Climatic drivers of hourly to yearly tree radius variations along a 6°C natural warming gradient

Climate affects the timing, rate and dynamics of tree growth, over time scales ranging from seconds to centuries. Monitoring how a tree's stem radius varies over these time scales can provide insight into intra-annual stem dynamics and improve our understanding of climate impacts on tree physiology and growth processes. Here, we quantify the response of radial conifer stem size to environmental fluctuations via a novel assessment of tree circadian cycles. We analyze four years of sub-hourly data collected from 56 larch and spruce trees growing along a natural temperature gradient of ∼6 °C in the central Swiss Alps. During the growing season, tree stem diameters were greatest at mid-morning and smallest in the late evening, reflecting the daily cycle of water uptake and loss. Along the gradient, amplitudes calculated from the stem radius cycle were ∼50% smaller at the upper site (∼2200 m a.s.l.) relative to the lower site (∼800 m a.s.l.). We show changes in precipitation, temperature and cloud cover have a substantial effect on typical growing season diurnal cycles; amplitudes were nine times smaller on rainy days (>10 mm), and daily amplitudes are approximately 40% larger when the mean daily temperature is 15–20 °C than when it is 5–10 °C. We find that over the growing season in the sub-alpine forests, spruce show greater daily stem water movement than larch. However, under projected future warming, larch could experience up to 50% greater stem water use, which may severely affect future growth on already dry sites. Our data further indicate that because of the confounding influences of radial growth and short-term water dynamics on stem size, conventional methodology probably overstates the effect of water-linked meteorological variables (i.e. precipitation and relative humidity) on intra-annual tree growth. We suggest future studies use intra-seasonal measurements of cell development and consider whether climatic factors produce reversible changes in stem diameter. These study design elements may help researchers more accurately quantify and attribute changes in forest productivity in response to future warming.

Socioeconomic, Temporal and Regional Variation in Body Mass Index among 188,537 Swiss Male Conscripts Born between 1986 and 1992

BACKGROUND Rising levels of overweight and obesity are important public-health concerns worldwide. The purpose of this study is to elucidate their prevalence and trends in Switzerland by analyzing variations in Body Mass Index (BMI) of Swiss conscripts. METHODS The conscription records were provided by the Swiss Army. This study focussed on conscripts 18.5-20.5 years of age from the seven one-year birth cohorts spanning the period 1986-1992. BMI across professional status, area-based socioeconomic position (abSEP), urbanicity and regions was analyzed. Two piecewise quantile regression models with linear splines for three birth-cohort groups were used to examine the association of median BMI with explanatory variables and to determine the extent to which BMI has varied over time. RESULTS The study population consisted of 188,537 individuals. Median BMI was 22.51 kg/m2 (22.45-22.57 95% confidence interval (CI)). BMI was lower among conscripts of high professional status (-0.46 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.50, -0.42, compared with low), living in areas of high abSEP (-0.11 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.16, -0.07 compared to medium) and from urban communities (-0.07 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.11, -0.03, compared with peri-urban). Comparing with Midland, median BMI was highest in the North-West (0.25 kg/m2; 95% CI: 0.19-0.30) and Central regions (0.11 kg/m2; 95% CI: 0.05-0.16) and lowest in the East (-0.19 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.24, -0.14) and Lake Geneva regions (-0.15 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.20, -0.09). Trajectories of regional BMI growth varied across birth cohorts, with median BMI remaining high in the Central and North-West regions, whereas stabilization and in some cases a decline were observed elsewhere. CONCLUSIONS BMI of Swiss conscripts is associated with individual and abSEP and urbanicity. Results show regional variation in the levels and temporal trajectories of BMI growth and signal their possible slowdown among recent birth cohorts.

The dating of dipterocarp tree rings: establishing a record of carbon cycling and climatic change in the tropics

In a first step to obtain a proxy record of past climatic events (including the El Ni (n) over tildeo-Southern Oscillation) in the normally aseasonal tropical environment of Sabah, a radial segment from a recently fallen dipterocarp (Shorea Superba) was radiocarbon dated and subjected to carbon isotope analysis. The high-precision radiocarbon results fell into the ambiguous modern plateau where several calibrated dates can exist for each sample. Dating was achieved by wiggle matching using a Bayesian approach to calibration. Using the defined growth characteristics of Shorea superba, probability density distributions were calculated and improbable dates rejected. It was found that the tree most likely started growing around AD 1660-1685. A total of 173 apparent growth increments were measured and, therefore, it could be determined that the tree formed one ring approximately every two years. Stable carbon isotope values were obtained from resin-extracted wholewood from each ring. Carbon cycling is evident in the `juvenile effect', resulting from the assimilation of respired carbon dioxide and lower light levels below the canopy, and in the `anthropogenic effect' caused by increased industrial activity in the late-nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This study demonstrates that palaeoenvironmental information can be obtained from trees growing in aseasonal environments, where climatic conditions prevent the formation of well-defined annual rings.

Climatic and anthropogenic changes in Western Switzerland: Impacts on water stress

Recent observed hydro-climatic changes in mountainous areas are of concern as they may directly affect capacity to fulfill water needs. The canton of Vaud in Western Switzerland is an example of such a region as it has experienced water shortage episodes during the past decade. Based on an integrated modeling framework, this study explores how hydro-climatic conditions and water needs could evolve in mountain environments and assesses their potential impacts on water stress by the 2060 horizon. Flows were simulated based on a daily semi-distributed hydrological model. Future changes were derived from Swiss climate scenarios based on two regional climate models. Regarding water needs, the authorities of the canton of Vaud provided a population growth scenario while irrigation and livestock trends followed a business-as-usual scenario. Currently, the canton of Vaud experiences moderate water stress from June to August, except in its Alpine area where no stress is noted. In the 2060 horizon, water needs could exceed 80% of the rivers' available resources in low- to mid-altitude environments in mid-summer. This arises from the combination of drier and warmer climate that leads to longer and more severe low flows, and increasing urban (+ 40%) and irrigation (+ 25%) water needs. Highlighting regional differences supports the development of sustainable development pathways to reduce water tensions. Based on a quantitative assessment, this study also calls for broader impact studies including water quality issues.

Exploring Growth Variability and Crown Vitality of Sessile Oak (Quercus Petraea) in the Czech Republic

Unraveling climatic effects on growth of oak - Europe’s most ecologically and economically important forest species - has been the subject of many recent studies; however, more insight based on field data is necessary to better understand the relationship between climate and tree growth and to adapt forest management strategies to future climate change. In this report, we explore the influence of temperature, precipitation and drought variability on the productivity and vitality of oak stands in the Czech Highlands. We collected 180 cores from mature oaks (Quercus petraea) at four forest stands in the Czech Drahany Highlands. Standard dendromethods were used for sample preparation, ring width measurements, cross-dating, chronology development, and the assessment of growth-climate response patterns. Crown vitality was also evaluated, using the modified ICP Forests methodology. Late spring precipitation totals between May and June as well as the mean July temperature for the year of ring formation were found to be the most important factors for oak growth, whereas crown condition was significantly affected by spring and summer drought. This study is rep-resentative for similar bio-ecological habitats across Central Europe and can serve as a dendroclima-tological blueprint for earlier periods for which detailed meteorological information is missing .

Human and climatic impact on mires: a case study of Les Amburnex mire, Swiss Jura Mountains

Modern period long-term human and climatic impacts on a small mire in the Jura Mountains were assessed using testate amoebae, macrofossils and pollen. This multiproxy data analysis permitted detailed interpretations of local and regional environmental change and thus a partial disentanglement of the different variables that influence long-term mire development. From the Middle Ages until a.d. 1700 the mire vegetation was characterised by ferns, Caltha and Vaccinium, but then abruptly changed into the modern vegetation characterised by Cyperaceae, Potentilla and Sphagnum. The cause for this change was most probably deforestation, possibly enhanced by climatic cooling. A decrease in trampling intensity by domestic animals from a.d. 1950 onwards allowed Sphagnum growth and climatic warming in the a.d. 1980s and 1990s may have been responsible for considerable changes in the species composition. The mire investigated is an example of the rapid changes in mire vegetation and peat development that occurred throughout the central European mountain region during the past centuries as a result of changing climate and land-use practice. These processes are still active today and will determine the future development of high-altitude mires.

Climatic change and contemporaneous land-use phases north and south of the Alps 2300 BC to 800 AD

Fluctuations in the Δ14C curve and subsequent gaps of archaeological findings at 800–650 and 400–100 BC in western and central Europe may indicate major climate-driven land-abandonment phases. To address this hypothesis radiocarbon-dated sediments from four lakes in Switzerland were studied palynologically. Pollen analysis indicates contemporaneous phases of forest clearances and of intensified land-use at 1450–1250 BC, 650–450 BC, 50 BC–100 AD and around 700 AD. These land-use expansions coincided with periods of warm climate as recorded by the Alpine dendroclimatic and Greenland oxygen isotope records. Our results suggest that harvest yields would have increased synchronously over wide areas of central and southern Europe during periods of warm and dry climate. Combined interpretation of palaeoecological and archaeological findings suggests that higher food production led to increased human populations. Positive long-term trends in pollen values of Cerealia and Plantago lanceolata indicate that technical innovations during the Bronze and Iron Age (e.g. metal ploughs, scythes, hay production, fertilising methods) gradually increased agricultural productivity. The successful adoption of yield-increasing advances cannot be explained by climatic determinism alone. Combined with archaeological evidence, our results suggest that despite considerable cycles of spatial and demographic reorganisation (repeated land abandonments and expansions, as well as large-scale migrations and population decreases), human societies were able to shift to lower subsistence levels without dramatic ruptures in material culture. However, our data imply that human societies were not able to compensate rapidly for harvest failures when climate deteriorated. Agriculture in marginal areas was abandoned, and spontaneous reforestations took place on abandoned land south and north of the Alps. Only when the climate changed again to drier and warmer conditions did a new wide-spread phase of forest clearances and field extensions occur, allowing the reoccupation of previously abandoned areas. Spatial distribution of cereal cultivation and growth requirements of Cerealia species suggest that increases in precipitation were far more decisive in driving crop failures over central and southern Europe than temperature decreases.

Metamorphosis of human lumbar vertebrae induced by VEPTR growth modulation and stress shielding

INTRODUCTION Distraction-based spinal growth modulation by growing rods or vertical expandable prosthetic titanium ribs (VEPTRs) is the mainstay of instrumented operative strategies to correct early onset spinal deformities. In order to objectify the benefits, it has become common sense to measure the gain in spine height by assessing T1-S1 distance on anteroposterior (AP) radiographs. However, by ignoring growth changes on vertebral levels and by limiting measurement to one plane, valuable data is missed regarding the three-dimensional (3D) effects of growth modulation. This information might be interesting when it comes to final fusion or, even more so, when the protective growing implants are removed and the spine re-exposed to physiologic forces at the end of growth. METHODS The goal of this retrospective radiographic study was to assess the growth modulating impact of year-long, distraction-based VEPTR treatment on the morphology of single vertebral bodies. We digitally measured lumbar vertebral body height (VBH) and upper endplate depth (VBD) at the time of the index procedure and at follow-up in nine patients with rib-to-ileum constructs (G1) spanning an anatomically normal lumbar spine. Nine patients with congenital thoracic scoliosis and VEPTR rib-to-rib constructs, but uninstrumented lumbar spines, served as controls (G2). All had undergone more than eight half-yearly VEPTR expansions. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used for statistical comparison of initial and follow-up VBH, VBD and height/depth (H/D) ratio (significance level 0.05). RESULTS The average age was 7.1 years (G1) and 5.2 year (G2, p > 0.05) at initial surgery; the average overall follow-up time was 5.5 years (p = 1). In both groups, VBH increased significantly without a significant intergroup difference. Group 1 did not show significant growth in depth, whereas VBD increased significantly in the control group. As a consequence, the H/D ratio increased significantly in group 1 whereas it remained unchanged in group 2. The growth rate for height in mm/year was 1.4 (group 1) and 1.1 (group 2, p = 0.45), and for depth, it was -0.3 and 1.1 (p < 0.05), respectively. CONCLUSIONS VEPTR growth modulating treatment alters the geometry of vertebral bodies by increasing the H/D ratio. We hypothesize that the implant-related deprivation from axial loads (stress-shielding) impairs anteroposterior growth. The biomechanical consequence of such slender vertebrae when exposed to unprotected loads in case of definitive VEPTR removal at the end of growth is uncertain.

Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 Is an Independent and Specific Predictor of Mortality in Patients With Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction

BACKGROUND Strategies to improve risk prediction are of major importance in patients with heart failure (HF). Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23) is an endocrine regulator of phosphate and vitamin D homeostasis associated with an increased cardiovascular risk. We aimed to assess the prognostic effect of FGF-23 on mortality in HF patients with a particular focus on differences between patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction and patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). METHODS AND RESULTS FGF-23 levels were measured in 980 patients with HF enrolled in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study including 511 patients with HFrEF and 469 patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction and a median follow-up time of 8.6 years. FGF-23 was additionally measured in a second cohort comprising 320 patients with advanced HFrEF. FGF-23 was independently associated with mortality with an adjusted hazard ratio per 1-SD increase of 1.30 (95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.48; P<0.001) in patients with HFrEF, whereas no such association was found in patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction (for interaction, P=0.043). External validation confirmed the significant association with mortality with an adjusted hazard ratio per 1 SD of 1.23 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.60; P=0.027). FGF-23 demonstrated an increased discriminatory power for mortality in addition to N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (C-statistic: 0.59 versus 0.63) and an improvement in net reclassification index (39.6%; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS FGF-23 is independently associated with an increased risk of mortality in patients with HFrEF but not in those with HF with preserved ejection fraction, suggesting a different pathophysiologic role for both entities.

Contrasting growth and water use efficiency after thinning in mixed Abies pinsapo–Pinus pinaster–Pinus sylvestris forests

Foresters frequently lack sufficient information about thinning intensity effects to optimize semi-natural forest management and their effects and interaction with climate are still poorly understood. In an Abies pinsapo–Pinus pinaster–Pinus sylvestris forest with three thinning intensities, a dendrochronologial approach was used to evaluate the short-term responses of basal area increment (BAI), carbon isotope (δ13C) and water use efficiency (iWUE) to thinning intensity and climate. Thinning generally increased BAI in all species, except for the heavy thinning in P. sylvestris. Across all the plots, thinning increased 13C-derived water-use efficiency on average by 14.49% for A. pinsapo, 9.78% for P. sylvestris and 6.68% for P. pinaster, but through different ecophysiological mechanisms. Our findings provide a robust mean of predicting water use efficiency responses from three coniferous species exposed to different thinning strategies which have been modulated by climatic conditions over time.

Effects of divergent selection for growth on egg quality traits in Japanese quail

The experiment was designed to investigate the impact of selection for increased body mass on external and internal egg quality traits of Japanese quail. Three hundred and sixty Japanese quail, divergently selected over three generations for different body mass at 4 weeks of age, were used. Quail were homogeneously divided into three groups each consisting of 120 birds: high body mass (HBM), low body mass (LBM) and Control. ANOVA was used to detect the effect of selection on egg quality. In addition, correlation between external and internal egg quality traits was measured. Our results revealed thatHBMquail laid heavier eggs (P = 0.03 compared with LBM but not significantly different with Control quail) with a higher external (shell thickness, shell weight, eggshell ratio and eggshell density, P = 0.0001) and internal egg quality score (albumen weight, P = 0.003; albumen ratio, P = 0.01; albumen height, yolk height, yolk index and Haugh unit, P = 0.0001) when compared with both the Control and LBM. The egg surface area and yolk diameter were significantly higher in HBM when compared with the LBM but not with the Control line. Egg weight was positively correlated with albumen weight (r = 0.54, P = 0.0001), albumen ratio (r = 0.14, P = 0.05), yolk height (r = 0.27, P = 0.0001), yolk weight (r = 0.23, P = 0.002), yolk diameter (r = 0.14, P = 0.05) and yolk index (r = 0.21, P = 0.005) but was negatively correlated with yolk ratio (r = –0.16, P = 0.03). Our results indicate that selection for higher body mass might result in heavier eggs and superior egg quality.

Fibroblast growth factor 23 and markers of mineral metabolism in individuals with preserved renal function

Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) is a bone-derived hormone that regulates phosphate homeostasis. Circulating FGF23 is elevated in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and independently associated with poor renal and cardiovascular outcomes and mortality. Because the study of FGF23 in individuals with normal renal function has received little attention, we examined in a large, population based study of 1128 participants the associations of FGF23 with markers of mineral metabolism and renal function. The median estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of the cohort was 105 ml/min per 1.73 m2, and the median plasma FGF23 was 78.5 RU/ml. FGF23 increased and plasma 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 decreased significantly below an eGFR threshold of 102 and 99 ml/min per 1.73 m2, respectively. In contrast, plasma parathyroid hormone increased continuously with decreasing eGFR and was first significantly elevated at an eGFR of 126 ml/min per 1.73 m2. On multivariable analysis adjusting for sex, age, body mass index, and GFR, FGF23 was negatively associated with 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3, and urinary absolute and fractional calcium excretion but not with serum calcium or parathyroid hormone. We found a positive association of FGF23 with plasma phosphate, but no association with urinary absolute or fractional phosphate excretion and, unexpectedly, a positive association with tubular maximum phosphate reabsorption/GFR. Thus, in the absence of CKD, parathyroid hormone increases earlier than FGF23 when the eGFR decreases. The increase in FGF23 occurs at a higher eGFR threshold than previously reported and is closely associated with a decrease in 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3. We speculate that the main demonstrable effect of FGF23 in the setting of preserved renal function is suppression of 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 rather than stimulation of renal phosphate excretion.