Prediction of 1-year mortality in patients with acute coronary syndromes undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: validation of the logistic clinical SYNTAX (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Interventions With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score

OBJECTIVES This study sought to validate the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (ACS), in order to further legitimize its clinical application. BACKGROUND The Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score allows for an individualized prediction of 1-year mortality in patients undergoing contemporary percutaneous coronary intervention. It is composed of a "Core" Model (anatomical SYNTAX score, age, creatinine clearance, and left ventricular ejection fraction), and "Extended" Model (composed of an additional 6 clinical variables), and has previously been cross validated in 7 contemporary stent trials (>6,000 patients). METHODS One-year all-cause death was analyzed in 2,627 patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention from the ACUITY (Acute Catheterization and Urgent Intervention Triage Strategy) trial. Mortality predictions from the Core and Extended Models were studied with respect to discrimination, that is, separation of those with and without 1-year all-cause death (assessed by the concordance [C] statistic), and calibration, that is, agreement between observed and predicted outcomes (assessed with validation plots). Decision curve analyses, which weight the harms (false positives) against benefits (true positives) of using a risk score to make mortality predictions, were undertaken to assess clinical usefulness. RESULTS In the ACUITY trial, the median SYNTAX score was 9.0 (interquartile range 5.0 to 16.0); approximately 40% of patients had 3-vessel disease, 29% diabetes, and 85% underwent drug-eluting stent implantation. Validation plots confirmed agreement between observed and predicted mortality. The Core and Extended Models demonstrated substantial improvements in the discriminative ability for 1-year all-cause death compared with the anatomical SYNTAX score in isolation (C-statistics: SYNTAX score: 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56 to 0.71; Core Model: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.79; Extended Model: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.70 to 0.83). Decision curve analyses confirmed the increasing ability to correctly identify patients who would die at 1 year with the Extended Model versus the Core Model versus the anatomical SYNTAX score, over a wide range of thresholds for mortality risk predictions. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the anatomical SYNTAX score alone, the Core and Extended Models of the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score more accurately predicted individual 1-year mortality in patients presenting with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. These findings support the clinical application of the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score.

Positive affect moderates the effect of negative affect on cardiovascular disease-related hospitalizations and all-cause mortality after cardiac rehabilitation

BACKGROUND Little is known as to whether negative emotions adversely impact the prognosis of patients who undergo cardiac rehabilitation. We prospectively investigated the predictive value of state negative affect (NA) assessed at discharge from cardiac rehabilitation for prognosis and the moderating role of positive affect (PA) on the effect of NA on outcomes. METHODS A total of 564 cardiac patients (62.49 ± 11.51) completed a comprehensive three-month outpatient cardiac rehabilitation program, filling in the Global Mood Scale (GMS) at discharge. The combined endpoint was cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related hospitalizations plus all-cause mortality at follow-up. Cox regression models estimated the predictive value of NA, as well as the moderating influence of PA on outcomes. Survival models were adjusted for sociodemographic factors, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, and severity of disease. RESULTS During a mean follow-up period of 3.4 years, 71 patients were hospitalized for a CVD-related event and 15 patients died. NA score (range 0-20) was a significant and independent predictor (hazard ratio (HR) 1.091, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.012-1.175; p = 0.023) with a three-point higher level in NA increasing the relative risk by 9.1%. Furthermore, PA interacted significantly with NA (p < 0.001). The relative risk of poor prognosis with NA was increased in patients with low PA (p = 0.012) but remained unchanged in combination with high PA (p = 0.12). CONCLUSION The combination of NA with low PA was particularly predictive of poor prognosis. Whether reduction of NA and increase of PA, particularly in those with high NA, improves outcome needs to be tested.

Level of incongruence during cardiac rehabilitation and prediction of future CVD-related hospitalizations plus all-cause mortality

Independent of traditional risk factors, psychosocial risk factors increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Studies in the field of psychotherapy have shown that the construct of incongruence (meaning a discrepancy between desired and achieved goals) affects the outcome of therapy. We prospectively measured the impact of incongruence in patients after undergoing a cardiac rehabilitation program. We examined 198 CVD patients enrolled in a 8–12 week comprehensive cardiac rehabilitation program. Patients completed the German short version of the Incongruence Questionnaire and the SF-36 Health Questionnaire to measure quality of life (QoL) at discharge of rehabilitation. Endpoints at follow-up were CVD-related hospitalizations plus all-cause mortality. During a mean follow-up period of 54.3 months, 29 patients experienced a CVD-related hospitalization and 3 patients died. Incongruence at discharge of rehabilitation was independent of traditional risk factors a significant predictor for CVD-related hospitalizations plus all-cause mortality (HR 2.03, 95% CI 1.29–3.20, p = .002). We also found a significant interaction of incongruence with mental QoL (HR .96, 95% CI .92–.99, p = .027), i.e. incongruence predicted poor prognosis if QoL was low (p = .017), but not if QoL was high (p = .74). Incongruence at discharge predicted future CVD-related hospitalizations plus all-cause mortality and mental QoL moderated this relationship. Therefore, incongruence should be considered for effective treatment planning and outcome measurement.

Adjusting mortality for loss to follow-up: analysis of five ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

Evaluation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa is difficult because many patients are lost to follow-up. Outcomes in these patients are generally unknown but studies tracing patients have shown mortality to be high. We adjusted programme-level mortality in the first year of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for excess mortality in patients lost to follow-up.

Secondary prevention through cardiac rehabilitation: from knowledge to implementation. A position paper from the Cardiac Rehabilitation Section of the European Association of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation

Increasing awareness of the importance of cardiovascular prevention is not yet matched by the resources and actions within health care systems. Recent publication of the European Commission's European Heart Health Charter in 2008 prompts a review of the role of cardiac rehabilitation (CR) to cardiovascular health outcomes. Secondary prevention through exercise-based CR is the intervention with the best scientific evidence to contribute to decrease morbidity and mortality in coronary artery disease, in particular after myocardial infarction but also incorporating cardiac interventions and chronic stable heart failure. The present position paper aims to provide the practical recommendations on the core components and goals of CR intervention in different cardiovascular conditions, to assist in the design and development of the programmes, and to support healthcare providers, insurers, policy makers and consumers in the recognition of the comprehensive nature of CR. Those charged with responsibility for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease, whether at European, national or individual centre level, need to consider where and how structured programmes of CR can be delivered to all patients eligible. Thus a novel, disease-oriented document has been generated, where all components of CR for cardiovascular conditions have been revised, presenting both well-established and controversial aspects. A general table applicable to all cardiovascular conditions and specific tables for each clinical disease have been created and commented.

Early non-invasive cardiac output monitoring in hemodynamically unstable intensive care patients: A multi-center randomized controlled trial

Introduction Acute hemodynamic instability increases morbidity and mortality. We investigated whether early non-invasive cardiac output monitoring enhances hemodynamic stabilization and improves outcome. Methods A multicenter, randomized controlled trial was conducted in three European university hospital intensive care units in 2006 and 2007. A total of 388 hemodynamically unstable patients identified during their first six hours in the intensive care unit (ICU) were randomized to receive either non-invasive cardiac output monitoring for 24 hrs (minimally invasive cardiac output/MICO group; n = 201) or usual care (control group; n = 187). The main outcome measure was the proportion of patients achieving hemodynamic stability within six hours of starting the study. Results The number of hemodynamic instability criteria at baseline (MICO group mean 2.0 (SD 1.0), control group 1.8 (1.0); P = .06) and severity of illness (SAPS II score; MICO group 48 (18), control group 48 (15); P = .86)) were similar. At 6 hrs, 45 patients (22%) in the MICO group and 52 patients (28%) in the control group were hemodynamically stable (mean difference 5%; 95% confidence interval of the difference -3 to 14%; P = .24). Hemodynamic support with fluids and vasoactive drugs, and pulmonary artery catheter use (MICO group: 19%, control group: 26%; P = .11) were similar in the two groups. The median length of ICU stay was 2.0 (interquartile range 1.2 to 4.6) days in the MICO group and 2.5 (1.1 to 5.0) days in the control group (P = .38). The hospital mortality was 26% in the MICO group and 21% in the control group (P = .34). Conclusions Minimally-invasive cardiac output monitoring added to usual care does not facilitate early hemodynamic stabilization in the ICU, nor does it alter the hemodynamic support or outcome. Our results emphasize the need to evaluate technologies used to measure stroke volume and cardiac output--especially their impact on the process of care--before any large-scale outcome studies are attempted.

All cause and disease specific mortality in patients with knee or hip osteoarthritis: population based cohort study

Objective To examine all cause and disease specific mortality in patients with osteoarthritis of the knee or hip. Design Population based cohort study. Setting General practices in the southwest of England. Participants 1163 patients aged 35 years or over with symptoms and radiological confirmation of osteoarthritis of the knee or hip. Main outcome measures Age and sex standardised mortality ratios and multivariable hazard ratios of death after a median of 14 years’ follow-up. Results Patients with osteoarthritis had excess all cause mortality compared with the general population (standardised mortality ratio 1.55, 95% confidence interval 1.41 to 1.70). Excess mortality was observed for all disease specific causes of death but was particularly pronounced for cardiovascular (standardised mortality ratio 1.71, 1.49 to 1.98) and dementia associated mortality (1.99, 1.22 to 3.25). Mortality increased with increasing age (P for trend <0.001), male sex (adjusted hazard ratio 1.59, 1.30 to 1.96), self reported history of diabetes (1.95, 1.31 to 2.90), cancer (2.28, 1.50 to 3.47), cardiovascular disease (1.38, 1.12 to 1.71), and walking disability (1.48, 1.17 to 1.86). However, little evidence existed for increased mortality associated with previous joint replacement, obesity, depression, chronic inflammatory disease, eye disease, or presence of pain at baseline. The more severe the walking disability, the higher was the risk of death (P for trend <0.001). Conclusion Patients with osteoarthritis are at higher risk of death compared with the general population. History of diabetes, cancer, or cardiovascular disease and the presence of walking disability are major risk factors. Management of patients with osteoarthritis and walking disability should focus on effective treatment of cardiovascular risk factors and comorbidities, as well as on increasing physical activity.

Cardiac troponin testing and the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index. The SWIss Venous ThromboEmbolism Registry (SWIVTER)

A low simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI), defined as age ≤80 years and absence of systemic hypotension, tachycardia, hypoxia, cancer, heart failure, and lung disease, identifies low-risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). It is unknown whether cardiac troponin testing improves the prediction of clinical outcomes if the sPESI is not low. In the prospective Swiss Venous Thromboembolism Registry, 369 patients with acute PE and a troponin test (conventional troponin T or I, highly sensitive troponin T) were enrolled from 18 hospitals. A positive test result was defined as a troponin level above the manufacturers assay threshold. Among the 106 (29%) patients with low sPESI, the rate of mortality or PE recurrence at 30 days was 1.0%. Among the 263 (71%) patients with high sPESI, 177 (67%) were troponin-negative and 86 (33%) troponin-positive; the rate of mortality or PE recurrence at 30 days was 4.6% vs. 12.8% (p=0.015), respectively. Overall, risk assessment with a troponin test (hazard ratio [HR] 3.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.38-8.37; p=0.008) maintained its prognostic value for mortality or PE recurrence when adjusted for sPESI (HR 5.80, 95%CI 0.76-44.10; p=0.09). The combination of sPESI with a troponin test resulted in a greater area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.63-0.81) than sPESI alone (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.57-0.68) (p=0.023). In conclusion, although cardiac troponin testing may not be required in patients with a low sPESI, it adds prognostic value for early death and recurrence for patients with a high sPESI.

Adverse cardiac events during catecholamine vasopressor therapy: a prospective observational study

PURPOSE: To determine the incidence of and risk factors for adverse cardiac events during catecholamine vasopressor therapy in surgical intensive care unit patients with cardiovascular failure. METHODS: The occurrence of any of seven predefined adverse cardiac events (prolonged elevated heart rate, tachyarrhythmia, myocardial cell damage, acute cardiac arrest or death, pulmonary hypertension-induced right heart dysfunction, reduction of systemic blood flow) was prospectively recorded during catecholamine vasopressor therapy lasting at least 12 h. RESULTS: Fifty-four of 112 study patients developed a total of 114 adverse cardiac events, an incidence of 48.2 % (95 % CI, 38.8-57.6 %). New-onset tachyarrhythmia (49.1 %), prolonged elevated heart rate (23.7 %), and myocardial cell damage (17.5 %) occurred most frequently. Aside from chronic liver diseases, factors independently associated with the occurrence of adverse cardiac events included need for renal replacement therapy, disease severity (assessed by the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II), number of catecholamine vasopressors (OR, 1.73; 95 % CI, 1.08-2.77; p = 0.02) and duration of catecholamine vasopressor therapy (OR, 1.01; 95 % CI, 1-1.01; p = 0.002). Patients developing adverse cardiac events were on catecholamine vasopressors (p < 0.001) and mechanical ventilation (p < 0.001) for longer and had longer intensive care unit stays (p < 0.001) and greater mortality (25.9 vs. 1.7 %; p < 0.001) than patients who did not. CONCLUSIONS: Adverse cardiac events occurred in 48.2 % of surgical intensive care unit patients with cardiovascular failure and were related to morbidity and mortality. The extent and duration of catecholamine vasopressor therapy were independently associated with and may contribute to the pathogenesis of adverse cardiac events.

Early reperfusion hemodynamics predict recovery in rat hearts: a potential approach towards evaluating cardiac grafts from non-heart-beating donors

Aims Cardiac grafts from non-heartbeating donors (NHBDs) could significantly increase organ availability and reduce waiting-list mortality. Reluctance to exploit hearts from NHBDs arises from obligatory delays in procurement leading to periods of warm ischemia and possible subsequent contractile dysfunction. Means for early prediction of graft suitability prior to transplantation are thus required for development of heart transplantation programs with NHBDs. Methods and Results Hearts (n = 31) isolated from male Wistar rats were perfused with modified Krebs-Henseleit buffer aerobically for 20 min, followed by global, no-flow ischemia (32°C) for 30, 50, 55 or 60 min. Reperfusion was unloaded for 20 min, and then loaded, in working-mode, for 40 min. Left ventricular (LV) pressure was monitored using a micro-tip pressure catheter introduced via the mitral valve. Several hemodynamic parameters measured during early, unloaded reperfusion correlated significantly with LV work after 60 min reperfusion (p<0.001). Coronary flow and the production of lactate and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) also correlated significantly with outcomes after 60 min reperfusion (p<0.05). Based on early reperfusion hemodynamic measures, a composite, weighted predictive parameter, incorporating heart rate (HR), developed pressure (DP) and end-diastolic pressure, was generated and evaluated against the HR-DP product after 60 min of reperfusion. Effective discriminating ability for this novel parameter was observed for four HR*DP cut-off values, particularly for ≥20 *103 mmHg*beats*min−1 (p<0.01). Conclusion Upon reperfusion of a NHBD heart, early evaluation, at the time of organ procurement, of cardiac hemodynamic parameters, as well as easily accessible markers of metabolism and necrosis seem to accurately predict subsequent contractile recovery and could thus potentially be of use in guiding the decision of accepting the ischemic heart for transplantation.

Impact of salt on cardiac differential gene expression and coronary lesion in normotensive mineralocorticoid-treated mice

We previously reported that excess of deoxycorticosterone-acetate (DOCA)/salt-induced cardiac hypertrophy in the absence of hypertension in one-renin gene mice. This model allows us to study molecular mechanisms of high-salt intake in the development of cardiovascular remodeling, independently of blood pressure in a high mineralocorticoid state. In this study, we compared the effect of 5-wk low- and high-salt intake on cardiovascular remodeling and cardiac differential gene expression in mice receiving the same amount of DOCA. Differential gene and protein expression was measured by high-density cDNA microarray assays, real-time PCR and Western blot analysis in DOCA-high salt (HS) vs. DOCA-low salt (LS) mice. DOCA-HS mice developed cardiac hypertrophy, coronary perivascular fibrosis, and left ventricular dysfunction. Differential gene and protein expression demonstrated that high-salt intake upregulated a subset of genes encoding for proteins involved in inflammation and extracellular matrix remodeling (e.g., Col3a1, Col1a2, Hmox1, and Lcn2). A major subset of downregulated genes encoded for transcription factors, including myeloid differentiation primary response (MyD) genes. Our data provide some evidence that vascular remodeling, fibrosis, and inflammation are important consequences of a high-salt intake in DOCA mice. Our study suggests that among the different pathogenic factors of cardiac and vascular remodeling, such as hypertension and mineralocorticoid excess and sodium intake, the latter is critical for the development of the profibrotic and proinflammatory phenotype observed in the heart of normotensive DOCA-treated mice.

Persistent Left Superior Vena Cava in Cardiac Congenital Surgery

Persistent left superior vena cava (LSVC) is a relatively frequent finding in congenital cardiac malformation. The scope of the study was to analyze the timing of diagnosis of persistent LSVC, the timing of diagnosis of associated anomalies of the coronary sinus, and the global impact on morbidity and mortality of persistent LSVC in children with congenital heart disease after cardiac surgery. Retrospective analysis of a cohort of children after cardiac surgery on bypass for congenital heart disease. Three hundred seventy-one patients were included in the study, and their median age was 2.75 years (IQR 0.65-6.63). Forty-seven children had persistent LSVC (12.7 %), and persistent LSVC was identified on echocardiography before surgery in 39 patients (83 %). In three patients (6.4 %) with persistent LSVC, significant inflow obstruction of the left ventricle developed after surgery leading to low output syndrome or secondary pulmonary hypertension. In eight patients (17 %), persistent LSVC was associated with a partially or completely unroofed coronary sinus and in two cases (4 %) with coronary sinus ostial atresia. Duration of mechanical ventilation was significantly shorter in the control group (1.2 vs. 3.0 days, p = 0.04), whereas length of stay in intensive care did not differ. Mortality was also significantly lower in the control group (2.5 vs. 10.6 %, p = 0.004). The results of study show that persistent LSVC in association with congenital cardiac malformation increases the risk of mortality in children with cardiac surgery on cardiopulmonary bypass. Recognition of a persistent LSVC and its associated anomalies is mandatory to avoid complications during or after cardiac surgery.

Impact of left ventricular hypertrophy late after aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality

AIMS: The goal of this study was to assess the prevalence of left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy in patients with aortic stenosis late (>6 months) after aortic valve replacement and its impact on cardiac-related morbidity and mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a single tertiary centre, echocardiographic data of LV muscle mass were collected. Detailed information of medical history and angiographic data were gathered. Ninety-nine of 213 patients (46%) had LV hypertrophy late (mean 5.8 +/- 5.4 years) after aortic valve replacement. LV hypertrophy was associated with impaired exercise capacity, higher New York Heart Association dyspnoea class, a tendency for more frequent chest pain expressed as higher Canadian Cardiovascular Society class, and more rehospitalizations. 24% of patients with normal LV mass vs. 39% of patients with LV hypertrophy reported cardiac-related morbidity (p = 0.04). In a multivariate logistic regression model, LV hypertrophy was an independent predictor of cardiac-related morbidity (odds ratio 2.31, 95% CI 1.08 to 5.41), after correction for gender, baseline ejection fraction, and coronary artery disease and its risk factors. Thirty seven deaths occurred during a total of 1959 patient years of follow-up (mean follow-up 9.6 years). Age at aortic valve replacement (hazard ratio 1.85, 95% CI 1.39 to 2.47, for every 5 years increase in age), coexisting coronary artery disease at the time of surgery (hazard ratio 3.36, 95% CI 1.31 to 8.62), and smoking (hazard ratio 4.82, 95% CI 1.72 to 13.45) were independent predictors of overall mortality late after surgery, but not LV hypertrophy. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with aortic valve replacement for isolated aortic stenosis, LV hypertrophy late after surgery is associated with increased morbidity.

QTc interval and resting heart rate as long-term predictors of mortality in type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus: a 23-year follow-up

We evaluated the association of QT interval corrected for heart rate (QT(c)) and resting heart rate (rHR) with mortality (all-causes, cardiovascular, cardiac, and ischaemic heart disease) in subjects with type 1 and type 2 diabetes.

Apolipoprotein B as a long-term predictor of mortality in type 1 diabetes mellitus: a 15-year follow up

To evaluate the association of apolipoprotein B (apo B) with mortality due to all causes, to cardiac disease and to ischaemic heart disease (IHD) in subjects with type 1 diabetes mellitus.