An Early-Warning System for Hypo-/Hyperglycemic Events Based on Fusion of Adaptive Prediction Models

Introduction: Early warning of future hypoglycemic and hyperglycemic events can improve the safety of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients. The aim of this study is to design and evaluate a hypoglycemia / hyperglycemia early warning system (EWS) for T1DM patients under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy. Methods: The EWS is based on the combination of data-driven online adaptive prediction models and a warning algorithm. Three modeling approaches have been investigated: (i) autoregressive (ARX) models, (ii) auto-regressive with an output correction module (cARX) models, and (iii) recurrent neural network (RNN) models. The warning algorithm performs postprocessing of the models′ outputs and issues alerts if upcoming hypoglycemic/hyperglycemic events are detected. Fusion of the cARX and RNN models, due to their complementary prediction performances, resulted in the hybrid autoregressive with an output correction module/recurrent neural network (cARN)-based EWS. Results: The EWS was evaluated on 23 T1DM patients under SAP therapy. The ARX-based system achieved hypoglycemic (hyperglycemic) event prediction with median values of accuracy of 100.0% (100.0%), detection time of 10.0 (8.0) min, and daily false alarms of 0.7 (0.5). The respective values for the cARX-based system were 100.0% (100.0%), 17.5 (14.8) min, and 1.5 (1.3) and, for the RNN-based system, were 100.0% (92.0%), 8.4 (7.0) min, and 0.1 (0.2). The hybrid cARN-based EWS presented outperforming results with 100.0% (100.0%) prediction accuracy, detection 16.7 (14.7) min in advance, and 0.8 (0.8) daily false alarms. Conclusion: Combined use of cARX and RNN models for the development of an EWS outperformed the single use of each model, achieving accurate and prompt event prediction with few false alarms, thus providing increased safety and comfort.

Multi-Model Data Fusion to Improve an Early Warning System for Hypo-/Hyperglycemic Events

Correct predictions of future blood glucose levels in individuals with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) can be used to provide early warning of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events and thus to improve the patient's safety. To increase prediction accuracy and efficiency, various approaches have been proposed which combine multiple predictors to produce superior results compared to single predictors. Three methods for model fusion are presented and comparatively assessed. Data from 23 T1D subjects under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy were used in two adaptive data-driven models (an autoregressive model with output correction - cARX, and a recurrent neural network - RNN). Data fusion techniques based on i) Dempster-Shafer Evidential Theory (DST), ii) Genetic Algorithms (GA), and iii) Genetic Programming (GP) were used to merge the complimentary performances of the prediction models. The fused output is used in a warning algorithm to issue alarms of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events. The fusion schemes showed improved performance with lower root mean square errors, lower time lags, and higher correlation. In the warning algorithm, median daily false alarms (DFA) of 0.25%, and 100% correct alarms (CA) were obtained for both event types. The detection times (DT) before occurrence of events were 13.0 and 12.1 min respectively for hypo-/hyperglycemic events. Compared to the cARX and RNN models, and a linear fusion of the two, the proposed fusion schemes represents a significant improvement.

A Review of General Physical and Chemical Processes Related to Plasma Sources and Losses for Solar System Magnetospheres

The aim of this paper is to provide a review of general processes related to plasma sources, their transport, energization, and losses in the planetary magnetospheres. We provide background information as well as the most up-to-date knowledge of the comparative studies of planetary magnetospheres, with a focus on the plasma supply to each region of the magnetospheres. This review also includes the basic equations and modeling methods commonly used to simulate the plasma sources of the planetary magnetospheres. In this paper, we will describe basic and common processes related to plasma supply to each region of the planetary magnetospheres in our solar system. First, we will describe source processes in Sect. 1. Then the transport and energization processes to supply those source plasmas to various regions of the magnetosphere are described in Sect. 2. Loss processes are also important to understand the plasma population in the magnetosphere and Sect. 3 is dedicated to the explanation of the loss processes. In Sect. 4, we also briefly summarize the basic equations and modeling methods with a focus on plasma supply processes for planetary magnetospheres.

Origin and history of ureilitic material in the solar system: The view from asteroid 2008 TC3 and the Almahata Sitta meteorite

Asteroid 2008 TC3 (approximately 4m diameter) was tracked and studied in space for approximately 19h before it impacted Earth's atmosphere, shattering at 44-36km altitude. The recovered samples (>680 individual rocks) comprise the meteorite Almahata Sitta (AhS). Approximately 50-70% of these are ureilites (ultramafic achondrites). The rest are chondrites, mainly enstatite, ordinary, and Rumuruti types. The goal of this work is to understand how fragments of so many different types of parent bodies became mixed in the same asteroid. Almahata Sitta has been classified as a polymict ureilite with an anomalously high component of foreign clasts. However, we calculate that the mass of fallen material was 0.1% of the pre-atmospheric mass of the asteroid. Based on published data for the reflectance spectrum of the asteroid and laboratory spectra of the samples, we infer that the lost material was mostly ureilitic. Therefore, 2008 TC3 probably contained only a few percent nonureilitic materials, similar to other polymict ureilites except less well consolidated. From available data for the AhS meteorite fragments, we conclude that 2008 TC3 samples essentially the same range of types of ureilitic and nonureilitic materials as other polymict ureilites. We therefore suggest that the immediate parent of 2008 TC3 was the immediate parent of all ureilitic material sampled on Earth. We trace critical stages in the evolution of that material through solar system history. Based on various types of new modeling and re-evaluation of published data, we propose the following scenario. (1) The ureilite parent body (UPB) accreted 0.5-0.6Ma after formation of calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions (CAI), beyond the ice line (outer asteroid belt). Differentiation began approximately 1Ma after CAI. (2) The UPB was catastrophically disrupted by a major impact approximately 5Ma after CAI, with selective subsets of the fragments reassembling into daughter bodies. (3) Either the UPB (before breakup), or one of its daughters (after breakup), migrated to the inner belt due to scattering by massive embryos. (4) One daughter (after forming in or migrating to the inner belt) became the parent of 2008 TC3. It developed a regolith, mostly 3.8Ga ago. Clasts of enstatite, ordinary, and Rumuruti-type chondrites were implanted by low-velocity collisions. (5) Recently, the daughter was disrupted. Fragments were injected or drifted into Earth-crossing orbits. 2008 TC3 comes from outer layers of regolith, other polymict ureilites from deeper regolith, and main group ureilites from the interior of this body. In contrast to other models that have been proposed, this model invokes a stochastic history to explain the unique diversity of foreign materials in 2008 TC3 and other polymict ureilites.

The isotope composition of selenium in chondrites constrains the depletion mechanism of volatile elements in solar system materials

Solar nebula processes led to a depletion of volatile elements in different chondrite groups when compared to the bulk chemical composition of the solar system deduced from the Sun's photosphere. For moderately-volatile elements, this depletion primarily correlates with the element condensation temperature and is possibly caused by incomplete condensation from a hot solar nebula, evaporative loss from the precursor dust, and/or inherited from the interstellar medium. Element concentrations and interelement ratios of volatile elements do not provide a clear picture about responsible mechanisms. Here, the abundance and stable isotope composition of the moderately- to highly-volatile element Se are investigated in carbonaceous, ordinary, and enstatite chondrites to constrain the mechanism responsible for the depletion of volatile elements in planetary bodies of the inner solar system and to define a δ(82/78)Se value for the bulk solar system. The δ(82/78)Se of the studied chondrite falls are identical within their measurement uncertainties with a mean of −0.20±0.26‰ (2 s.d., n=14n=14, relative to NIST SRM 3149) despite Se abundance depletions of up to a factor of 2.5 with respect to the CI group. The absence of resolvable Se isotope fractionation rules out a kinetic Rayleigh-type incomplete condensation of Se from the hot solar nebula or partial kinetic evaporative loss on the precursor material and/or the parent bodies. The Se depletion, if acquired during partial condensation or evaporative loss, therefore must have occurred under near equilibrium conditions to prevent measurable isotope fractionation. Alternatively, the depletion and cooling of the nebula could have occurred simultaneously due to the continuous removal of gas and fine particles by the solar wind accompanied by the quantitative condensation of elements from the pre-depleted gas. In this scenario the condensation of elements does not require equilibrium conditions to avoid isotope fractionation. The results further suggest that the processes causing the high variability of Se concentrations and depletions in ordinary and enstatite chondrites did not involve any measurable isotope fractionation. Different degrees of element depletions and isotope fractionations of the moderately-volatile elements Zn, S, and Se in ordinary and enstatite chondrites indicate that their volatility is controlled by the thermal stabilities of their host phases and not by the condensation temperature under canonical nebular conditions.

Evidence for extinct Cs-135 from Ba isotopes in Allende CAIs?

he abundance and distribution of isotopes throughout the Solar System can be used to constrain the number and type of nucleosynthetic events that contributed material to the early nebula. Barium is particularly well suited to quantifying the degree of isotope heterogeneity in the Solar System because it comprises seven stable isotopes that were synthesized by three different nucleosynthetic processes (s-, r-, and p-processes), all of which contributed material to the Solar System. There is also potential contribution to 135Ba from short-lived radioisotope 135Cs, conclusive evidence for which is yet to be reported. Four Allende (CV3) Ca,Al-rich inclusions (CAI 1, CAI 2, CAI 4, CAI 5) and one Allende dark inclusion (DI) were analyzed for Ba isotope variability. Two CAIs (CAI 2 and CAI 5) display 135Ba excesses that are not accompanied by 137Ba anomalies. Calcium–aluminum-rich inclusion 1 displays a 135Ba excess that is possibly coupled with a 137Ba excess, and the remaining refractory inclusions (CAI 2 and DI) have terrestrial Ba isotope compositions. These Ba isotope data are presented in conjunction with published whole rock Ba isotope data from individual Allende CAIs. The enrichment in 135Ba and absence of coupled 137Ba excesses in CAI 2 and CAI 5 is interpreted to indicate that the anomalies are not purely nucleosynthetic in origin but also contain contributions (16–48 ppm) from the decay of short-lived 135Cs. The majority of Allende CAIs studied to date may also have similar contributions from 135Cs on the basis of higher than expected 135Ba excesses if the Ba isotope anomalies were purely nucleosynthetic in origin. The 135Ba anomalies appear not to be coupled with superchondritic Cs/Ba, which may imply that the contribution to 135Ba did not occur via in situ decay of live 135Cs. However, it is feasible that the CAIs had a superchondritic Cs/Ba during decay of 135Cs, but Cs was subsequently removed from the system during aqueous alteration on the parent body. An alternative scenario is the potential existence of a transient high-temperature reservoir having superchondritic Cs/Ba in the early Solar System while 135Cs was extant, which enabled a radiogenic 135Ba signature to develop in some early condensates. The nucleosynthetic source of 135Cs can be determined by reconciling the predicted astrophysical 135Cs abundance with its measured abundance in meteorites. Further, the currently accepted initial 135Cs/133Cs of the Solar System, [135Cs/133Cs]0, may be underestimated because the spread of Cs/Ba among samples is small and the range of excess 135Ba is limited thus leading to inaccuracies when estimating [135Cs/133Cs]0. If the initial meteoritic abundance of 135Cs was indeed higher than is currently thought, the most probable stellar source of short-lived radioisotopes was a nearby core-collapse supernova and/or the Wolf–Rayet wind driven by its progenitor.

A new Time-Of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (TOF-MS) for noble gas analysis

Noble gas analysis in early solar system materials, which can provide valuable information about early solar system processes and timescales, are very challenging because of extremely low noble gas concentrations (ppt). We therefore developed a new compact sized (33 cm length, 7.2cm diameter, 1.3 L internal volume) Time-of-Flight (TOF) noble gas mass spectrometer for high sensitivity. We call it as Edel Gas Time-of-flight (EGT) mass spectrometer. The instrument uses electron impact ionization coupled to an ion trap, which allows us to ionize and measure all noble gas isotopes. Using a reflectron set-up improves the mass resolution. In addition, the reflectron set-up also enables some extra focusing. The detection is via MCPs and the signals are processed either via ADC or TDC systems. The objective of this work is to understand the newly developed Time-Of-Flight (TOF) mass spectrometer for noble gas analysis in presolar grains of the meteorites. Chapter 1 briefly introduces the basic idea and importance of the instrument. The physics relevant to time-of-flight mass spectrometry technique is discussed in the Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 will present the oxidation technique of nanodiamonds of the presolar grains by using copper oxide. Chapter 4 will present the details about EGT data analysis software. Chapter 5 and Chapter 6 will explain the details about EGT design and operation. Finally, the performance results will be presented and discussed in the Chapter 7, and whole work is summarized in Chapter 8 and also outlook of the future work is given.

Time variability and heterogeneity in the coma of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

Comets contain the best-preserved material from the beginning of our planetary system. Their nuclei and comae composition reveal clues about physical and chemical conditions during the early solar system when comets formed. ROSINA (Rosetta Orbiter Spectrometer for Ion and Neutral Analysis) onboard the Rosetta spacecraft has measured the coma composition of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko with well-sampled time resolution per rotation. Measurements were made over many comet rotation periods and a wide range of latitudes. These measurements show large fluctuations in composition in a heterogeneous coma that has diurnal and possibly seasonal variations in the major outgassing species: water, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide. These results indicate a complex coma-nucleus relationship where seasonal variations may be driven by temperature differences just below the comet surface.

Interaction of the solar wind with them Moon: An overview on the results from the SARA experiment aboard Chandrayaan-1

The results from the Sub-keV Atom Reflecting Analyzer (SARA) experiment onboard Chandrayaan-1 have revealed several hitherto unknown and interesting aspects about the interaction of solar wind with the Moon. The SARA experiment had two sensors — CENA and SWIM. The Chandrayaan-1 energetic neutrals analyzer (CENA), detected energetic neutral atoms (ENAs), and the Solar Wind Monitor (SWIM) measured ions of solar wind origin. In this review, we summarize the observations made by the SARA experiment, which are: (1) substantial (~20%) and sustained backscattering of solar wind protons from lunar surface as energetic neutral hydrogen,1 (2) minimagnetosphere around magnetic anomalies on Moon using the backscattered ENAs,2 (3) reflection of solar wind protons from the Moon surface,3 (4) huge (~50%) deflection of solar wind protons over strong magnetic anomalies,4 and (5) presence of protons in the near-lunar plasma wake.5 These results have implications on the lunar plasma environment, implantation of solar wind hydrogen on lunar surface, and behavior of small scale magnetic anomalies on planetary bodies. The SARA observations suggest that similar processes may happen on other airless bodies covered with regolith in the solar system as well as in extra-solar system. This paper presents a review of the results obtained from the SARA observation.

Reflection of solar wind hydrogen from the lunar surface

The solar wind continuously flows out from the Sun and directly interacts with the surfaces of dust and airless planetary bodies throughout the solar system. A significant fraction of solar wind ions reflect from an object's surface as energetic neutral atoms (ENAs). ENA emission from the Moon was first observed during commissioning of the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) mission on 3 December 2008. We present the analysis of 10 additional IBEX observations of the Moon while it was illuminated by the solar wind. For the viewing geometry and energy range (> 250 eV) of the IBEX-Hi ENA imager, we find that the spectral shape of the ENA emission from the Moon is well-represented by a linearly decreasing flux with increasing energy. The fraction of the incident solar wind ions reflected as ENAs, which is the ENA albedo and defined quantitatively as the ENA reflection coefficient RN, depends on the incident solar wind speed, ranging from ~0.2 for slow solar wind to ~0.08 for fast solar wind. The average energy per incident solar wind ion that is reflected to space is 30 eV for slow solar wind and 45 eV for fast solar wind. Once ionized, these ENAs can become pickup ions in the solar wind with a unique spectral signature that reaches 3vSW. These results apply beyond the solar system; the reflection process heats plasmas that have significant bulk flow relative to interstellar dust and cools plasmas having no net bulk flow relative to the dust.

Theoretical models of planetary system formation: mass vs. semi-major axis

Context. Planet formation models have been developed during the past years to try to reproduce what has been observed of both the solar system and the extrasolar planets. Some of these models have partially succeeded, but they focus on massive planets and, for the sake of simplicity, exclude planets belonging to planetary systems. However, more and more planets are now found in planetary systems. This tendency, which is a result of radial velocity, transit, and direct imaging surveys, seems to be even more pronounced for low-mass planets. These new observations require improving planet formation models, including new physics, and considering the formation of systems. Aims: In a recent series of papers, we have presented some improvements in the physics of our models, focussing in particular on the internal structure of forming planets, and on the computation of the excitation state of planetesimals and their resulting accretion rate. In this paper, we focus on the concurrent effect of the formation of more than one planet in the same protoplanetary disc and show the effect, in terms of architecture and composition of this multiplicity. Methods: We used an N-body calculation including collision detection to compute the orbital evolution of a planetary system. Moreover, we describe the effect of competition for accretion of gas and solids, as well as the effect of gravitational interactions between planets. Results: We show that the masses and semi-major axes of planets are modified by both the effect of competition and gravitational interactions. We also present the effect of the assumed number of forming planets in the same system (a free parameter of the model), as well as the effect of the inclination and eccentricity damping. We find that the fraction of ejected planets increases from nearly 0 to 8% as we change the number of embryos we seed the system with from 2 to 20 planetary embryos. Moreover, our calculations show that, when considering planets more massive than ~5 M⊕, simulations with 10 or 20 planetary embryos statistically give the same results in terms of mass function and period distribution.

REE and Hf distribution among mineral phases in the CV-CK clan : a way to explain present-day Hf isotopic variations in chondrites

Chondrites are among the most primitive objects in the Solar System and constitute the main building blocks of telluric planets. Among the radiochronometers currently used for dating geological events, Sm–Nd and Lu–Hf are both composed of refractory, lithophile element. They are thought to behave similarly as the parent elements (Sm and Lu) are generally less incompatible than the daughter elements (Nd and Hf) during geological processes. As such, their respective average isotopic compositions for the solar system should be well defined by the average of chondrites, called Chondritic Uniform Reservoir (CHUR). However, while the Sm–Nd isotopic system shows an actual spread of less than 4% in the average chondritic record, the Lu–Hf system shows a larger variation range of 28% [Bouvier A., Vervoort J. D. and Patchett P. J. (2008) The Lu–Hf and Sm–Nd isotopic composition of CHUR: Constraints from unequilibrated chondrites and implications for the bulk composition of terrestrial planets. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett.273, 48–57]. To better understand the contrast between Sm–Nd and Lu–Hf systems, the REE and Hf distribution among mineral phases during metamorphism of Karoonda (CK) and Vigarano-type (CV) carbonaceous chondrites has been examined. Mineral modes were determined from elemental mapping on a set of five CK chondrites (from types 3–6) and one CV3 chondrite. Trace-element patterns are obtained for the first time in all the chondrite-forming minerals of a given class (CK chondrites) as well as one CV3 sample. This study reveals that REE are distributed among both phosphates and silicates. Only 30–50% of Sm and Nd are stored in phosphates (at least in chondrites types 3–5); as such, they are not mobilized during early stages of metamorphism. The remaining fraction of Sm and Nd is distributed among the same mineral phases; these elements are therefore not decoupled during metamorphism. Of the whole-rock total of Lu, the fraction held in phosphate decreases significantly as the degree of metamorphism increases (30% for types 3 and 4, less than 5% in type 6). In contrast to Lu, Hf is mainly hosted by silicates with little contribution from phosphates throughout the CK metamorphic sequence. A significant part of Sm and Nd are stored in phosphates in types 3–5, and these elements behave similarly during CK chondrite metamorphism. That explains the robustness of the Sm/Nd ratios in chondrites through metamorphism, and the slight discrepancies observed in the present-day isotopic Nd values in chondrites. On the contrary, Lu and Hf are borne by several different minerals and consequently they are redistributed during metamorphism–induced recrystallization. The Lu/Hf ratios are therefore significantly disturbed during chondrites metamorphism, leading to the high discrepancies observed in present-day Hf isotopic values in chondrites.

Modeled Interaction of Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko with the Solar Wind Inside 2 AU

Periodic comets move around the Sun on elliptical orbits. As such comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (hereafter 67P) spends a portion of time in the inner solar system where it is exposed to increased solar insolation. Therefore given the change in heliocentric distance, in case of 67P from aphelion at 5.68 AU to perihelion at ~1.24 AU, the comet’s activity—the production of neutral gas and dust—undergoes significant variations. As a consequence, during the inbound portion, the mass loading of the solar wind increases and extends to larger spatial scales. This paper investigates how this interaction changes the character of the plasma environment of the comet by means of multifluid MHD simulations. The multifluid MHD model is capable of separating the dynamics of the solar wind ions and the pick-up ions created through photoionization and electron impact ionization in the coma of the comet. We show how two of the major boundaries, the bow shock and the diamagnetic cavity, form and develop as the comet moves through the inner solar system. Likewise for 67P, although most likely shifted back in time with respect to perihelion passage, this process is reversed on the outbound portion of the orbit. The presented model herein is able to reproduce some of the key features previously only accessible to particle-based models that take full account of the ions’ gyration. The results shown herein are in decent agreement to these hybrid-type kinetic simulations.