Current and future variations of nutrient depositions and influences on tree growth

Current nutrient deposition shows episodic variations which likely may impact the local nutrient cycle at the RBSF. Comparing analyses of deposition data during present-day atmospheric circulation and phases of high biomass burning in the Amazon, characteristic relationships between remote emissions and local deposition are determined. By using projections drawn from the special report on emission scenarios (SRES) in combination with a trajectory modeling tool, future nutrient deposition conditions of the mountain ecosystem are assessed. Observations of relations between climatic variables, current time series of nutrient deposition, and tree growth point to an impact of the remote fertilization effect of atmospheric matters, emitted primarily by human activities like biomass burning and agricultural and industrial sources. The increasing emissions in the future may have adverse effects on the ecosystem in the long run.

Central European hardwood trees in a high-CO 2 future: synthesis of an 8-year forest canopy CO 2 enrichment project

Rapidly increasing atmospheric CO2 is not only changing the climate system but may also affect the biosphere directly through stimulation of plant growth and ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycling. Although forest ecosystems play a critical role in the global carbon cycle, experimental information on forest responses to rising CO2 is scarce, due to the sheer size of trees. Here, we present a synthesis of the only study world-wide where a diverse set of mature broadleaved trees growing in a natural forest has been exposed to future atmospheric CO2 levels (c. 550ppm) by free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE). We show that litter production, leaf traits and radial growth across the studied hardwood species remained unaffected by elevated CO2 over 8years. CO2 enrichment reduced tree water consumption resulting in detectable soil moisture savings. Soil air CO2 and dissolved inorganic carbon both increased suggesting enhanced below-ground activity. Carbon release to the rhizosphere and/or higher soil moisture primed nitrification and nitrate leaching under elevated CO2; however, the export of dissolved organic carbon remained unaltered.Synthesis. Our findings provide no evidence for carbon-limitation in five central European hardwood trees at current ambient CO2 concentrations. The results of this long-term study challenge the idea of a universal CO2 fertilization effect on forests, as commonly assumed in climate-carbon cycle models.

A model-data comparison of Holocene timberline changes in the Swiss Alps reveals past and future drivers of mountain forest dynamics

Mountain vegetation is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift upwards with climate change. Dynamic vegetation models are often used to assess the impact of climate on vegetation and model output can be compared with paleobotanical data as a reality check. Recent paleoecological studies have revealed regional variation in the upward shift of timberlines in the Northern and Central European Alps in response to rapid warming at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition ca. 11700years ago, probably caused by a climatic gradient across the Alps. This contrasts with previous studies that successfully simulated the early Holocene afforestation in the (warmer) Central Alps with a chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction from the (colder) Northern Alps. We use LandClim, a dynamic landscape vegetation model to simulate mountain forests under different temperature, soil and precipitation scenarios around Iffigsee (2065m a.s.l.) a lake in the Northwestern Swiss Alps, and compare the model output with the paleobotanical records. The model clearly overestimates the upward shift of timberline in a climate scenario that applies chironomid-inferred July-temperature anomalies to all months. However, forest establishment at 9800 cal. BP at Iffigsee is successfully simulated with lower moisture availability and monthly temperatures corrected for stronger seasonality during the early Holocene. The model-data comparison reveals a contraction in the realized niche of Abies alba due to the prominent role of anthropogenic disturbance after ca. 5000 cal. BP, which has important implications for species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on equilibrium with climate and niche stability. Under future climate projections, LandClim indicates a rapid upward shift of mountain vegetation belts by ca. 500m and treeline positions of ca. 2500m a.s.l. by the end of this century. Resulting biodiversity losses in the alpine vegetation belt might be mitigated with low-impact pastoralism to preserve species-rich alpine meadows.

A glimpse into the future composition of marine phytoplankton communities

It is expected that climate change will have significant impacts on ecosystems. Most model projections agree that the ocean will experience stronger stratification and less nutrient supply from deep waters. These changes will likely affect marine phytoplankton communities and will thus impact on the higher trophic levels of the oceanic food web. The potential consequences of future climate change on marine microbial communities can be investigated and predicted only with the help of mathematical models. Here we present the application of a model that describes aggregate properties of marine phytoplankton communities and captures the effects of a changing environment on their composition and adaptive capacity. Specifically, the model describes the phytoplankton community in terms of total biomass, mean cell size, and functional diversity. The model is applied to two contrasting regions of the Atlantic Ocean (tropical and temperate) and is tested under two emission scenarios: SRES A2 or “business as usual” and SRES B1 or “local utopia.” We find that all three macroecological properties will decline during the next century in both regions, although this effect will be more pronounced in the temperate region. Being consistent with previous model predictions, our results show that a simple trait-based modeling framework represents a valuable tool for investigating how phytoplankton communities may reorganize under a changing climate.

Current aspects and future prospects of total anorectal reconstruction - a critical and comprehensive review of the literature

PURPOSE: Many rectal cancer patients undergo abdominoperineal excision worldwide every year. Various procedures to restore perineal (pseudo-) continence, referred to as total anorectal reconstruction, have been proposed. The best technique, however, has not yet been defined. In this study, the different reconstruction techniques with regard to morbidity, functional outcome and quality of life were analysed. Technical and timing issues (i.e. whether the definitive procedure should be performed synchronously or be delayed), oncological safety, economical aspects as well as possible future improvements are further discussed. METHODS: A MEDLINE and EMBASE search was conducted to identify the pertinent multilingual literature between 1989 and 2013. All publications meeting the defined inclusion/exclusion criteria were eligible for analysis. RESULTS: Dynamic graciloplasty, artificial bowel sphincter, circular smooth muscle cuff or gluteoplasty result in median resting and squeezing neo-anal pressures that equate to the measurements found in incontinent patients. However, quality of life was generally stated to be good by patients who had undergone the procedures, despite imperfect continence, faecal evacuation problems and a considerable associated morbidity. Many patients developed an alternative perception for the urge to defecate that decisively improved functional outcome. Theoretical calculations suggested cost-effectiveness of total anorectal reconstruction compared well to life with a permanent colostomy. CONCLUSIONS: Many patients would be highly motivated to have their abdominal replaced by a functional perineal colostomy. Given the considerable morbidity and questionable functional outcome of current reconstruction technique improvements are required. Tissue engineering might be an option to design an anatomically and physiologically matured, and customised continence organ.

Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling–Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe.