Seasonality and magnitude of floods in Switzerland under future climate change

The flood seasonality of catchments in Switzerland is likely to change under climate change because of anticipated alterations of precipitation as well as snow accumulation and melt. Information on this change is crucial for flood protection policies, for example, or regional flood frequency analysis. We analysed projected changes in mean annual and maximum floods of a 22-year period for 189 catchments in Switzerland and two scenario periods in the 21st century based on an ensemble of climate scenarios. The flood seasonality was analysed with directional statistics that allow assessing both changes in the mean date a flood occurs as well as changes in the strength of the seasonality. We found that the simulated change in flood seasonality is a function of the change in flow regime type. If snow accumulation and melt is important in a catchment during the control period, then the anticipated change in flood seasonality is most pronounced. Decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios additionally affects the flood seasonality (mean date of flood occurrence) and leads to a decreasing strength of seasonality, that is a higher temporal variability in most cases. The magnitudes of mean annual floods and more clearly of maximum floods (in a 22-year period) are expected to increase in the future because of changes in flood-generating processes and scaled extreme precipitation. Southern alpine catchments show a different signal, though: the simulated mean annual floods decrease in the far future, that is at the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Who Is in Love with Multilateralism? Treaty Commitment in the Post-Cold War Era

Since the end of the Cold War, multilateral treaties have again become a central vehicle for international cooperation. In this article, we study states’ commitment to 76 multilateral treaties concluded between 1990 and 2005. The article offers a systematic account of present-day multilateral treaty-making efforts and asks what explains variation in states’ participation as witnessed in the act of treaty ratification.We test existing explanations and provide a novel argument that accounts for the strong participation of new European democracies in multilateral treaties. We find that regime type and being part of the European Union (EU) strongly affect treaty ratification. New EU democracies, in particular, are much more likely to ratify multilateral treaties than are other new democracies.

Training in intensive care medicine. A challenge within reach.

The medical training model is currently immersed in a process of change. The new paradigm is intended to be more effective, more integrated within the healthcare system, and strongly oriented towards the direct application of knowledge to clinical practice. Compared with the established training system based on certification of the completion of a series or rotations and stays in certain healthcare units, the new model proposes a more structured training process based on the gradual acquisition of specific competences, in which residents must play an active role in designing their own training program. Training based on competences guarantees more transparent, updated and homogeneous learning of objective quality, and which can be homologated internationally. The tutors play a key role as the main directors of the process, and institutional commitment to their work is crucial. In this context, tutors should receive time and specific formation to allow the evaluation of training as the cornerstone of the new model. New forms of objective summative and training evaluation should be introduced to guarantee that the predefined competences and skills are effectively acquired. The free movement of specialists within Europe is very desirable and implies that training quality must be high and amenable to homologation among the different countries. The Competency Based training in Intensive Care Medicine in Europe program is our main reference for achieving this goal. Scientific societies in turn must impulse and facilitate all those initiatives destined to improve healthcare quality and therefore specialist training. They have the mission of designing strategies and processes that favor training, accreditation and advisory activities with the government authorities.

Development and validation of a quantitative method to assess pedicle screw loosening in posterior spine instrumentation on plain radiographs.

PURPOSE Currently, the diagnosis of pedicle screw (PS) loosening is based on a subjectively assessed halo sign, that is, a radiolucent line around the implant wider than 1 mm in plain radiographs. We aimed at development and validation of a quantitative method to diagnose PS loosening on radiographs. METHODS Between 11/2004 and 1/2010 36 consecutive patients treated with thoraco-lumbar spine fusion with PS instrumentation without PS loosening were compared with 37 other patients who developed a clinically manifesting PS loosening. Three different angles were measured and compared regarding their capability to discriminate the loosened PS over the postoperative course. The inter-observer invariance was tested and a receiver operating characteristics curve analysis was performed. RESULTS The angle measured between the PS axis and the cranial endplate was significantly different between the early and all later postoperative images. The Spearman correlation coefficient for the measurements of two observers at each postoperative time point ranged between 0.89 at 2 weeks to 0.94 at 2 months and 1 year postoperative. The angle change of 1.9° between immediate postoperative and 6-month postoperative was 75% sensitive and 89% specific for the identification of loosened screws (AUC = 0.82). DISCUSSION The angle between the PS axis and the cranial endplate showed good ability to change in PS loosening. A change of this angle of at least 2° had a relatively high sensitivity and specificity to diagnose screw loosening.

No shift to a deeper water uptake depth in response to summer drought of two lowland and sub-alpine C3-grasslands in Switzerland

Temperate C3-grasslands are of high agricultural and ecological importance in Central Europe. Plant growth and consequently grassland yields depend strongly on water supply during the growing season, which is projected to change in the future. We therefore investigated the effect of summer drought on the water uptake of an intensively managed lowland and an extensively managed sub-alpine grassland in Switzerland. Summer drought was simulated by using transparent shelters. Standing above- and belowground biomass was sampled during three growing seasons. Soil and plant xylem waters were analyzed for oxygen (and hydrogen) stable isotope ratios, and the depths of plant water uptake were estimated by two different approaches: (1) linear interpolation method and (2) Bayesian calibrated mixing model. Relative to the control, aboveground biomass was reduced under drought conditions. In contrast to our expectations, lowland grassland plants subjected to summer drought were more likely (43–68 %) to rely on water in the topsoil (0–10 cm), whereas control plants relied less on the topsoil (4–37 %) and shifted to deeper soil layers (20–35 cm) during the drought period (29–48 %). Sub-alpine grassland plants did not differ significantly in uptake depth between drought and control plots during the drought period. Both approaches yielded similar results and showed that the drought treatment in the two grasslands did not induce a shift to deeper uptake depths, but rather continued or shifted water uptake to even more shallower soil depths. These findings illustrate the importance of shallow soil depths for plant performance under drought conditions.

Thermal processing of bone: in vitro response of mesenchymal cells to bone-conditioned medium

The autoclaving, pasteurization, and freezing of bone grafts to remove bacteria and viruses, and for preservation, respectively, is considered to alter biological properties during graft consolidation. Fresh bone grafts release paracrine-like signals that are considered to support tissue regeneration. However, the impact of the autoclaving, pasteurization, and freezing of bone grafts on paracrine signals remains unknown. Therefore, conditioned medium was prepared from porcine cortical bone chips that had undergone thermal processing. The biological properties of the bone-conditioned medium were assessed by examining the changes in expression of target genes in oral fibroblasts. The data showed that conditioned medium obtained from bone chips that had undergone pasteurization and freezing changed the expression of adrenomedullin, pentraxin 3, BTB/POZ domain-containing protein 11, interleukin 11, NADPH oxidase 4, and proteoglycan 4 by at least five-fold in oral fibroblasts. Bone-conditioned medium obtained from autoclaved bone chips, however, failed to change the expression of the respective genes. Also, when bone-conditioned medium was prepared from fresh bone chips, autoclaving blocked the capacity of bone-conditioned medium to modulate gene expression. These in vitro results suggest that pasteurization and freezing of bone grafts preserve the release of biologically active paracrine signals, but autoclaving does not. Copyright © 2015 International Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. KEYWORDS: allogeneic bone; augmentation; autoclaving; autologous bone; bone bank; bone grafts; bone regeneration; bone supernatant; bone-conditioned medium; freezing; pasteurization

Alpine Common Property Institutions under Change: Conditions for Successful and Unsuccessful Collective Action by Alpine Farmers in the Canton of Grisons, Switzerland

The protection and sustainable management of alpine summer pastures has been stated as a goal in Swiss national law since 1996, and direct payments from the state for summer pasturing have been tied to sustainability criteria since 2000. This reflects the increasing value of the alpine cultural landscape as a public good. However, provision of this public good remains in the hands of local farmers and their local common pool resource (CPR) institutions for managing alpine pastures. These institutions are increasingly struggling to maintain their institutional arrangements, particularly regarding the work needed to maintain the pastures. This paper examines two cases of local CPR institutions for managing alpine pastures in the Swiss Canton of Grisons that manifest different institutional developments in light of changing conditions. The differences in how these institutions reacted to change and the impacts this has had on the provision of the CPR are explained by focusing on relative prices, bargaining power, and ideology as drivers of institutional change that are often neglected within common property research. Key words: summer pasture management, institutional change, bargaining power, ideology

Crowdsourcing language change with smartphone applications

Crowdsourcing linguistic phenomena with smartphone applications is relatively new. In linguistics, apps have predominantly been developed to create pronunciation dictionaries, to train acoustic models, and to archive endangered languages. This paper presents the first account of how apps can be used to collect data suitable for documenting language change: we created an app, Dialäkt Äpp (DÄ), which predicts users’ dialects. For 16 linguistic variables, users select a dialectal variant from a drop-down menu. DÄ then geographically locates the user’s dialect by suggesting a list of communes where dialect variants most similar to their choices are used. Underlying this prediction are 16 maps from the historical Linguistic Atlas of German-speaking Switzerland, which documents the linguistic situation around 1950. Where users disagree with the prediction, they can indicate what they consider to be their dialect’s location. With this information, the 16 variables can be assessed for language change. Thanks to the playfulness of its functionality, DÄ has reached many users; our linguistic analyses are based on data from nearly 60,000 speakers. Results reveal a relative stability for phonetic variables, while lexical and morphological variables seem more prone to change. Crowdsourcing large amounts of dialect data with smartphone apps has the potential to complement existing data collection techniques and to provide evidence that traditional methods cannot, with normal resources, hope to gather. Nonetheless, it is important to emphasize a range of methodological caveats, including sparse knowledge of users’ linguistic backgrounds (users only indicate age, sex) and users’ self-declaration of their dialect. These are discussed and evaluated in detail here. Findings remain intriguing nevertheless: as a means of quality control, we report that traditional dialectological methods have revealed trends similar to those found by the app. This underlines the validity of the crowdsourcing method. We are presently extending DÄ architecture to other languages.

Documenting sound change with smartphone apps

Crowdsourcing linguistic phenomena with smartphone applications is relatively new. Apps have been used to train acoustic models for automatic speech recognition (de Vries et al. 2014) and to archive endangered languages (Iwaidja Inyaman Team 2012). Leemann and Kolly (2013) developed a free app for iOS—Dialäkt Äpp (DÄ) (>78k downloads)—to document language change in Swiss German. Here, we present results of sound change based on DÄ data. DÄ predicts the users’ dialects: for 16 variables, users select their dialectal variant. DÄ then tells users which dialect they speak. Underlying this prediction are maps from the Linguistic Atlas of German-speaking Switzerland (SDS, 1962-2003), which documents the linguistic situation around 1950. If predicted wrongly, users indicate their actual dialect. With this information, the 16 variables can be assessed for language change. Results revealed robustness of phonetic variables; lexical and morphological variables were more prone to change. Phonetic variables like to lift (variants: /lupfə, lʏpfə, lipfə/) revealed SDS agreement scores of nearly 85%, i.e., little sound change. Not all phonetic variables are equally robust: ladle (variants: /xælə, xællə, xæuə, xæɫə, xæɫɫə/) exhibited significant sound change. We will illustrate the results using maps that show details of the sound changes at hand.