Ethnic Politics, Regime Support and Conflict in Central and Eastern Europe

Ethnicity and ethnic parties have often been portrayed as a threat to political stability. There is also no shortage of conflicts with an ethnic flavor. Yet, this book challenges the notion that the organization of politics in heterogeneous societies should necessarily overcome ethnicity. Rather, descriptive representation of ethnic groups arguably has potential to increase regime support and reduce conflict. The book studies partisan-descriptive representation of up to 130 ethnic groups in central and eastern European democracies. Ethnic minority parties are found to only run and succeed if they can expect electoral support sufficient to pass the electoral threshold. Conditional on gender and strategies of representation, ethnic representation increases satisfaction with democracy among the minority population. While protest rises given moderate levels of representation, it is reduced once ethnic groups have access to executives. In conclusion, a proportional vision of power-sharing between ethnic groups receives some qualified empirical support.

Fossil and non-fossil source contributions to atmospheric carbonaceous aerosols during extreme spring grassland fires in Eastern Europe

In early spring the Baltic region is frequently affected by high-pollution events due to biomass burning in that area. Here we present a comprehensive study to investigate the impact of biomass/grass burning (BB) on the evolution and composition of aerosol in Preila, Lithuania, during springtime open fires. Non-refractory submicron particulate matter (NR-PM1) was measured by an Aerodyne aerosol chemical speciation monitor (ACSM) and a source apportionment with the multilinear engine (ME-2) running the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model was applied to the organic aerosol fraction to investigate the impact of biomass/grass burning. Satellite observations over regions of biomass burning activity supported the results and identification of air mass transport to the area of investigation. Sharp increases in biomass burning tracers, such as levoglucosan up to 683 ngm-3 and black carbon (BC) up to 17 μgm-3 were observed during this period. A further separation between fossil and non-fossil primary and secondary contributions was obtained by coupling ACSM PMF results and radiocarbon (14C) measurements of the elemental (EC) and organic (OC) carbon fractions. Non-fossil organic carbon (OCnf/ was the dominant fraction of PM1, with the primary (POCnf/ and secondary (SOCnf/ fractions contributing 26–44% and 13–23% to the total carbon (TC), respectively. 5–8% of the TC had a primary fossil origin (POCf/, whereas the contribution of fossil secondary organic carbon (SOCf/ was 4–13 %. Nonfossil EC (ECnf/ and fossil EC (ECf/ ranged from 13–24 and 7–13 %, respectively. Isotope ratios of stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes were used to distinguish aerosol particles associated with solid and liquid fossil fuel burning.

Geographical partitioning of goat diversity in Europe and the Middle East

Thirty microsatellite markers were analysed in 1426 goats from 45 traditional or rare breeds in 15 European and Middle Eastern countries. In all populations inbreeding was indicated by heterozygosity deficiency (mean FIS = 0.10). Genetic differentiation between breeds was moderate with a mean FST value of 0.07, but for most (c. 71%) northern and central European breeds, individuals could be assigned to their breeds with a success rate of more than 80%. Bayesian-based clustering analysis of allele frequencies and multivariate analysis revealed at least four discrete clusters: eastern Mediterranean (Middle East), central Mediterranean, western Mediterranean and central/northern Europe. About 41% of the genetic variability among the breeds could be explained by their geographical origin. A decrease in genetic diversity from the south-east to the north-west was accompanied by an increase in the level of differentiation at the breed level. These observations support the hypothesis that domestic livestock migrated from the Middle East towards western and northern Europe and indicate that breed formation was more systematic in north-central Europe than in the Middle East. We propose that breed differentiation and molecular diversity are independent criteria for conservation.

How stable are 20th century calibration models? A high-resolution summer temperature reconstruction for the eastern Swiss Alps back to A.D. 1580 derived from proglacial varved sediments

We found a significant positive correlation between local summer air temperature (May-September) and the annual sediment mass accumulation rate (MAR) in Lake Silvaplana (46°N, 9°E, 1800 m a.s.l.) during the twentieth century (r = 0.69, p < 0.001 for decadal smoothed series). Sediment trap data (2001-2005) confirm this relation with exceptionally high particle yields during the hottest summer of the last 140 years in 2003. On this base we developed a decadal-scale summer temperature reconstruction back to AD 1580. Surprisingly, the comparison of our reconstruction with two other independent regional summer temperature reconstructions (based on tree-rings and documentary data) revealed a significant negative correlation for the pre-1900 data (ie, late ‘Little Ice Age’). This demonstrates that the correlation between MAR and summer temperature is not stable in time and the actualistic principle does not apply in this case. We suggest that different climatic regimes (modern/‘Little Ice Age’) lead to changing state conditions in the catchment and thus to considerably different sediment transport mechanisms. Therefore, we calibrated our MAR data with gridded early instrumental temperature series from AD 1760-1880 (r = -0.48, p < 0.01 for decadal smoothed series) to properly reconstruct the late LIA climatic conditions. We found exceptionally low temperatures between AD 1580 and 1610 (0.75°C below twentieth-century mean) and during the late Maunder Minimum from AD 1680 to 1710 (0.5°C below twentieth-century mean). In general, summer temperatures did not experience major negative departures from the twentieth-century mean during the late ‘Little Ice Age’. This compares well with the two existing independent regional reconstructions suggesting that the LIA in the Alps was mainly a phenomenon of the cold season.

Late Pleistocene glaciation in the Central Andes: Temperature versus humidity control A case study from the eastern Bolivian Andes (17°S) and regional synthesis

A glacier–climate model was used to calculate climatic conditions in a test site on the east Andean slope around Cochabamba (17°S, Bolivia) for the time of the maximum Late Pleistocene glaciation. Results suggest a massive temperature reduction of about − 6.4 °C (+ 1.4/− 1.3 °C), combined with annual precipitation rates of about 1100 mm (+ 570 mm/− 280 mm). This implies no major change in annual precipitation compared with today. Summer precipitation was the source for the humidity in the past, as is the case today. This climate scenario argues for a maximum advance of the paleo-glaciers in the eastern cordillera during the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 20 ka BP), which is confirmed by exposure age dates. In a synthesized view over the central Andes, the results point to an increased summer precipitation-driven Late Glacial (15–10 ka BP) maximum advance in the western part of the Altiplano (18°S–23°S), a temperature-driven maximum advance during full glacial times (LGM) in the eastern cordillera, and a pre- and post-LGM (32 ka BP/14 ka BP) maximum advance around 30°S related to increased precipitation and reduced temperature on the western slope of the Andes. The results indicate the importance of understanding the seasonality and details of the mass balance–climate interaction in order to disentangle drivers for the observed regionally asynchronous past glaciations in the central Andes.

Provenance discrimination of Lower Cretaceous synrift sandstones (eastern Iberian Chain Spain) Constraints from detrital modes heavy minerals and geochemistry

Petrography, geochemical whole-rock composition, and chemical analyses of tourmaline were performed in order to determine the source areas of Lower Cretaceous Mora, El Castellar, and uppermost Camarillas Formation sandstones from the Iberian Chain, Spain. Sandstones were deposited in intraplate subbasins, which are bound by plutonic and volcanic rocks of Permian, Triassic, and Jurassic age, Paleozoic metamorphic rocks, and Triassic sedimentary rocks. Modal analyses together with petrographic and cathodoluminescence observations allowed us to define three quartz-feldspathic petrofacies and recognize diagenetic processes that modified the original framework composition. Results from average restored petrofacies are: Mora petrofacies = P/F >1 and Q(r)70 F(r)22 R(r)9; El Castellar petrofacies = P/F >1 and Q(r)57 F(r)25 R(r)18; and Camarillas petrofacies = P/F ∼ zero and Q(r)64 F(r)28 R(r)7 (P—plagioclase; F—feldspar; Q—quartz; R—rock fragments; r—restored composition). Trace-element and rare earth element abundances of whole-rock analyses discriminate well between the three petrofacies based on: (1) the Rb concentration, which is indicative of the K content and reflects the amount of K-feldspar modal abundance, and (2) the relative modal abundance of heavy minerals (tourmaline, zircon, titanite, and apatite), which is reproduced by the elements hosted in the observed heavy mineral assemblage (i.e., B and Li for tourmaline; Zr, Hf, and Ta for zircon; Ti, Ta, Nb, and their rare earth elements for titanite; and P, Y, and their rare earth elements for apatite). Tourmaline chemical composition for the three petrofacies ranges from Fe-tourmaline of granitic to Mg-tourmaline of metamorphic origin. The three defined petrofacies suggest a mixed provenance from plutonic and metamorphic source rocks. However, a progressively major influence of granitic source rocks was detected from the lowermost Mora petrofacies toward the uppermost Camarillas petrofacies. This provenance trend is consistent with the uplift and erosion of the Iberian Massif, which coincided with the development of the latest Berriasian synrift regional unconformity and affected all of the Iberian intraplate basins. The uplifting stage of Iberian Massif pluton caused a significant dilution of Paleozoic metamorphic source areas, which were dominant during the sedimentation of the lowermost Mora and El Castellar petrofacies. The association of petrographic data with whole-rock geochemical compositions and tourmaline chemical analysis has proved to be useful for determining source area characteristics, their predominance, and the evolution of source rock types during the deposition of quartz-feldspathic sandstones in intraplate basins. This approach ensures that provenance interpretation is consistent with the geological context.

Were last glacial climate events simultaneous between Greenland and western Europe?

During the last glacial period, several large abrupt climate fluctuations took place on the Greenland ice cap and elsewhere. Often these Dansgaard/Oeschger events are assumed to have been synchronous, and then used as tie-points to link chronologies between the proxy archives. However, if temporally separate events are lumped into one illusionary event, climatic interpretations of the tuned events will obviously be flawed. Here, we compare Dansgaard/Oeschger-type events in a well-dated record from south-eastern France with those in Greenland ice cores. Instead of assuming simultaneous climate events between both archives, we keep their age models independent. Even these well-dated archives possess large chronological uncertainties, that prevent us from inferring synchronous climate events at decadal to multi-centennial time scales. If possible, tuning of proxy archives should be avoided.