Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate: a global sensitivity analysis

We estimate the effects of climatic changes, as predicted by six climate models, on lake surface temperatures on a global scale, using the lake surface equilibrium temperature as a proxy. We evaluate interactions between different forcing variables, the sensitivity of lake surface temperatures to these variables, as well as differences between climate zones. Lake surface equilibrium temperatures are predicted to increase by 70 to 85 % of the increase in air temperatures. On average, air temperature is the main driver for changes in lake surface temperatures, and its effect is reduced by ~10 % by changes in other meteorological variables. However, the contribution of these other variables to the variance is ~40 % of that of air temperature, and their effects can be important at specific locations. The warming increases the importance of longwave radiation and evaporation for the lake surface heat balance compared to shortwave radiation and convective heat fluxes. We discuss the consequences of our findings for the design and evaluation of different types of studies on climate change effects on lakes.

Analytical Models of Exoplanetary Atmospheres. II. Radiative Transfer via the Two-Stream Approximation

We present a comprehensive analytical study of radiative transfer using the method of moments and include the effects of non-isotropic scattering in the coherent limit. Within this unified formalism, we derive the governing equations and solutions describing two-stream radiative transfer (which approximates the passage of radiation as a pair of outgoing and incoming fluxes), flux-limited diffusion (which describes radiative transfer in the deep interior) and solutions for the temperature-pressure profiles. Generally, the problem is mathematically under-determined unless a set of closures (Eddington coefficients) is specified. We demonstrate that the hemispheric (or hemi-isotropic) closure naturally derives from the radiative transfer equation if energy conservation is obeyed, while the Eddington closure produces spurious enhancements of both reflected light and thermal emission. We concoct recipes for implementing two-stream radiative transfer in stand-alone numerical calculations and general circulation models. We use our two-stream solutions to construct toy models of the runaway greenhouse effect. We present a new solution for temperature-pressure profiles with a non-constant optical opacity and elucidate the effects of non-isotropic scattering in the optical and infrared. We derive generalized expressions for the spherical and Bond albedos and the photon deposition depth. We demonstrate that the value of the optical depth corresponding to the photosphere is not always 2/3 (Milne's solution) and depends on a combination of stellar irradiation, internal heat and the properties of scattering both in optical and infrared. Finally, we derive generalized expressions for the total, net, outgoing and incoming fluxes in the convective regime.

A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability

A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993–2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models.

Revisiting the Nd-142 deficits in the 1.48 Ga Khariar alkaline rocks, India

The 146Sm–142Nd system plays a central role in tracing the silicate differentiation of the Earth prior to 4.1 Ga. After this time, given its initial abundance, the 146Sm can be considered to be extinct. Upadhyay et al. (2009) reported unexpected negative 142Nd anomalies in 1.48 Ga rocks of the Khariar nepheline syenite complex (India) and inferred that an early enriched, low-Sm/Nd reservoir must have contributed to the mantle source rocks of the Khariar complex. As 146Sm had been effectively extinct for about 2.6 billion years before the crystallisation of the Khariar samples, this Nd signature should have remained isolated from the convective mantle for at least that long. It was thus suggested that the source rock of Khariar samples had been sequestered in the lithospheric root of the Indian craton. Using a different chemical separation method, and a different Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry (TIMS) analysis protocol, the present study attempted to replicate these negative 142Nd anomalies, but none were found. To determine which data set is correct, we investigated three possible sources of bias between them: imperfect cancellation of Faraday collector efficiencies during multidynamic TIMS analysis, rapid sample fractionation between the sequential measurement of 146Nd/144Nd and 142Nd/144Nd, and non-exponential law behaviour resulting from so-called “domain mixing.” Incomplete cancellation of collector efficiencies was found unlikely to cause resolvable biases at the estimated level of variation among collector efficiencies. Even in the case of highly variable efficiency and resolvable biases, there is no reason to suspect that they would reproducibly affect only four rocks out of 10 analysed by Upadhyay et al. (2009). Although domain mixing may explain apparent “reverse” fractionation trends observed in some TIMS analyses, it cannot be the cause of the apparent negative anomalies in the study of Upadhyay et al. (2009). It was determined that rapid mass fractionation during the course of a multidynamic TIMS analysis can bias all measured Nd ratios. After applying an approximate correction for this effect, only one rock from Upadhyay et al. (2009) retained an apparent negative 142Nd anomaly. This, in conjunction with our new, anomaly-free data set measured at fractionation rates too low to cause bias, leads to the conclusion that the anomalies reported by Upadhyay et al. (2009) are a subtle and reproducible analytical artefact. The absence of negative 142Nd anomalies in these rocks relaxes the need for a mechanism (other than crust formation) that can isolate a Nd reservoir from the convective mantle for billions of years.

Establishing the skill of climate field reconstruction techniques for precipitation with pseudoproxy experiments

This study aims at assessing the skill of several climate field reconstruction techniques (CFR) to reconstruct past precipitation over continental Europe and the Mediterranean at seasonal time scales over the last two millennia from proxy records. A number of pseudoproxy experiments are performed within the virtual reality ofa regional paleoclimate simulation at 45 km resolution to analyse different aspects of reconstruction skill. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), two versions of an Analog Method (AM) and Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) are applied to reconstruct precipitation from a synthetic network of pseudoproxies that are contaminated with various types of noise. The skill of the derived reconstructions is assessed through comparison with precipitation simulated by the regional climate model. Unlike BHM, CCA systematically underestimates the variance. The AM can be adjusted to overcome this shortcoming, presenting an intermediate behaviour between the two aforementioned techniques. However, a trade-off between reconstruction-target correlations and reconstructed variance is the drawback of all CFR techniques. CCA (BHM) presents the largest (lowest) skill in preserving the temporal evolution, whereas the AM can be tuned to reproduce better correlation at the expense of losing variance. While BHM has been shown to perform well for temperatures, it relies heavily on prescribed spatial correlation lengths. While this assumption is valid for temperature, it is hardly warranted for precipitation. In general, none of the methods outperforms the other. All experiments agree that a dense and regularly distributed proxy network is required to reconstruct precipitation accurately, reflecting its high spatial and temporal variability. This is especially true in summer, when a specifically short de-correlation distance from the proxy location is caused by localised summertime convective precipitation events.

Modeling the formation and aging of secondary organic aerosols during CalNex 2010

Four different literature parameterizations for the formation and evolution of urban secondary organic aerosol (SOA) frequently used in 3-D models are evaluated using a 0-D box model representing the Los Angeles metropolitan region during the California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change (CalNex) 2010 campaign. We constrain the model predictions with measurements from several platforms and compare predictions with particle- and gas-phase observations from the CalNex Pasadena ground site. That site provides a unique opportunity to study aerosol formation close to anthropogenic emission sources with limited recirculation. The model SOA that formed only from the oxidation of VOCs (V-SOA) is insufficient to explain the observed SOA concentrations, even when using SOA parameterizations with multi-generation oxidation that produce much higher yields than have been observed in chamber experiments, or when increasing yields to their upper limit estimates accounting for recently reported losses of vapors to chamber walls. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model (version 5.0.1) provides excellent predictions of secondary inorganic particle species but underestimates the observed SOA mass by a factor of 25 when an older VOC-only parameterization is used, which is consistent with many previous model–measurement comparisons for pre-2007 anthropogenic SOA modules in urban areas. Including SOA from primary semi-volatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds (P-S/IVOCs) following the parameterizations of Robinson et al. (2007), Grieshop et al. (2009), or Pye and Seinfeld (2010) improves model–measurement agreement for mass concentration. The results from the three parameterizations show large differences (e.g., a factor of 3 in SOA mass) and are not well constrained, underscoring the current uncertainties in this area. Our results strongly suggest that other precursors besides VOCs, such as P-S/IVOCs, are needed to explain the observed SOA concentrations in Pasadena. All the recent parameterizations overpredict urban SOA formation at long photochemical ages (3 days) compared to observations from multiple sites, which can lead to problems in regional and especially global modeling. However, reducing IVOC emissions by one-half in the model to better match recent IVOC measurements improves SOA predictions at these long photochemical ages. Among the explicitly modeled VOCs, the precursor compounds that contribute the greatest SOA mass are methylbenzenes. Measured polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (naphthalenes) contribute 0.7% of the modeled SOA mass. The amounts of SOA mass from diesel vehicles, gasoline vehicles, and cooking emissions are estimated to be 16–27, 35–61, and 19–35 %, respectively, depending on the parameterization used, which is consistent with the observed fossil fraction of urban SOA, 71(+-3) %. The relative contribution of each source is uncertain by almost a factor of 2 depending on the parameterization used. In-basin biogenic VOCs are predicted to contribute only a few percent to SOA. A regional SOA background of approximately 2.1 μgm-3 is also present due to the long-distance transport of highly aged OA, likely with a substantial contribution from regional biogenic SOA. The percentage of SOA from diesel vehicle emissions is the same, within the estimated uncertainty, as reported in previous work that analyzed the weekly cycles in OA concentrations (Bahreini et al., 2012; Hayes et al., 2013). However, the modeling work presented here suggests a strong anthropogenic source of modern carbon in SOA, due to cooking emissions, which was not accounted for in those previous studies and which is higher on weekends. Lastly, this work adapts a simple two-parameter model to predict SOA concentration and O/C from urban emissions. This model successfully predicts SOA concentration, and the optimal parameter combination is very similar to that found for Mexico City. This approach provides a computationally inexpensive method for predicting urban SOA in global and climate models. We estimate pollution SOA to account for 26 Tg yr-1 of SOA globally, or 17% of global SOA, one third of which is likely to be non-fossil.

On the seasonal variations of salinity of the tropical Atlantic mixed layer

The physical processes controlling the mixed layer salinity (MLS) seasonal budget in the tropical Atlantic Ocean are investigated using a regional configuration of an ocean general circulation model. The analysis reveals that the MLS cycle is generally weak in comparison of individual physical processes entering in the budget because of strong compensation. In evaporative regions, around the surface salinity maxima, the ocean acts to freshen the mixed layer against the action of evaporation. Poleward of the southern SSS maxima, the freshening is ensured by geostrophic advection, the vertical salinity diffusion and, during winter, a dominant contribution of the convective entrainment. On the equatorward flanks of the SSS maxima, Ekman transport mainly contributes to supply freshwater from ITCZ regions while vertical salinity diffusion adds on the effect of evaporation. All these terms are phase locked through the effect of the wind. Under the seasonal march of the ITCZ and in coastal areas affected by river (7°S:15°N), the upper ocean freshening by precipitations and/or runoff is attenuated by vertical salinity diffusion. In the eastern equatorial regions, seasonal cycle of wind forced surface currents advect freshwaters, which are mixed with subsurface saline water because of the strong vertical turbulent diffusion. In all these regions, the vertical diffusion presents an important contribution to the MLS budget by providing, in general, an upwelling flux of salinity. It is generally due to vertical salinity gradient and mixing due to winds. Furthermore, in the equator where the vertical shear, associated to surface horizontal currents, is developed, the diffusion depends also on the sheared flow stability.

The Quiet Eye and Information Processing: Facilitation of Stimulus Identification and Response Selection

Background: A prerequisite for high performance in motor tasks is the acquisition of egocentric sensory information that must be translated into motor actions. A phenomenon that supports this process is the Quiet Eye (QE) defined as long final fixation before movement initiation. It is assumed that the QE facilitates information processing, particularly regarding movement parameterization. Aims: The question remains whether this facilitation also holds for the information-processing stage of response selection and – related to perception crucial – stage of stimulus identification. Method: In two experiments with sport science students, performance-enhancing effects of experimentally manipulated QE durations were tested as a function of target position predictability and target visibility, thereby selectively manipulating response selection and stimulus identification demands, respectively. Results: The results support the hypothesis of facilitated information processing through long QE durations since in both experiments performance-enhancing effects of long QE durations were found under increased processing demands only. In Experiment 1, QE duration affected performance only if the target position was not predictable and positional information had to be processed over the QE period. In Experiment 2, in a full vs. no target visibility comparison with saccades to the upcoming target position induced by flicker cues, the functionality of a long QE duration depended on the visual stimulus identification period as soon as the interval falls below a certain threshold. Conclusions: The results corroborate earlier findings that QE efficiency depends on demands put on the visuomotor system, thereby furthering the assumption that the phenomenon supports the processes of sensorimotor integration.

Hygroscopic growth of atmospheric aerosol particles based on active remote sensing and radiosounding measurements: selected cases in southeastern Spain

A new methodology based on combining active and passive remote sensing and simultaneous and collocated radiosounding data to study the aerosol hygroscopic growth effects on the particle optical and microphysical properties is presented. The identification of hygroscopic growth situations combines the analysis of multispectral aerosol particle backscatter coefficient and particle linear depolarization ratio with thermodynamic profiling of the atmospheric column. We analyzed the hygroscopic growth effects on aerosol properties, namely the aerosol particle backscatter coefficient and the volume concentration profiles, using data gathered at Granada EARLINET station. Two study cases, corresponding to different aerosol loads and different aerosol types, are used for illustrating the potential of this methodology. Values of the aerosol particle backscatter coefficient enhancement factors range from 2.1 ± 0.8 to 3.9 ± 1.5, in the ranges of relative humidity 60–90 and 40–83%, being similar to those previously reported in the literature. Differences in the enhancement factor are directly linked to the composition of the atmospheric aerosol. The largest value of the aerosol particle backscatter coefficient enhancement factor corresponds to the presence of sulphate and marine particles that are more affected by hygroscopic growth. On the contrary, the lowest value of the enhancement factor corresponds to an aerosol mixture containing sulphates and slight traces of mineral dust. The Hänel parameterization is applied to these case studies, obtaining results within the range of values reported in previous studies, with values of the γ exponent of 0.56 ± 0.01 (for anthropogenic particles slightly influenced by mineral dust) and 1.07 ± 0.01 (for the situation dominated by anthropogenic particles), showing the convenience of this remote sensing approach for the study of hygroscopic effects of the atmospheric aerosol under ambient unperturbed conditions. For the first time, the retrieval of the volume concentration profiles for these cases using the Lidar Radiometer Inversion Code (LIRIC) allows us to analyze the aerosol hygroscopic growth effects on aerosol volume concentration, observing a stronger increase of the fine mode volume concentration with increasing relative humidity.

Study of mineral dust entrainment in the planetary boundary layer by lidar depolarisation technique

Measurements on 27 June 2011 were performed over the Southern Iberian Peninsula at Granada EARLINET station, using active and passive remote sensing and airborne and surface in-situ data in order to study the entrainment processes between aerosols in the free troposphere and those in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). To this aim the temporal evolution of the lidar depolarisation, backscatter-related Angström exponent and potential temperature profiles were used in combination with the PBL contribution to the aerosol optical depth (AOD). Our results show that the mineral dust entrainment in the PBL was caused by the convective processes which ‘trapped’ the lofted mineral dust layer, distributing the mineral dust particles within the PBL. The temporal evolution of ground-based in-situ data evidenced the impact of this process at surface level. Finally, the amount of mineral dust in the atmospheric column available to be dispersed into the PBL was estimated by means of POLIPHON (Polarizing Lidar Photometer Networking). The dust mass concentration derived from POLIPHON was compared with the coarse-mode mass concentration retrieved with airborne in-situ measurements. Comparison shows differences below 50 µg/m³ (30% relative difference) indicating a relative good agreement between both techniques.

Comparative carbon cycle dynamics of the present and last interglacial

Changes in temperature and carbon dioxide during glacial cycles recorded in Antarctic ice cores are tightly coupled. However, this relationship does not hold for interglacials. While climate cooled towards the end of both the last (Eemian) and present (Holocene) interglacials, CO₂ remained stable during the Eemian while rising in the Holocene. We identify and review twelve biogeochemical mechanisms of terrestrial (vegetation dynamics and CO₂ fertilization, land use, wild fire, accumulation of peat, changes in permafrost carbon, subaerial volcanic outgassing) and marine origin (changes in sea surface temperature, carbonate compensation to deglaciation and terrestrial biosphere regrowth, shallow-water carbonate sedimentation, changes in the soft tissue pump, and methane hydrates), which potentially may have contributed to the CO₂ dynamics during interglacials but which remain not well quantified. We use three Earth System Models (ESMs) of intermediate complexity to compare effects of selected mechanisms on the interglacial CO₂ and δ¹³ CO₂ changes, focusing on those with substantial potential impacts: namely carbonate sedimentation in shallow waters, peat growth, and (in the case of the Holocene) human land use. A set of specified carbon cycle forcings could qualitatively explain atmospheric CO₂ dynamics from 8ka BP to the pre-industrial. However, when applied to Eemian boundary conditions from 126 to 115 ka BP, the same set of forcings led to disagreement with the observed direction of CO₂ changes after 122 ka BP. This failure to simulate late-Eemian CO₂ dynamics could be a result of the imposed forcings such as prescribed CaCO₃ accumulation and/or an incorrect response of simulated terrestrial carbon to the surface cooling at the end of the interglacial. These experiments also reveal that key natural processes of interglacial CO₂ dynamics eshallow water CaCO₃ accumulation, peat and permafrost carbon dynamics are not well represented in the current ESMs. Global-scale modeling of these long-term carbon cycle components started only in the last decade, and uncertainty in parameterization of these mechanisms is a main limitation in the successful modeling of interglacial CO₂ dynamics.

Increasing Scientific Confidence in Adverse Outcome Pathways: Application of Tailored Bradford-Hill Considerations for Evaluating Weight of Evidence.

Systematic consideration of scientific support is a critical element in developing and, ultimately, using adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for various regulatory applications. Though weight of evidence (WoE) analysis has been proposed as a basis for assessment of the maturity and level of confidence in an AOP, methodologies and tools are still being formalized. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Users' Handbook Supplement to the Guidance Document for Developing and Assessing AOPs (OECD 2014a; hereafter referred to as the OECD AOP Handbook) provides tailored Bradford-Hill (BH) considerations for systematic assessment of confidence in a given AOP. These considerations include (1) biological plausibility and (2) empirical support (dose-response, temporality, and incidence) for Key Event Relationships (KERs), and (3) essentiality of key events (KEs). Here, we test the application of these tailored BH considerations and the guidance outlined in the OECD AOP Handbook using a number of case examples to increase experience in more transparently documenting rationales for assigned levels of confidence to KEs and KERs, and to promote consistency in evaluation within and across AOPs. The major lessons learned from experience are documented, and taken together with the case examples, should contribute to better common understanding of the nature and form of documentation required to increase confidence in the application of AOPs for specific uses. Based on the tailored BH considerations and defining questions, a prototype quantitative model for assessing the WoE of an AOP using tools of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is described. The applicability of the approach is also demonstrated using the case example aromatase inhibition leading to reproductive dysfunction in fish. Following the acquisition of additional experience in the development and assessment of AOPs, further refinement of parameterization of the model through expert elicitation is recommended. Overall, the application of quantitative WoE approaches hold promise to enhance the rigor, transparency and reproducibility for AOP WoE determinations and may play an important role in delineating areas where research would have the greatest impact on improving the overall confidence in the AOP.