Global carbon budget 2013

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ± 1 σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr − 1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr − 1, S OCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, and S LAND 2.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr − 1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, 2.2 % above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr − 1, SOCEANwas 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1, and assuming an ELU Cof 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1 (based on the 2001–2010 average), SLAND was 2.7 ± 0.9 GtC yr − 1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 con- centration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1 % (1.1–3.1 %) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61 % above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 ± 55 GtC for 1870–2013, about 70 % from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30 % from ELUC (145 ± 50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quéré et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

Late-Holocene climate variability and ecosystem responses in Alaska inferred from high-resolution multiproxy sediment analyses at Grizzly Lake

The late-Holocene shift from Picea glauca (white spruce) to Picea mariana (black spruce) forests marked the establishment of modern boreal forests in Alaska. To understand the patterns and drivers of this vegetational change and the associated late-Holocene environmental dynamics, we analyzed radiocarbon-dated sediments from Grizzly Lake for chironomids, diatoms, pollen, macrofossils, charcoal, element composition, particle size, and magnetic properties for the period 4100–1800 cal BP. Chironomid assemblages reveal two episodes of decreased July temperature, at ca. 3300–3150 (ca −1 °C) and 2900–2550 cal BP (ca −2 °C). These episodes coincided with climate change elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, atmospheric reorganization, and low solar activity. Diatom-inferred lake levels dropped by ca. 5 m at 3200 cal BP, suggesting dry conditions during the period 3200–1800 cal BP. P. glauca declined and P. mariana expanded at ca. 3200 cal BP; this vegetational change was linked to diatom-inferred low lake levels and thus decreased moisture availability. Forest cover declined at 3300–3100, 2800–2500 and 2300–2100 cal BP and soil erosion as inferred from increased values of Al, K, Si, Ti, and Ca intensified, when solar irradiance was low. Plant taxa adapted to disturbance and cold climate (e.g. Alnus viridis, shrub Betula, Epilobium) expanded during these periods of reduced forest cover. This open vegetation type was associated with high fire activity that peaked at 2800 cal BP, when climatic conditions were particularly cold and dry. Forest recovery lagged behind subsequent climate warming (≤+3 °C) by ca. 75–225 years. Our multiproxy data set suggests that P. glauca was dominant under warm-moist climatic conditions, whereas P. mariana prevailed under cold-dry and warm-dry conditions. This pattern implies that climatic warming, as anticipated for this century, may promote P. glauca expansions, if moisture availability will be sufficiently high, while P. mariana may expand under dry conditions, possibly exacerbating climate impacts on the fire regime.

Holocene biomass burning and global dynamics of the carbon cycle

Fire regimes have changed during the Holocene due to changes in climate, vegetation, and in human practices. Here, we hypothesise that changes in fire regime may have affected the global CO2 concentration in the atmosphere through the Holocene. Our data are based on quantitative reconstructions of biomass burning deduced from stratified charcoal records from Europe, and South-, Central- and North America, and Oceania to test the fire-carbon release hypothesis. In Europe the significant increase of fire activity is dated ≈6000 cal. yr ago. In north-eastern North America burning activity was greatest before 7500 years ago, very low between 7500–3000 years, and has been increasing since 3000 years ago. In tropical America, the pattern is more complex and apparently latitudinally zonal. Maximum burning occurred in the southern Amazon basin and in Central America during the middle Holocene, and during the last 2000 years in the northern Amazon basin. In Oceania, biomass burning has decreased since a maximum 5000 years ago. Biomass burning has broadly increased in the Northern and Southern hemispheres throughout the second half of the Holocene associated with changes in climate and human practices. Global fire indices parallel the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration recorded in Antarctic ice cores. Future issues on carbon dynamics relatively to biomass burning are discussed to improve the quantitative reconstructions.

Long-term man–environment interactions in the Bolivian Amazon: 8000 years of vegetation dynamics

Only few studies documenting the vegetation history of the Llanos de Moxos, one of the largest seasonally flooded wetland areas in South America, are available and little is known about the environmental impact of pre-Columbian settlements. We use radiocarbon-dated terrestrial plant macrofossils to establish a sound chronology and palynological analyses to reconstruct the vegetation and fire history of the Lago Rogaguado area. The sedimentary pollen and spore record suggests that wetland and wooded savannah (Cerrado) environments occurred around the lake between 8100 and 5800 cal BP. Fire activity was high during this period and was probably connected to the dry Cerrado environments. The pollen evidence suggests early plant cultivation (Zea mays, Annonaceae and Cucurbitaceae) from 6500 cal BP onwards, which is significantly earlier than hitherto assumed for Amazonia. Gallery forests expanded after 5800 cal BP, when fire activity strongly declined. Forest expansion intensified around 2800 cal BP and continued until 2000 cal BP, when forest cover reached its maximum and fire activity its minimum. The late-Holocene forest expansion to the south and the decrease of fire activity may have resulted from a climatic shift to moister conditions (possibly a shorter dry season). New crops (e.g. Avena-type) or adventive plants (e.g. Rumex acetosella-type) document the impact of European economies after ca. 500 cal BP. Land use intensity remained rather stable over the most recent centuries, arguing against a collapse of settlements in response to the arrival of Europeans, as reconstructed from other Amazonian pollen records.

Reconstruction of Holocene vegetation dynamics at Lac de Bretaye, a high-mountain lake in the Swiss Alps

A deeper understanding of past vegetation dynamics is required to better assess future vegetation responses to global warming in the Alps. Lake sediments from Lac de Bretaye, a small subalpine lake in the Northern Swiss Alps (1780 m a.s.l.), were analysed to reconstruct past vegetation dynamics for the entire Holocene, using pollen, macrofossil and charcoal analyses as main proxies. The results show that timberline reached the lake’s catchment area at around 10,300 cal. BP, supporting the hypothesis of a delayed postglacial afforestation in the Northern Alps. At the same time, thermophilous trees such as Ulmus, Tilia and Acer established in the lowlands and expanded to the altitude of the lake, forming distinctive boreo-nemoral forests with Betula, Pinus cembra and Larix decidua. From about 5000 to 3500 cal. BP, thermophilous trees declined because of increasing human land use, mainly driven by the mass expansion of Picea abies and severe anthropogenic fire activity. From the Bronze Age onwards (c. 4200–2800 cal. BP), grazing indicators and high values for charcoal concentration and influx attest an intensifying human impact, fostering the expansion of Alnus viridis and Picea abies. Hence, biodiversity in alpine meadows increased, whereas forest diversity declined, as can be seen in other regional records. We argue that the anticipated climate change and decreasing human impact in the Alps today will not only lead to an upward movement of timberline with consequent loss of area for grasslands, but also to a disruption of Picea abies forests, which may allow the re-expansion of thermophilous tree species.

Millennial changes in North American wildfire and soil activity over the last glacial cycle

Climate changes in the North Atlantic region during the last glacial cycle were dominated by the slow waxing and waning of the North American ice sheet as well as by intermittent, millennial-scale Dansgaard–Oeschger climate oscillations. However, prior to the last deglaciation, the responses of North American vegetation and biomass burning to these climate variations are uncertain. Ammonium in Greenland ice cores, a product from North American soil emissions and biomass burning events, can help to fill this gap. Here we use continuous, high-resolution measurements of ammonium concentrations between 110,000 to 10,000 years ago from the Greenland NGRIP and GRIP ice cores to reconstruct North American wildfire activity and soil ammonium emissions. We find that on orbital timescales soil emissions increased under warmer climate conditions when vegetation expanded northwards into previously ice-covered areas. For millennial-scale interstadial warm periods during Marine Isotope Stage 3, the fire recurrence rate increased in parallel to the rapid warmings, whereas soil emissions rose more slowly, reflecting slow ice shrinkage and delayed ecosystem changes. We conclude that sudden warming events had little impact on soil ammonium emissions and ammonium transport to Greenland, but did result in a substantial increase in the frequency of North American wildfires.

Effects of climate, fire, and humans on forest dynamics: forest simulations compared to the palaeological record

In order to find out which factors influenced the forest dynamics in northern Italy during the Holocene, a palaeoecological approach involving pollen analysis was combined with ecosystem modelling. The dynamic and distribution based forest model DisCForm was run with different input scenarios for climate, species immigration, fire, and human impact and the similarity of the simulations with the original pollen record was assessed. From the comparisons of the model output and the pollen core, it appears that immigration was most important in the first part of the Holocene, and that fire and human activity had a major influence in the second half. Species not well represented in the simulation outputs are species with a higher abundance in the past than today (Corylus), with their habitat in riparian forests (Alnus) or with a strong response to human impact (Castanea).

The Interaction Between Forest Fires and Human Activity in Southern Switzerland

The impact of human activities on the fire regime in southern Switzerland was studied using (pre)historical charcoal and pollen data from lake sediments and statistical data from the 20th century. The cultural impact on forest fire was established by correlating charcoal-influx data with pollen percentages of anthropogenic indicators such as Plantago lanceolata, the Cerealia (sum of Avena t., Triticum t. and Hordeum t.) and Secale. During the 20th century, fire frequency was correlated with precipitation, dry and very dry periods and landscape management indicators. The effects of human activity on the fire regime are clearly recognisable since at least the Neolithic period. Using palaeoecological or statistical data, the variations in fire regime originating from anthropogenic actions may be differentiated from those due to climatic changes if they are sufficiently conspicuous.

Long-term forest fire ecology and dynamics in southern Switzerland

1 Pollen and charcoal analysis at two lakes in southern Switzerland revealed that fire has had a prominent role in changing the woodland composition of this area for more than 7000 years. 2 The sediment of Lago di Origlio for the period between 5100 and 3100 bc cal. was sampled continuously with a time interval of about 10 years. Peaks of charcoal particles were significantly correlated with repeated declines in pollen of Abies, Hedera, Tilia, Ulmus, Fraxinus excelsior t., Fagus and Vitis and with increases in Alnus glutinosa t., shrubs (e.g. Corylus, Salix and Sambucus nigra t.) and several herbaceous species. The final disappearance of the lowland Abies alba stands at around 3150 bc cal. may be an example of a fire-caused local extinction of a fire-intolerant species. 3 Forest fires tended to diminish pollen diversity. The charcoal peaks were preceded by pollen types indicating human activity. Charcoal minima occurred during periods of cold humid climate, when fire susceptibility would be reduced. 4 An increase of forest fires at about 2100 bc cal. severely reduced the remaining fire-sensitive plants: the mixed-oak forest was replaced by a fire-tolerant alder–oak forest. The very strong increase of charcoal influx, and the marked presence of anthropogenic indicators, point to principally anthropogenic causes. 5 We suggest that without anthropogenic disturbances Abies alba would still form lowland forests together with various deciduous broadleaved tree taxa.