Reinfection by untreated partners of people treated for Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae: mathematical modelling study

OBJECTIVES Reinfection after treatment for Chlamydia trachomatis or Neisseria gonorrhoeae reduces the effect of control interventions. We explored the impact of delays in treatment of current partners on the expected probability of reinfection of index cases using a mathematical model. METHODS We used previously reported parameter distributions to calculate the probability that index cases would be reinfected by their untreated partners. We then assumed different delays between index case and partner treatment to calculate the probabilities of reinfection. RESULTS In the absence of partner treatment, the medians of the expected reinfection probabilities are 19.4% (IQR 9.2-31.6%) for C trachomatis and 12.5% (IQR 5.6-22.2%) for N gonorrhoeae. If all current partners receive treatment 3 days after the index case, the expected reinfection probabilities are 4.2% (IQR 2.1-6.9%) for C trachomatis and 5.5% (IQR 2.6-9.5%) for N gonorrhoeae. CONCLUSIONS Quicker partner referral and treatment can substantially reduce reinfection rates for C trachomatis and N gonorrhoeae by untreated partners. The formula we used to calculate reinfection rates can be used to inform the design of randomised controlled trials of novel partner notification technologies like accelerated partner therapy.

Direct and indirect effects of screening for Chlamydia trachomatis on the prevention of pelvic inflammatory disease: a mathematical modeling study

BACKGROUND Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) results from the ascending spread of microorganisms, including Chlamydia trachomatis, to the upper genital tract. Screening could improve outcomes by identifying and treating chlamydial infections before they progress to PID (direct effect) or by reducing chlamydia transmission (indirect effect). METHODS We developed a compartmental model that represents a hypothetical heterosexual population and explicitly incorporates progression from chlamydia to clinical PID. Chlamydia screening was introduced, with coverage increasing each year for 10 years. We estimated the separate contributions of the direct and indirect effects of screening on PID cases prevented per 100,000 women. We explored the influence of varying the time point at which clinical PID could occur and of increasing the risk of PID after repeated chlamydial infections. RESULTS The probability of PID at baseline was 3.1% by age 25 years. After 5 years, the intervention scenario had prevented 187 PID cases per 100,000 women and after 10 years 956 PID cases per 100,000 women. At the start of screening, most PID cases were prevented by the direct effect. The indirect effect produced a small net increase in PID cases, which was outweighed by the effect of reduced chlamydia transmission after 2.2 years. The later that progression to PID occurs, the greater the contribution of the direct effect. Increasing the risk of PID with repeated chlamydial infection increases the number of PID cases prevented by screening. CONCLUSIONS This study shows the separate roles of direct and indirect PID prevention and potential harms, which cannot be demonstrated in observational studies.

Sample size considerations using mathematical models: an example with Chlamydia trachomatis infection and its sequelae pelvic inflammatory disease.

BACKGROUND The success of an intervention to prevent the complications of an infection is influenced by the natural history of the infection. Assumptions about the temporal relationship between infection and the development of sequelae can affect the predicted effect size of an intervention and the sample size calculation. This study investigates how a mathematical model can be used to inform sample size calculations for a randomised controlled trial (RCT) using the example of Chlamydia trachomatis infection and pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). METHODS We used a compartmental model to imitate the structure of a published RCT. We considered three different processes for the timing of PID development, in relation to the initial C. trachomatis infection: immediate, constant throughout, or at the end of the infectious period. For each process we assumed that, of all women infected, the same fraction would develop PID in the absence of an intervention. We examined two sets of assumptions used to calculate the sample size in a published RCT that investigated the effect of chlamydia screening on PID incidence. We also investigated the influence of the natural history parameters of chlamydia on the required sample size. RESULTS The assumed event rates and effect sizes used for the sample size calculation implicitly determined the temporal relationship between chlamydia infection and PID in the model. Even small changes in the assumed PID incidence and relative risk (RR) led to considerable differences in the hypothesised mechanism of PID development. The RR and the sample size needed per group also depend on the natural history parameters of chlamydia. CONCLUSIONS Mathematical modelling helps to understand the temporal relationship between an infection and its sequelae and can show how uncertainties about natural history parameters affect sample size calculations when planning a RCT.

Home-based versus clinic-based specimen collection in the management of Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae infections

BACKGROUND Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) are the most frequent causes of bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Management strategies that reduce losses in the clinical pathway from infection to cure might improve STI control and reduce complications resulting from lack of, or inadequate, treatment. OBJECTIVES To assess the effectiveness and safety of home-based specimen collection as part of the management strategy for Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae infections compared with clinic-based specimen collection in sexually-active people. SEARCH METHODS We searched the Cochrane Sexually Transmitted Infections Group Specialized Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE and LILACS on 27 May 2015, together with the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry (ICTRP) and ClinicalTrials.gov. We also handsearched conference proceedings, contacted trial authors and reviewed the reference lists of retrieved studies. SELECTION CRITERIA Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of home-based compared with clinic-based specimen collection in the management of C. trachomatis and N. gonorrhoeae infections. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Three review authors independently assessed trials for inclusion, extracted data and assessed risk of bias. We contacted study authors for additional information. We resolved any disagreements through consensus. We used standard methodological procedures recommended by Cochrane. The primary outcome was index case management, defined as the number of participants tested, diagnosed and treated, if test positive. MAIN RESULTS Ten trials involving 10,479 participants were included. There was inconclusive evidence of an effect on the proportion of participants with index case management (defined as individuals tested, diagnosed and treated for CT or NG, or both) in the group with home-based (45/778, 5.8%) compared with clinic-based (51/788, 6.5%) specimen collection (risk ratio (RR) 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.60 to 1.29; 3 trials, I² = 0%, 1566 participants, moderate quality). Harms of home-based specimen collection were not evaluated in any trial. All 10 trials compared the proportions of individuals tested. The results for the proportion of participants completing testing had high heterogeneity (I² = 100%) and were not pooled. We could not combine data from individual studies looking at the number of participants tested because the proportions varied widely across the studies, ranging from 30% to 96% in home group and 6% to 97% in clinic group (low-quality evidence). The number of participants with positive test was lower in the home-based specimen collection group (240/2074, 11.6%) compared with the clinic-based group (179/967, 18.5%) (RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.86; 9 trials, I² = 0%, 3041 participants, moderate quality). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS Home-based specimen collection could result in similar levels of index case management for CT or NG infection when compared with clinic-based specimen collection. Increases in the proportion of individuals tested as a result of home-based, compared with clinic-based, specimen collection are offset by a lower proportion of positive results. The harms of home-based specimen collection compared with clinic-based specimen collection have not been evaluated. Future RCTs to assess the effectiveness of home-based specimen collection should be designed to measure biological outcomes of STI case management, such as proportion of participants with negative tests for the relevant STI at follow-up.

The role of reinfection and partner notification in the efficacy of Chlamydia screening programs

Repeated Chlamydia trachomatis infections after treatment are common. One reason is reinfection from untreated partners in ongoing sexual partnerships. Mathematical models that are used to predict the impact of screening on reducing chlamydia prevalence often do not incorporate reinfection and might overestimate the expected impact. We describe a pair compartmental model that explicitly incorporates sexual partnership duration and reinfection. The pair model predicts a weaker impact of screening when compared directly with a model that does not accommodate partnerships. Effective management of sex partners to prevent reinfection might need to be strengthened in chlamydia control programs.

Predicting the population impact of chlamydia screening programmes: comparative mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND: Published individual-based, dynamic sexual network modelling studies reach different conclusions about the population impact of screening for Chlamydia trachomatis. The objective of this study was to conduct a direct comparison of the effect of organised chlamydia screening in different models. METHODS: Three models simulating population-level sexual behaviour, chlamydia transmission, screening and partner notification were used. Parameters describing a hypothetical annual opportunistic screening program in 16-24 year olds were standardised, whereas other parameters from the three original studies were retained. Model predictions of the change in chlamydia prevalence were compared under a range of scenarios. RESULTS: Initial overall chlamydia prevalence rates were similar in women but not men and there were age and sex-specific differences between models. The number of screening tests carried out was comparable in all models but there were large differences in the predicted impact of screening. After 10 years of screening, the predicted reduction in chlamydia prevalence in women aged 16-44 years ranged from 4% to 85%. Screening men and women had a greater impact than screening women alone in all models. There were marked differences between models in assumptions about treatment seeking and sexual behaviour before the start of the screening intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Future models of chlamydia transmission should be fitted to both incidence and prevalence data. This meta-modelling study provides essential information for explaining differences between published studies and increasing the utility of individual-based chlamydia transmission models for policy making.

Chlamydia Control: A Comparative Review from the USA and UK

Chlamydia trachomatis infection (chlamydia) is the most common notifiable bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) worldwide. In the United States of America (USA) in 2009, 1,244,180 cases of chlamydia were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the largest number of cases ever reported to CDC for any notifiable disease [1]. It has been estimated, from population prevalence surveys, that approximately 2 % of sexually active adults aged 18–44 years old in the UK [2] and 2.2 % (CI, 1.8–2.8 %) of the US population aged 14–39 years [3] are infected with chlamydia. This level of prevalence in the USA translates into an estimated 2,291,000 (95 % confidence interval, CI, 1,857,000–2,838,000) chlamydia infections each year [3]. Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that there are about 92 million new cases of chlamydia each year [4].

Genital chlamydia prevalence in Europe and in non-European high income countries: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Accurate information about the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis is needed to assess national prevention and control measures. Methods: We systematically reviewed population-based cross-sectional studies that estimated chlamydia prevalence in European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) Member States and non-European high income countries from January 1990 to August 2012. We examined results in forest plots, explored heterogeneity using the I2 statistic, and conducted random effects meta-analysis if appropriate. Metaregression was used to examine the relationship between study characteristics and chlamydia prevalence estimates. Results: We included 25 population-based studies from 11 EU/EEA countries and 14 studies from five other high income countries. Four EU/EEA Member States reported on nationally representative surveys of sexually experienced adults aged 18-26 years (response rates 52-71%). In women, chlamydia point prevalence estimates ranged from 3.0-5.3%; the pooled average of these estimates was 3.6% (95% CI 2.4, 4.8, I2 0%). In men, estimates ranged from 2.4-7.3% (pooled average 3.5%; 95% CI 1.9, 5.2, I2 27%). Estimates in EU/EEA Member States were statistically consistent with those in other high income countries (I2 0% for women, 6% for men). There was statistical evidence of an association between survey response rate and estimated chlamydia prevalence; estimates were higher in surveys with lower response rates, (p=0.003 in women, 0.018 in men). Conclusions: Population-based surveys that estimate chlamydia prevalence are at risk of participation bias owing to low response rates. Estimates obtained in nationally representative samples of the general population of EU/EEA Member States are similar to estimates from other high income countries.

Interventions to increase rescreening for repeat chlamydial infection

Repeat infection with Chlamydia trachomatis following treatment is common and increases the risk of sequelae. Despite clinical guidelines recommending rescreening within 3 months of treatment, rescreening rates remain low. We undertook a systematic review to identify studies that compared rates of rescreening for repeat chlamydial infection between patients receiving and not receiving an intervention.

Quantifying leukocytes in first catch urine provides new insights into our understanding of symptomatic and asymptomatic urethritis

We quantitatively investigated inflammatory cells in the male urethra. Leukocytes in the first catch urine (FCU) from 87 men with and without urethritis were quantitated using haemocytometer counts and stained with an anti-CD45 pan-leukocyte antibody. An increased number of leukocytes in FCU specimens was associated with urethritis (P > 0.002), the presence of discharge and/or dysuria (P < 0.001), and detection of Chlamydia trachomatis (P < 0.001) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (P < 0.001). In men with urethritis, higher leukocyte counts were also observed in the above groups (P = 0.07, 0.03 and P < 0.0001, respectively). As leukocyte number increased, the likelihood of detecting either pathogen increased. This study suggests that symptoms and signs are a surrogate marker for the degree of inflammation present, and that as urethral inflammation increases, the likelihood of detecting a sexually transmitted pathogen also increases. This would explain why men with asymptomatic urethritis are less likely to have a sexually transmitted infection detected than those with discharge and/or dysuria.

Epidemiological, social, diagnostic and economic evaluation of population screening for genital chlamydial infection

OBJECTIVES: To investigate epidemiological, social, diagnostic and economic aspects of chlamydia screening in non-genitourinary medicine settings. METHODS: Linked studies around a cross-sectional population-based survey of adult men and women invited to collect urine and (for women) vulvovaginal swab specimens at home and mail these to a laboratory for testing for Chlamydia trachomatis. Specimens were used in laboratory evaluations of an amplified enzyme immunoassay (PCE EIA) and two nucleic acid amplification tests [Cobas polymerase chain reaction (PCR), Becton Dickinson strand displacement amplification (SDA)]. Chlamydia-positive cases and two negative controls completed a risk factor questionnaire. Chlamydia-positive cases were invited into a randomised controlled trial of partner notification strategies. Samples of individuals testing negative completed psychological questionnaires before and after screening. In-depth interviews were conducted at all stages of screening. Chlamydia transmission and cost-effectiveness of screening were investigated in a transmission dynamic model. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: General population in the Bristol and Birmingham areas of England. In total, 19,773 women and men aged 16-39 years were randomly selected from 27 general practice lists. RESULTS: Screening invitations reached 73% (14,382/19,773). Uptake (4731 participants), weighted for sampling, was 39.5% (95% CI 37.7, 40.8%) in women and 29.5% (95% CI 28.0, 31.0%) in men aged 16-39 years. Chlamydia prevalence (219 positive results) in 16-24 year olds was 6.2% (95% CI 4.9, 7.8%) in women and 5.3% (95% CI 4.4, 6.3%) in men. The case-control study did not identify any additional factors that would help target screening. Screening did not adversely affect anxiety, depression or self-esteem. Participants welcomed the convenience and privacy of home-sampling. The relative sensitivity of PCR on male urine specimens was 100% (95% CI 89.1, 100%). The combined relative sensitivities of PCR and SDA using female urine and vulvovaginal swabs were 91.8% (86.1, 95.7, 134/146) and 97.3% (93.1, 99.2%, 142/146). A total of 140 people (74% of eligible) participated in the randomised trial. Compared with referral to a genitourinary medicine clinic, partner notification by practice nurses resulted in 12.4% (95% CI -3.7, 28.6%) more patients with at least one partner treated and 22.0% (95% CI 6.1, 37.8%) more patients with all partners treated. The health service and patients costs (2005 prices) of home-based postal chlamydia screening were 21.47 pounds (95% CI 19.91 pounds, 25.99) per screening invitation and 28.56 pounds (95% CI 22.10 pounds, 30.43) per accepted offer. Preliminary modelling found an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (2003 prices) comparing screening men and women annually to no screening in the base case of 27,000 pounds/major outcome averted at 8 years. If estimated screening uptake and pelvic inflammatory disease incidence were increased, the cost-effectiveness ratio fell to 3700 pounds/major outcome averted. CONCLUSIONS: Proactive screening for chlamydia in women and men using home-collected specimens was feasible and acceptable. Chlamydia prevalence rates in men and women in the general population are similar. Nucleic acid amplification tests can be used on first-catch urine specimens and vulvovaginal swabs. The administrative costs of proactive screening were similar to those for opportunistic screening. Using empirical estimates of screening uptake and incidence of complications, screening was not cost-effective.

Surveillance systems for sexually transmitted diseases in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: In Switzerland (population 7.4 million), 3 different systems contribute to surveillance for sexually transmitted infections. GOAL: The goal of this study was to compare time trends from surveillance systems for chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis. STUDY DESIGN: We studied surveillance data (1997-2003) from laboratory reports in women and men, men attending dermatology clinics, and women attending gynecologists. RESULTS: Laboratory reports of episodes of Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae increased by 31% (from 2573 to 3449 cases) and 104% (from 259 to 528 cases), respectively. Over the same period, chlamydia reports from men attending dermatology clinics and women attending gynecologists did not change and dermatology clinic-based reports of gonorrhea in men increased only slightly. Syphilis reports from dermatology clinics increased by 127% (from 22 to 50 cases). CONCLUSIONS: Increases in laboratory reports of chlamydia and gonorrhea were not consistently detected in sentinel populations. Numbers of cases reported to all 3 systems were low. The performance of surveillance systems for sexually transmitted infections should be evaluated regularly.

Real-time quantitative PCR to determine chlamydial load in men and women in a community setting

We used a PCR method to quantify the loads of Chlamydia trachomatis organisms in self-collected urine and vulvovaginal swab (VVS) samples from 93 women and 30 men participating in the Chlamydia Screening Studies Project, a community-based study of individuals not seeking health care. For women, self-collected VVS had a higher mean chlamydial load (10,405 organisms/ml; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 5,167 to 21,163 organisms/ml) than did first-void urines (FVU) (503 organisms/ml; 95% CI, 250 to 1,022 organisms/ml; P < 0.001). Chlamydial loads in female and male self-collected FVU specimens were similar (P = 0.634). The mean chlamydial load in FVU specimens decreased with increasing age in females and males. There was no strong statistical evidence of differences in chlamydial load in repeat male and female FVU specimens taken when patients attended for treatment a median of 23.5 (range, 14 to 62) and 28 (range, 13 to 132) days later, respectively, or in VVS taken a median of 35 (range, 14 to 217) days later. In this study, chlamydial load values for infected persons in the community who were not seeking treatment were lower than those published in other studies involving symptomatic patients attending clinical settings. This might have implications for estimates of the infectiousness of chlamydia. The results of this study provide a scientific rationale for preferring VVS to FVU specimens from women.

High prevalence of anorectal chlamydial infection in HIV-infected men who have sex with men in Switzerland

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected men who have sex with men (MSM) were enrolled in an anorectal Chlamydia trachomatis screening study. Anorectal Chlamydia DNA was detected in 16 (10.9%) of 147 men, mainly among asymptomatic patients and patients having >20 sexual partners. These results support routine anorectal Chlamydia screening in HIV-infected MSM who report unprotected anal intercourse.

Case and partnership reproduction numbers for a curable sexually transmitted infection

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are, by definition, transmitted between sexual partners. For curable STIs an infected index case can potentially re-infect the same partner multiple times. Thus, R0, the average number of secondary infections one typical infected individual will produce during his or her infectious period is not necessarily the same as the average number of secondary cases (infected persons). Here we introduce the new concept of the case reproduction number (Rc). In addition, we define the partnership reproduction number (Rp) as the average number of secondary partnerships consisting of two infected individuals one typical infected individual will produce over his or her infectious lifetime. Rp takes into account clearance and re-infection within partnerships, which results in a prolongation of the duration of the infectious period. The two new reproduction numbers were derived for a deterministic pair model with serial monogamous partnerships using infection parameters for Chlamydia trachomatis, an example of a curable STI. We showed that re-infection within partnerships means that curable STIs can be sustained endemically even when the average number of secondary cases a person produces during his or her infectious period is below one.