Future water quality monitoring--adapting tools to deal with mixtures of pollutants in water resource management.

Environmental quality monitoring of water resources is challenged with providing the basis for safeguarding the environment against adverse biological effects of anthropogenic chemical contamination from diffuse and point sources. While current regulatory efforts focus on monitoring and assessing a few legacy chemicals, many more anthropogenic chemicals can be detected simultaneously in our aquatic resources. However, exposure to chemical mixtures does not necessarily translate into adverse biological effects nor clearly shows whether mitigation measures are needed. Thus, the question which mixtures are present and which have associated combined effects becomes central for defining adequate monitoring and assessment strategies. Here we describe the vision of the international, EU-funded project SOLUTIONS, where three routes are explored to link the occurrence of chemical mixtures at specific sites to the assessment of adverse biological combination effects. First of all, multi-residue target and non-target screening techniques covering a broader range of anticipated chemicals co-occurring in the environment are being developed. By improving sensitivity and detection limits for known bioactive compounds of concern, new analytical chemistry data for multiple components can be obtained and used to characterise priority mixtures. This information on chemical occurrence will be used to predict mixture toxicity and to derive combined effect estimates suitable for advancing environmental quality standards. Secondly, bioanalytical tools will be explored to provide aggregate bioactivity measures integrating all components that produce common (adverse) outcomes even for mixtures of varying compositions. The ambition is to provide comprehensive arrays of effect-based tools and trait-based field observations that link multiple chemical exposures to various environmental protection goals more directly and to provide improved in situ observations for impact assessment of mixtures. Thirdly, effect-directed analysis (EDA) will be applied to identify major drivers of mixture toxicity. Refinements of EDA include the use of statistical approaches with monitoring information for guidance of experimental EDA studies. These three approaches will be explored using case studies at the Danube and Rhine river basins as well as rivers of the Iberian Peninsula. The synthesis of findings will be organised to provide guidance for future solution-oriented environmental monitoring and explore more systematic ways to assess mixture exposures and combination effects in future water quality monitoring.

The applicability of non-local LCI data for LCA

This study evaluated how applicable European Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) data are to assessing the environmental impacts of the life cycle of Brazilian triple superphosphate (TSP). The LCI data used for the comparison were local Brazilian LCI data, European LCI data in its original version from the ecoinvent database and a modified version of the European LCI data, which had been adapted to better account for the Brazilian situation. We compared the three established datasets at the level of the inventory as well as for their environmental impacts, i.e. at the level of Life Cycle Environmental Assessment (LCIA). The analysis showed that the European LCIs (both the original and the modified ones) considered a broader spectrum of background processes and environmental flows (inputs and outputs). Nevertheless, TSP production had in all three cases similar values for the consumption of the main raw materials. The LCIA results obtained for the datasets showed important differences as well. Therefore we concluded that the European data in general lead to much higher environmental impacts than the Brazilian data. The differences between the LCIA results obtained with the Brazilian and the European data can be basically explained by the methodological differences underlying the data. The small differences at the LCI level for selected inputs and outputs between the Brazilian and the European LCIs from ecoinvent indicate that the latter can be regarded as applicable for characterizing the Brazilian TSP.

Prediction of residential radon exposure of the whole Swiss population: comparison of model-based predictions with measurement-based predictions

Radon plays an important role for human exposure to natural sources of ionizing radiation. The aim of this article is to compare two approaches to estimate mean radon exposure in the Swiss population: model-based predictions at individual level and measurement-based predictions based on measurements aggregated at municipality level. A nationwide model was used to predict radon levels in each household and for each individual based on the corresponding tectonic unit, building age, building type, soil texture, degree of urbanization, and floor. Measurement-based predictions were carried out within a health impact assessment on residential radon and lung cancer. Mean measured radon levels were corrected for the average floor distribution and weighted with population size of each municipality. Model-based predictions yielded a mean radon exposure of the Swiss population of 84.1 Bq/m(3) . Measurement-based predictions yielded an average exposure of 78 Bq/m(3) . This study demonstrates that the model- and the measurement-based predictions provided similar results. The advantage of the measurement-based approach is its simplicity, which is sufficient for assessing exposure distribution in a population. The model-based approach allows predicting radon levels at specific sites, which is needed in an epidemiological study, and the results do not depend on how the measurement sites have been selected.

Floods at the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains — A Polish-Swiss research project

The present paper introduces the topical area of the Polish-Swiss research project FLORIST (Flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains), informs on its objectives, and reports on initial results. The Tatra Mountains are the area of the highest precipitation in Poland and largely contribute to flood generation. The project is focused around four competence clusters: observation-based climatology, model-based climate change projections and impact assessment, dendrogeomorphology, and impact of large wood debris on fluvial processes. The knowledge generated in the FLORIST project is likely to have impact on understanding and interpretation of flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains, in the past, present, and future. It can help solving important practical problems related to flood risk reduction strategies and flood preparedness.

Reflections on the Nature of Preferentialism in Services Trade

The Graduate Institute organized an academic workshop and roundtable on the occasion of EFTA's 50th Anniversary in Geneva under the chairmanship of H.E. Doris Leuthard, President of the Swiss Confederation. Pierre Sauve, Deputy Managing Director and Director of Studies, WTI and Co-leader, NCCR-Trade work programme on preferentialism and Anirudh Shingal, Senior Research Fellow, WTI and Co-leader, NCCR-Trade work programme on impact assessment of trade, co-authored a paper on the nature of preferentialism in services trade, which Anirudh presented at the workshop. The event was extremely well-attended by high profile dignitaries and academics including President Leuthard; Director General of the WTO, Pascal Lamy; trade ministers of Brazil and Finland; Jan Kubis, Executive Secretary of the UNECE and several current and former ambassadors. The academic workshop, moderated by Theresa Carpenter (Graduate Institute, Geneva), began in the morning with Prof. Victor Norman's (Norwegian School of Economics & Business Administration) presentation on the future of EFTA. Other presentations included those by Prof. Peter Egger (ETH Zurich) on the structural estimation of gravity models with market entry dynamics and by Prof. Richard Baldwin (Graduate Institute, Geneva) on 21st century regionalism. The high-profile Panel in the afternoon, moderated by Prof. Richard Baldwin, was led by President Leuthard who spoke on free trade agreements and the multilateral trading system in 2020. The keynote address at the Panel was delivered by Prof. Jagdish Bhagwati (Coulmbia University), who spoke on strengthening defences against protectionism and liberalizing trade.

Impact Monitoring & Assessment (IMA): Monitoria & Avaliação de Impacto

IMA (Impact Monitoring & Assessment) messages and experiences

Spatial Assessment of Erosion and its Impact on Soil Fertility in the Tajik Foothills

Efficient planning of soil conservation measures requires, first, to understand the impact of soil erosion on soil fertility with regard to local land cover classes; and second, to identify hot spots of soil erosion and bright spots of soil conservation in a spatially explicit manner. Soil organic carbon (SOC) is an important indicator of soil fertility. The aim of this study was to conduct a spatial assessment of erosion and its impact on SOC for specific land cover classes. Input data consisted of extensive ground truth, a digital elevation model and Landsat 7 imagery from two different seasons. Soil spectral reflectance readings were taken from soil samples in the laboratory and calibrated with results of SOC chemical analysis using regression tree modelling. The resulting model statistics for soil degradation assessments are promising (R2=0.71, RMSEV=0.32). Since the area includes rugged terrain and small agricultural plots, the decision tree models allowed mapping of land cover classes, soil erosion incidence and SOC content classes at an acceptable level of accuracy for preliminary studies. The various datasets were linked in the hot-bright spot matrix, which was developed to combine soil erosion incidence information and SOC content levels (for uniform land cover classes) in a scatter plot. The quarters of the plot show different stages of degradation, from well conserved land to hot spots of soil degradation. The approach helps to gain a better understanding of the impact of soil erosion on soil fertility and to identify hot and bright spots in a spatially explicit manner. The results show distinctly lower SOC content levels on large parts of the test areas, where annual crop cultivation was dominant in the 1990s and where cultivation has now been abandoned. On the other hand, there are strong indications that afforestations and fruit orchards established in the 1980s have been successful in conserving soil resources.

Target genes for virulence assessment of Escherichia coli isolates from water, food and the environment

The widespread species Escherichia coli includes a broad variety of different types, ranging from highly pathogenic strains causing worldwide outbreaks of severe disease to avirulent isolates which are part of the normal intestinal flora or which are well characterized and safe laboratory strains. The pathogenicity of a given E. coli strain is mainly determined by specific virulence factors which include adhesins, invasins, toxins and capsule. They are often organized in large genetic blocks either on the chromosome ('pathogenicity islands'), on large plasmids or on phages and can be transmitted horizontally between strains. In this review we summarize the current knowledge of the virulence attributes which determine the pathogenic potential of E. coli strains and the methodology available to assess the virulence of E. coli isolates. We also focus on a recently developed procedure based on a broad-range detection system for E. coli-specific virulence genes that makes it possible to determine the potential pathogenicity and its nature in E. coli strains from various sources. This makes it possible to determine the pathotype of E. coli strains in medical diagnostics, to assess the virulence and health risks of E. coli contaminating water, food and the environment and to study potential reservoirs of virulence genes which might contribute to the emergence of new forms of pathogenic E. coli.

Quantifying entrepreneurship and its impact on local economic performance: A spatial assessment in rural Switzerland

Regional and rural development policies in Europe increasingly emphasize entrepreneurship to mobilize the endogenous economic potential of rural territories. This study develops a concept to quantify entrepreneurship as place-dependent local potential to examine its impact on the local economic performance of rural territories in Switzerland. The short-to-medium-term impact of entrepreneurship on the economic performance of 1706 rural municipalities in Switzerland is assessed by applying three spatial random effects models. Results suggest a generally positive relationship between entrepreneurship and local development: rural municipalities with higher entrepreneurial potential generally show higher business tax revenues per capita and a lower share of social welfare cases among the population, although the impact on local employment is less clear. The explanatory power of entrepreneurship in all three models, however, was only moderate. This finding suggests that political expectations of fostering entrepreneurship to boost endogenous rural development in the short-to-medium term should be damped.

A virtual environment for the assessment and the rehabilitation of the visuo-constructional ability in dementia patients

This study proposes a VE that offers a reliable diagnosis of the stage of cognitive decline in dementia patients and assists the delay of this decline in terms of the visuo-constructional ability. The proposed VE, in the case of the assessment, presents a visuo-constructional completion task, which requires spatial perception, motor memory and the perception of the target object. In the case of the rehabilitation the VE uses sound as audio-feedback that, with the aid of the music perception, tends to develop an enhancement in the visuo-construction ability of the dementia patients that can be generalized even outside of the VE. The study examined 30 subjects that were normal controls (N), 30 patients suffering from memory disorders (Age-Associated Memory Impairment--AAMI) and 30 suffering from Alzheimer's Disease (AD). The results showed that there is a significant correlation between the performance in the visuo-constructional task and the dementia diagnosis. It also seems that the visuo-constructional ability of the (AD) patients can be statistically improved by the audio experience in the VE. The empirical results of this study offer an alternative diagnosis and treatment of dementia patients and could share some light in the brain sub-systems that are responsible for the visuo-constructional ability. Further studies are required in order to investigate the nature of this phenomenon more.