Global Change and the World's Mountain. Where are we coming from, and where are we going to?

The history of mountain research is most fascinating. Three names for 3 centuries may give an idea of the growing knowledge about the world's mountains: Horace Bénédict de Saussure, who climbed and studied the Mont Blanc in 1787; Alexander von Humboldt, ever investigating the environment during his attempt to ascend the Chimborazo in 1802; and Carl Troll, who founded the International Geographical Union's Commission on High-altitude Geoecology in 1968. Awareness of the growing impact of human activities on the environment led to scientific and political initiatives at the global level, beginning in the 1970s. The Perth conference in 2010 has offered an opportunity to both look back on these developments and explore the future of the world's mountains in a time of rapidly growing “global change” problems and processes.

Mid-Holocene Climate and Culture Change in the South Central Ande

This chapter reviews the history of study and the current status of Mid-Holocene climatic and cultural change in the South Central Andes, which host a wide range of different habitats from Pacific coastal areas up to extremely harsh cold and dry environments of the high mountain plateau, the altiplano or the puna. Paleoenvironmental information reveals high amplitude and rapid changes in effective moisture during the Holocene period and, consequently, dramatically changing environmental conditions. Therefore, this area is suitable to study the response of hunting and gathering societies to environmental changes, because the smallest variations in the climatic conditions have large impacts on resources and the living space of humans. This chapter analyzes environmental and paleoclimatic information from lake sediments, ice cores, pollen profiles, and geomorphic processes and relates these with the cultural and geographic settlement patterns of human occupation in the different habitats in the area of southern Peru, southwest Bolivia, northwest Argentina, and north Chile and puts in perspective of the early and late Holocene to present a representative range of environmental and cultural changes. It has been found that the largest changes took place around 9000 cal yr BP when the humid early Holocene conditions were replaced by extremely arid but highly variable climatic conditions. These resulted in a marked decrease of human occupation, “ecological refuges,” increased mobility, and an orientation toward habitats with relatively stable resources (such as the coast, the puna seca, and “ecological refuges”).

Surface uplift and climate change - the geomorphic evolution of the western escarpment of the Andes of northern Chile between the Miocene and present

The Western Escarpment of the Andes at 18.30°S (Arica area, northern Chile) is a classical example for a transient state in landscape evolution. This part of the Andes is characterized by the presence of >10,000 km2 plains that formed between the Miocene and the present, and >1500 m deeply incised valleys. Although processes in these valleys scale the rates of landscape evolution, determinations of ages of incision, and more importantly, interpretations of possible controls on valley formation have been controversial. This paper uses morphometric data and observations, stratigraphic information, and estimates of sediment yields for the time interval between ca. 7.5 Ma and present to illustrate that the formation of these valleys was driven by two probably unrelated components. The first component is a phase of base-level lowering with magnitudes of∼300–500 m in the Coastal Cordillera. This period of base-level change in the Arica area, that started at ca. 7.5 Ma according to stratigraphic data, caused the trunk streams to dissect headward into the plains. The headward erosion interpretation is based on the presence of well-defined knickzones in stream profiles and the decrease in valley widths from the coast toward these knickzones. The second component is a change in paleoclimate. This interpretation is based on (1) the increase in the size of the largest alluvial boulders (from dm to m scale) with distal sources during the last 7.5 m.y., and (2) the calculated increase in minimum fluvial incision rates of ∼0.2 mm/yr between ca. 7.5 Ma and 3 Ma to ∼0.3 mm/yr subsequently. These trends suggest an increase in effective water discharge for systems sourced in the Western Cordillera (distal source). During the same time, however, valleys with headwaters in the coastal region (local source) lack any evidence of fluvial incision. This implies that the Coastal Cordillera became hyperarid sometime after 7.5 Ma. Furthermore, between 7.5 Ma and present, the sediment yields have been consistently higher in the catchments with distal sources (∼15 m/m.y.) than in the headwaters of rivers with local sources (<7 m/m.y.). The positive correlation between sediment yields and the altitude of the headwaters (distal versus local sources) seems to reflect the effect of orographic precipitation on surface erosion. It appears that base-level change in the coastal region, in combination with an increase in the orographic effect of precipitation, has controlled the topographic evolution of the northern Chilean Andes.

Can outcome prediction data change patient outcomes and organizational outcomes?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Intensive care medicine consumes a high share of healthcare costs, and there is growing pressure to use the scarce resources efficiently. Accordingly, organizational issues and quality management have become an important focus of interest in recent years. Here, we will review current concepts of how outcome data can be used to identify areas requiring action. RECENT FINDINGS: Using recently established models of outcome assessment, wide variability between individual ICUs is found, both with respect to outcome and resource use. Such variability implies that there are large differences in patient care processes not only within the ICU but also in pre-ICU and post-ICU care. Indeed, measures to improve the patient process in the ICU (including care of the critically ill, patient safety, and management of the ICU) have been presented in a number of recently published papers. SUMMARY: Outcome assessment models provide an important framework for benchmarking. They may help the individual ICU to spot appropriate fields of action, plan and initiate quality improvement projects, and monitor the consequences of such activity.

Change-Enabled Software Systems

Few real software systems are built completely from scratch nowadays. Instead, systems are built iteratively and incrementally, while integrating and interacting with components from many other systems. Adaptation, reconfiguration and evolution are normal, ongoing processes throughout the lifecycle of a software system. Nevertheless the platforms, tools and environments we use to develop software are still largely based on an outmoded model that presupposes that software systems are closed and will not significantly evolve after deployment. We claim that in order to enable effective and graceful evolution of modern software systems, we must make these systems more amenable to change by (i) providing explicit, first-class models of software artifacts, change, and history at the level of the platform, (ii) continuously analysing static and dynamic evolution to track emergent properties, and (iii) closing the gap between the domain model and the developers' view of the evolving system. We outline our vision of dynamic, evolving software systems and identify the research challenges to realizing this vision.

Global change revealed by palaeolimnological records from remote lakes: a review

Over recent decades, palaeolimnological records from remote sites have provided convincing evidence for the onset and development of several facets of global environmental change. Remote lakes, defined here as those occurring in high latitude or high altitude regions, have the advantage of not being overprinted by local anthropogenic processes. As such, many of these sites record broad-scale environmental changes, frequently driven by regime shifts in the Earth system. Here, we review a selection of studies from North America and Europe and discuss their broader implications. The history of investigation has evolved synchronously with the scope and awareness of environmental problems. An initial focus on acid deposition switched to metal and other types of pollutants, then climate change and eventually to atmospheric deposition-fertilising effects. However, none of these topics is independent of the other, and all of them affect ecosystem function and biodiversity in profound ways. Currently, remote lake palaeolimnology is developing unique datasets for each region investigated that benchmark current trends with respect to past, purely natural variability in lake systems. Fostering conceptual and methodological bridges with other environmental disciplines will upturn contribution of remote lake palaeolimnology in solving existing and emerging questions in global change science and planetary stewardship.

Evaluating watershed service availability under future management and climate change scenarios in the Pangani Basin

Watershed services are the benefits people obtain from the flow of water through a watershed. While demand for such services is increasing in most parts of the world, supply is getting more insecure due to human impacts on ecosystems such as climate or land use change. Population and water management authorities therefore require information on the potential availability of watershed services in the future and the trade-offs involved. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model watershed service availability for future management and climate change scenarios in the East African Pangani Basin. In order to quantify actual “benefits”, SWAT2005 was slightly modified, calibrated and configured at the required spatial and temporal resolution so that simulated water resources and processes could be characterized based on their valuation by stakeholders and their accessibility. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate three management and three climate scenarios. The results show that by the year 2025, not primarily the physical availability of water, but access to water resources and efficiency of use represent the greatest challenges. Water to cover basic human needs is available at least 95% of time but must be made accessible to the population through investments in distribution infrastructure. Concerning the trade-off between agricultural use and hydropower production, there is virtually no potential for an increase in hydropower even if it is given priority. Agriculture will necessarily expand spatially as a result of population growth, and can even benefit from higher irrigation water availability per area unit, given improved irrigation efficiency and enforced regulation to ensure equitable distribution of available water. The decline in services from natural terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. charcoal, food), due to the expansion of agriculture, increases the vulnerability of residents who depend on such services mostly in times of drought. The expected impacts of climate change may contribute to an increase or decrease in watershed service availability, but are only marginal and much lower than management impacts up to the year 2025.

Seasonality and magnitude of floods in Switzerland under future climate change

The flood seasonality of catchments in Switzerland is likely to change under climate change because of anticipated alterations of precipitation as well as snow accumulation and melt. Information on this change is crucial for flood protection policies, for example, or regional flood frequency analysis. We analysed projected changes in mean annual and maximum floods of a 22-year period for 189 catchments in Switzerland and two scenario periods in the 21st century based on an ensemble of climate scenarios. The flood seasonality was analysed with directional statistics that allow assessing both changes in the mean date a flood occurs as well as changes in the strength of the seasonality. We found that the simulated change in flood seasonality is a function of the change in flow regime type. If snow accumulation and melt is important in a catchment during the control period, then the anticipated change in flood seasonality is most pronounced. Decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios additionally affects the flood seasonality (mean date of flood occurrence) and leads to a decreasing strength of seasonality, that is a higher temporal variability in most cases. The magnitudes of mean annual floods and more clearly of maximum floods (in a 22-year period) are expected to increase in the future because of changes in flood-generating processes and scaled extreme precipitation. Southern alpine catchments show a different signal, though: the simulated mean annual floods decrease in the far future, that is at the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The assessment of visual short-term memory in considering the underlying processes and their relation to psychometric intelligence

By means of fixed-links modeling the present study assessed processes involved in visual short-term memory functioning and investigates how these processes are related to intelligence. Using a color change detection task, short-term memory demands increased across three experimental conditions as a function of number of presented stimuli. We measured amount of information retained in visual short-term memory by hit rate as well as speed of visual short-term memory scanning by reaction time. For both measures, fixed-links modeling revealed a constant process reflecting processes irrespective of task manipulation as well as two increasing processes reflecting the increasing short-term memory demands. For visual short-term memory scanning, a negative association between intelligence and the constant process was found but no relationship between intelligence and the increasing processes. Thus, basic processing speed, rather than speed influenced by visual short-term memory demands, differentiates between high- and low-intelligent individuals. Intelligence was positively related to the experimental processes of shortterm memory retention but not to the constant process. In sum, significant associations with intelligence were only obtained when the specific processes of short-term memory were decomposed emphasizing the importance of a thorough assessment of cognitive processes when investigating their relation to intelligence.

Inter- and intraindividual associations between volitional processes and daily smoking during a quit attempt

Background: The Health Action Process Approach (HAPA) assumes that volitional processes are important for effective behavioral change. This study examined the associations of volitional predictors and daily smoking in quitters at the inter- and intraindividual level. Method: Overall, 105 smokers completed daily electronic questionnaires 10 days before and 21 days after a self-set quit date, assessing intentions, self-efficacy, planning, action control and numbers of cigarettes smoked. Findings: Multilevel analyses showed that mean levels of volitional predictors across the 32 days were negatively associated with numbers of cigarettes smoked. Moreover, on days with higher intentions, self-efficacy, planning and action control than usual, less cigarettes were smoked. These effects were stronger after the quit date than before the quit date. Intentions and action control emerged as most powerful predictors at the intraindividual level. Discussion: Findings emphasize the importance of volitional processes at the intraindividual level in the context of quitting smoking.

Predicting daily smoking around a quit date : Volitional processes at the inter- and intraindividual level

Background: The health action process approach (hapa) is a well-established model in predicting health behavior and assumes that volitional processes are important for effective behavioral change. however, only few studies have so far tested associations on the intraindividual level. thus, this study examined the inter- and intraindividual associations between volitional predictors and daily smoking around a quit attempt. method: overall, 105 smokers completed daily electronic questionnaires 10 days before and 21 days after a self-set quit date, including measures of intentions, self-efficacy, planning, action control and numbers of cigarettes smoked. multilevel analysis was applied. findings: at the interindividual level, higher mean levels of volitional predictors across the 32 days were associated with less numbers of cigarettes smoked. negative associations emerged also at the intraindividual level, indicating that on days with higher intentions, self-efficacy, planning and action control than usual, less cigarettes were smoked. moreover, these effects were stronger after the quit date than before the quit date. intentions and action control emerged as most powerful predictors at the intraindividual level. discussion: findings confirm assumptions of the hapa and emphasize the importance of volitional processes at the inter- and intraindividual level in the context of quitting smoking.

Divergent evolutionary processes associated with colonization of offshore islands

Oceanic islands have been a test ground for evolutionary theory, but here, we focus on the possibilities for evolutionary study created by offshore islands. These can be colonized through various means and by a wide range of species, including those with low dispersal capabilities. We use morphology, modern and ancient sequences of cytochrome b (cytb) and microsatellite genotypes to examine colonization history and evolutionary change associated with occupation of the Orkney archipelago by the common vole (Microtus arvalis), a species found in continental Europe but not in Britain. Among possible colonization scenarios, our results are most consistent with human introduction at least 5100 bp (confirmed by radiocarbon dating). We used approximate Bayesian computation of population history to infer the coast of Belgium as the possible source and estimated the evolutionary timescale using a Bayesian coalescent approach. We showed substantial morphological divergence of the island populations, including a size increase presumably driven by selection and reduced microsatellite variation likely reflecting founder events and genetic drift. More surprisingly, our results suggest that a recent and widespread cytb replacement event in the continental source area purged cytb variation there, whereas the ancestral diversity is largely retained in the colonized islands as a genetic ‘ark’. The replacement event in the continental M. arvalis was probably triggered by anthropogenic causes (land-use change). Our studies illustrate that small offshore islands can act as field laboratories for studying various evolutionary processes over relatively short timescales, informing about the mainland source area as well as the island.

An examination of the metabolic processes underpinning critical swimming in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) using in vivo 31P-NMR spectroscopy.

Traditionally, critical swimming speed has been defined as the speed when a fish can no longer propel itself forward, and is exhausted. To gain a better understanding of the metabolic processes at work during a U(crit) swim test, and that lead to fatigue, we developed a method using in vivo (31)P-NMR spectroscopy in combination with a Brett-type swim tunnel. Our data showed that a metabolic transition point is reached when the fish change from using steady state aerobic metabolism to non-steady state anaerobic metabolism, as indicated by a significant increase in inorganic phosphate levels from 0.3+/-0.3 to 9.5+/-3.4 mol g(-1), and a drop in intracellular pH from 7.48+/-0.03 to 6.81+/-0.05 in muscle. This coincides with the point when the fish change gait from subcarangiform swimming to kick-and-glide bursts. As the number of kicks increased, so too did the Pi concentration, and the pH(i) dropped. Both changes were maximal at U(crit). A significant drop in Gibbs free energy change of ATP hydrolysis from -55.6+/-1.4 to -49.8+/-0.7 kJ mol(-1) is argued to have been involved in fatigue. This confirms earlier findings that the traditional definition of U(crit), unlike other critical points that are typically marked by a transition from aerobic to anaerobic metabolism, is the point of complete exhaustion of both aerobic and anaerobic resources.

Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework1. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4–0.5 °C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8–1.0 °C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22–27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.