Predictors of thromboprophylaxis in hospitalised medical patients. Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE).

Both, underuse and overuse of thromboprophylaxis in hospitalised medical patients is common. We aimed to explore clinical factors associated with the use of pharmacological or mechanical thromboprophylaxis in acutely ill medical patients at high (Geneva Risk Score ≥ 3 points) vs low (Geneva Risk Score < 3 points) risk of venous thromboembolism. Overall, 1,478 hospitalised medical patients from eight large Swiss hospitals were enrolled in the prospective Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE) cohort study. The study is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01277536. Thromboprophylaxis increased stepwise with increasing Geneva Risk Score (p< 0.001). Among the 962 high-risk patients, 366 (38 %) received no thromboprophylaxis; cancer-associated thrombocytopenia (OR 4.78, 95 % CI 2.75-8.31, p< 0.001), active bleeding on admission (OR 2.88, 95 % CI 1.69-4.92, p< 0.001), and thrombocytopenia without cancer (OR 2.54, 95 % CI 1.31-4.95, p=0.006) were independently associated with the absence of prophylaxis. The use of thromboprophylaxis declined with increasing severity of thrombocytopenia (p=0.001). Among the 516 low-risk patients, 245 (48 %) received thromboprophylaxis; none of the investigated clinical factors predicted its use. In conclusion, in acutely ill medical patients, bleeding and thrombocytopenia were the most important factors for the absence of thromboprophylaxis among high-risk patients. The use of thromboprophylaxis among low-risk patients was inconsistent, without clearly identifiable predictors, and should be addressed in further research.

Model for ranking freshwater fish farms according to their risk of infection and illustration for viral haemorrhagic septicaemia

We developed a model to calculate a quantitative risk score for individual aquaculture sites. The score indicates the risk of the site being infected with a specific fish pathogen (viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV); infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus, Koi herpes virus), and is intended to be used for risk ranking sites to support surveillance for demonstration of zone or member state freedom from these pathogens. The inputs to the model include a range of quantitative and qualitative estimates of risk factors organised into five risk themes (1) Live fish and egg movements; (2) Exposure via water; (3) On-site processing; (4) Short-distance mechanical transmission; (5) Distance-independent mechanical transmission. The calculated risk score for an individual aquaculture site is a value between zero and one and is intended to indicate the risk of a site relative to the risk of other sites (thereby allowing ranking). The model was applied to evaluate 76 rainbow trout farms in 3 countries (42 from England, 32 from Italy and 2 from Switzerland) with the aim to establish their risk of being infected with VHSV. Risk scores for farms in England and Italy showed great variation, clearly enabling ranking. Scores ranged from 0.002 to 0.254 (mean score 0.080) in England and 0.011 to 0.778 (mean of 0.130) for Italy, reflecting the diversity of infection status of farms in these countries. Requirements for broader application of the model are discussed. Cost efficient farm data collection is important to realise the benefits from a risk-based approach.

Association of nutritional risk and adverse medical outcomes across different medical inpatient populations

OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of nutritional risk and its association with multiple adverse clinical outcomes in a large cohort of acutely ill medical inpatients from a Swiss tertiary care hospital. METHODS We prospectively followed consecutive adult medical inpatients for 30 d. Multivariate regression models were used to investigate the association of the initial Nutritional Risk Score (NRS 2002) with mortality, impairment in activities of daily living (Barthel Index <95 points), hospital length of stay, hospital readmission rates, and quality of life (QoL; adapted from EQ5 D); all parameters were measured at 30 d. RESULTS Of 3186 patients (mean age 71 y, 44.7% women), 887 (27.8%) were at risk for malnutrition with an NRS ≥3 points. We found strong associations (odds ratio/hazard ratio [OR/HR], 95% confidence interval [CI]) between nutritional risk and mortality (OR/HR, 7.82; 95% CI, 6.04-10.12), impaired Barthel Index (OR/HR, 2.56; 95% CI, 2.12-3.09), time to hospital discharge (OR/HR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.43-0.52), hospital readmission (OR/HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.08-1.97), and all five dimensions of QoL measures. Associations remained significant after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, and medical diagnoses. Results were robust in subgroup analysis with evidence of effect modification (P for interaction < 0.05) based on age and main diagnosis groups. CONCLUSION Nutritional risk is significant in acutely ill medical inpatients and is associated with increased medical resource use, adverse clinical outcomes, and impairments in functional ability and QoL. Randomized trials are needed to evaluate evidence-based preventive and treatment strategies focusing on nutritional factors to improve outcomes in these high-risk patients.

Evaluation of farm-level parameters derived from animal movements for use in risk-based surveillance programmes of cattle in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: This study focused on the descriptive analysis of cattle movements and farm-level parameters derived from cattle movements, which are considered to be generically suitable for risk-based surveillance systems in Switzerland for diseases where animal movements constitute an important risk pathway. METHODS: A framework was developed to select farms for surveillance based on a risk score summarizing 5 parameters. The proposed framework was validated using data from the bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) surveillance programme in 2013. RESULTS: A cumulative score was calculated per farm, including the following parameters; the maximum monthly ingoing contact chain (in 2012), the average number of animals per incoming movement, use of mixed alpine pastures and the number of weeks in 2012 a farm had movements registered. The final score for the farm depended on the distribution of the parameters. Different cut offs; 50, 90, 95 and 99%, were explored. The final scores ranged between 0 and 5. Validation of the scores against results from the BVD surveillance programme 2013 gave promising results for setting the cut off for each of the five selected farm level criteria at the 50th percentile. Restricting testing to farms with a score ≥ 2 would have resulted in the same number of detected BVD positive farms as testing all farms, i.e., the outcome of the 2013 surveillance programme could have been reached with a smaller survey. CONCLUSIONS: The seasonality and time dependency of the activity of single farms in the networks requires a careful assessment of the actual time period included to determine farm level criteria. However, selecting farms in the sample for risk-based surveillance can be optimized with the proposed scoring system. The system was validated using data from the BVD eradication program. The proposed method is a promising framework for the selection of farms according to the risk of infection based on animal movements.

Contribution of Genetic Background and Clinical Risk Factors to Low-Trauma Fractures in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-Positive Persons: The Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

Background.  The impact of human genetic background on low-trauma fracture (LTF) risk has not been evaluated in the context of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and clinical LTF risk factors. Methods.  In the general population, 6 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associate with LTF through genome-wide association study. Using genome-wide SNP arrays and imputation, we genotyped these SNPs in HIV-positive, white Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants. We included 103 individuals with a first, physician-validated LTF and 206 controls matched on gender, whose duration of observation and whose antiretroviral therapy start dates were similar using incidence density sampling. Analyses of nongenetic LTF risk factors were based on 158 cases and 788 controls. Results.  A genetic risk score built from the 6 LTF-associated SNPs did not associate with LTF risk, in both models including and not including parental hip fracture history. The contribution of clinical LTF risk factors was limited in our dataset. Conclusions.  Genetic LTF markers with a modest effect size in the general population do not improve fracture prediction in persons with HIV, in whom clinical LTF risk factors are prevalent in both cases and controls.

Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in Switzerland: a comprehensive quality control report on centre effect

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY / PRINCIPLES: Interest groups advocate centre-specific outcome data as a useful tool for patients in choosing a hospital for their treatment and for decision-making by politicians and the insurance industry. Haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) requires significant infrastructure and represents a cost-intensive procedure. It therefore qualifies as a prime target for such a policy. METHODS: We made use of the comprehensive database of the Swiss Blood Stem Cells Transplant Group (SBST) to evaluate potential use of mortality rates. Nine institutions reported a total of 4717 HSCT - 1427 allogeneic (30.3%), 3290 autologous (69.7%) - in 3808 patients between the years 1997 and 2008. Data were analysed for survival- and transplantation-related mortality (TRM) at day 100 and at 5 years. RESULTS: The data showed marked and significant differences between centres in unadjusted analyses. These differences were absent or marginal when the results were adjusted for disease, year of transplant and the EBMT risk score (a score incorporating patient age, disease stage, time interval between diagnosis and transplantation, and, for allogeneic transplants, donor type and donor-recipient gender combination) in a multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate comparable quality among centres in Switzerland. They show that comparison of crude centre-specific outcome data without adjustment for the patient mix may be misleading. Mandatory data collection and systematic review of all cases within a comprehensive quality management system might, in contrast, serve as a model to ascertain the quality of other cost-intensive therapies in Switzerland.

Postpartal recurrent non-ST elevation myocardial infarction in essential thrombocythaemia: case report and review of the literature

ABSTRACT: Normal pregnancy corresponds to a procoagulant state. Acute myocardial infarction during pregnancy is rare, yet considering the low non-pregnant risk score of childbearing women it is still surprisingly frequent. We report a case of postpartum recurrent non-ST elevation myocardial infarction in a 40-year-old caucasian woman with essential thrombocythaemia in the presence of a positive JAK-2 mutation and an elevated anti-cardiolipin IgM antibody titer. In the majority of cases of myocardial infarction in pregnancy or in the peripartal period, atherosclerosis, a thrombus or coronary artery dissection is observed. The combination of essential thrombocythaemia and elevated anti-cardiolipin IgM antibody titer in the presence of several cardiovascular risk factors seems to be causative in our case. In conclusion, with the continuing trend of childbearing at older ages, rare or unlikely conditions leading to severe events such as myocardial infarction must be considered in pregnant women.

Adipocytokines, hepatic and inflammatory biomarkers and incidence of type 2 diabetes. the CoLaus study

Context There is contradictory information regarding the prognostic importance of adipocytokines, hepatic and inflammatory biomarkers on the incidence of type 2 diabetes. The objective was to assess the prognostic relevance of adipocytokine and inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein – CRP; interleukin-1beta – IL-1β; interleukin-6– IL-6; tumour necrosis factor-α – TNF-α; leptin and adiponectin) and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (γGT) on the incidence of type 2 diabetes. Methods Prospective, population-based study including 3,842 non-diabetic participants (43.3% men, age range 35 to 75 years), followed for an average of 5.5 years (2003–2008). The endpoint was the occurrence of type 2 diabetes. Results 208 participants (5.4%, 66 women) developed type 2 diabetes during follow-up. On univariate analysis, participants who developed type 2 diabetes had significantly higher baseline levels of IL-6, CRP, leptin and γGT, and lower levels of adiponectin than participants who remained free of type 2 diabetes. After adjusting for a validated type 2 diabetes risk score, only the associations with adiponectin: Odds Ratio and (95% confidence interval): 0.97 (0.64–1.47), 0.84 (0.55–1.30) and 0.64 (0.40–1.03) for the second, third and forth gender-specific quartiles respectively, remained significant (P-value for trend = 0.05). Adding each marker to a validated type 2 diabetes risk score (including age, family history of type 2 diabetes, height, waist circumference, resting heart rate, presence of hypertension, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, fasting glucose and serum uric acid) did not improve the area under the ROC or the net reclassification index; similar findings were obtained when the markers were combined, when the markers were used as continuous (log-transformed) variables or when gender-specific quartiles were used. Conclusion Decreased adiponectin levels are associated with an increased risk for incident type 2 diabetes, but they seem to add little information regarding the risk of developing type 2 diabetes to a validated risk score.

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation: patient selection

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is a disruptive technology as it satisfies a previously unmet need which is associated with a profound therapeutic benefit. In randomized clinical trials, TAVI has been shown to improve survival compared with medical treatment among patients considered not suitable candidates for surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR), and to provide similar outcomes as SAVR in selected high-risk patients. Currently, TAVI is limited to selected elderly patients with symptomatic severe aortic stenosis. As this patient population frequently suffers from comorbid conditions, which may influence outcomes, the selection of patients to undergo TAVI underlies a complex decision process. Several clinical risk score algorithms are routinely used, although they fall short to fully appreciate the true risk among patients currently referred for TAVI. Beyond traditional risk scores, the clinical assessment by an interdisciplinary Heart Team as well as detailed imaging of the aortic valve, aortic root, descending and abdominal aorta as well as peripheral vasculature are important prerequisites to plan a successful procedure. This review will familiarize the reader with the concepts of the interdisciplinary Heart team, risk scores as well as the most important imaging algorithms suited to select appropriate TAVI patients.

Cortisol levels and history of depression in acute coronary syndrome patients

BACKGROUND: Depressed mood following an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a risk factor for future cardiac morbidity. Hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis dysregulation is associated with depression, and may be a process through which depressive symptoms influence later cardiac health. Additionally, a history of depression predicts depressive symptoms in the weeks following ACS. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a history of depression and/or current depression are associated with the HPA axis dysregulation following ACS. METHOD: A total of 152 cardiac patients completed a structured diagnostic interview, a standardized depression questionnaire and a cortisol profile over the day, 3 weeks after an ACS. Cortisol was analysed using: the cortisol awakening response (CAR), total cortisol output estimated using the area under the curve method, and the slope of cortisol decline over the day. RESULTS: Total cortisol output was positively associated with history of depression, after adjustment for age, gender, marital status, ethnicity, smoking status, body mass index (BMI), Global Registry of Acute Cardiac Events (GRACE) risk score, days in hospital, medication with statins and antiplatelet compounds, and current depression score. Men with clinically diagnosed depression after ACS showed a blunted CAR, but the CAR was not related to a history of depression. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with a history of depression showed increased total cortisol output, but this is unlikely to be responsible for associations between depression after ACS and later cardiac morbidity. However, the blunted CAR in patients with severe depression following ACS indicates that HPA dysregulation is present.

Impact of miR-21, miR-126 and miR-221 as prognostic factors of clear cell renal cell carcinoma with tumor thrombus of the inferior vena cava

Clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) characterized by a tumor thrombus (TT) extending into the inferior vena cava (IVC) generally indicates poor prognosis. Nevertheless, the risk for tumor recurrence after nephrectomy and thrombectomy varies. An applicable and accurate prediction system to select ccRCC patients with TT of the IVC (ccRCC/TT) at high risk after nephrectomy is urgently needed, but has not been established up to now. To our knowledge, a possible role of microRNAs (miRs) for the development of ccRCC/TT or their impact as prognostic markers in ccRCC/TT has not been explored yet. Therefore, we analyzed the expression of the previously described onco-miRs miR-200c, miR-210, miR-126, miR-221, let-7b, miR-21, miR-143 and miR-141 in a study collective of 74 ccRCC patients. Using the expression profiles of these eight miRs we developed classification systems that accurately differentiate ccRCC from non-cancerous renal tissue and ccRCC/TT from tumors without TT. In the subgroup of 37 ccRCC/TT cases we found that miR-21, miR-126, and miR-221 predicted cancer related death (CRD) accurately and independently from other clinico-pathological features. Furthermore, a combined risk score based on the expression of miR-21, miR-126 and miR-221 was developed and showed high sensitivity and specificity to predict cancer specific survival (CSS) in ccRCC/TT. Using the combined risk score we were able to classify ccRCC/TT patients correctly into high and low risk cases. The risk stratification by the combined risk score (CRS) will benefit from further cohort validation and might have potential for clinical application as a molecular prediction system to identify high- risk ccRCC/TT patients.

Combination of expression levels of miR-21 and miR-126 is associated with cancer-specific survival in clear-cell renal cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is marked by high mortality rate. To date, no robust risk stratification by clinical or molecular prognosticators of cancer-specific survival (CSS) has been established for early stages. Transcriptional profiling of small non-coding RNA gene products (miRNAs) seems promising for prognostic stratification. The expression of miR-21 and miR-126 was analysed in a large cohort of RCC patients; a combined risk score (CRS)-model was constructed based on expression levels of both miRNAs. METHODS Expression of miR-21 and miR-126 was evaluated by qRT-PCR in tumour and adjacent non-neoplastic tissue in n = 139 clear cell RCC patients. Relation of miR-21 and miR-126 expression with various clinical parameters was assessed. Parameters were analysed by uni- and multivariate COX regression. A factor derived from the z-score resulting from the COX model was determined for both miRs separately and a combined risk score (CRS) was calculated multiplying the relative expression of miR-21 and miR-126 by this factor. The best fitting COX model was selected by relative goodness-of-fit with the Akaike information criterion (AIC). RESULTS RCC with and without miR-21 up- and miR-126 downregulation differed significantly in synchronous metastatic status and CSS. Upregulation of miR-21 and downregulation of miR-126 were independently prognostic. A combined risk score (CRS) based on the expression of both miRs showed high sensitivity and specificity in predicting CSS and prediction was independent from any other clinico-pathological parameter. Association of CRS with CSS was successfully validated in a testing cohort containing patients with high and low risk for progressive disease. CONCLUSIONS A combined expression level of miR-21 and miR-126 accurately predicted CSS in two independent RCC cohorts and seems feasible for clinical application in assessing prognosis.

Association of electrocardiogram abnormalities and incident heart failure events

BACKGROUND Unless effective preventive strategies are implemented, aging of the population will result in a significant worsening of the heart failure (HF) epidemic. Few data exist on whether baseline electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities can refine risk prediction for HF. METHODS We examined a prospective cohort of 2,915 participants aged 70 to 79 years without preexisting HF, enrolled between April 1997 and June 1998 in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study. Minnesota Code was used to define major and minor ECG abnormalities at baseline and at year 4 follow-up. Using Cox models, we assessed (1) the association between ECG abnormalities and incident HF and (2) the incremental value of adding ECG to the Health ABC HF Risk Score using the net reclassification index. RESULTS At baseline, 380 participants (13.0%) had minor, and 620 (21.3%) had major ECG abnormalities. During a median follow-up of 11.4 years, 485 participants (16.6%) developed incident HF. After adjusting for the Health ABC HF Risk Score variables, the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.27 (95% CI 0.96-1.68) for minor and 1.99 (95% CI 1.61-2.44) for major ECG abnormalities. At year 4, 263 participants developed new and 549 had persistent abnormalities; both were associated with increased subsequent HF risk (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.38-2.72 for new and HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.82-3.02 for persistent ECG abnormalities). Baseline ECG correctly reclassified 10.5% of patients with HF events, 0.8% of those without HF events, and 1.4% of the overall population. The net reclassification index across the Health ABC HF risk categories was 0.11 (95% CI 0.03-0.19). CONCLUSIONS Among older adults, baseline and new ECG abnormalities are independently associated with increased risk of HF. The contribution of ECG screening for targeted prevention of HF should be evaluated in clinical trials.

Distinct characteristics of e13a2 versus e14a2 BCR-ABL1 driven chronic myeloid leukemia under first-line therapy with imatinib

The vast majority of chronic myeloid leukemia patients express a BCR-ABL1 fusion gene mRNA encoding a 210 kDa tyrosine kinase which promotes leukemic transformation. A possible differential impact of the corresponding BCR-ABL1 transcript variants e13a2 ("b2a2") and e14a2 ("b3a2") on disease phenotype and outcome is still a subject of debate. A total of 1105 newly diagnosed imatinib-treated patients were analyzed according to transcript type at diagnosis (e13a2, n=451; e14a2, n=496; e13a2+e14a2, n=158). No differences regarding age, sex, or Euro risk score were observed. A significant difference was found between e13a2 and e14a2 when comparing white blood cells (88 vs. 65 × 10(9)/L, respectively; P<0.001) and platelets (296 vs. 430 × 10(9)/L, respectively; P<0.001) at diagnosis, indicating a distinct disease phenotype. No significant difference was observed regarding other hematologic features, including spleen size and hematologic adverse events, during imatinib-based therapies. Cumulative molecular response was inferior in e13a2 patients (P=0.002 for major molecular response; P<0.001 for MR4). No difference was observed with regard to cytogenetic response and overall survival. In conclusion, e13a2 and e14a2 chronic myeloid leukemia seem to represent distinct biological entities. However, clinical outcome under imatinib treatment was comparable and no risk prediction can be made according to e13a2 versus e14a2 BCR-ABL1 transcript type at diagnosis. (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:00055874).

Reliable prediction of clinical outcome in patients with chronic HCV infection and compensated advanced hepatic fibrosis: a validated model using objective and readily available clinical parameters.

OBJECTIVE Reliable tools to predict long-term outcome among patients with well compensated advanced liver disease due to chronic HCV infection are lacking. DESIGN Risk scores for mortality and for cirrhosis-related complications were constructed with Cox regression analysis in a derivation cohort and evaluated in a validation cohort, both including patients with chronic HCV infection and advanced fibrosis. RESULTS In the derivation cohort, 100/405 patients died during a median 8.1 (IQR 5.7-11.1) years of follow-up. Multivariate Cox analyses showed age (HR=1.06, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.09, p<0.001), male sex (HR=1.91, 95% CI 1.10 to 3.29, p=0.021), platelet count (HR=0.91, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.95, p<0.001) and log10 aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio (HR=1.30, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.51, p=0.001) were independently associated with mortality (C statistic=0.78, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.83). In the validation cohort, 58/296 patients with cirrhosis died during a median of 6.6 (IQR 4.4-9.0) years. Among patients with estimated 5-year mortality risks <5%, 5-10% and >10%, the observed 5-year mortality rates in the derivation cohort and validation cohort were 0.9% (95% CI 0.0 to 2.7) and 2.6% (95% CI 0.0 to 6.1), 8.1% (95% CI 1.8 to 14.4) and 8.0% (95% CI 1.3 to 14.7), 21.8% (95% CI 13.2 to 30.4) and 20.9% (95% CI 13.6 to 28.1), respectively (C statistic in validation cohort = 0.76, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.83). The risk score for cirrhosis-related complications also incorporated HCV genotype (C statistic = 0.80, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.83 in the derivation cohort; and 0.74, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.79 in the validation cohort). CONCLUSIONS Prognosis of patients with chronic HCV infection and compensated advanced liver disease can be accurately assessed with risk scores including readily available objective clinical parameters.