Association between trends in clinical variables and outcome in intensive care patients with faecal peritonitis: analysis of the GenOSept cohort.

INTRODUCTION Patients admitted to intensive care following surgery for faecal peritonitis present particular challenges in terms of clinical management and risk assessment. Collaborating surgical and intensive care teams need shared perspectives on prognosis. We aimed to determine the relationship between dynamic assessment of trends in selected variables and outcomes. METHODS We analysed trends in physiological and laboratory variables during the first week of intensive care unit (ICU) stay in 977 patients at 102 centres across 16 European countries. The primary outcome was 6-month mortality. Secondary endpoints were ICU, hospital and 28-day mortality. For each trend, Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression analyses, adjusted for age and sex, were performed for each endpoint. RESULTS Trends over the first 7 days of the ICU stay independently associated with 6-month mortality were worsening thrombocytopaenia (mortality: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.02; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.01 to 1.03; P <0.001) and renal function (total daily urine output: HR =1.02; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.03; P <0.001; Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) renal subscore: HR = 0.87; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P = 0.047), maximum bilirubin level (HR = 0.99; 95% CI, 0.99 to 0.99; P = 0.02) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) SOFA subscore (HR = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.98; P = 0.028). Changes in renal function (total daily urine output and renal component of the SOFA score), GCS component of the SOFA score, total SOFA score and worsening thrombocytopaenia were also independently associated with secondary outcomes (ICU, hospital and 28-day mortality). We detected the same pattern when we analysed trends on days 2, 3 and 5. Dynamic trends in all other measured laboratory and physiological variables, and in radiological findings, changes inrespiratory support, renal replacement therapy and inotrope and/or vasopressor requirements failed to be retained as independently associated with outcome in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS Only deterioration in renal function, thrombocytopaenia and SOFA score over the first 2, 3, 5 and 7 days of the ICU stay were consistently associated with mortality at all endpoints. These findings may help to inform clinical decision making in patients with this common cause of critical illness.

Reconsidering the logic of World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies grading in patients with severe subarachnoid hemorrhage.

OBJECT Current data show a favorable outcome in up to 50% of patients with World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) Grade V subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) and a rather poor prediction of worst cases. Thus, the usefulness of the current WFNS grading system for identifying the worst scenarios for clinical studies and for making treatment decisions is limited. One reason for this lack of differentiation is the use of "negative" or "silent" diagnostic signs as part of the WFNS Grade V definition. The authors therefore reevaluated the WFNS scale by using "positive" clinical signs and the logic of the Glasgow Coma Scale as a progressive herniation score. METHODS The authors performed a retrospective analysis of 182 patients with SAH who had poor grades on the WFNS scale. Patients were graded according to the original WFNS scale and additionally according to a modified classification, the WFNS herniation (hWFNS) scale (Grade IV, no clinical signs of herniation; Grade V, clinical signs of herniation). The prediction of poor outcome was compared between these two grading systems. RESULTS The positive predictive values of Grade V for poor outcome were 74.3% (OR 3.79, 95% CI 1.94-7.54) for WFNS Grade V and 85.7% (OR 8.27, 95% CI 3.78-19.47) for hWFNS Grade V. With respect to mortality, the positive predictive values were 68.3% (OR 3.9, 95% CI 2.01-7.69) for WFNS Grade V and 77.9% (OR 6.22, 95% CI 3.07-13.14) for hWFNS Grade V. CONCLUSIONS Limiting WFNS Grade V to the positive clinical signs of the Glasgow Coma Scale such as flexion, extension, and pupillary abnormalities instead of including "no motor response" increases the prediction of mortality and poor outcome in patients with severe SAH.

Lateral impact in closed head injury: A substantially increased risk for diffuse axonal injury—A preliminary study

OBJECTIVE: Assessment, whether location of impact causing different facial fracture patterns was associated with diffuse axonal injury in patients with severe closed head injury. METHODS: Retrospectively all patients referred to the Trauma Unit of the University Hospital of Zurich, Switzerland between 1996 and 2002 presenting with severe closed head injuries (Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) (face) of 2-4 and an AIS (head and neck) of 3-5) were assessed according to the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and the Injury Severity Score (ISS). Facial fracture patterns were classified as resulting from frontal, oblique or lateral impact. All patients had undergone computed tomography. The association between impact location and diffuse axonal injury when correcting for the level of consciousness (using the Glasgow scale) and severity of injury (using the ISS) was calculated with a multivariate regression analysis. RESULTS: Of 200 screened patients, 61 fulfilled the inclusion criteria for severe closed head injury. The medians (interquartile ranges 25;75) for GCS, AIS(face) AIS(head and neck) and ISS were 3 (3;13), 2 (2;4), 4 (4;5) and 30 (24;41), respectively. A total of 51% patients had frontal, 26% had an oblique and 23% had lateral trauma. A total of 21% patients developed diffuse axonal injury (DAI) when compared with frontal impact, the likelihood of diffuse axonal injury increased 11.0 fold (1.7-73.0) in patients with a lateral impact. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians should be aware of the substantial increase of diffuse axonal injury related to lateral impact in patients with severe closed head injuries.

Is surgery in aCute aortiC disseCtion type A still ContraindiCated in the presenCe of preoperative neurologiCal symptoms?

Gebiet: Kardiologie Abstract: OBJECTIVES: Severe neurologiCal defiCit (ND) due to aCute aortiC disseCtion type A (AADA) was Considered a ContraindiCation for surgery beCause of poor prognosis. ReCently, more aggressive indiCation for surgery despite neurologiCal symptoms has shown aCCeptable – postoperative CliniCal results. The aim of this study was to evaluate early and mid-term outComes of patients with AADA presenting with aCute ND. – – METHODS: Data from 53 patients with new-onset ND who reCeived surgiCal repair for AADA between 2005 and 2012 at our institution were retrospeCtively reviewed. ND was defined as foCal motor or sensory defiCit, hemiplegia, paraplegia, Convulsions or Coma. NeurologiCal symptoms were evaluated preoperatively using the Glasgow Coma SCale (GCS) and modified Rankin SCale (mRS), and at disCharge as well as 3–6 months postoperatively using the mRS and National Institutes of Health Stroke SCale. Involvement of Carotid arteries was assessed in the pre- and postoperative Computed tomography. LogistiC regression analysis was performed to deteCt prediCtive faCtors for reCovery of ND. – – RESULTS: Of the 53 patients, 29 (54.7%) showed Complete reCovery from foCal ND at follow-up. NeurologiCal symptoms persisted in 24 (45.3%) patients, of whiCh 8 (33%) died without neurologiCal assessment at follow-up. Between the two groups (patients with reCovery and – those with persisting ND), there was no signifiCant differenCe regarding the duration of hypothermiC CirCulatory arrest (28 ± 14 vs 36 ± 20 min) or severely reduCed ConsCiousness (GCS <8). Multivariate analysis showed signifiCant differenCes for the preoperative mRS between the two groups (P < 0.007). A high preoperative mRS was assoCiated with persistenCe of neurologiCal symptoms (P < 0.02). CardiovasCular risk faCtors, age or involvement of supra-aortiC branChes were not prediCtive for persistenCe of ND. – – CONCLUSION: More than half of our patients reCovered Completely from ND due to AADA after surgery. Severity of CliniCal symptoms had a prediCtive value. Patients suffering from AADA and presenting with ND before surgery should not be exCluded from emergenCy surgery.

Cohort Study on the Association Between Helmet Use and Traumatic Brain Injury in Snowboarders From a Swiss Tertiary Trauma Center.

BACKGROUND Since the introduction of helmets in winter sports there is on-going debate on whether they decrease traumatic brain injuries (TBI). METHODS This cohort study included 117 adult (≥ 16 years) snowboarders with TBI admitted to a level I alpine trauma center in Switzerland between 2000/2001 and 2010/2011. The primary objective was to examine the association between helmet use and moderate-to-severe TBI. Secondary objectives were to describe the epidemiology of TBI during the past decade in relation to increased helmet use. RESULTS Of 691 injured snowboarders evaluated, 117 (17%) suffered TBI. Sixty-six percent were men (median age, 23 years). Two percent of accidents were fatal. Ninety-two percent of patients sustained minor, 1% moderate, and 7% severe TBI according to the Glasgow coma scale. Pathologic computed tomography findings were present in 16% of patients, 26% of which required surgery. Eighty-three percent of TBIs occurred while riding on-slope. There was no trend in the TBI rate during the studied period, although helmet use increased from 10% to 69%. Comparing patients with and without a helmet showed no significant difference in odds ratios for the severity of TBI. However, of the 5 patients requiring surgery only 1 was wearing a helmet. Off-piste compared with on-slope snowboarders showed an odds ratio of 26.5 (P = 0.003) for sustaining a moderate-to-severe TBI. CONCLUSIONS Despite increased helmet use we found no decrease in TBI among snowboarders. The possibility of TBI despite helmet use and the dangers of riding off-piste should be a focus of future prevention programs.

Survivors with bad outcome after hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy: full-term neonates compare unfavourably with children

Hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy (HIE) is of major importance in neonatal and paediatric intensive care with regard to mortality and long-term morbidity. Our aim was to analyse our data in full-term neonates and children with special regard to withdrawal of life support and bad outcome. PATIENTS: All patients with HIE admitted to our unit from 1992-96 were analysed. Criteria for HIE were presence of a hypoxic insult followed by coma or altered consciousness with or without convulsions. Severity of HIE was assessed in neonates using Sarnat stages, and in children the duration of coma. In the majority of cases staging was completed with electrophysiological studies. Outcome was described using the Glasgow Outcome Scale. Bad outcome was defined as death, permanent vegetative state or severe disability, good outcome as moderate disability or good recovery. RESULTS: In the neonatal group (n = 38) outcome was significantly associated with Sarnat stages, presence of convulsions, severely abnormal EEG, cardiovascular failure, and multiple organ dysfunction (MOD). A bad outcome was observed in 27 cases with 14 deaths and 13 survivors. Supportive treatment was withdrawn in 14 cases with 9 subsequent deaths. In the older age group (n = 45) outcome was related to persistent coma of 24-48 h, severely abnormal EEG, cardiovascular failure, liver dysfunction and MOD. A bad outcome was found in 36 cases with 33 deaths and 3 survivors. Supportive treatment was withdrawn in 15 instances, all followed by death. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, neonates and older patients did not differ with regard to good or bad outcome. However, in the neonatal group there were significantly more survivors with bad outcome, either overall or after withdrawal of support. Possible explanations for this difference include variability of hypoxic insult, maturational and metabolic differences, and the more compliant neonatal skull, which prevents brainstem herniation.

Preventing vasospasm improves outcome after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: rationale and design of CONSCIOUS-2 and CONSCIOUS-3 trials

Cerebral vasospasm after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is a frequent but unpredictable complication associated with poor outcome. Current vasospasm therapies are suboptimal; new therapies are needed. Clazosentan, an endothelin receptor antagonist, has shown promise in phase 2 studies, and two randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 trials (CONSCIOUS-2 and CONSCIOUS-3) are underway to further investigate its impact on vasospasm-related outcome after aSAH. Here, we describe the design of these studies, which was challenging with respect to defining endpoints and standardizing endpoint interpretation and patient care. Main inclusion criteria are: age 18-75 years; SAH due to ruptured saccular aneurysm secured by surgical clipping (CONSCIOUS-2) or endovascular coiling (CONSCIOUS-3); substantial subarachnoid clot; and World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies grades I-IV prior to aneurysm-securing procedure. In CONSCIOUS-2, patients are randomized 2:1 to clazosentan (5 mg/h) or placebo. In CONSCIOUS-3, patients are randomized 1:1:1 to clazosentan 5, 15 mg/h, or placebo. Treatment is initiated within 56 h of aSAH and continued until 14 days after aSAH. Primary endpoint is a composite of mortality and vasospasm-related morbidity within 6 weeks of aSAH (all-cause mortality, vasospasm-related new cerebral infarction, vasospasm-related delayed ischemic neurological deficit, neurological signs or symptoms in the presence of angiographic vasospasm leading to rescue therapy initiation). Main secondary endpoint is extended Glasgow Outcome Scale at week 12. A critical events committee assesses all data centrally to ensure consistency in interpretation, and patient management guidelines are used to standardize care. Results are expected at the end of 2010 and 2011 for CONSCIOUS-2 and CONSCIOUS-3, respectively.

Epidemiology and predictors of spinal injury in adult major trauma patients: European cohort study

This is a European cohort study on predictors of spinal injury in adult (≥16 years) major trauma patients, using prospectively collected data of the Trauma Audit and Research Network from 1988 to 2009. Predictors for spinal fractures/dislocations or spinal cord injury were determined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. 250,584 patients were analysed. 24,000 patients (9.6%) sustained spinal fractures/dislocations alone and 4,489 (1.8%) sustained spinal cord injury with or without fractures/dislocations. Spinal injury patients had a median age of 44.5 years (IQR = 28.8-64.0) and Injury Severity Score of 9 (IQR = 4-17). 64.9% were male. 45% of patients suffered associated injuries to other body regions. Age <45 years (≥45 years OR 0.83-0.94), Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) 3-8 (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02-1.19), falls >2 m (OR 4.17, 95% CI 3.98-4.37), sports injuries (OR 2.79, 95% CI 2.41-3.23) and road traffic collisions (RTCs) (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.83-2.00) were predictors for spinal fractures/dislocations. Age <45 years (≥45 years OR 0.78-0.90), male gender (female OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.72-0.85), GCS <15 (OR 1.36-1.93), associated chest injury (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01-1.20), sports injuries (OR 3.98, 95% CI 3.04-5.21), falls >2 m (OR 3.60, 95% CI 3.21-4.04), RTCs (OR 2.20, 95% CI 1.96-2.46) and shooting (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.21-3.00) were predictors for spinal cord injury. Multilevel injury was found in 10.4% of fractures/dislocations and in 1.3% of cord injury patients. As spinal trauma occurred in >10% of major trauma patients, aggressive evaluation of the spine is warranted, especially, in males, patients <45 years, with a GCS <15, concomitant chest injury and/or dangerous injury mechanisms (falls >2 m, sports injuries, RTCs and shooting). Diagnostic imaging of the whole spine and a diligent search for associated injuries are substantial.

Association between elevated brain tissue glycerol levels and poor outcome following severe traumatic brain injury

OBJECT: Glycerol is considered to be a marker of cell membrane degradation and thus cellular lysis. Recently, it has become feasible to measure via microdialysis cerebral extracellular fluid (ECF) glycerol concentrations at the patient's bedside. Therefore the aim of this study was to investigate the ECF concentration and time course of glycerol after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) and its relationship to patient outcome and other monitoring parameters. METHODS: As soon as possible after injury for up to 4 days, 76 severely head-injured patients were monitored using a microdialysis probe (cerebral glycerol) and a Neurotrend sensor (brain tissue PO2) in uninjured brain tissue confirmed by computerized tomography scanning. The mean brain tissue glycerol concentration in all monitored patients decreased significantly from 206 +/- 31 micromol/L on Day 1 to 9 +/- 3 micromol/L on Day 4 after injury (p < 0.0001). Note, however, that there was no significant difference in the time course between patients with a favorable outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale [GOS] Scores 4 and 5) and those with an unfavorable outcome (GOS Scores 1-3). Significantly increased glycerol concentrations were observed when brain tissue PO2 was less than 10 mm Hg or when cerebral perfusion pressure was less than 70 mm Hg. CONCLUSIONS: Based on results in the present study one can infer that microdialysate glycerol is a marker of severe tissue damage, as seen immediately after brain injury or during profound tissue hypoxia. Given that brain tissue glycerol levels do not yet add new clinically significant information, however, routine monitoring of this parameter following traumatic brain injury needs further validation.

Cerebral oxygenation in patients after severe head injury: monitoring and effects of arterial hyperoxia on cerebral blood flow, metabolism and intracranial pressure

Early impaired cerebral blood flow (CBF) after severe head injury (SHI) leads to poor brain tissue oxygen delivery and lactate accumulation. The purpose of this investigation was to elucidate the relationship between CBF, local dialysate lactate (lact(md)) and dialysate glucose (gluc(md)), and brain tissue oxygen levels (PtiO2) under arterial normoxia. The effect of increased brain tissue oxygenation due to high fractions of inspired oxygen (FiO2) on lact(md) and CBF was explored. A total of 47 patients with SHI were enrolled in this studies (Glasgow Coma Score [GCS] < 8). CBF was first assessed in 40 patients at one time point in the first 96 hours (27 +/- 28 hours) after SHI using stable xenon computed tomography (Xe-CT) (30% inspired xenon [FiXe] and 35% FiO2). In a second study, sequential double CBF measurements were performed in 7 patients with 35% FiO2 and 60% FiO2, respectively, with an interval of 30 minutes. In a subsequent study, 14 patients underwent normobaric hyperoxia by increasing FiO2 from 35 +/- 5% to 60% and then 100% over a period of 6 hours. This was done to test the effect of normobaric hyperoxia on lact(md) and brain gluc(md), as measured by local microdialysis. Changes in PtiO2 in response to changes in FiO2 were analyzed by calculating the oxygen reactivity. Oxygen reactivity was then related to the 3-month outcome data. The levels of lact(md) and gluc(md) under hyperoxia were compared with the baseline levels, measured at 35% FiO2. Under normoxic conditions, there was a significant correlation between CBF and PtiO2 (R = 0.7; P < .001). In the sequential double CBF study, however, FiO2 was inversely correlated with CBF (P < .05). In the 14 patients undergoing the 6-hour 100% FiO2 challenge, the mean PtiO2 levels increased to 353 (87% compared with baseline), although the mean lact(md) levels decreased by 38 +/- 16% (P < .05). The PtiO2 response to 100% FiO2 (oxygen reactivity) was inversely correlated with outcome (P < .01). Monitoring PtiO2 after SHI provides valuable information about cerebral oxygenation and substrate delivery. Increasing arterial oxygen tension (PaO2) effectively increased PtiO2, and brain lact(md) was reduced by the same maneuver.

[The comatose child]

The child who presents with acute coma runs a high risk of cardiopulmonary insufficiency, direct brain injury or even cerebral herniation. The case-management of such child requires a coma-specific emergent evaluation, immediate treatment of any hypoxicischemic insults and of the underlying cause. The coma-specific examination includes performance of child-adapted Glasgow Coma Score, the evaluation of brain stem functions such as pupillary response to light, cough- and gag reflex, and determination of all vital signs including body temperature. Treatment of hypoxicischemic insults includes control of airways and ventilation in patient with coma defined as GCS <8; liberal treatment of impaired cardiovascular states with isotonic fluids such as 0.9% sodium chloride; and treatment of cerebral herniation with head elevation, mannitol, hypertonic sodium chlorid fluids, steroids and hyperventilation. Immediately treatable causes are hypoglycemia, meningitis/encephalitis, opioid overdose and status epilepticus. Exclusion of rapidly progressive intracranial lesions almost always requires referral to the tertiary centre with head CT-scan facilities. Finally, an extensive etiology search of the stable coma is performed by looking for disease or trauma of the brain, for metabolic causes, for intoxications and for cardiopulmonary problems.

Randomised trial of clazosentan, an endothelin receptor antagonist, in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage undergoing surgical clipping (CONSCIOUS-2)

We report here results of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study ( http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT00558311) that investigated the effect of clazosentan (5 mg/h, n = 768) or placebo (n = 389) administered for up to 14 days in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) repaired by surgical clipping. The primary endpoint was a composite of all-cause mortality, new cerebral infarction or delayed ischemic neurological deficit due to vasospasm, and rescue therapy for vasospasm. The main secondary endpoint was the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE), which was dichotomized. Twenty-one percent of clazosentan- compared to 25% of placebo-treated patients met the primary endpoint (relative risk reduction [RRR] [95% CI]: 17% [-4% to 33%]; p = 0.10). Poor outcome (GOSE score ≤ 4) occurred in 29% of clazosentan- and 25% of placebo-treated patients (RRR: -18% [-45% to 4%]; p = 0.10). In prespecified subgroups, mortality/vasospasm-related morbidity was reduced in clazosentan-treated patients by 33% (8-51%) in poor WFNS (World Federation of Neurological Surgeons) grade (≥III) and 25% (5-41%) in patients with diffuse, thick SAH. Lung complications, anemia and hypotension occurred more frequently with clazosentan. Mortality (week 12) was 6% in both groups. The results showed that clazosentan nonsignificantly decreased mortality/vasospasm-related morbidity and nonsignificantly increased poor functional outcome in patients with aneurysmal SAH undergoing surgical clipping.

Is a black eye a useful sign of facial fractures in patients with minor head injuries? A retrospective analysis in a level I trauma centre over 10 years

Orbital blunt trauma is common, and the diagnosis of a fracture should be made by computed tomographic (CT) scan. However, this will expose patients to ionising radiation. Our objective was to identify clinical predictors of orbital fracture, in particular the presence of a black eye, to minimise unnecessary exposure to radiation. A 10-year retrospective study was made of the medical records of all patients with minor head trauma who presented with one or two black eyes to our emergency department between May 2000 and April 2010. Each of the patients had a CT scan, was over 16 years old, and had a Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) of 13-15. The primary outcome was whether the black eye was a valuable predictor of a fracture. Accompanying clinical signs were considered as a secondary outcome. A total of 1676 patients (mean (SD) age 51 (22) years) and minor head trauma with either one or two black eyes were included. In 1144 the CT scan showed a fracture of the maxillofacial skeleton, which gave an incidence of 68.3% in whom a black eye was the obvious symptom. Specificity for facial fractures was particularly high for other clinical signs, such as diminished skin sensation (specificity 96.4%), diplopia or occulomotility disorders (89.3%), fracture steps (99.8%), epistaxis (95.5%), subconjunctival haemorrhage (90.4%), and emphysema (99.6%). Sensitivity for the same signs ranged from 10.8% to 22.2%. The most striking fact was that 68.3% of all patients with a black eye had an underlying fracture. We therefore conclude that a CT scan should be recommended for every patient with minor head injury who presents with a black eye.

First results from a Swiss level I trauma centre participating in the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN): Prospective cohort study

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: Patient characteristics and risk factors for death of Swiss trauma patients in the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN). METHODS: Descriptive analysis of trauma patients (≥16 years) admitted to a level I trauma centre in Switzerland (September 1, 2009 to August 31, 2010) and entered into TARN. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Of 458 patients 71% were male. The median age was 50.5 years (inter-quartile range [IQR] 32.2-67.7), median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 14 (IQR 9-20) and median Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) was 15 (IQR 14-15). The ISS was >15 for 47%, and 14% had an ISS >25. A total of 17 patients (3.7%) died within 30 days of trauma. All deaths were in patients with ISS >15. Most injuries were due to falls <2 m (35%) or road traffic accidents (29%). Injuries to the head (39%) were followed by injuries to the lower limbs (33%), spine (28%) and chest (27%). The time of admission peaked between 12:00 and 22:00, with a second peak between 00:00 and 02:00. A total of 64% of patients were admitted directly to our trauma centre. The median time to CT was 30 min (IQR 18-54 min). Using multivariable regression analysis, the predictors of mortality were older age, higher ISS and lower GCS. CONCLUSIONS: Characteristics of Swiss trauma patients derived from TARN were described for the first time, providing a detailed overview of the institutional trauma population. Based on these results, patient management and hospital resources (e.g. triage of patients, time to CT, staffing during night shifts) could be evaluated as a further step.

A clinical prediction model to identify patients at high risk of death in the emergency department.

PURPOSE Rapid assessment and intervention is important for the prognosis of acutely ill patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). The aim of this study was to prospectively develop and validate a model predicting the risk of in-hospital death based on all available information available at the time of ED admission and to compare its discriminative performance with a non-systematic risk estimate by the triaging first health-care provider. METHODS Prospective cohort analysis based on a multivariable logistic regression for the probability of death. RESULTS A total of 8,607 consecutive admissions of 7,680 patients admitted to the ED of a tertiary care hospital were analysed. Most frequent APACHE II diagnostic categories at the time of admission were neurological (2,052, 24 %), trauma (1,522, 18 %), infection categories [1,328, 15 %; including sepsis (357, 4.1 %), severe sepsis (249, 2.9 %), septic shock (27, 0.3 %)], cardiovascular (1,022, 12 %), gastrointestinal (848, 10 %) and respiratory (449, 5 %). The predictors of the final model were age, prolonged capillary refill time, blood pressure, mechanical ventilation, oxygen saturation index, Glasgow coma score and APACHE II diagnostic category. The model showed good discriminative ability, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92 and good internal validity. The model performed significantly better than non-systematic triaging of the patient. CONCLUSIONS The use of the prediction model can facilitate the identification of ED patients with higher mortality risk. The model performs better than a non-systematic assessment and may facilitate more rapid identification and commencement of treatment of patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.