Cascading climate effects and related ecological consequences during past centuries

The interface between climate and ecosystem structure and function is incompletely understood, partly because few ecological records start before the recent warming phase. Here, we analyse an exceptional 100-yr long record of the great tit (Parus major) population in Switzerland in relation to climate and habitat phenology. Using structural equation analysis, we demonstrate an uninterrupted cascade of significant influences of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (North-Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, and North-sea – Caspian Pattern, NCP) on habitat and breeding phenology, and further on fitness-relevant life history traits within great tit populations. We then apply the relationships of this analysis to reconstruct the circulation-driven component of fluctuations in great tit breeding phenology and productivity on the basis of new seasonal NAO and NCP indices back to 1500 AD. According to the structural equation model, the multi-decadal oscillation of the atmospheric circulation likely led to substantial variation in habitat phenology, productivity and consequently, tit population fluctuations with minima during the "Maunder Minimum" (∼ 1650–1720) and the Little Ice Age Type Event I (1810–1850). The warming since 1975 was not only related with a quick shift towards earlier breeding, but also with the highest productivity since 1500, and thus, the impact of the NAO and NCP has contributed to an unprecedented increase of the population. A verification of the structural equation model against two independent data series (1970–2000 and 1750–1900) corroborates that the retrospective model reliably depicts the major long-term NAO/NCP impact on ecosystem parameters. The results suggest a complex cascade of climate effects beginning at a global scale and ending at the level of individual life histories. This sheds light on how large-scale climate conditions substantially affect major life history parameters within a population, and thus influence key ecosystem parameters at the scale of centuries.

Livelihoods in Transition: Changing Land Use Strategies and Ecological Implications in a Post Soviet Setting (Kyrgyzstan)

The sudden independence of Kyrgyzstan from the Soviet Union in 1991 led to a total rupture of industrial and agricultural production. Based on empirical data, this study seeks to identify key land use transformation processes since the late 1980s, their impact on people's livelihoods and the implication for natural resources in the communes of Tosh Bulak and Saz, located in the Sokuluk River Basin on the northern slope of the Kyrgyz Range. Using the concept of the sustainable livelihood approach as an analytical framework, three different livelihood strategies were identified: (1) An accumulation strategy applied by wealthy households where renting and/or buying of land is a key element; they are the only household category capable of venturing into rain fed agriculture. (2) A preserving strategy involving mainly intermediate households who are not able to buy or rent additional agricultural land; very often they are forced to return their land to the commune or sell it to wealthier households. (3) A coping strategy including mainly poor households consisting of elderly pensioners or headed by single mothers; due to their limited labour and economic power, agricultural production is very low and hardly covers subsistence needs; pensions and social allowances form the backbone of these livelihoods. Ecological assessments have shown that the forage productivity of remote high mountain pastures has increased from 5 to 22 per cent since 1978. At the same time forage productivity on pre-mountain and mountain pastures close to villages has generally decreased from 1 to 34 per cent. It seems that the main avenues for livelihoods to increase their wealth are to be found in the agricultural sector by controlling more and mainly irrigated land as well as by increasing livestock. The losers in this process are thus those households unable to keep or exploit their arable land or to benefit from new agricultural land. Ensuring access to land for the poor is therefore imperative in order to combat rural poverty and socio-economic disparities in rural Kyrgyzstan.

Ecological study of the predictors of successful management of dyslipidemia in HIV-infected patients on ART: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

PURPOSE: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) may induce metabolic changes and increase the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Based on a health care system approach, we investigated predictors for normalization of dyslipidemia in HIV-infected individuals receiving ART. METHOD: Individuals included in the study were registered in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS), had dyslipidemia but were not on lipid-lowering medication, were on potent ART for >or= 3 months, and had >or= 2 follow-up visits. Dyslipidemia was defined as two consecutive total cholesterol (TC) values above recommended levels. Predictors of achieving treatment goals for TC were assessed using Cox models. RESULTS: Analysis included 958 individuals with median followup of 2.3 years (IQR 1.2-4.0). 454 patients (47.4%) achieved TC treatment goals. In adjusted analyses, variables significantly associated with a lower hazard of reaching TC treatment goals were as follows: older age (compared to 18-37 year olds: hazard ratio [HR] 0.62 for 45-52 year olds, 95% CI 0.47-0.82; HR 0.40 for 53-85, 95% CI 0.29-0.54), diabetes (HR 0.39, 95% CI 0.26-0.59), history of coronary heart disease (HR 0.27, 95% CI 0.10-0.71), higher baseline TC (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.71-0.85), baseline triple nucleoside regimen (HR 0.12 compared to PI-only regimen, 95% CI 0.07-0.21), longer time on PI-only regimen (HR 0.39, 95% CI 0.33-0.46), longer time on NNRTI only regimen (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.29-0.43), and longer time on PI/NNRTI regimen (HR 0.34, 95% CI 0.26-0.43). Switching ART regimen when viral load was undetectable was associated with a higher hazard of reaching TC treatment goals (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.14-1.91). CONCLUSION: In SHCS participants on ART, several ART-related and not ART-related epidemiological factors were associated with insufficient control of dyslipidemia. Control of dyslipidemia in ART recipients must be further improved.

Divergence along a steep ecological gradient in lake whitefish (Coregonus sp.)

To understand mechanisms structuring diversity in young adaptive radiations, quantitative and unbiased information about genetic and phenotypic diversity is much needed. Here, we present the first in-depth investigation of whitefish diversity in a Swiss lake, with continuous spawning habitat sampling in both time and space. Our results show a clear cline like pattern in genetics and morphology of populations sampled along an ecological depth gradient in Lake Neuchâtel. Divergent natural selection appears to be involved in shaping this cline given that trait specific P(ST)-values are significantly higher than F(ST)-values when comparing populations caught at different depths. These differences also tend to increase with increasing differences in depth, indicating adaptive divergence along a depth gradient, which persists despite considerable gene flow between adjacent demes. It however remains unclear, whether the observed pattern is a result of currently stable selection-gene flow balance, incipient speciation, or reverse speciation due to anthropogenic habitat alteration causing two formerly divergent species to collapse into a single gene pool.

Ecological explanations for (incomplete) speciation

Divergent natural selection has been shown to promote speciation in many taxa. However, although divergent selection often initiates the process of speciation, it often fails to complete it. Several time-based, geographic and genetic factors have been recognized to explain this variability in how far speciation proceeds. We review here recent evidence indicating that variability in the completeness of speciation can also be associated with the nature of divergent selection itself, with speciation being greatly promoted by (i) stronger selection on a given, single trait (the 'stronger selection' hypothesis) and (ii) selection on a greater number of traits (the 'multifarious selection' hypothesis). However, evidence for each selective hypothesis is still scarce, and further work is required to determine their relative importance.

Genetic diversity and ecological success of Staphylococcus aureus strains colonizing humans

The genetic determinants and phenotypic traits which make a Staphylococcus aureus strain a successful colonizer are largely unknown. The genetic diversity and population structure of 133 S. aureus isolates from healthy, generally risk-free adult carriers were investigated using four different typing methods: multilocus sequence typing (MLST), amplified fragment length polymorphism analysis (AFLP), double-locus sequence typing (DLST), and spa typing were compared. Carriage isolates displayed great genetic diversity which could only be revealed fully by DLST. Results of AFLP and MLST were highly concordant in the delineation of genotypic clusters of closely related isolates, roughly equivalent to clonal complexes. spa typing and DLST provided considerably less phylogenetic information. The resolution of spa typing was similar to that of AFLP and inferior to that of DLST. AFLP proved to be the most universal method, combining a phylogeny-building capacity similar to that of MLST with a much higher resolution. However, it had a lower reproducibility than sequencing-based MLST, DLST, and spa typing. We found two cases of methicillin-resistant S. aureus colonization, both of which were most likely associated with employment at a health service. Of 21 genotypic clusters detected, 2 were most prevalent: cluster 45 and cluster 30 each colonized 24% of the carrier population. The number of bacteria found in nasal samples varied significantly among the clusters, but the most prevalent clusters were not particularly numerous in the nasal samples. We did not find much evidence that genotypic clusters were associated with different carrier characteristics, such as age, sex, medical conditions, or antibiotic use. This may provide empirical support for the idea that genetic clusters in bacteria are maintained in the absence of adaptation to different niches. Alternatively, carrier characteristics other than those evaluated here or factors other than human hosts may exert selective pressure maintaining genotypic clusters.