ON THE STABILITY OF SUPER-EARTH ATMOSPHERES

We investigate the stability of super-Earth atmospheres around M stars using a seven-parameter, analytical framework. We construct stability diagrams in the parameter space of exoplanetary radius versus semimajor axis and elucidate the regions in which the atmospheres are stable against the condensation of their major constituents, out of the gas phase, on their permanent nightside hemispheres. We find that super-Earth atmospheres that are nitrogen-dominated (Earth-like) occupy a smaller region of allowed parameter space, compared to hydrogen-dominated atmospheres, because of the dual effects of diminished advection and enhanced radiative cooling. Furthermore, some super-Earths which reside within the habitable zones of M stars may not possess stable atmospheres, depending on the mean molecular weight and infrared photospheric pressure of their atmospheres. We apply our stability diagrams to GJ 436b and GJ 1214b, and demonstrate that atmospheric compositions with high mean molecular weights are disfavored if these exoplanets possess solid surfaces and shallow atmospheres. Finally, we construct stability diagrams tailored to the Kepler data set, for G and K stars, and predict that about half of the exoplanet candidates are expected to harbor stable atmospheres if Earth-like conditions are assumed. We include 55 Cancri e and CoRoT-7b in our stability diagram for G stars

Tracer profiles across argillaceous formations: A tool to constrain transport processes.

The spatial distributions of non-reactive natural tracers (anions, stable water isotopes, noble gases) in pore water of clay-rich formations were studied at nine sites. Regular curved profiles were identified in most cases. Transport modeling considering diffusion, advection and available constraints on the paleo-hydrogeological evolution indicates generally that diffusion alone can explain the observations, whereas a marked advective component would distort the profiles and so is not consistent with the data.

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

With the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. However, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, pH, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. Among these, the net primary productivity (NPP) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective. Indeed, in regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N–30°S), NPP exhibits natural fluctuations at interannual to decadal timescales that have large impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Here, we investigate predictions of NPP variations over the last decades (i.e., from 1997 to 2011) with an Earth system model within the tropical Pacific. Results suggest a predictive skill for NPP of 3 y, which is higher than that of sea surface temperature (1 y). We attribute the higher predictability of NPP to the poleward advection of nutrient anomalies (nitrate and iron), which sustain fluctuations in phytoplankton productivity over several years. These results open previously unidentified perspectives to the development of science-based management approaches to marine resources relying on integrated physical-biogeochemical forecasting systems.

The diurnal variation in stratospheric ozone from the MACC reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, WACCM and Earth observations: characteristics and intercomparison

In this study we compare the diurnal variation in stratospheric ozone derived from free-running simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and from reanalysis data of the atmospheric service MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) which both use a similar stratospheric chemistry module. We find good agreement between WACCM and the MACC reanalysis for the diurnal ozone variation in the high-latitude summer stratosphere based on photochemistry. In addition, we consult the ozone data product of the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The ERA-Interim reanalysis ozone system with its long-term ozone parametrization can not capture these diurnal variations in the upper stratosphere that are due to photochemistry. The good dynamics representations, however, reflects well dynamically induced ozone variations in the lower stratosphere. For the high-latitude winter stratosphere we describe a novel feature of diurnal variation in ozone where changes of up to 46.6% (3.3 ppmv) occur in monthly mean data. For this effect good agreement between the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the MACC reanalysis suggest quite similar diurnal advection processes of ozone. The free-running WACCM model seriously underestimates the role of diurnal advection processes at the polar vortex at the two tested resolutions. The intercomparison of the MACC reanalysis and the ERA-Interim reanalysis demonstrates how global reanalyses can benefit from a chemical representation held by a chemical transport model. The MACC reanalysis provides an unprecedented description of the dynamics and photochemistry of the diurnal variation of stratospheric ozone which is of high interest for ozone trend analysis and research on atmospheric tides. We confirm the diurnal variation in ozone at 5 hPa by observations of the Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave Limb-Emission Sounder (SMILES) experiment and selected sites of the Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). The latter give valuable insight even to diurnal variation of ozone in the polar winter stratosphere.

An adaptive Newton-method based on a dynamical systems approach

The traditional Newton method for solving nonlinear operator equations in Banach spaces is discussed within the context of the continuous Newton method. This setting makes it possible to interpret the Newton method as a discrete dynamical system and thereby to cast it in the framework of an adaptive step size control procedure. In so doing, our goal is to reduce the chaotic behavior of the original method without losing its quadratic convergence property close to the roots. The performance of the modified scheme is illustrated with various examples from algebraic and differential equations.

A numerical model for inert gas transport in the lung based on fractal airway morphology

Patients suffering from cystic fibrosis (CF) show thick secretions, mucus plugging and bronchiectasis in bronchial and alveolar ducts. This results in substantial structural changes of the airway morphology and heterogeneous ventilation. Disease progression and treatment effects are monitored by so-called gas washout tests, where the change in concentration of an inert gas is measured over a single or multiple breaths. The result of the tests based on the profile of the measured concentration is a marker for the severity of the ventilation inhomogeneity strongly affected by the airway morphology. However, it is hard to localize underlying obstructions to specific parts of the airways, especially if occurring in the lung periphery. In order to support the analysis of lung function tests (e.g. multi-breath washout), we developed a numerical model of the entire airway tree, coupling a lumped parameter model for the lung ventilation with a 4th-order accurate finite difference model of a 1D advection-diffusion equation for the transport of an inert gas. The boundary conditions for the flow problem comprise the pressure and flow profile at the mouth, which is typically known from clinical washout tests. The natural asymmetry of the lung morphology is approximated by a generic, fractal, asymmetric branching scheme which we applied for the conducting airways. A conducting airway ends when its dimension falls below a predefined limit. A model acinus is then connected to each terminal airway. The morphology of an acinus unit comprises a network of expandable cells. A regional, linear constitutive law describes the pressure-volume relation between the pleural gap and the acinus. The cyclic expansion (breathing) of each acinus unit depends on the resistance of the feeding airway and on the flow resistance and stiffness of the cells themselves. Special care was taken in the development of a conservative numerical scheme for the gas transport across bifurcations, handling spatially and temporally varying advective and diffusive fluxes over a wide range of scales. Implicit time integration was applied to account for the numerical stiffness resulting from the discretized transport equation. Local or regional modification of the airway dimension, resistance or tissue stiffness are introduced to mimic pathological airway restrictions typical for CF. This leads to a more heterogeneous ventilation of the model lung. As a result the concentration in some distal parts of the lung model remains increased for a longer duration. The inert gas concentration at the mouth towards the end of the expirations is composed of gas from regions with very different washout efficiency. This results in a steeper slope of the corresponding part of the washout profile.

On the seasonal variations of salinity of the tropical Atlantic mixed layer

The physical processes controlling the mixed layer salinity (MLS) seasonal budget in the tropical Atlantic Ocean are investigated using a regional configuration of an ocean general circulation model. The analysis reveals that the MLS cycle is generally weak in comparison of individual physical processes entering in the budget because of strong compensation. In evaporative regions, around the surface salinity maxima, the ocean acts to freshen the mixed layer against the action of evaporation. Poleward of the southern SSS maxima, the freshening is ensured by geostrophic advection, the vertical salinity diffusion and, during winter, a dominant contribution of the convective entrainment. On the equatorward flanks of the SSS maxima, Ekman transport mainly contributes to supply freshwater from ITCZ regions while vertical salinity diffusion adds on the effect of evaporation. All these terms are phase locked through the effect of the wind. Under the seasonal march of the ITCZ and in coastal areas affected by river (7°S:15°N), the upper ocean freshening by precipitations and/or runoff is attenuated by vertical salinity diffusion. In the eastern equatorial regions, seasonal cycle of wind forced surface currents advect freshwaters, which are mixed with subsurface saline water because of the strong vertical turbulent diffusion. In all these regions, the vertical diffusion presents an important contribution to the MLS budget by providing, in general, an upwelling flux of salinity. It is generally due to vertical salinity gradient and mixing due to winds. Furthermore, in the equator where the vertical shear, associated to surface horizontal currents, is developed, the diffusion depends also on the sheared flow stability.

In-situ, satellite measurement and model evidence on the dominant regional contribution to fine particulate matter levels in the Paris Megacity

A detailed characterization of air quality in the megacity of Paris (France) during two 1-month intensive campaigns and from additional 1-year observations revealed that about 70% of the urban background fine particulate matter (PM) is transported on average into the megacity from upwind regions. This dominant influence of regional sources was confirmed by in situ measurements during short intensive and longer-term campaigns, aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from ENVISAT, and modeling results from PMCAMx and CHIMERE chemistry transport models. While advection of sulfate is well documented for other megacities, there was surprisingly high contribution from long-range transport for both nitrate and organic aerosol. The origin of organic PM was investigated by comprehensive analysis of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS), radiocarbon and tracer measurements during two intensive campaigns. Primary fossil fuel combustion emissions constituted less than 20%in winter and 40%in summer of carbonaceous fine PM, unexpectedly small for a megacity. Cooking activities and, during winter, residential wood burning are the major primary organic PM sources. This analysis suggests that the major part of secondary organic aerosol is of modern origin, i.e., from biogenic precursors and from wood burning. Black carbon concentrations are on the lower end of values encountered in megacities worldwide, but still represent an issue for air quality. These comparatively low air pollution levels are due to a combination of low emissions per inhabitant, flat terrain, and a meteorology that is in general not conducive to local pollution build-up. This revised picture of a megacity only being partially responsible for its own average and peak PM levels has important implications for air pollution regulation policies.

The Early Spörer Minimum – A Period of Extraordinary Climate and Socio-economic Changes in Western and Central Europe

Throughout the last millennium, mankind was affected by prolonged deviations from the climate mean state. While periods like the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century have been assessed in greater detail, earlier cold periods such as the 15th century received much less attention due to the sparse information available. Based on new evidence from different sources ranging from proxy archives to model simulations, it is now possible to provide an end-to-end assessment about the climate state during an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century, the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping these extreme climatic conditions, and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in Central Europe. Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and human archives indicate that, during winter, the period of the early Spörer Minimum (1431–1440 CE) was the coldest decade in Central Europe in the 15th century. The particularly cold winters and normal but wet summers resulted in a strong seasonal cycle that challenged food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis, and a famine in parts of Europe. As a consequence, authorities implemented adaptation measures, such as the installation of grain storage capacities, in order to be prepared for future events. The 15th century is characterised by a grand solar minimum and enhanced volcanic activity, which both imply a reduction of seasonality. Climate model simulations show that periods with cold winters and strong seasonality are associated with internal climate variability rather than external forcing. Accordingly, it is hypothesised that the reconstructed extreme climatic conditions during this decade occurred by chance and in relation to the partly chaotic, internal variability within the climate system.

Constraints on the thermal evolution of the Adriatic margin during Jurassic continental break-up: U–Pb dating of rutile from the Ivrea–Verbano Zone, Italy

The Ivrea–Verbano Zone (IVZ), northern Italy, exposes an attenuated section through the Permian lower crust that records high-temperature metamorphism under lower crustal conditions and a protracted history of extension and exhumation associated partly with the Jurassic opening of the Alpine Tethys ocean. This study presents SHRIMP U–Pb geochronology of rutile from seven granulite facies metapelites from the base of the IVZ, collected from locations spanning ~35 km along the strike of Paleozoic fabrics. Rutile crystallised during Permian high-temperature metamorphism and anatexis, yet all samples give Jurassic rutile U–Pb ages that record cooling through 650–550 °C. Rutile age distributions are dominated by a peak at ~160 Ma, with a subordinate peak at ~175 Ma. Both ~160 and ~175 Ma age populations show excellent agreement between samples, indicating that the two distinctive cooling stages they record were synchronous on a regional scale. The ~175 Ma population is interpreted to record cooling in the footwall of rift-related faults and shear zones, for which widespread activity in the Lower Jurassic has been documented along the western margin of the Adriatic plate. The ~160 Ma age population postdates the activity of all known rift-related structures within the Adriatic margin, but coincides with extensive gabbroic magmatism and exhumation of sub-continental mantle to the floor of the Alpine Tethys, west of the Ivrea Zone. We propose that this ~160 Ma early post-rift age population records regional cooling following episodic heating of the distal Adriatic margin, likely related to extreme lithospheric thinning and associated advection of the asthenosphere to shallow levels. The partial preservation of the ~175 Ma age cluster suggests that the post-rift (~160 Ma) heating pulse was of short duration. The regional consistency of the data presented here, which is in contrast to many other thermochronometers in the IVZ, demonstrates the value of the rutile U–Pb technique for probing the thermal evolution of high-grade metamorphic terrains. In the IVZ, a significant decoupling between Zr-in-rutile temperatures and U–Pb ages of rutile is observed, with the two systems recording events ~120 Ma apart.