Agroecosystem resilience and farmers’ perceptions of climate change impacts on cocoa farms in Alto Beni, Bolivia

Cocoa-based small-scale agriculture is the most important source of income for most farming families in the region of Alto Beni in the sub-humid foothills of the Andes. Cocoa is grown in cultivation systems of varying ecological complexity. The plantations are highly susceptible to climate change impacts. Local cocoa producers mention heat waves, droughts, floods and plant diseases as the main impacts affecting plants and working conditions, and they associate these impacts with global climate change. From a sustainable regional development point of view, cocoa farms need to become more resilient in order to cope with the climate change related effects that are putting cocoa-based livelihoods at risk. This study assesses agroecosystem resilience under three different cocoa cultivation systems (successional agroforestry, simple agroforestry and common practice monocultures). In a first step, farmers’ perceptions of climate change impacts were assessed and eight indicators of agroecological resilience were derived in a transdisciplinary process (focus groups and workshop) based on farmers’ and scientists’ knowledge. These indicators (soil organic matter, depth of Ah horizon, soil bulk density, tree species diversity, crop varieties diversity, ant species diversity, cocoa yields and infestation of cocoa trees with Moniliophthora perniciosa) were then surveyed on 15 cocoa farms and compared for the three different cultivation systems. Parts of the socio-economic aspects of resilience were covered by evaluating the role of cocoa cooperatives and organic certification in transitioning to more resilient cocoa farms (interviews with 15 cocoa farmers combined with five expert interviews). Agroecosystem resilience was higher under the two agroforestry systems than under common practice monoculture, especially under successional agroforestry. Both agroforestry systems achieved higher cocoa yields than common practice monoculture due to agroforestry farmers’ enhanced knowledge regarding cocoa cultivation. Knowledge sharing was promoted by local organizations facilitating organic certification. These organizations were thus found to enhance the social process of farmers’ integration into cooperatives and their reorientation toward organic principles and diversified agroforestry.

Climate change impacts on tree species, forest properties, and ecosystem services

– Swiss forests experience strong impacts under the CH2011 scenarios, partly even for the low greenhouse gas scenario RCP3PD. Negative impacts prevail in low-elevation forests, whereas mostly positive impacts are expected in high-elevation forests. – Major changes in the distribution of the two most important tree species, Norway spruce and European beech, are expected. Growth conditions for spruce improve in a broad range of scenarios at presently cool high-elevation sites with plentiful precipitation, but in the case of strong warming (A1B and A2) spruce and beech are at risk in large parts of the Swiss Plateau. – High elevation forests that are temperature-limited will show little change in species composition but an increase in biomass. In contrast, forests at low elevations in warm-dry inner-Alpine valleys are sensitive to even moderate warming and may no longer sustain current biomass and species. – Timber production potential, carbon storage, and protection from avalanches and rockfall react differently to climate change, with an overall tendency to deteriorate at low elevations, and improve at high elevations. – Climate change will affect forests also indirectly, e.g., by increasing the risk of infestation by spruce bark beetles, which will profit from an extended flight period and will produce more generations per year.

An updated synthesis of the observed and projected impacts of climate change on the chemical, physical and biological processes in the oceans

The 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states with very high certainty that anthropogenic emissions have caused measurable changes in the physical ocean environment. These changes are summarized with special focus on those that are predicted to have the strongest, most direct effects on ocean biological processes; namely, ocean warming and associated phenomena (including stratification and sea level rise) as well as deoxygenation and ocean acidification. The biological effects of these changes are then discussed for microbes (including phytoplankton), plants, animals, warm and cold-water corals, and ecosystems. The IPCC AR5 highlighted several areas related to both the physical and biological processes that required further research. As a rapidly developing field, there have been many pertinent studies published since the cut off dates for the AR5, which have increased our understanding of the processes at work. This study undertook an extensive review of recently published literature to update the findings of the AR5 and provide a synthesized review on the main issues facing future oceans. The level of detail provided in the AR5 and subsequent work provided a basis for constructing projections of the state of ocean ecosystems in 2100 under two the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and 8.5. Finally the review highlights notable additions, clarifications and points of departure from AR5 provided by subsequent studies.

Spatial variability and potential impacts of climate change on flood and debris flow hazard zone mapping and implications for risk management

The main goals of this study were to identifythe alpine torrent catchments that are sensitive to climatic changes and to assess the robustness of the methods for the elaboration of flood and debris flow hazard zone maps to specific effects of climate changes. In this study, a procedure for the identification and localization of torrent catchments in which the climate scenarios will modify the hazard situation was developed. In two case studies, the impacts of a potential increase of precipitation intensities to the delimited hazard zones were studied. The identification and localization of the torrent and river catchments, where unfavourable changes in the hazard situation occur, could eliminate speculative and unnecessary measures against the impacts of climate changes like a general enlargement of hazard zones or a general over dimensioning of protection structures for the whole territory. The results showed a high spatial variability of the sensitivity of catchments to climate changes. In sensitive catchments, the sediment management in alpine torrents will meet future challenges due to a higher rate for sediment removal from retention basins. The case studies showed a remarkable increase of the areas affected by floods and debris flow when considering possible future precipitation intensities in hazard mapping. But, the calculated increase in extent of future hazard zones lay within the uncertainty of the methods used today for the delimitation of the hazard zones. Thus, the consideration of the uncertainties laying in the methods for the elaboration of hazard zone maps in the torrent and river catchments sensitive to climate changes would provide a useful instrument for the consideration of potential future climate conditions. The study demonstrated that weak points in protection structures in future will become more important in risk management activities.

Drought stress and carbon assimilation in a warming climate: Reversible and irreversible impacts

Abstract Global change is characterized by increased {CO2} concentration in the atmosphere, increasing average temperature and more frequent extreme events including drought periods, heat waves and flooding. Especially the impacts of drought and of elevated temperature on carbon assimilation are considered in this review. Effects of extreme events on the subcellular level as well as on the whole plant level may be reversible, partially reversible or irreversible. The photosynthetically active biomass depends on the number and the size of mature leaves and the photosynthetic activity in this biomass during stress and subsequent recovery phases. The total area of active leaves is determined by leaf expansion and senescence, while net photosynthesis per leaf area is primarily influenced by stomatal opening (stomatal conductance), mesophyll conductance, activity of the photosynthetic apparatus (light absorption and electron transport, activity of the Calvin cycle) and {CO2} release by decarboxylation reactions (photorespiration, dark respiration). Water status, stomatal opening and leaf temperature represent a "magic triangle" of three strongly interacting parameters. The response of stomata to altered environmental conditions is important for stomatal limitations. Rubisco protein is quite thermotolerant, but the enzyme becomes at elevated temperature more rapidly inactivated (decarbamylation, reversible effect) and must be reactivated by Rubisco activase (carbamylation of a lysine residue). Rubisco activase is present under two forms (encoded by separate genes or products of alternative splicing of the pre-mRNA from one gene) and is very thermosensitive. Rubisco activase was identified as a key protein for photosynthesis at elevated temperature (non-stomatal limitation). During a moderate heat stress Rubisco activase is reversibly inactivated, but during a more severe stress (higher temperature and/or longer exposure) the protein is irreversibly inactivated, insolubilized and finally degraded. On the level of the leaf, this loss of photosynthetic activity may still be reversible when new Rubisco activase is produced by protein synthesis. Rubisco activase as well as enzymes involved in the detoxification of reactive oxygen species or in osmoregulation are considered as important targets for breeding crop plants which are still productive under drought and/or at elevated leaf temperature in a changing climate.

Global pollinator declines: trends, impacts and drivers

Pollinators are a key component of global biodiversity, providing vital ecosystem services to crops and wild plants. There is clear evidence of recent declines in both wild and domesticated pollinators, and parallel declines in the plants that rely upon them. Here we describe the nature and extent of reported declines, and review the potential drivers of pollinator loss, including habitat loss and fragmentation, agrochemicals, pathogens, alien species, climate change and the interactions between them. Pollinator declines can result in loss of pollination services which have important negative ecological and economic impacts that could significantly affect the maintenance of wild plant diversity, wider ecosystem stability, crop production, food security and human welfare.

Farming Systems and Resilience Building in a Changing Climate On-Farm Comparisons of Organic and Conventional Cocoa Cultivation in Alto Beni, Bolivia

Resilience research has been applied to socioeconomic as well as for agroecological studies in the last 20 years. It provides a conceptual and methodological approach for a better understanding of interrelations between the performance of ecological and social systems. In the research area Alto Beni, Bolivia, the production of cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.), is one of the main sources of income. Farmers in the region have formed producers’ associations to enhance organic cocoa cultivation and obtain fair prices since the 1980s. In cooperation with the long-term system comparisons by the Research Institute of Organic Agriculture (FiBL) in Alto Beni, aspects of the field trial are applied for the use in on-farm research: a comparison of soil fertility, biomass and crop diversity is combined with qualitative interviews and participatory observation methods. Fieldwork is carried out together with Bolivian students through the Swiss KFPE-programme Echanges Universitaires. For the system comparisons, four different land-use types were classified according to their ecological complexity during a preliminary study in 2009: successional agroforestry systems, simple agroforestry systems (both organically managed and certified), traditional systems and conventional monocultures. The study focuses on interrelations between different ways of cocoa cultivation, livelihoods and the related socio-cultural rationales behind them. In particular this second aspect is innovative as it allows to broaden the biophysical perspective to a more comprehensive evaluation with socio-ecological aspects thereby increasing the relevance of the agronomic field studies for development policy and practice. Moreover, such a socio-ecological baseline allows to assess the potential of organic agriculture regarding resilience-building face to socio-environmental stress factors. Among others, the results of the pre-study illustrate local farmers’ perceptions of climate change and the consequences for the different crop-systems: all interviewees mentioned rising temperatures and/or an extended dry season as negative impacts more with regard to their own working conditions than to their crops. This was the case in particular for conventional monocultures and in plots where slash-and-burn cultivation was practised whereas for organic agroforestry systems the advantage of working in the shade was stressed indicating that their relevance rises in the context of climate change.

Climate change: an additional risk factor for agriculture and food security in the South

Climate change is expected to have far-reaching negative effects on agricultural production and food security in developing and transition countries. What do we know about these expected impacts, what are the factors that might affect production, and what are the implications for agricultural extension systems?

Reducing vulnerability to climate change in the Swiss Alps: a study of adaptive planning

The Swiss Alps will experience pronounced effects of climate change due to the combination of their latitudinal positioning, altitude and unique ecosystems, placing socio-economic stresses on alpine communities, many of which rely on seasonal tourism. Studies into tourism adaptation within the Swiss Alps have so far focused on the technical adaptation options of alpine stakeholders, rather than perceptions of adaptation to climate change at the operational and community level. This article investigates attitudes to adaptation in two alpine regions within Switzerland's well-established decentralized political framework, through semi-structured qualitative interviews. Stakeholders focused almost entirely on maintaining the status quo of winter tourism, through technical or marketing measures, with mixed attitudes towards climatic impacts. A matrix based on the relative internal strengths and weaknesses, external opportunities and threats of adaptation measures (a SWOT framework) was used to assess the measures and suggest how stakeholders could capitalize on the new opportunities thrown up by climate change to create a competitive advantage. A comprehensive and collaborative planning approach is vital to enable policy makers and stakeholders to maximize opportunities, minimize the adverse effects of climate change on the local economy, and develop inclusive adaptation measures that benefit the entire region in order to create more sustainable social, economic and environmental structures.

Indigenous knowledge related to climate variability and change: insights from droughts in semi-arid areas of former Makueni District, Kenya

This article describes the indigenous knowledge (IK) that agro-pastoralists in larger Makueni District, Kenya hold and how they use it to monitor, mitigate and adapt to drought. It examines ways of integrating IK into formal monitoring, how to enhance its value and acceptability. Data was collected through target interviews, group discussions and questionnaires covering 127 households in eight villages. Daily rainfall data from 1961–2003 were analysed. Results show that agro-pastoralists hold IK on indicators of rainfall variability; they believe in IK efficacy and they rely on them. Because agro-pastoralists consult additional sources, the authors interpret that IK forms a basic knowledge frame within which agro-pastoralists position and interpret meteorological forecasts. Only a few agro-pastoralists adapt their practices in anticipation of IK-based forecasts partly due to the conditioning of the actors to the high rainfall variability characteristic of the area and partly due to lack of resources. Non-drought factors such as poverty, inadequate resources and lack of preparedness expose agro-pastoralists to drought impacts and limit their adaptive capacity. These factors need to be understood and effectively addressed to increase agro-pastoralists’ decision options and the influence of IK-based forecasts on their decision-making patterns. The limited intergenerational transfer of IK currently threatens its existence in the longer term. One way to ensure its continued existence and use is to integrate IK into the education curriculum and to link IK with formal climate change research through the participation of the local people. However, further studies are necessary to address the reliability and validity of the identified IK indicators of climate variability and change.