Cost-effectiveness of percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with stable coronary artery disease and abnormal fractional flow reserve

BACKGROUND The Fractional Flow Reserve Versus Angiography for Multivessel Evaluation (FAME) 2 trial demonstrated a significant reduction in subsequent coronary revascularization among patients with stable angina and at least 1 coronary lesion with a fractional flow reserve ≤0.80 who were randomized to percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) compared with best medical therapy. The economic and quality-of-life implications of PCI in the setting of an abnormal fractional flow reserve are unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS We calculated the cost of the index hospitalization based on initial resource use and follow-up costs based on Medicare reimbursements. We assessed patient utility using the EQ-5D health survey with US weights at baseline and 1 month and projected quality-adjusted life-years assuming a linear decline over 3 years in the 1-month utility improvements. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio based on cumulative costs over 12 months. Initial costs were significantly higher for PCI in the setting of an abnormal fractional flow reserve than with medical therapy ($9927 versus $3900, P<0.001), but the $6027 difference narrowed over 1-year follow-up to $2883 (P<0.001), mostly because of the cost of subsequent revascularization procedures. Patient utility was improved more at 1 month with PCI than with medical therapy (0.054 versus 0.001 units, P<0.001). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of PCI was $36 000 per quality-adjusted life-year, which was robust in bootstrap replications and in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS PCI of coronary lesions with reduced fractional flow reserve improves outcomes and appears economically attractive compared with best medical therapy among patients with stable angina.

Short communication: Fractional milking distribution of immunoglobulin G and other constituents in colostrum.

The provision of quality colostrum with a high concentration of immunoglobulins is critical for newborn calf health. Because first colostrum may be low in overall concentration to effectively reduce the risk of newborn infections, we tested equivalent milking fractions of colostrum for possible IgG differences. The objective of this study was to determine if the fractional composition of colostrum changes during the course of milking with a focus on immunoglobulins. Twenty-four Holstein and Simmental cows were milked (first colostrum) within 4h after calving. The colostrum of 1 gland per animal was assembled into 4 percentage fractions over the course of milking: 0 to 25%, 25 to 50%, 50 to 75%, and 75 to 100%. The IgG concentration among the various fractions did not change in any significant pattern. Concentration of protein, casein, lactose and somatic cell count remained the same or exhibited only minor changes during the course of fractional milking colostrum. We determined that no benefit exists in feeding any particular fraction of colostrum to the newborn.

IMILAST: A community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset - the period 1989-2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of weak cyclones, and distribution in some densely populated regions. Consistency between methods is better for strong cyclones than for shallow ones. Two case studies of relatively large, intense cyclones reveal that the identification of the most intense part of the life cycle of these events is robust between methods, but considerable differences exist during the development and the dissolution phases.

Non-exponential return time distributions for vorticity extremes explained by fractional Poisson processes

Serial correlation of extreme midlatitude cyclones observed at the storm track exits is explained by deviations from a Poisson process. To model these deviations, we apply fractional Poisson processes (FPPs) to extreme midlatitude cyclones, which are defined by the 850 hPa relative vorticity of the ERA interim reanalysis during boreal winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. Extremes are defined by a 99% quantile threshold in the grid-point time series. In general, FPPs are based on long-term memory and lead to non-exponential return time distributions. The return times are described by a Weibull distribution to approximate the Mittag–Leffler function in the FPPs. The Weibull shape parameter yields a dispersion parameter that agrees with results found for midlatitude cyclones. The memory of the FPP, which is determined by detrended fluctuation analysis, provides an independent estimate for the shape parameter. Thus, the analysis exhibits a concise framework of the deviation from Poisson statistics (by a dispersion parameter), non-exponential return times and memory (correlation) on the basis of a single parameter. The results have potential implications for the predictability of extreme cyclones.

Adaptive Algorithms for Personalized Diabetes Treatment

Dynamic systems, especially in real-life applications, are often determined by inter-/intra-variability, uncertainties and time-varying components. Physiological systems are probably the most representative example in which population variability, vital signal measurement noise and uncertain dynamics render their explicit representation and optimization a rather difficult task. Systems characterized by such challenges often require the use of adaptive algorithmic solutions able to perform an iterative structural and/or parametrical update process towards optimized behavior. Adaptive optimization presents the advantages of (i) individualization through learning of basic system characteristics, (ii) ability to follow time-varying dynamics and (iii) low computational cost. In this chapter, the use of online adaptive algorithms is investigated in two basic research areas related to diabetes management: (i) real-time glucose regulation and (ii) real-time prediction of hypo-/hyperglycemia. The applicability of these methods is illustrated through the design and development of an adaptive glucose control algorithm based on reinforcement learning and optimal control and an adaptive, personalized early-warning system for the recognition and alarm generation against hypo- and hyperglycemic events.

Simple Estimation of Incident HIV Infection Rates in Notification Cohorts Based on Window Periods of Algorithms for Evaluation of Line-Immunoassay Result Patterns

Background Tests for recent infections (TRIs) are important for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) also yields information on time since infection. We have published algorithms which, with a certain sensitivity and specificity, distinguish between incident (< = 12 months) and older infection. In order to use these algorithms like other TRIs, i.e., based on their windows, we now determined their window periods. Methods We classified Inno-Lia results of 527 treatment-naïve patients with HIV-1 infection < = 12 months according to incidence by 25 algorithms. The time after which all infections were ruled older, i.e. the algorithm's window, was determined by linear regression of the proportion ruled incident in dependence of time since infection. Window-based incident infection rates (IIR) were determined utilizing the relationship ‘Prevalence = Incidence x Duration’ in four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications. Results were compared to performance-based IIR also derived from Inno-Lia results, but utilizing the relationship ‘incident = true incident + false incident’ and also to the IIR derived from the BED incidence assay. Results Window periods varied between 45.8 and 130.1 days and correlated well with the algorithms' diagnostic sensitivity (R2 = 0.962; P<0.0001). Among the 25 algorithms, the mean window-based IIR among the 748 notifications of 2005/06 was 0.457 compared to 0.453 obtained for performance-based IIR with a model not correcting for selection bias. Evaluation of BED results using a window of 153 days yielded an IIR of 0.669. Window-based IIR and performance-based IIR increased by 22.4% and respectively 30.6% in 2008, while 2009 and 2010 showed a return to baseline for both methods. Conclusions IIR estimations by window- and performance-based evaluations of Inno-Lia algorithm results were similar and can be used together to assess IIR changes between annual HIV notification cohorts.

Fractional Flow Reserve–Guided PCI for Stable Coronary Artery Disease

Background We hypothesized that in patients with stable coronary artery disease and stenosis, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) performed on the basis of the fractional flow reserve (FFR) would be superior to medical therapy. Methods In 1220 patients with stable coronary artery disease, we assessed the FFR in all stenoses that were visible on angiography. Patients who had at least one stenosis with an FFR of 0.80 or less were randomly assigned to undergo FFR-guided PCI plus medical therapy or to receive medical therapy alone. Patients in whom all stenoses had an FFR of more than 0.80 received medical therapy alone and were included in a registry. The primary end point was a composite of death from any cause, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or urgent revascularization within 2 years. Results The rate of the primary end point was significantly lower in the PCI group than in the medical-therapy group (8.1% vs. 19.5%; hazard ratio, 0.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26 to 0.57; P<0.001). This reduction was driven by a lower rate of urgent revascularization in the PCI group (4.0% vs. 16.3%; hazard ratio, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.14 to 0.38; P<0.001), with no significant between-group differences in the rates of death and myocardial infarction. Urgent revascularizations that were triggered by myocardial infarction or ischemic changes on electrocardiography were less frequent in the PCI group (3.4% vs. 7.0%, P=0.01). In a landmark analysis, the rate of death or myocardial infection from 8 days to 2 years was lower in the PCI group than in the medical-therapy group (4.6% vs. 8.0%, P=0.04). Among registry patients, the rate of the primary end point was 9.0% at 2 years. Conclusions In patients with stable coronary artery disease, FFR-guided PCI, as compared with medical therapy alone, improved the outcome. Patients without ischemia had a favorable outcome with medical therapy alone. (Funded by St. Jude Medical; FAME 2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01132495 .).

Glomerular filtration rate, urine production, and fractional clearance of electrolytes in acute kidney injury in dogs and their association with survival.

BACKGROUND Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in dogs. Few studies have assessed sequential changes in indices of kidney function in dogs with naturally occurring AKI. OBJECTIVE To document sequential changes of conventional indices of renal function, to better define the course of AKI, and to identify a candidate marker for recovery. ANIMALS Ten dogs with AKI. METHODS Dogs were prospectively enrolled and divided into surviving and nonsurviving dogs. Urine production was measured with a closed system for 7 days. One and 24-hour urinary clearances were performed daily to estimate solute excretion and glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Solute excretion was calculated as an excretion ratio (ER) and fractional clearance (FC) based on both the 1- and 24-hour urine collections. RESULTS Four dogs survived and 6 died. At presentation, GFR was not significantly different between the outcome groups, but significantly (P = .03) increased over time in the surviving, but not in the nonsurviving dogs. Fractional clearance of Na decreased significantly over time (20.2-9.4%, P < .0001) in the surviving, but not in the nonsurviving dogs. The ER and FC of solutes were highly correlated (r, 0.70-0.95). CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL IMPACT Excretion ratio might be used in the clinical setting as a surrogate marker to follow trends in solute excretion. Increased GFR, urine production, and decreased FC of Na were markers of renal recovery. The FC of Na is a simple, noninvasive, and cost-effective method that can be used to evaluate recovery of renal function.