Sensitivity of the WRF model to PBL parametrisations and nesting techniques: evaluation of wind storms over complex terrain

Simulating surface wind over complex terrain is a challenge in regional climate modelling. Therefore, this study aims at identifying a set-up of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model that minimises system- atic errors of surface winds in hindcast simulations. Major factors of the model configuration are tested to find a suitable set-up: the horizontal resolution, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisation scheme and the way the WRF is nested to the driving data set. Hence, a number of sensitivity simulations at a spatial resolution of 2 km are carried out and compared to observations. Given the importance of wind storms, the analysis is based on case studies of 24 historical wind storms that caused great economic damage in Switzerland. Each of these events is downscaled using eight different model set-ups, but sharing the same driving data set. The results show that the lack of representation of the unresolved topography leads to a general overestimation of wind speed in WRF. However, this bias can be substantially reduced by using a PBL scheme that explicitly considers the effects of non-resolved topography, which also improves the spatial structure of wind speed over Switzerland. The wind direction, although generally well reproduced, is not very sensitive to the PBL scheme. Further sensitivity tests include four types of nesting methods: nesting only at the boundaries of the outermost domain, analysis nudging, spectral nudging, and the so-called re-forecast method, where the simulation is frequently restarted. These simulations show that restricting the freedom of the model to develop large-scale disturbances slightly increases the temporal agreement with the observations, at the same time that it further reduces the overestimation of wind speed, especially for maximum wind peaks. The model performance is also evaluated in the outermost domains, where the resolution is coarser. The results demonstrate the important role of horizontal resolution, where the step from 6 to 2 km significantly improves model performance. In summary, the combination of a grid size of 2 km, the non-local PBL scheme modified to explicitly account for non-resolved orography, as well as analysis or spectral nudging, is a superior combination when dynamical downscaling is aimed at reproducing real wind fields.

Experimental validation of a nonlinear μ FE model based on cohesive-frictional plasticity for trabecular bone

Trabecular bone is a porous mineralized tissue playing a major load bearing role in the human body. Prediction of age-related and disease-related fractures and the behavior of bone implant systems needs a thorough understanding of its structure-mechanical property relationships, which can be obtained using microcomputed tomography-based finite element modeling. In this study, a nonlinear model for trabecular bone as a cohesive-frictional material was implemented in a large-scale computational framework and validated by comparison of μFE simulations with experimental tests in uniaxial tension and compression. A good correspondence of stiffness and yield points between simulations and experiments was found for a wide range of bone volume fraction and degree of anisotropy in both tension and compression using a non-calibrated, average set of material parameters. These results demonstrate the ability of the model to capture the effects leading to failure of bone for three anatomical sites and several donors, which may be used to determine the apparent behavior of trabecular bone and its evolution with age, disease, and treatment in the future.

Privacy-preserving genomic testing in the clinic: a model using HIV treatment

PURPOSE The implementation of genomic-based medicine is hindered by unresolved questions regarding data privacy and delivery of interpreted results to health-care practitioners. We used DNA-based prediction of HIV-related outcomes as a model to explore critical issues in clinical genomics. METHODS We genotyped 4,149 markers in HIV-positive individuals. Variants allowed for prediction of 17 traits relevant to HIV medical care, inference of patient ancestry, and imputation of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) types. Genetic data were processed under a privacy-preserving framework using homomorphic encryption, and clinical reports describing potentially actionable results were delivered to health-care providers. RESULTS A total of 230 patients were included in the study. We demonstrated the feasibility of encrypting a large number of genetic markers, inferring patient ancestry, computing monogenic and polygenic trait risks, and reporting results under privacy-preserving conditions. The average execution time of a multimarker test on encrypted data was 865 ms on a standard computer. The proportion of tests returning potentially actionable genetic results ranged from 0 to 54%. CONCLUSIONS The model of implementation presented herein informs on strategies to deliver genomic test results for clinical care. Data encryption to ensure privacy helps to build patient trust, a key requirement on the road to genomic-based medicine.Genet Med advance online publication 14 January 2016Genetics in Medicine (2016); doi:10.1038/gim.2015.167.

Properties of granular analogue model materials: A community wide survey

We report the material properties of 26 granular analogue materials used in 14 analogue modelling laboratories. We determined physical characteristics such as bulk density, grain size distribution, and grain shape, and performed ring shear tests to determine friction angles and cohesion, and uniaxial compression tests to evaluate the compaction behaviour. Mean grain size of the materials varied between c. 100 and 400 μm. Analysis of grain shape factors shows that the four different classes of granular materials (14 quartz sands, 5 dyed quartz sands, 4 heavy mineral sands and 3 size fractions of glass beads) can be broadly divided into two groups consisting of 12 angular and 14 rounded materials. Grain shape has an influence on friction angles, with most angular materials having higher internal friction angles (between c. 35° and 40°) than rounded materials, whereas well-rounded glass beads have the lowest internal friction angles (between c. 25° and 30°). We interpret this as an effect of intergranular sliding versus rolling. Most angular materials have also higher basal friction angles (tested for a specific foil) than more rounded materials, suggesting that angular grains scratch and wear the foil. Most materials have an internal cohesion in the order of 20–100 Pa except for well-rounded glass beads, which show a trend towards a quasi-cohesionless (C < 20 Pa) Coulomb-type material. The uniaxial confined compression tests reveal that rounded grains generally show less compaction than angular grains. We interpret this to be related to the initial packing density after sifting, which is higher for rounded grains than for angular grains. Ring-shear test data show that angular grains undergo a longer strain-hardening phase than more rounded materials. This might explain why analogue models consisting of angular grains accommodate deformation in a more distributed manner prior to strain localisation than models consisting of rounded grains.