a tendency to reduce land management work or to change the way the land is used. As in Nepal, education is a very important issue in this area. There is no secondary school, and only one community has a primary school. After the 6th grade students have therefore to go down into the valley towns to study. The lack of basic education is pushing more and more people to move down and to leave the mountains. CONCLUSIONS This study is on-going, more data have to be collected to clearly assess the impacts of out-migration on land management in mountain areas. The first results of the study allow us to present a few interesting findings. The two case studies are very different, however in both areas, young people are not staying anymore in the mountains and leave behind half families and elderly to manage the land. Additionally in both cases education is a major reason for moving out, even though the causes are not always the same. More specifically, in the case of Nepal, the use of remittances underlines the fact that investment in agriculture is not the first choice of a family. In the case of Bolivia, some interesting findings showed that people continue to work on their lands even if they move downward. The further steps of the study will help to explore these interesting issues in more detail. REFERENCES Schwilch G., Bestelmeyer B., Bunning S., Critchley W., Herrick J., Kellner K., Liniger H.P., Nachtergaele F., Ritsema C.J., Schuster B., Tabo R., van Lynden G., Winslow M. 2011. Experiences in Monitoring and Assessment of Sustainable Land Management. Land Degradation & Development 22 (2), 214-225. Doi 10.1002/ldr.1040 WOCAT/LADA/DESIRE 2008. A Questionnaire for Mapping Land Degradation and Sustainable Land Management. Liniger H.P., van Lynden G., Nachtergaele F., Schwilch G. (eds), Centre for Development and Environment, Institute of Geography, University of Berne, Berne

Creating a public tool to assess and promote transparency in global land deals: the experience of the Land Matrix

The Beta version of the Land Matrix (Land Matrix 2012) was launched in April 2012 as a tool to promote public participation in building a constantly evolving database on large-scale land deals, and making the data visible and understandable. The aim of the Land Matrix partnership is to promote transparency and open data in decisionmaking over land and investment, as a step towards greater accountability. Since its launch, the Land Matrix has attracted a high degree of attention, and stirred some controversy. It provides valuable lessons on the challenges and benefits of promoting open data on practices that are often shrouded in secrecy. This paper critically examines the ongoing efforts by the Land Matrix partnership to build a public tool to promote greater transparency in decision-making over land and investment at a global level. It intends to provoke discussion of the extent to which such a tool can ultimately promote greater transparency and be a step towards greater accountability and improved decision-making. It will present the Land Matrix and its value addition, before detailing the challenges it encountered related to the measurement of the largescale land acquisition phenomenon. It will then specify how it intends to address these issues in order to establish a dynamic and participatory tool for open development.

Metacognitive monitoring and control in elementary school children: Their interrelations and their role for test performance

Contemporary models of self-regulated learning emphasize the role of distal motivational factors for student's achievement, on the one side, and the proximal role of metacognitive monitoring and control for learning and test outcomes, on the other side. In the present study, two larger samples of elementary school children (9- and 11-year-olds) were included and their mastery-oriented motivation, metacognitive monitoring and control skills were integrated into structural equation models testing and comparing the relative impact of these different constituents for self-regulated learning. For one, results indicate that the factorial structure of monitoring, control and mastery motivation was invariant across the two age groups. Of specific interest was the finding that there were age-dependent structural links between monitoring, control, and test performance (closer links in the older compared to the younger children), with high confidence yielding a direct and positive effect on test performance and a direct and negative effect on adequate control behavior in the achievement test. Mastery-oriented motivation was not found to be substantially associated with monitoring (confidence), control (detection and correction of errors), or test performance underlining the importance of proximal, metacognitive factors for test performance in elementary school children.

The relation between cognitive and motor performance and their relevance for children’s transition to school: A latent variable approach

Both theoretically and empirically there is a continuous interest in understanding the specific relation between cognitive and motor development in childhood. In the present longitudinal study including three measurement points, this relation was targeted. At the beginning of the study, the participating children were 5-6-year-olds. By assessing participants' fine motor skills, their executive functioning, and their non-verbal intelligence, their cross-sectional and cross-lagged interrelations were examined. Additionally, performance in these three areas was used to predict early school achievement (in terms of mathematics, reading, and spelling) at the end of participants' first grade. Correlational analyses and structural equation modeling revealed that fine motor skills, non-verbal intelligence and executive functioning were significantly interrelated. Both fine motor skills and intelligence had significant links to later school achievement. However, when executive functioning was additionally included into the prediction of early academic achievement, fine motor skills and non-verbal intelligence were no longer significantly associated with later school performance suggesting that executive functioning plays an important role for the motor-cognitive performance link.

Prospective Memory, Retrospective Memory, Executive Functions, and Metacognition: How they are linked longitudinally in young elementary school children

Succeeding in everyday activities often requires executive functioning (EF), metacognitive abilities (MC) and memory skills such as prospective memory (PM) and retrospective memory (RM). These cognitive abilities seem to gradually develop in childhood, possibly influencing each other during development. From a theoretical point of view, it is likely that they are closely interrelated, especially in children. Their empirical relation, however, is less clear. A model that links these cognitive abilities can help to better understand the relation between PM and RM and other cognitive processes. In this project we studied the longitudinal development of PM, RM, EF, and MC in 7-8 year old elementary school children across half a year. 119 second graders (MT1 = 95 months, SDT1, = 4.8 months) completed the same PM, RM, EF and MC tasks twice with a time-lag of 7 months. The developmental progression was analysed using paired t-tests, the longitudinal relationships were analysed using confirmatory factor analysis and all fit indices are in accordance with Hu and Bentler (1998). In general, performance improved significantly (ps < .001) and effect sizes ranged from .45 to .62 (Cohen’s d). CFA revealed a good model fit, c2(227, 119) = 242.56, p = .23, TLI = .973, CFI = .979, RMSEA = .024. At T1, significant cross-sectional links were found between PM T1 and RM T1, between PM T1 and EF T1, and between EF T1 and MC T1. Moreover, significant longitudinal links were found between EFT1 and PMT2 and between EFT1 and MCT2; EF T1 and RM T2 were marginally linked. Results underline previous findings showing that PM, RM, EF, and MC develop significantly during childhood, even within this short time period. Results also indicate that these cognitive abilities are linked not only cross-sectionally, but longitudinally. Most relevant, however, is the predictive role of EF for both metacognition and memory.

Longitudinal relationships between prospective memory, executive functions, and metacognition in young elementary school children

Prospective Memory (PM), executive functions (EF) and metacognition (MC) are relevant cognitive abilities for everyday functioning. They all seem to develop gradually in childhood and appear to be theoretically closely related; however, their empirical links remain unclear, especially in children. As a recent study revealed significant cross-sectional links between PM and EF, and a weaker but close link between PM and MC in 2nd graders (Spiess, Meier, & Roebers, submitted), this study focused on their short-term relationships and on their development. 119 children (MT1 =95 months, SDT1, = 4.8 months) completed the same tasks (one PM, three EF, one MC task) twice with a time-lag of 7 months. T-tests showed significant improvements in all tasks, except in the updating task. Different structural equation models were contrasted (AMOS); the best fitting model revealed that PMT2 was similarly predicted by PMT1 (r = .33) and EFT1 (r = .34). Additionally, EFT1 predicted MCT2 (r = .44), chi2(118, 119) = 128.91, p = .23, TLI = .968, CFI = .978, RMSEA = .028. Results show that PM, EF, and MC develop during childhood and also demonstrate that they are linked not only cross-sectionally, but longitudinally. Findings are discussed in a broader developmental framework.

Catching Reality or Bowing Disciplines: How to Move the Study of Citizenship

In his contribution, Joppke justifies his selection of foundational scholars by linking each to what he sees as the three key facets of citizenship: status, rights and identity. Maarten Vink explicitly links his research agenda to the first, status, and outlines why it is so important. In identifying three facets of citizenship, Joppke acknowledges that some academics would include political participation, but he ultimately decides against it. But here we can, and should, broaden citizenship studies by bringing in insights from the behavioral politics tradition in domestic politics - when and why people engage in political acts - and from the social movements literature in sociology. I believe that the American debate on immigration reform, admittedly stalled, would not have advanced as far as it has without the social movement activism of DREAMers - unauthorized young people pushing for a path to citizenship - and the belief that Barack Obama won re-election in part because of the Latino vote. Importantly, one type of political activism demands formal citizenship, the other does not. As many contributors note, the “national models” approach has had a significant impact on citizenship studies. Whether one views such models through a cultural, institutional or historical lens, this tends to be a top-down, macro-level framework. What about immigrants’ agency? In Canada, although the ruling Conservative government is shifting citizenship discourse to a more traditional language - as Winter points out - it has not reduced immigration, ended dual citizenship, or eliminated multiculturalism, all goals of the Reform Party that the current prime minister once helped build. “Lock-in” effects (or policy feedback loops) based on high immigrant naturalization and the coming of age of a second-generation with citizenship also d emands study, in North America and elsewhere. Much of the research thus far suggests that political decisions over citizenship status and rights do not seem linked to immigrants’ political activism. State-centered decision-making may have characterized policy in the early post-World War II period in Europe (and East Asia?), but does it continue to hold today? Majority publics and immigrant-origin residents are increasingly politicized around citizenship and immigration. Does immigrant agency extend citizenship status, rights and identity to those born outside the polity? Is electoral power key, or is protest necessary? How is citizenship practiced, and contested, irrespective of formal status? These are important and understudied empirical questions, ones that demand theoretical creativity - across sub-fields and disciplines - in conceptualizing and understanding citizenship in contemporary times.

A Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement: Implications for Swiss Agriculture

To say that regionalism is gaining momentum has become an understatement. To mourn the lack of progress in multilateral trade rule-making is a commonplace in the discourse of politicians regretting the WTO negotiation standstill, and of “know-what-to-do” academics. The real problem is the uneven level-playing field resulting from increasing differences of rules and obligations. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (TTIP) is a very ambitious project. WTI studies in 2014 have shown that the implications for Switzerland could be enormous. But even the combined market power of the two TTIP participants – the EU and the USA – will not level the playing field impairing the regulatory framework, and the market access barriers for trade in agriculture. Such differences will remain in three areas which, incidentally, are also vital for a global response to the food security challenge to feed 9 billion people before the year 2050: market access, non-tariff barriers, and trade-distorting domestic support programmes. This means that without multilateral progress the TTIP and other so-called mega-regionals, if successfully concluded, will exacerbate rather than lessen trade distortions. While this makes farmers in rich countries safer from competition, competitive production in all countries will be hampered. Consequently, and notwithstanding the many affirmations to the contrary, farm policies worldwide will continue to only address farmer security without increasing global food security. What are the implications of the TTIP for Swiss agriculture? This article, commissioned by Waseda University in Tokyo, finds that the failure to achieve further reforms – including a number of areas where earlier reforms have been reversed – is presenting Switzerland and Swiss agriculture with a terrible dilemma in the eventuality of a successful conclusion of the TTIP. If Swiss farm production is to survive for more than another generation, continuous reform efforts are required, and over-reliance on the traditional instruments of border protection and product support is to be avoided. Without a substantial TTIP obliging Switzerland to follow suit, autonomous reforms will remain extremely fragile.

Functional evidence for continued alveolarisation in former preterms at school age?

Prematurity is the most common disruptor of lung development. The aim of our study was to examine the function of the more vulnerable peripheral airways in former preterm children by multiple-breath washout (MBW) measurements.86 school-aged children, born between 24 and 35 weeks of gestation and 49 term-born children performed nitrogen MBW. Lung clearance index (LCI), and slope III-derived Scond and Sacin were assessed as markers for global, convection-dependent and diffusion-convection-dependent ventilation inhomogeneity, respectively.We analysed the data of 77 former preterm (mean (range) age 9.5 (7.2-12.8) years) and 46 term-born children (mean age 9.9 (6.0-15.9) years). LCI and Sacin did not differ between preterm and term-born children. Scond was significantly elevated in preterm compared to term-born participants (mean difference z-score 1.74, 95% CI 1.17-2.30; p<0.001), with 54% of former preterm children showing elevated Scond. In multivariable regression analysis Scond was significantly related only to gestational age (R(2)=0.37).Normal Sacin provides evidence for a functionally normal alveolar compartment, while elevated Scond indicates impaired function of more proximal conducting airways. Together, our findings support the concept of continued alveolarisation, albeit with "dysanaptic" lung growth in former preterm children.

Global models of planet formation and evolution

Despite the strong increase in observational data on extrasolar planets, the processes that led to the formation of these planets are still not well understood. However, thanks to the high number of extrasolar planets that have been discovered, it is now possible to look at the planets as a population that puts statistical constraints on theoretical formation models. A method that uses these constraints is planetary population synthesis where synthetic planetary populations are generated and compared to the actual population. The key element of the population synthesis method is a global model of planet formation and evolution. These models directly predict observable planetary properties based on properties of the natal protoplanetary disc, linking two important classes of astrophysical objects. To do so, global models build on the simplified results of many specialized models that address one specific physical mechanism. We thoroughly review the physics of the sub-models included in global formation models. The sub-models can be classified as models describing the protoplanetary disc (of gas and solids), those that describe one (proto)planet (its solid core, gaseous envelope and atmosphere), and finally those that describe the interactions (orbital migration and N-body interaction). We compare the approaches taken in different global models, discuss the links between specialized and global models, and identify physical processes that require improved descriptions in future work. We then shortly address important results of planetary population synthesis like the planetary mass function or the mass-radius relationship. With these statistical results, the global effects of physical mechanisms occurring during planet formation and evolution become apparent, and specialized models describing them can be put to the observational test. Owing to their nature as meta models, global models depend on the results of specialized models, and therefore on the development of the field of planet formation theory as a whole. Because there are important uncertainties in this theory, it is likely that the global models will in future undergo significant modifications. Despite these limitations, global models can already now yield many testable predictions. With future global models addressing the geophysical characteristics of the synthetic planets, it should eventually become possible to make predictions about the habitability of planets based on their formation and evolution.

Addressing climate change under preferential trade agreements: Towards alignment of carbon standards under the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

With its wide coverage of economic spheres and the variety of trade and investment measures currently under negotiation, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership opens windows of opportunity for advancing action on climate change. We examine possible avenues and international trade law implications for an alignment of carbon-related standards between the EU and the US. We compare EU and US carbon emissions standards for cars and argue that negotiators should strive for a mutual recognition of their equivalence for a transitional period, while pursuing the goal of full harmonization at the level of the highest standards of two parties at some date in the future. This could be a way to balance between economic and environmental interests and harness economic incentives for the benefit of climate.