Alarm systems and catastrophes from a diverse point of view

Using a chain of urns, we build a Bayesian nonparametric alarm system to predict catastrophic events, such as epidemics, black outs, etc. Differently from other alarm systems in the literature, our model is constantly updated on the basis of the available information, according to the Bayesian paradigm. The papers contains both theoretical and empirical results. In particular, we test our alarm system on a well-known time series of sunspots.

Flow disturbances in stent-related coronary evaginations: a computational fluid-dynamic simulation study

Aims: Angiographic ectasias and aneurysms in stented segments have been associated with late stent thrombosis. Using optical coherence tomography (OCT), some stented segments show coronary evaginations reminiscent of ectasias. The purpose of this study was to explore, using computational fluid-dynamic (CFD) simulations, whether OCT-detected coronary evaginations can induce local changes in blood flow. Methods and results: OCT-detected evaginations are defined as outward bulges in the luminal vessel contour between struts, with the depth of the bulge exceeding the actual strut thickness. Evaginations can be characterised cross ectionally by depth and along the stented segment by total length. Assuming an ellipsoid shape, we modelled 3-D evaginations with different sizes by varying the depth from 0.2-1.0 mm, and the length from 1-9 mm. For the flow simulation we used average flow velocity data from non-diseased coronary arteries. The change in flow with varying evagination sizes was assessed using a particle tracing test where the particle transit time within the segment with evagination was compared with that of a control vessel. The presence of the evagination caused a delayed particle transit time which increased with the evagination size. The change in flow consisted locally of recirculation within the evagination, as well as flow deceleration due to a larger lumen - seen as a deflection of flow towards the evagination. Conclusions: CFD simulation of 3-D evaginations and blood flow suggests that evaginations affect flow locally, with a flow disturbance that increases with increasing evagination size.

Computational tools to investigate genetic cardiac channelopathies

The aim of this perspective article is to share with the community of ion channel scientists our thoughts and expectations regarding the increasing role that computational tools will play in the future of our field. The opinions and comments detailed here are the result of a 3-day long international exploratory workshop that took place in October 2013 and that was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation.

Computational and experimental methodology for site-matched investigations of the influence of mineral mass fraction and collagen orientation on the axial indentation modulus of lamellar bone

Relationships between mineralization, collagen orientation and indentation modulus were investigated in bone structural units from the mid-shaft of human femora using a site-matched design. Mineral mass fraction, collagen fibril angle and indentation moduli were measured in registered anatomical sites using backscattered electron imaging, polarized light microscopy and nano-indentation, respectively. Theoretical indentation moduli were calculated with a homogenization model from the quantified mineral densities and mean collagen fibril orientations. The average indentation moduli predicted based on local mineralization and collagen fibers arrangement were not significantly different from the average measured experimentally with nanoindentation (p=0.9). Surprisingly, no substantial correlation of the measured indentation moduli with tissue mineralization and/or collagen fiber arrangement was found. Nano-porosity, micro-damage, collagen cross-links, non-collagenous proteins or other parameters affect the indentation measurements. Additional testing/simulation methods need to be considered to properly understand the variability of indentation moduli, beyond the mineralization and collagen arrangement in bone structural units.

SUSYFLAVOR v2: A Computational tool for FCNC and CP-violating processes in the MSSM

We present SUSY_FLAVOR version 2 — a Fortran 77 program that calculates low-energy flavor observables in the general R-parity conserving MSSM. For a set of MSSM parameters as input, the code gives predictions for: 1. Electric dipole moments of the leptons and the neutron. 2. Anomalous magnetic moments (i.e. g − 2) of the leptons. 3. Radiative lepton decays (μ → eγ and τ → μγ , eγ ). 4. Rare Kaon decays (K0 L → π0 ¯νν and K+ → π+ ¯νν). 5. Leptonic B decays (Bs,d → l+l−, B → τ ν and B → Dτ ν). 6. Radiative B decays (B → ¯ Xsγ ). 7. ΔF = 2 processes ( ¯ K0–K0, ¯D–D, ¯Bd–Bd and ¯Bs–Bs mixing). Comparing to SUSY_FLAVOR v1, where the matching conditions were calculated strictly at one-loop level, SUSY_FLAVOR v2 performs the resummation of all chirally enhanced corrections, i.e. takes into account the enhanced effects from tan β and/or large trilinear soft mixing terms to all orders in perturbation theory. Also, in SUSY_FLAVOR v2 new routines calculation of B → (D)τ ν, g − 2, radiative lepton decays and Br(l → l′γ ) were added. All calculations are done using exact diagonalization of the sfermion mass matrices. The program can be obtained from http://www.fuw.edu.pl/susy_flavor.

A longitudinal study of Type-B aortic dissection and endovascular repair scenarios: computational analyses

Conservative medical treatment is commonly first recommended for patients with uncomplicated Type-B aortic dissection (AD). However, if dissection-related complications occur, endovascular repair or open surgery is performed. Here we establish computational models of AD based on radiological three-dimensional images of a patient at initial presentation and after 4-years of best medical treatment (BMT). Computational fluid dynamics analyses are performed to quantitatively investigate the hemodynamic features of AD. Entry and re-entries (functioning as entries and outlets) are identified in the initial and follow-up models, and obvious variations of the inter-luminal flow exchange are revealed. Computational studies indicate that the reduction of blood pressure in BMT patients lowers pressure and wall shear stress in the thoracic aorta in general, and flattens the pressure distribution on the outer wall of the dissection, potentially reducing the progressive enlargement of the false lumen. Finally, scenario studies of endovascular aortic repair are conducted. The results indicate that, for patients with multiple tears, stent-grafts occluding all re-entries would be required to effectively reduce inter-luminal blood communication and thus induce thrombosis in the false lumen. This implicates that computational flow analyses may identify entries and relevant re-entries between true and false lumen and potentially assist in stent-graft planning.

The Web KnowARR Framework: Orchestrating Computational Intelligence with Graph Databases

This chapter presents fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) as a vehicle for Web knowledge aggregation, representation, and reasoning. The corresponding Web KnowARR framework incorporates findings from fuzzy logic. To this end, a first emphasis is particularly on the Web KnowARR framework along with a stakeholder management use case to illustrate the framework’s usefulness as a second focal point. This management form is to help projects to acceptance and assertiveness where claims for company decisions are actively involved in the management process. Stakeholder maps visually (re-) present these claims. On one hand, they resort to non-public content and on the other they resort to content that is available to the public (mostly on the Web). The Semantic Web offers opportunities not only to present public content descriptively but also to show relationships. The proposed framework can serve as the basis for the public content of stakeholder maps.

An image-based method to automatically propagate bony landmarks: application to computational spine biomechanics.

In attempts to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of spinal injuries and spinal deformities, several experimental and numerical studies have been conducted to understand the biomechanical behavior of the spine. However, numerical biomechanical studies suffer from uncertainties associated with hard- and soft-tissue anatomies. Currently, these parameters are identified manually on each mesh model prior to simulations. The determination of soft connective tissues on finite element meshes can be a tedious procedure, which limits the number of models used in the numerical studies to a few instances. In order to address these limitations, an image-based method for automatic morphing of soft connective tissues has been proposed. Results showed that the proposed method is capable to accurately determine the spatial locations of predetermined bony landmarks. The present method can be used to automatically generate patient-specific models, which may be helpful in designing studies involving a large number of instances and to understand the mechanical behavior of biomechanical structures across a given population.

Application of a computational model for complex fluvial ecosystems: The population dynamics of zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha as a case study

The potential and adaptive flexibility of population dynamic P-systems (PDP) to study population dynamics suggests that they may be suitable for modelling complex fluvial ecosystems, characterized by a composition of dynamic habitats with many variables that interact simultaneously. Using as a model a reservoir occupied by the zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha, we designed a computational model based on P systems to study the population dynamics of larvae, in order to evaluate management actions to control or eradicate this invasive species. The population dynamics of this species was simulated under different scenarios ranging from the absence of water flow change to a weekly variation with different flow rates, to the actual hydrodynamic situation of an intermediate flow rate. Our results show that PDP models can be very useful tools to model complex, partially desynchronized, processes that work in parallel. This allows the study of complex hydroecological processes such as the one presented, where reproductive cycles, temperature and water dynamics are involved in the desynchronization of the population dynamics both, within areas and among them. The results obtained may be useful in the management of other reservoirs with similar hydrodynamic situations in which the presence of this invasive species has been documented.

Review of recent results using computational fluid dynamics simulations in patients receiving mechanical assist devices for end-stage heart failure

Many end-stage heart failure patients are not eligible to undergo heart transplantation due to organ shortage, and even those under consideration for transplantation might suffer long waiting periods. A better understanding of the hemodynamic impact of left ventricular assist devices (LVAD) on the cardiovascular system is therefore of great interest. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations give the opportunity to study the hemodynamics in this patient population using clinical imaging data such as computed tomographic angiography. This article reviews a recent study series involving patients with pulsatile and constant-flow LVAD devices in which CFD simulations were used to qualitatively and quantitatively assess blood flow dynamics in the thoracic aorta, demonstrating its potential to enhance the information available from medical imaging.