Using scenario tree modelling for targeted herd sampling to substantiate freedom from disease

BACKGROUND: In order to optimise the cost-effectiveness of active surveillance to substantiate freedom from disease, a new approach using targeted sampling of farms was developed and applied on the example of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) and enzootic bovine leucosis (EBL) in Switzerland. Relevant risk factors (RF) for the introduction of IBR and EBL into Swiss cattle farms were identified and their relative risks defined based on literature review and expert opinions. A quantitative model based on the scenario tree method was subsequently used to calculate the required sample size of a targeted sampling approach (TS) for a given sensitivity. We compared the sample size with that of a stratified random sample (sRS) with regard to efficiency. RESULTS: The required sample sizes to substantiate disease freedom were 1,241 farms for IBR and 1,750 farms for EBL to detect 0.2% herd prevalence with 99% sensitivity. Using conventional sRS, the required sample sizes were 2,259 farms for IBR and 2,243 for EBL. Considering the additional administrative expenses required for the planning of TS, the risk-based approach was still more cost-effective than a sRS (40% reduction on the full survey costs for IBR and 8% for EBL) due to the considerable reduction in sample size. CONCLUSIONS: As the model depends on RF selected through literature review and was parameterised with values estimated by experts, it is subject to some degree of uncertainty. Nevertheless, this approach provides the veterinary authorities with a promising tool for future cost-effective sampling designs.

A study to demonstrate freedom of Trichinella spp. in domestic pigs in Switzerland

Trichinellosis is a food-borne zoonotic disease caused by the nematode Trichinella spp. Many omnivorous and carnivorous animal species can act as host for this parasite, including domestic pigs. To protect public health, it should be ensured that pork should not contain infective Trichinella larvae. Surveillance for Trichinella spp. can be done using direct (larval detection) and indirect (antibody detection) diagnostic techniques. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the absence of infection in Swiss domestic pigs. An ELISA was used as the initial screening test, and sera reacting in ELISA were further investigated using both a Western blot for serology and an artificial digestion test with 20 g of diaphragm tissue for larval detection. A total of 7412 adult pigs, 9973 finishing pigs and 2779 free-ranging pigs were tested. Samples from 17 (0.23%) adult pigs, 16 (0.16%) finishing pigs and nine (0.32%) free-ranging pigs were ELISA-positive, but all of these sera were subsequently negative by Western blot and by the artificial digestion method. Based on these findings, an absence of Trichinella infections in adult pigs (target prevalence 0.04%) and finishing pigs (target prevalence 0.03%) can be concluded. The results also demonstrated that the prevalence of Trichinella infections does not exceed 0.11% in free-ranging pigs, the group with the highest risk of exposure.